Court block early voting inevu ohio. Next they may rule on the voter i. D. Law in wisconsin. And the court could also decide whether to restore antivoting measures in North Carolina. No matter how the court rules, we cant get discouraged. We have to fight for every vote. Thanks for watching. Im al sharpton. Hardball starts right now. Four tuesdays from now. Lets play hardball. Good evening, im Chris Matthews in washington. I promised you a big inside look at the 2014 election tonight. And the fight tonight, the fight, the fighters, the nastiest contest to come. Before were done this evening, youll know where the excitement lies. Who has the momentum and what the stakes are if the democrats lose this big one. Lets take a look. I may wander and i may rome, but ill never be far from home. Youre in my heart, youre arkansas, you run deep in me. Vote your heart. Senator, you seem to think that the president is on the bat lot this year. Hes not. This race is between me and you and the people of kentucky and we intend to hold you accountable for your years of failed leadership. My home is dodge city and im damn proud of it. Well, i suspect, senator, ive been to dodge city more this year than you have. [ cheers and applause ] senator ernst would have voted to shut down the federal government with ted cruz. Shes called president obama a dictator and thinks impeachment should be on the table. Congressman, you threatened to sue a neighbor over chickens that came on to your property. Youre talking about bipartisanship, how do we expect
as iowans to believe that you will walk across the aisle when you cant walk across your yard . Theres only way, to go in a different direction, thats to change the senate and make me the leader of a new majority to take america in a different direction. If we keep stepping up and bringing others along, i know we can keep making that change we believe in. I know we can elect mary burke has governor of wisconsin, thank you all so much. God bless. There she is, looking good. Joining me now, Washington Post opinion Writer Jonathan capehart. And the great proffer larry sab toe, from the universitys center for politics. Were going to go right now, to how the republicans could win the u. S. Senate. For republicans to take over the senate, their clearest path to victory flows this way. First, they take south dakota, montana, and west virginia. Then they work their way through alaska, followed by a march into
the deep south to try to capture arkansas and louisiana. Ask then up to iowa. Lets take a look at the face us of the contenders who populate this path to victory if the republicans get it. And discuss a counter attack. South dakota, a threeway race, rick whelan, and the senator for many years, along with mike rounds. An average shows rounds with a doubledigit lead. Montana, democrat Amanda Curtis versus steve danes, the polling average has danes with a doubledigit lead as well. West virginia, republican cap toe maintains a healthy lead. So lets say republicans win these three. Now it starts to get harder for them. The following races are all close. Alaska, mark begins versus dan
silva. Sullivan is up by a hair. To the deep south, mark pryor and tom cotton are neck and neck right now. On to louisiana where the states open primary format has the incumbent fending off bill catsly and rob mannis. Iowa, bruce braley is in the fight of his life against the hog casterator, joni ernst. There we have it. Let me go to larry sab toe who i watch all the time on this. Three of them look good for the republicans. Thats south dakota, montana, west virginia. Then it gets more difficult. Alaska, arkansas, louisiana, and then to win the thing, assuming whats happening will hurt them the republicans in kansas, they got to win iowa. How doesaarj that look to you . I think thats about right. I would say iowa is the most probable sixth or seventh seat if they have to win seven because they lose kansas, or colorado. You might want to throw colorado in there. Those are probably the two most critical seats, assuming they can really knock off the democratic incumbents in the south. You didnt mention kay hagan. I dont think shes going to lose. Thats why. Shes ahead. I want to go right now to that one, but look at the first. This is the path to victory. This is shermans march to the sea, if you will. If they make it to the sea. Right. The key thing here, the one thing no ones talking about, but should Pay Attention to, the African American vote. That is the vote that could be the thing that keeps the senate in democratic hands. And i bring that up in three races. Arkansas, which is on your list, louisiana, which is on your list. You think kay hagan is going to win North Carolina, and it looks good for her right now, but if the polls close up and kay hagan is hanging on, its the African American vote there that could push her over. Now, in louisiana weve seen races where senator landrieu has eeked out a win and its because African Americans were looking at numbers that dont show a lot of intensity on the liberal side of things. Exactly. I know the history says that African American voters and actual the Obama Coalition doesnt come out and vote in mid term elec to people, there are two things you have to look at it. The one, the virginia gubernatorial race, 2013, Terry Mccullough against ken kuch nelly. People didnt think mccaulliffe was going to win. Baugh the African American was there. The second thing to look at, African American voters are pretty angry, theyre angry about voting rights, theyre angry about ferguson theyre a little angry at the president. And the secret Service Threats against the president. That too. Theyre angry with the president because things havent happened, but theyre more angry
about the things that are happening to them by way of republican obstruction, the Supreme Court doing what it did on voting rights. And also a feeling that they need to have the president s back. Whos going to get at them and make the change for the polling right now, you and the first lady, youre both in. Shes been great. We saw a bit of her in wisconsin. But i dont hear the president out there campaigning, angry kivative whites dont want to see him. That we know. But the president s been campaigning, doing fund raisers. Hes not doing them in the states, but hes raising tons of money for the dccc and getting the message out. As excited as you are, i would have no doubt about the turnouts. Anyway, republicans could use this to add to th majority if they have a good day four weeks from tonight. In kansas, greg orman, hell organize with whatever wins. Tom tillis, beats kay hagan. I dont think hes going to do. Nor republican Corey Gardner if he beats udall, same in New Hampshire. Scott brown wins against the incumbent who happens to live in New Hampshire. What do you think the chances are of a real sweep, where the republicans dont just take the senate, they really it up to the mid 50s . Very minimal. You can cut michigan right out of there, chris. [ all speak at once ] absolutely. Look, its not only over its been over for months and months. Weve never had that race out in the democratic column. And some of the others are real stretches that you just mentioned. Look, this is not a slam dunk for the republicans. A year ago they thought they were going to run up 52, 53, 54 seats, and i heard numbers larger than that. Hasnt turned out that way. Its a sixyear itch election, but the itch is really not very deep. Isnt their opportunity to broad sweep elections they could win, they could win south dakota, montana, west virginia, arkansas, louisiana, and iowa. But they could also pick up a vote because orman from kansas says ill go with whatever wins. Thats another vote to add to them. And i do think the race in North Carolina is tricky because youre in virginia. For some weird reason, North Carolina and i went to grad school and im going there this weekend they move to the right. I dont know why and i dont think that can be good for kay hagan. Well, look, its possible that tillis could win. There are 28 days to go, you never know whats going to happen. She has been the great survivor of the election. I agree. I tend to think shes going to hang on. Whats much more important is kansas. That is the real fly in the ointment for the republicans. And a year ago, who could have imagined that kansas might stand in the way of republicans
gaining the senate. For orman, if he wins and hes ahead right now in the polling averages, if he wins, the question is going to be, is she going to join the Republican Caucus after hes had the stuffing beat out of him and a couple Million Dollars of Television Ads that theyre going to fund, or is he going to think about his reelection in 2020 . Hed have a better chance as a republican candidate. Thats what i think. What do you think the headlines going to be in the the Washington Post, your paper, wednesday morning after the election . Democrats hold on, keep the senate, or republicans pick up the senate in a closer vote than expected . Im going to make you mad and say it could be either one. Right now to this point in the tradition, of david broder, he never predicted either. Right now, i would say democrats hang on to the senate by a finger nail. Black vote key. Absolutely. Black vote key. Larry, can you say what you think the headline will be wednesday morning after the election . Will the democrats hold on and hold the senate . Yes, i can predict the headline precisely, chris. The headline is, senate up in air. Louisianas going to have a runoff. Georgia could easily have a runoff in january, not december like louisiana. Its going to take a week at least to figure out whos won alaska and theres bound to be one or two other squeakers. Were not going to know who is controlling the senate for a while after november 4th. Theres a prediction. I think landrieu will have a hard time in the runoff. I think thats going to be tough for her to hold. Anyway, thank you. Alaska comes in late and georgia sometimes in january. Its incredible. Thank you, jonathan capehart, larry sab toe, as brilliant as ever. Stay with us now, the entire hour for our special report on the upcoming november elections. Well look at the races that will decide control. The hottest races coming up right now. Get the zeitgeist feeling and get predictions from a round table on which way this wind is headed. Well also have the most memorable campaign ads of the year. And my favorite part of any Election Night, the concession speeches because theyre the one real part of american politics. This is a special edition of hardball, four weeks before the mid term elections. Brad. An totaled him. You two had been through everything together. Two boyfriends. Three jobs. Youre like nothing can replace brad then Liberty Mutual calls. And you break into your happy dance. If you sign up for better car replacement, well pay for a car thats a model year newer with 15,000 fewer miles than your old one. See Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. vo solver of the slice. Pro. Teacher of the unteachable. You lower handicaps. And raise hopes. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. You can even take a fullsize or above, and still pay the midsize price. pro nice drive. vo well played, business pro. Well played. Go national. Go like a pro. Four weeks from now, on Election Night itself well be watching the winners of course, but the concession speeches from the losing speeches are often the most dramatic moments in politics. A 1952 concession to eisenhower is among the most well respected speeches ever. It has grace, patriotism, and
humor. Someone asked me as i came in down on the street how i felt. And i was reminded of a story that a fellow townsman of ours used to tell, abraham lincoln. They asked him how he felt once after an unsuccessful election we want he said, he said he felt like a little boy who had stubbed his toe in the dark. And it that he was too told to cry, but it hurt too much to laugh. That was one of the best. And in 1978, ed brook lost to sagas. Brook never mentioned sagas financial troubles during the campaign. And in his concession speech, he
praised him for that. I want to congratulate Paul Saunders for the quality of his campaign. I want to congratulate him for the honorable manner in which he has conducted this campaign. When we were down in the valley, i did not cry. I cried out. And you answered that cry, and you have shown your faith and your confidence. In the valley, down in the valley, i did not cry. Thats one of the best ones. And well see if any of the losing candidates four weeks from now can match that for being honest, and a little bit of elquens wont hurt. Well be right back. So ally bank really has no hidden fees on savings accounts . Thats right. Its just that im worried about you know hidden things. Ok, whys that . No hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates. Again, i will continue to support the rff and do that as your next United States senator. If i could respond, im not sure thats what senator ernst told the Koch Brothers when she went to their secret meetings. Congressman braley, youre not running against these other people. Youre running against me. I am a mother, i am a soldier, and i am an independent leader. President obamas name is not on the ballot. And im not going to owe president obama anything on election day. Youre going to owe the Koch Brothers everything. Pretty tough. Welcome back to hardball. That was democrat bruce braley and republican joni ernst, who calls herself the pig casterator. Shes doing well. Iowa has turned out to be crucial this cycle. I think it will decide the election. Along with states like New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Where the Hardball Team will be this weekend to interview senator kay hagan. Iowa is a mustwin for democrats. Most people believe that. And republicans are poised to win in arkansas where msnbc casey is, following former president bill clintons travel stumping for embattled democrat
senator mark pryor. I thought bill was coming home to touch base for Hillary Clinton coming back in 2016. He was saying, ive roamed, ive wandered, but im home. I get the sense its about more than just this election. Your thoughts . I think thats certainly part of it. With the clintons, its always about the future. But in this case, it was a little bit about the past. These candidates are people who have been in his political life for decades. Mike ross was his driver, now running for governor. Mark pryor, trying to hold on to his senate seat. His father was closes to bill clinton for a long time. He brings something to the race that barack obama cant. Bill clinton appeals to the African American voters you were talking about earlier on the show. But also to the rural white voters, the ones that are not happy with president obama this
time around. And that was a message that bill clinton brought to these kraucr here. He rallied at college campuses, hes looking for young votes. But what he said, republicans are trying to make this about president obama. President has really only two years left. The senator you choose is going to be in there for six and that you should look past that sort of lens. He acknowledged the fraught history of race thats present here in arkansas. He talked about what it was like to be here during the Civil Rights Era and how the state has changed for the better since then. He made this pitch to students, to look forward to the future, try not to let republicans define it a certain way. If you think about congressman to the cotton, hes one of the more conservative members in the house. Hes a different kind of republican than arkansas has even even in some of the rest of the arkansas delegation, hes campaigning with huckabee on thursday. Cotton and huckabee are two very
different kinds of republicans. Casey, we got to go. Well be following you on the campaign. Joining me now for a deeper dive into some of the hottest senate races this coming month, democratic strategist David Axelrod and republican strategist. Let me ask you about iowa. This thing about castration got a lot of attention. People accused her of being a lightweight. Shes no lightweight. First of all, being called a lightweight going into a debate is a great advantage because the bar is low and shes exceeded the bar and shes been helped by those encounters. I think iowa is, i agree with you, i think iowa will be the pivotal state in this whole constellation and its very, very close. Shes got momentum. Shes got charisma. But democrats have Great Organization there. One of the things thats giving democrats some confidence there is the early vote, the
applications for absentee ballots, or early vote ballots are coming in in the same proportion they did in 2012 on a partisan basis. Their analysis suggests theyll go into election day with a three or fourpoint lead. So shell have to be more than that ahead in order to win on election day. So its really organization versus momentum and charisma, and well see. What i keep reading, hthere a tremendous number of numbers about the feeling of the country. The liberals are down. They dont want to get out there and vote. The democrat moderate, progressives, they dont have it. The right, theyre angry, theyre going to show up. Thats the way it looks now. In iowa, i think its