Polled today say they opposed the tea party. If you look at all the big issues that animated the political debates over the last couple months whether it was cultural wars like abortion or the government shutdown, we see a very strong reaction to this electorate against the conservative side on those issues. One out of five voters, i think this was a high number, said they thought abortion was their top issue in this election. And of those people and the evidence is that theyre prochoice. 6140 percent. We have to keep reminding ourselves that virginia is so important because it is exactly the Bellwether State for the union. Just about exactly what the nation is. I would say virginia has become the new ohio in many ways. Richard nixon used to say its all about ohio. Its all about virginia now. And the fact that women turned out in overwhelming numbers apparently in support of Terry Mcauliffe is big. Lets look at that number. The nbc news exit poll shows women in virginia breaking forTerry Mcauliffe in a big way while men are split. Women give mcauliffe is 16point edge. That is something. David corn. It goes back to what i was just saying. The issue of abortion which often doesnt motivate voters, doesnt turn elections. We know that. Weve been studying this for decades now. Seems to be a key fight. And thats, of course, cuccinelli, he was the conservative poster boy on all these cultural issues. Abortions being top amongst them. Here weve had this argument in washington. Ted cruz and others saying the Republican Party has to go to the right, has to get out the traditionalist voters. Thats not working for cuccinelli who otherwise was an attractive candidate. In many ways he was unsuited to go after the career women, the professional women, the working women of Northern Virginia who are part of the orbit of Metropolitan Washington and arent going to stand for
what joe biden in the last day of the campaign called sinking from another era. Think about that for a second. Were all three white guys here by coincidence, but its a fact. And im looking at these numbers. It tells you that the white men in this country are not calling the shots. Look at these numbers. Cuccinelli in the exit poll, he sweeps him by 26 points. Yet it looks like mcauliffe is going to win comfortably. Yet the white men say were going for cuccinelli whos gotten some of the worst press, hes made one bad day after another. Now look at this. White women. Weve been saying around this table that the white women all women i should say. Across the state of virginia are very prochoice and inclined to give a big number to mcauliffe. 48 to 43 white women went. Its so different than the way white men vote in their own
households. I would divide it, chris, between Northern Virginia which as i said is part of Metropolitan Washington at this point. From richmond north, its a mixed swing state. And Rural Southern Virginia which is where i think its fair to say the split by gender is still much more. If you look at the numbers of, say, black men and women. Black women, 95 to 5 for mcauliffe over cuccinelli. Obviously if youre a minority in this country we know you have other issues besides gender driving your vote. Exactly. But after the last election, the gop did an internal autopsy and said, listen, we cant win national elections. And this kind of looks like a national election. If we keep losing all latinos, all africanamericans. Thats the point i made a minute ago. We cant close the gap. The point im making here is white men are not a leading indicator of anything. The other thing the other dividing point, chris, is often between married with children, church going. Married with Children Church going whites tend to be conservative and theres a lot of them in virginia. Lets look at the latest we have. Theres a lot of Exit Polling Information to give you. Cuccinellis positions on social issues worked against him. Six in ten virginia voters support legal abortion in all or most cases. I think thats a particularly high percentage. Its usually in the low 50s. If you look at the turnout, youll see the democrats 39 , republicans 30 , a big gap there. I think when it comes to women who care about abortion, which happen to be democrats, they were motivated to go to the polls. But the turnout was from Ken Cuccinelli. He drove them to the polls. That was Terry Mcauliffes strategy from the beginning to hammer on womens issues especially on abortion and health. And even on divorce. Especially in Northern Virginia in the washington media market. He hammered cuccinelli who as david said was ill suited to defend. Because of his record. Let me point out something thats fascinating. I dont want to generalize. If you went to college, you got more liberal. Look at the percentage of voters turning out today. 63 of the voters today finished college. Not just started. Full four year college. Thats a very educated electorate. The other part is if you look at who supported, the poorest people and the least educated supported Terry Mcauliffe, but also the wealthiest and most educated supported Terry Mcauliffe. And that fed into Terry Mcauliffes argument that Ken Cuccinelli was antiscience. That Ken Cuccinelli sued the university of virginias Attorney General for its research on climate change. Now, that may sound like an
obtuse issue. But that was an appeal that really stuck. And i also think were looking now i Dont Know Whether president clinton or the former Secretary StateHillary Clinton will show up tonight, but clearly they are identified very much with this victory if he wins. The exit poll also asked voters throughout virginia how they feel about the tea party. This is fascinating. 30 of voters in virginia say they support the tea party. 43 say they are opposed. David, this is interesting. Lets take another point here. The poll also asked voters who they think is more to blame nfo the federal shutdown. 49 blame republicans in congress. Joining me now right across the potomac is nbc political director chuck todd. We were looking at movies of the
clintons joining mcauliffe in what looked like a victory performance. Obviously that hasnt happened yet. Were getting good numbers from our nbc experts. Your thoughts. Well, heres the best way to look at who voted today. This looks a lot more like 2012 than 2009 here in virginia. Remember, 2009 was a more conservative electorate. It was an electorate that did not look very democratic and we had the republican Bob Macdonald landslide. You put up those numbers on abortion at 61 essentially the prochoice position. In 2012 in virginia, it was 63 . So within margin of error. So youre seeing the national, the type of voter that came out in 2013 looks a lot more like 2012 which would be good news for Terry Mcauliffe which is why were comfortable characterizing it as a mcauliffe lead right now. The other thing that strikes me right now is given the president
we have exit polled virginia now every time we talked about the president s job Approval Rating. As virginia goes, so goes the nation. This is the lowest Approval Rating weve recorded on election day in virginia since hes been in office. He had a 48 Approval Rating in 2009. Down to 46 tonight. When the Health Care Law has a higher Approval Rating in virginia than the president himself, the folks in the white house got a realize here in virginia, if they got a problem here they got a problem nationally. Isnt it interesting and ive watched it on this Program Every night. Although the president is down, theres no doubt the morale of his people is down right now because of the Relentless Assault on his program, health care, and the other issues that have bugged him like syria and the rest of it. There hasnt been a happy cloud scene in months now. His enemies are much less popular than him. In fact, theyre growing in the
unpopularity. Thats whats so fascinating. What i find is what people are reacting to on the moderate side is not so much their enthusiasm for the president right now as much as their antipathy towards attackers. And not only that, chris, this is a huge if youre the National Republicans and youre looking at this exit poll, you should potentially be in full panic mode if it turns out that this is what the electorate looks like and mcauliffe does win. Because the president s at a 46 Approval Rating. Normally you would say thats bad news for the democrats. But mcauliffe still was able to win. It shows what you just said is absolutely right. Its where the republicans position themselves here. Outside of where virginia believes the Republican Party should be. So this is if youre a Republican Party strategist, this is a very scary moment for you because the president s not does not have a good Approval Rating here in virginia tonight. And guess what. It still looks like its
potentially good news for democrats. That is a Nightmare Scenario in 2014. Heres another factor, chris. Even though the public in virginia was split on whom to blame for the shutdown, if you were affected by the shutdown and according to this exit poll one out of three families was affected in virginia by the federal government shutdown, you voted almost two to one for Terry Mcauliffe. You rejected the strategy of shutdown that the republicans put forth. So even though you were divided in terms of theoretically who you blamed, if it affected you, you voted for mcauliffe. That becomes a voting issue for the people who are working for the government and got screwed around and played with and mocked a lot of that time. All this goes to the larger point that this election is not about barack obama. Its not even about health care. Hes lucky its not. If you look at the exit poll hes lucky its not, but hes not running for anything. His enemies are on trial. The republicans are unlucky because its about issues
theyve been pressing that the public has turned on. And so its about the shape of the electorate. Later tonight were going to get to the other look at this country from the northeastern look where a relatively moderate republican, nontea Party Conservative is up for reelection. Looks like he might well win it. Yet here were getting early in the evening a look. Chuck, last word. Chuck . Yeah, go ahead, chris. I just wanted you to throw a little thought here about new jersey so we dont get understa unbalanced here. Were getting a hard look at virginia here. What will we get to maybe back that up in new jersey where they say, you know, we like this more moderate republican. And thats going to be the contrast tonight, right . To me this election day has been about not cuccinelli versus mcauliffe or obama care and all that. To me its about the republican
party and cuccinelli versus christie. Christie went one way with his campaign. I was on the trail with him yesterday and everything was talking about the bipartisan way that he governs. He called himself a conservative, in fact he says it a lot. Ive noticed, by the way, the more someone calls themselves a progressive or conservative, it means people question whether theyre really a progressive or conservative. He would say that. He would talk about governing in a bipartisan way. The messaging here among republicans is look at the last days of cuccinelli. Send a message to the president. This is about health care. Hes with rubio, with rand paul. So its two different campaigns. And i tell you, one looks like its headed to a landslide in favor of the republicans. And one could be responsible for what in virginia could be an historic defeat. Remember, if mcauliffe does win, first time in 40 years that
virginia will vote the same will not elect a governor opposite of the party in the white house, but elect a governor of the same party in the white house. Chuck, great reporting. Well be back to you again and again tonight. Thank you howard fineman, expertise at the table and david corn. Couldnt think of better guys to have here. Coming up, Terry Mcauliffe keyed in on womens issues to win votes. Its a strategy they will try to use against republicans. The gender gap, a big plus for democrats. Well see if it pays off tonight. The virginia governors race, too early to call by the experts. But Msnbc Mcauliffe with the lead. This is hardball, the place for politics. When we made our commitment to the gulf, bp had two big goals
help the gulf recover and learn from what happened so we could be a better, safer energy company. I can tell you safety is at the heart of everything we do. Weve added cuttingedge technology, like a new Deepwater Well Cap and a stateoftheart monitoring center, where experts watch over all Drilling Activity twentyfourseven. And were sharing what weve learned, so we can all produce energy more safely. Our commitment has never been stronger. We continue to watch the numbers come in down in virginia where nbc news is characterizing the governors race there as too early to call. But democrat Terry Mcauliffe is leading. Back with more results in a minute. Customer erin swenson ordered shoes from us online