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MSNBCW Ayman July 3, 2024

Next hour. We, the air this hour. U. S. Officials say their intelligence over the last half hour, hundreds of iranian drones headed in the direction of israel, Cruise Missiles as well as Ballistic Missiles. We are waiting to see if in fact those drones make their way through the a multiple layers of anticipated intercepts that are going to take place over the next several hours. As i mentioned, we are coming on the air with the breaking coverage of irans retaliatory strikes against israel. This comes after the Israeli Military confirmed more than 100 Drone Strikes were launched by iran today, marking the first time iran has launched a direct Military Attack on israet. Obviously, risking a regional conflict that could draw the United States and its military forces into direct confrontation with iran and its proxies across the region. A senior by an Administration Official is warning iran could launch dozens ofansss Cruise Missiles, not just adding that the u. S. And israel have been closely coordinating how to defend against this attack sayingsr quote, we are ready. The israelis are ready. The Israeli Military says it plans to intercept drones before they reach israel as i was saying, but it has also prepared to intercept drones over israel if need be. Moments ago, irans mission to the United Nations posted that this would be its only response to the Israeli Attack against its diplomatic compound in the syrian capital of damascus over a week ago. Of course, as i mentionedai, th was, in the eyes of iranians, a direct attack on irans consulate, a violation of International Norms going after a diplomatic facility. Israel did not take responsibility for it. However, widely believed by the United States and other countries in the region that it was israel that went after these top iranian commanders and several members ofditrel ir military corps. United states has since restricted travel for its staff and israel out of an abundance of caution. Israel has also shut down all schools across the country, and as of this afternoon, it has closed its airspace to both international and domestic flights. Earlier in the day, Iranian Special forces seized a cargo vessel and a key Shipping Line that was operated by the Zodiac Shipping Ih El Country that is of israeli zodiac group. Were showing you live images there on the screen of the Skies Over Jerusalem as we await whether or not these drones make their way into israeli airspace. In the afternoon, President Biden travels, returns to the white house to meet with his National Security teamne about the events taking shape in the middle east, these tensions between israel and other countries in the region have been escalating for months, and it is clear that this is no longer a war solely between israel and hamas focused in gaza, but as we have seen over weeks and months now, has slowly expanded beyond those borders. Lets go now to nbc news chief correspondent Richard Engel who is live for us in jerusalem. Richard, we are going to pick up the coverage where you were just discussing the situation with andrea mitchell. We are showing our viewers these images pof the skies ov jerusalem. Give us a sense of what you are able to see around you, and what the Early Morning sky in jerusalem looks like. So, the pictures i believe you are looking at, and i cant share your screen right now because im just standing on a wrist stop in the old city in jerusalem at the moment but a short while ago here, probably 10 or 15 minutes ago, and it lasted for roughly 20 or 30 minutes, there was a lot of activity. We saw what looked like rockets, flares flying through the sky, coming from areas all around s,jerusalem in multiple directions, and many of them were right over the old city. Behind me, you see the walls of the old city, the part that is the most holy, the most sacred in the city. The most important space for the three great monotheistic religions on the planet, and a short while ago, there was an air war over the old city with these flares flyingth, dozens o them in the sky at the same time, exploding. There was an array inside an inch Air Raid Siren in the julia sims so clearly there was a threat. We could not see exactly what the Air Raid Systems were reacting to, but we did see several of these yellow streaking rockets that were moving through the sky quite slowly e , explode, as it seemed like they were trying to take something out, to try to knock out a target, potentially one of those drums. It was roughly at the same timee israel had predicted the drone was launched by the same time would proceed. That was a short while in jerusalem but since we have been on there with you, it has been quiet here. Av as far as the anticipation of this evening and how it has played out, walk us through what we had learned about what iran was capable of doing, what iran had signaled it was ab willing to do in response to israels attack against its diplomatic compound, earlier this evening the israelis threatening that if Iraq Didpo Cross The Threshold and attack israel directly that israel would do so in kind. What have you heard about israels plan of attack at this point in time . Well, i think it is still a state of assessment. This country is at its highest state of readiness, actively trying to defend the country, the citizenry. Just a short while ago there was another update from the Israeli Military speaking directly to the people. For the last six months here, there have been many Air Raid Sirens. People of gotten used to them, they dont always obey them in the Israeli Military has been signaling to the people, take this threat seriously. Take this threat seriously and go intod i a shelter. The next few days are going to be uncertain. They have banned gatherings over 1000 people. They have canceled all school, and this place is now at its highest level of military readiness. All the Defense Systems are on. The u. S. Military is working closely with the Israeli Military. Cl whether this leads to a regional war, i think really depends on what happens over the next 24 to 48 hours. Will it just be more of a symbolic response from iran, which is, at this stage, mostly what we have been seeing, because iran announced that these attacks were going to come, and it launched the drones. It takes hours for the drones to arrive. The israelis have sophisticated air Defense Systems, which we have seen. They have powerful allies including the United States and other nato allies,dr but it goes further and if they do as they promised to do, use Ballistic Missiles and some of these get barough and cause casualties or a lot of damage, israel has already said it will respond in kind or even to a greater extent and we could be in a very different situation. So, what we know right now is the Israeli Military is completely focused on this and is telling people, dont think that this is just like youve gotten used to for the last six months. This is different. But, they are also putting a time frame on it. Israelis are saying give this until monday night, and then lets reassess. That is how long these restrictions have been put in place, how long they are closing the schools. These next 48 hours, i think, are quite volatile. We are talking about this being an inflection point. We know youve been going, io h israel since october 7th but for those and others who have been on the ground, walk me through the evolution of how we got to this point. Was this direct confrontation between israel and iran inevitable . Was this the trend that was going . I know israeli voices we are going to hear from later on in the show have been warning that things were not trending in the as the war in nf gaza dragged on but give me the readout over the past six months of how we got to this point of a direct confrontation between israel and iran. In many ways, we got here w almost on the first day when hamas crossed into israel, but it broke out of the gaza strip and thousands of hamas fighters entered israel and carried out their massacre and dragged back hostages, some of whom are still in gaza. Iran immediately justified the attack, immediately blamed israel for causing the underlying circumstances that led palestinians, hamas to want to carry out an attack of that nature, and quickly, we have seen hezbollah, iranian proxies like the houthisbl ve, taking a flight to israel but not from iran directlys, so iran was involved either because it supported the attack or because it was supporting other attacks through its proxies right from the beginning, but this has escalated. This is escalated. At Prime Minister netanyahu has talked about targeting tehran several times then it escalated to a very dramatic point about two weeks ago when the israelis carried out an attack on the consular annex of the Iranian Embassy in damascus, and that is generally considered a redline, even in military conflicts. You dont blow up somebody elses embassy because they consider that their own sovereign territory. B once that happened, everyone in the region has just been bracing for this moment right now, and we dont know, will this be to it for tat where the israelis got to carry out their attack and now the iranians are demonstrating their strength, or is this the beginning of a totally new conflict that frankly would be very different in nature from the conflict in gaza. The conflict in gaza is focused. It is contained on the gaza strip and focused on eliminating hamas, and causing catastrophic suffering for the 2 million palestinians who live there. The war between israel and her onll i ran, nearly 1000 miles in that direction, could dragon the entire middle east and have Enormous Economic consequences far tibeyond what weve seen beyond the Human Suffering in gaza. Took us to the significance of this and how we could see all of this reverberate throughout the region right now. What is your reading r of what happened tonight . Well, iran had been telegraphing that this was going to happen and they were going to react to israels attack on the Consular Embassy in damascus. They were almost forced to react. Lets not forget israel has been carrying a number of revolutionary guard officers in syria over the last six months, and iran has d not reacted othe than it supports the houthis and hezbollah but has not directly reacted, but when the consular section was attacked and killed seven top levels i c officers, iran, at least for domestic purposes and on the so called arab streets, had to show some kind of reaction and basically, by telegraphing this for the last 10 days or so,e giving the u. S. Plenty of opportunity to move forces into the reason region, giving israel every opportunity to shore up their defenses. I think iran really does want this to be the end of the story , does not want war with israel. That would be disastrous for iran as well as neighboring countries and i think by sending drones, which fly slower than a lot of modern cars for that distance, has given israel, the u. S. And the uk plenty of opportunities to shoot them down to avoid having these Suicide Drones actually hit israel proper g, and if one or two to get through, i think it is unlikely that they are targeted to civilian areas. Again, iran knows that Heading Civilians in israelli probably would require a reaction from israel, and get support from israel at a time when israel is not very well liked in the region or even, indeed, in the western world because of its actions in gaza. I think they really do want this to be the end of the story. As Richard Engel pointed out on x, irans u. N. Mission very quickly put itio out as a statement that this is the end. Let me ask you about the domestic purposes of irans motivation for a moment before we can get into the implications for the region and what it means for the war in gaza. You mentioned that iran had to do this, or had to do something for domestic facesaving measures or purposes. Walk us through why they were compelled to do that, and if they had not done that, could they have there was some suggestions that the iranians were requesting The Americans to push for a ceasefire in gaza in order for it to avert this retaliatory strike in israel. Coresu there were a couple of instances where iran felt it could satisfy its domestic population, at least the ones who support the regime, with a couple of diplomatic moves. One was going to the un Security Council. They were unable to get to the Security Council because of the u. S. , uk and france blocking it, a statement condemning the Israeli Attack on the consular section in damascus. That may have been enough, at least they indicated again in one of their statements,pl cel if that had happened, they wouldve been less likely to feel the need to react. Once the u. N. Condemns it it feels like okay, now the rest of the world has said that this was wrong of israel, so that was the first thing. The second one was it was a sort of clever diplomatic moves saying that if there is a cease fire in gaza, then a permanent ceasefire in gaza which they we knew the israelis were not going to do but if there is a permanent ceasefire than maybe that also means we dont have to act. Int time particular that means sacrificed these generals in order to save the Palestinian People with a ceasefire so that was a clever diplomatic move that obviously didnt go anywhere but we have to remember irans own government at this point is not very popular for a lot of reasonsla among its population. The Job Revolution A Revolt from a year and a half ago. People are dissatisfied with the economy, the sanctions, irans isolationism, the nuclear deal falling apart. All of those things in the hard line government, the most recent election in iran of a president was m not popular in the most ever turnaround in history of the iranian islamic republic, so the people who do support the regime are the hardliners and those hardliners are the ones who Rewould Need T have a reaction against this israeli strike on their embassy compound, and without those hardliners, to satisfy those hardliners i think the Supreme Leader had to do something to show some sort of strength, to show that iran is powerful and can be a force to reckon with when it comes to israel, and i think there is also the element that at a time when the arab states arent doing anything to help the palestinians, or anything significant to help the palestinian cause, iran is there and attacking israel when israel attacks iran so i think that is the most that kind of thing that if you have only 30 of the population behind you but that 30 are crucial to your survival and crucial to your credibility, then youre going to have to satisfy them. I want to bring into the conversation,30 i American University of beirut distinguished policy fellow, someone who knows the region well and i wanted to get your thoughts on lebanon in the situation. I think for those who have been following what has happened since october 7th, still the biggest threat to israel wouldve been on its northern border from hezbollah, which has been engaged in direct Fire Llfor Octhe Erpast several months. It seems that has not been the case so far from tonight. How do you see what is happened today from this direct iranian e attack on Israel Chaise change the dynamic, specifically, bring hezbollah closer into a fullblown war with israel . Hezbollah is one of the several people around the region who have had war with israel and brought them to a draw several times. Pe and then of course they pushed the israelis out of occupying South Lebanon so hezbollah is very experienced in warfare with israel. The problem is neither does israel want a full fledged war on the lebanonisrael border because both sides are so powerful with such sophisticated weaponry and technology in communications and guidance missiles and things like that Thatsr Sca The Destruction would be massive in both societies, so they are desperately trying to avoid a fullfledged war, but at the same time, netanyahu, for the past months, has been trying to take on the iranians and hezbollah and he seems to want a war. He keeps talking about wanting to destroy hezbollah once and for all,n nd and they see iran the ultimate threat in israel right now, so there are several dynamics going on at the same time. Lebanon does not have any real defense capability on its own other than hezbollah, and that is a very serious defensive and offensive capability but remember, this was triggered by the israelis attacking the iranian consulate in damascus. This is a confrontation of choice by israel to drop iran into attacking israel, so i think we need better responses from the

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