And was captured by the japanese. We have a caucasian woman with your back to the camera, sitting there, looking over towards the ship. You think this is Amelia Earhart . Thats right. And good day, everyone. Im Andrea Mitchell in washington. With north korea threatening the u. S. By testing its first long range missile, capable of reaching the continental united states, President Trump is on his way to his second foreign trip, this one featuring his first face to face meeting with Vladimir Putin. The big question, will he confront the russian leader about muddling in the u. S. Election . All indications are he will not. Even though that would give putin unique leverage over the u. S. And its policies ranging from ukraine to syria. The first stop tonight will be the warmest. In terms of hospitality. Poland, whose right wing leaders welcome the president s antimigration and immigration policies. Thats where we find nbcs National CorrespondentPeter Alexander live in warsaw and Kristen Welker live at the white house. Peter, first to you, what are they expecting when he arrives in warsaw tonight . I think he can break this trip up into three parts, the visit to poland, the visit with Vladimir Putin and the g20 meeting. Certainly here when it comes to this part of europe, there is going to be a warm reception expected for President Trump. This is a government, the right wing government of the president that frankly shadows, echoes, reflects a lot of the same positions of President Trump at home, they have been opposed to the influx of refugees, the same way America First is the position of President Trump. Here they have a polish first policy, trying to push back against russian aggression in this region. It will be interesting to watch what the president s remarks are when he speaks here tomorrow, specifically as the president , sitting side by side with the polish leader, makes comments that maybe directed at russia. Also, the other parts of europe, germany, western europe, will be watching because after the nato and the nato meeting a couple of months ago and the lack of authoritative commitment to nato when he was visiting with the leaders, there was a hope from western european allies that the u. S. Will do more to sort of reaffirm its commitment and that region as well. In terms of nato and the military alliance there, this is one of five countries in nato that does give 2 of its gdp toward defense, something that President Trump is railing against other countries for not doing. So hes likely to hold poland up as an example of how countries in this region should act. And already as we have seen, peter, and Kristen Welker, the president s been tweeting today about north korea and also about the european meetings. Tweeting that north korea has Just Launched another missile, does this guy have anything better to do with his life . Hard to believe that south korea and japan will put up with this much longer. Perhaps china will put a heavy move on north korea and end this nonsense once and for all. That is really an ominous tweet from a north korean perspective. He seems to be talking about regime change. One wonders whether it is wise to be tweeting about a trip like this, rather than sitting with your Foreign Policy advisers and deliberately deciding what your tone will be once you arrive. I think it adds to the high stakes, andrea, and certainly the very complicated backdrop to these meetings that hes about to have, particularly when he gets to the g20 summit and will be meeting the president of china, the leaders of japan and south korea, face to face. China is particularly interesting. That has really been where the white house has been focused when it comes to pressuring north korea. President Trump Inviting the president of china to maralago, they had a number of phone calls, the white house has signaled a real optimism when it comes to china, at least initially, thinking that the president of china would in fact intervene, would get tougher. But then skepticism, reality began to set in that china wasnt stepping up to the plate in the way that the white house wanted it to. Last week, the white house slapped a round of sanctions on a chinese bank that infuriated china. And, of course, you have these very different tweets that hes been sending out, the one you read, andrea, and the other one where he said so much for china working with us, but we had to give it a try. A sense that he is coming to terms with the fact that china might not be the key. The other part of this is, andrea, is that he doesnt have a whole lot of options. Putting more sanctions on north korea as a potential option, possibly moving new military assets into the region, but the administration has been very clear, they see actual military action as a last resort. The defense secretary saying that military action could be catastrophic. So i think these meetings are going to be very tense once he gets to the g20 summit and it is not clear that hes going to get what he wants out of them, andrea. To peter and to kristen, thanks so much. Were going to be drilling down now more on north koreas First Successful icbm launch. Joining me is former nato supreme allied commander, retired four Star Navy Admiral james defetis, the chief International Security and diplomacy analyst. And cory shockey joining us, former pentagon, state department and National Security council official from the george w. Bush white house. Now at stanford university. Admiral, first to you, what is the most significant factor about their advance to be able to launch a missile that went this high and if you changed the trajectory would go this far . Yeah, andrea, the way to think of this is sort of two streams that are coming at each other and you really dont want them to cross. The one is the intercontinental ballistic missile, thats the one that we now have seen the ability of north korea to range potentially as far as alaska. Thats one stream. The other is miniaturizing a Nuclear Weapon so it could ride on one of those. Two streams are coming together. When they cross, when north korea has both of those, we would have a very difficult decision about a preemptive strike. Id say thats probably 12 to 18 months away. So we got some time to try some other things in the interim, maybe the diplomacy with china, though i think it is going to take a lot more pressure on china to get them to move because in the end, china likes a divided korea. They want those two separate koreas and theyre going to try to find china will try to find a middle path between really shut ing down kim jongun and cooperating with us. Lets talk again about the miniaturization of the warhead. Admiral, what is the evidence that they have succeeded or are getting closer to success on that critical piece of it . We have seen a succession of Nuclear Tests conducted now and without getting into extremely highly classified intelligence, ill simply say we feel as though theyre making progress on that path and leaving intelligence aside, common sense would tell us if that is the objective and theyre moving toward it scientifically, they will continue in that direction. So it is extremely worrisome, again, when these two streams cross, probably 18 months away. Cory shockey and admiral, let me play for both of you what secretary of defense mattis said on face the nation the end of may. This regime is a threat to the region, to japan, to south korea. And in the event of war, they would bring danger to china and to russia as well. But the bottom line is it would be a catastrophic war if this turns into a combat if were not able to resolve this situation through diplomatic means. So what are our options . Cory . I think there are several options. And they all have been tried but never tried at the same time. It looks to me like the only thing that has restrained the north Korean Nuclear program was the secondary sanctions that the Bush Administration put on through 2 005 through 2007, which penalized chinese and other banks that operate in the dollar zone if they were doing business with north korea. That appeared to work. And we ought to move very quickly down that path. There is a military option, but the fundamental constraint on that is the vulnerability of the population of south Koreas Capital to artillery from the north korea. Now, admiral, ive heard cory, giving you a chance to clear your throat, admiral, i heard people from this administration say fundamentally, if we felt that there was an icbm with a Nuclear Warhead and we had any kind of advance warning we would take it out, even if they would be immediate retaliation against seoul, against our own people, and our own troops, 28,000 strong in south korea, in the region. Because the fundamental responsibility of the commander in chief is to protect the west coast of the united states. Not to correct not to protect seoul and even tokyo. What is your analysis . It is a very difficult decision for a commander in chief because he, in this case, would have almost 100,000 u. S. Citizens, 28,000 troops, plus all of their dependents at immediate risk and he would have to make a decision that the preemptive quality was so necessary that they would be placed at risk. Again, we have got 18 months roughly before that decision is going to have to be made. I think there is a cyberkind of path here, that might yield some results. There are some Additional Special forces things you could think about, but frankly we do not have a very good set of kinetic options here. And im with cory, lets try harder. Sometimes the best plan b is to try harder on plan a. We ought to really pressurize the chinese with secondary sanctions. We might want to play the taiwan card, we might want to play the South China Sea card. We have a big trade imbalance with china. We have cards to play here. We have some time, thats the way to go, because secretary mattis is correct, it will be a catastrophic war. When you speak of special forces, we dont know where everything is, the tunnelling is extensive in this very large country. So we dont know how we could take everything out and this was apparently mobile launch. We wouldnt have a whole lot of lead time for any kind of preemptive action to target a missile, we cant be sure that our own Missile Defense is 100 accurate. Is there a regime change option of trying to in some way penetrate the north korean regime and try to figure out some kind of assassination attempt . There is. But the problem is you dont know who would come afterward. And it is very difficult to predict in a fluid situation like that. I hear cory, who i think has cleared her throat. Cory, if you want to weigh in on that, please. Yeah, the other thing i would add is that fundamentally the north korean regime appears to want Nuclear Weapons in order to preserve the regime. So thats a reasonably conservative objective theyre trying to achieve. I think the greatest risk of north korea and Nuclear Weapons use is in the event that the regime is subject to a coup attempt or falling for some reason. So the very act of trying to force a regime change could result in the outcome that all of us want least. So admiral, if you were the commander in chief, what would you do first . Tighten the secondary sanctions, more military aid to taiwan, more defense posture in the South China Sea . Indeed, all of those things, i would also continue to get broader international support. Thats why the g20 meeting is actually a pretty Good Opportunity to say to other heads of state and government, especially those in asia, but really globally, that a war in this region could actually have crippling effect on the international economy. There is an enormous International Region for all of us to Work Together to solve this problem. So i think broadening it as well as looking at the specific things we should do and then finally youve got to prepare in case the wheels really come off what are the no kidding military options that the commander in chief has. I know that planning is ongoing. And short of that, is there is there a downside to tweeting about china and north korea, going into these talks on the world stage with serious players like Angela Merkel and macron and trudeau and other leaders from around the world, president xi. In my view, the ongoing use of tweeting is very harmful. I can see occasionally a leader using a tweet like a shot of espresso to wake up the system, but the steady drumbeat doesnt allow the nsc, doesnt allow the agencies of government, doesnt allow the International Coalitions to react in a sensible linear kind of way. That is detrimental, especially as you get toward crisis. Thank you, both, so much. Coming up, Great Expectations before taking off on his second overseas trip. More on how the president s twitter diplomacy is already making waves. Youre watching Andrea Mitchell reports on msnbc. Theres nothing more important to me than my vacation. So when i need to book a hotel room, i want someone that makes it easy to find what i want. 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As the twitter stream from this president on his way now to, you know, his second foreign trip, tweaking the chinese who only, you know, yesterday met with miracerck merkel, the day h putin, how does this work . It is just generally unsettling. The bottom line is Foreign Policy by tweet is not just not smart, it is it is unsettling for our allies who, you know, in the diplomatic community, which you covered for years, you know, there is a certain consistency, there is a dependency. You can have aberrations where you know people color outside the lines, but thats all trump does is color outside the lines. So for the diplomatic community, whether it is merkel or foes like china or russia, and probably less russia because he tends to be more favored towards them, there is this sense of where is this president going with this Foreign Policy what does it mean when he says, okay, well, we now know there is not going to work with china, lets move on. Move on to what . Thats the question. Im reminded of Ronald Reagans first big g7 meeting here in 1983, the first one on home soil in williamsburg. And the big meeting on monday and on sunday night he had a big briefing book that he was supposed to read. And the next morning, jim baker and George Schultz and all his cabinet guys come in and say, you know, any questions from the briefing book, he said, well, boys, im really sorry, but the sound of music was on last night. Well, he didnt he didnt read the briefing book. But he had already developed skills with Maggie Thatcher and having his back against trudeau, later on the other leaders and not at this kind of crisis either and then he gradually learned it. And by the time he met with gorbachev in 84, he was as skilled a negotiator as there was. It takes the president taking time to develop the relationship. For him, Foreign Policy was as much about personal policy as it was the diplomatic stuff he had to do. So president reagan, quite frankly all of the president s, even though, you know, people said that barack obama didnt have a Good Relationship with members on the hill, he had