assange to sign a blockbuster plea deal. another big hearing in donald trump's classified documents case. how his lawyers are trying to get a raft of damning evidence thrown out. and a new view inside president biden's strategy for this week's debate against former president trump. how he's preparing to take on two trumps. we're also tracking deadly flooding in the midwest, straining dams and levees and causing thousands of evacuations with more rain on the way. good morning, thank you for joining us. it is 10:00 eastern. i'm ana cabrera reporting from new york. right now, wikileaks founder julian assange is on his way to a remote u.s.-controlled island in the pacific where he'll plead guilty to a conspiracy charge as part of a deal with the u.s. justice department. now, under this deal, as we understand it, assange will become a free man, ending a 14-year legal odyssey sparked when his organization posted nearly half a million classified military documents, one of the biggest leaks of classified material in u.s. history. nbc's josh lederman is tracking the story from london. also with us, former u.s. attorney barbara mcquade. what do we know about this deal and give us the ticktock of how this plays out today. >> what a remarkable change of fortune for julian assange, who just a few months ago, i was standing outside the high court in london where it appeared that he was on the verge of being extradited to the u.s. to face more than a dozen charges, potentially up to 175 years in u.s. prison, though he was likely to ultimately get less than that. but then back in march, the court ordered that he could have a full appeal to his extradition, and in the weeks since there have been apparently been very intense behind the scenes negotiations with the justice department for the plea deal that he is now entering, in which he will only plead guilty to one charge under the espionage act. he will be likely to be sentenced to 62 months, which is exactly the amount of time he's already spent in prison here in the uk as he awaited potential extradition. so that means he will get time served and essentially be a free man after these proceedings take place tomorrow in court. u.s. federal court as he's making his way back toward his home country of australia. >> josh, do we have any insight into why the u.s. agreed to this? is there a sense that maybe australia, great britain, and other countries wanted this to be over? >> well, the justice department isn't commenting on their thought process here, but it is true, the australian government has been very clear they feel this legal saga played on for far too long. many in australia have questioned whether the u.s. even had jurisdiction over julian assange. the fact that that british court had allowed him a full appeal to his extradition meant that just the legal process here in the uk was likely to go on for a whole lot longer before he could ever be extradited to the u.s. to face a jury there, and even if he were to do that, there was no guarantee he would be found guilty. it is possible the justice department decided they didn't want to see this legal saga continue for that many months longer and it would be best to try to get a plea deal at least with julian assange admitting guilt on that one charge under the espionage act. >> barbara, so many moving parts here, different countries, is this a done deal or could it still fall apart at the last moment? >> well, yes, the judge in the northern mariana islands still has to approve this deal. now, typically that happens if both sides are in agreement. and it meets all of the legal requirements, a judge will typically approve it. as we saw in the hunter biden plea, a judge has to be satisfied there has been a meeting of the minds and that all issues are resolved and once and a while, when a judge starts asking probing questions, plea deals can fall apart. but that's really quite rare and so i suspect that in a case of this magnitude, the parties fought through all of the details and it is most likely to go through. >> barbara, why do you think the doj made this deal and why now? does the punishment fit the crime if you consider the massive leak and chelsea manning's role in all of this, 35 years sentenced, didn't serve it all, but, still -- >> yeah, i think there are a number of different factors that prosecutors consider when deciding whether to resolve a case. and when you accept a guilty plea, it is not the same punishment that you would expect to get after conviction after trial. the government is giving up something, both sides give up something to reach a plea deal. but looking at all the factors here, one is uniformity with other sentences. chelsea manning served seven years as the person with the clearance. so i sentence of something less than seven years was probably likely for julian assange. if he were extradited to the united states, he no doubt would file a number of motions, challenging these charges. and that brings with it some concerns about press freedoms and first amendment issues that could set some bad precedent for the department. i think it also is valuable to have resolution with the certainty of conviction, and no possibility of a not guilty acquittal in this case. and there is also a risk that at trial the government would have to expose some of the very secrets it was seeking to protect in this case. and so i think when you consider all of those factors, this looks like a pretty good deal for both sides. >> josh, the white house put out a statement on this deal, let me read part of it, quoting, this was an independent decision made by the department of justice and there was no white house involvement in the plea deal decision. is this something the white house would typically be knowledgeable about due to all of the foreign diplomacy involved or can the doj pull this off, all on its own? >> as barbara knows better than anyone, the justice department doesn't have to ask anyone's permission to accept a plea deal. they can do that all on their own. i think it is fair to say in high profile extraditions like this, where there are potentially large political ramifications, possibly even policy consequences, that it would not be unusual for there to be some level of consultation or notification to the political wing of the government, to the white house, about something like this, that might be taking place. but it is notable that the white house is going out of its way to make clear, given how potentially explosive this resolution is that president biden was not the one who ultimately decided to free julian assange. >> and, barbara, let's not forget, separately, wikileaks published the hacked emails from the democratic national committee and hillary clinton's campaign back in 2016. that was a big deal, assange was never charged for alleged involvement in that leak. could that change? >> i don't think so. and i think that that's probably an important question for the judge to ask today, whether there is any additional exposure here. that's how the hunter biden deal fell apart when the judge started asking questions about could any additional charges be filed or does this resolve everything? it is common for the government to include a clause in the plea deal that says the government agrees not to charge the defendant with any criminal conduct of which it is currently aware. so, i would imagine that the hillary clinton and dnc emails is something that the parties discussed and agreed to resolve, solely based on the charges in this indictment, which were all about the defense department, wikileaks publication and theft through chelsea manning. >> it looks like we have conclusion here momentarily in a tale that has taken on so many twists and turns. thank you, both, for joining us. we're following more breaking news and a doubleheader in another donald trump classified documents, couple of hearings down in florida. next hour there will be a sealed session on materials protected by grand jury secrecy. and the defense will try to exclude key evidence found in the mar-a-lago search, such as the special counsel is providing here in these photos of those documents that were recovered by the fbi. nbc's ken dilanian is outside the courthouse in fort pierce, florida. also joining us, msnbc legal analyst and former federal prosecutor charles coleman. ken, walk us through the issues at play in today's hearings. >> reporter: hey, good morning, ana. as you said, the defense is trying to suppress evidence here, but by far the most important issue on the table today are the notes of recordings made by donald trump's lawyer evan corcoran that were obtained under what is known as the crime fraud privilege and a federal judge has already ruled on this issue, already ruled that those notes were admissible in this investigation and they provided a road map for this indictment. when you read the indictment and the classified documents case, you find references to these notes sprinkled throughout. and recall there was a moment in the indictment where corcoran described trump making a plucking motion as if to say he was removing documents from a group of documents that were requested by the federal government. the gist of those notes which came from recordings that he made into his iphone was evidence of obstruction of justice, evidence that donald trump was trying to conceal documents from the government, when they were seeking them, and at one point donald trump said wouldn't it be better if there were no documents, according to corcoran. so the defense is trying to get all that stuff knocked out of the case. if they succeed, it would be a huge blow to the prosecution. but, again, remember, a federal judge in washington already said that this stuff was admissible under the crime fraud exception, which means attorney client privilege can be pierced because the conversations were in furtherance of the crime. that is the big one at stake here today. >> charles, just to peel back the onion a little bit more. so a judge previously approved the search warrant prior to it being executed. so why would those materials involved in the search warrant be at issue? >> what they're trying to argue is basically the whole thing is faulty. they're trying to say the basis for the search warrant is faulty and therefore some of, if not all of the fruits of that search warrant should be thrown out. this is donald trump's attorneys trying to chip away at as much as they can of the evidence that prosecutors will ultimately have to present before a jury of donald trump's guilt of what he's been charged with. so, they may not necessarily believe inside the trump camp that they're going to be able to get all of this thrown out. but if they get some of it, or more of it, or most of it, or even a piece of it, they're in better shape than they are now. to pick up where ken left off, that's a big part of the argument, basically since this road map came from the crime fraud exception, the notes that were constructed by his attorney, what happens if you take that out? now the government doesn't have this indictment and it leaves the judge with a very different road map in terms of how she rules on the evidence that was recovered from this search warrant and that's the strategy here. >> it was significant evidence and information, this attorney provided to the case, right? and so evan corcoran, passing on his voice notes, basically said trump suggested that he lie or completely ignore a subpoena as it related to the mar-a-lago documents. if that can't be part of the case, how big of a blow is that to the prosecution? >> it is very significant. this was very much so a big part of how the prosecution put its indictment together and because of that, i think when you're talking about this, the question then becomes where do you establish the probable cause and the other things that are necessary in order to go through the search and get the documents that were maintained. now, let me be very candid in saying that the probable cause can very much so be established by the subpoenas that were sent, the different notices that donald trump and his unresponsiveness. very clear there. the issue that you have is the notion of intent. these notes that his attorney had and took from their conversations clearly displayed donald trump's intent on evaing the federal government and trying to get the documents back. that's a big part of their case there, they would have to figure out in terms of displaying either through the testimony of other witnesses or other things that are evidence that they have not let us know they have. the notes from his attorney are the most clear or they're the clearest and most unambiguous way of showing donald trump's intent. without them, prosecutors would have to find another way. >> this is the third day of hearings in as many days in this case. the gag order request is still not resolved and during yesterday's hearing on that, judge cannon butted heads with the special counsel's team is our reporting. tell us about this. >> reporter: the special counsel had a rough time in the gag order hearing yesterday. judge cannon asked a number of skeptical questions and at one point david harbaugh, from the prosecutors, a veteran anticorruption prosecutor, who really exasperated with the judge and got a little chippy and she told him to watch his tone and he later apologized. that was just kind of an example of how frustrated this special counsel's office is and frankly it is not clear that they made their case, it is a tough case to make. it is obvious that donald trump lied about what the fbi was authorized to do in terms of deadly force at mar-a-lago. it is much harder though to prove that those lies directly endanger fbi agents. that's a theoretical, a speculative argument and judge cannon made that point and appeared to indicate that she is not ready to order -- mr. trump to stop saying those things. >> charles, quickly if you will, what do you make of that apparent tension between the judge and the prosecution? >> i think that judges get into it with prosecutors all the time. you have to understand where the line is toed. i think the prosecutors are frustrated with what's been going on. and that's a big part of why i think you're seeing this sort of butting of the heads occur. at the end of the day, as a former prosecutor, i can tell you, you have to keep your cool, be prepared for the tense moments. but at the end of the day, you don't want to upset a judge so if you feel like you crossed the line, you need to do what the prosecutor in this case did, get yourself back on track and apologize. >> charles coleman and ken dilanian, thank you, gentlemen. still ahead, dangerous flooding in the midwest, living a critical dam at risk of imminent failure. and there is more rain in the forecast. plus, where t minus 48 hours now until the first presidential debate of 2024. this morning, new nbc news reporting on how the biden campaign is preparing. also ahead, a new legal block for efforts to forgive millions of student loans. what it means for americans waiting for relief. we're back in just 90 seconds. don't go anywhere. back in just . don't go anywhere. ck... now with skyrizi, i'm all in with clearer skin. ♪ things are getting clearer ♪ (♪♪) ♪ i feel free ♪ (♪♪) ♪ to bare my skin, yeah that's all me. ♪ ♪ nothing is everything ♪ (♪♪) with skyrizi, 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months. and most people were clearer even at 5 years. skyrizi is just 4 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine, or plan to. 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>> reporter: the stakes are so high, ana, as we all know. viewership will be very high as well, as the american people, many of whom have not been as fully engaged with the election, will have their best chance to see a matchup. and so from the biden campaign side, preparation is really on several fronts. there is the substance of working through policy ideas, what has been accomplished so far, what is yet to be done, with briefing books assembled by his closest aides. tactically also looking at all of the, if i can use the sports analogy, the game films of donald trump interviews and appearances to know the kinds of things that he says and the different personas he brings to different circumstances. there is the big over the top campaign donald trump, and then in certain local or specialty media interviews, the former president can be more controlled and more direct in his interactions with a question or a reporter. and so they're preparing for either extreme, if you will, of the kind of character that donald trump brings to the debate studio on thursday night. in any event, joe biden has his own plan of what he wants to do in addressing the american people, and to also be able to respond to donald trump. we know the microphones will be turned off when a given candidate is not speaking. we know in the past donald trump would interrupt a great deal and there would be back and forth. so, those are some of the things that we're looking at. in addition to that, the president is continuing to do his day job from camp david with his regular briefings, and updates on current events like the flooding and the extreme temperatures that so many parts of the country are experiencing. ana? >> kelly o'donnell, thank you for the reporting. joining us now, former adviser to john mccain and george bush, mark mckinnon and democratic pollster and political analyst fernand amandi there is so much anticipation for thursday. these men have debated before. both men have already been president, so the voters know their records. given that, how much does this debate matter? >> that's a great point. the reality is that it is a huge debate. it is huge for me to think of any presidential debate that could be as consequential as this one. your point is right. voters know about these guys. it is nothing that trump is going to say about biden or biden say about trump. this is more of a competency test than a debate. the question that voters on both sides have about each candidate is, you know, they're 80 years old, they're old, they know that, the question is are they up to the stage, can they stand on the stage for 90 minutes and can they be alert, can they stay focused and can trump not lose his temper? that's the key. just to see whether or not these guys are up to the job. >> who do you think has more at stake in this debate? >> there is no question for me, president trump is the one with the most riding on the line here. unfortunately, you know, the idea of preparing for two different trumps in the debate is not a realistic one. there is only one trump. it is the over the top, insulting, narcissistic, easily offended guy, that's the guy who is going to be on stage, the idea that trump might be disciplined or focused, i've never seen that person in the last eight plus years. so i think for him, it really is an opportunity to do some real harm to the candidacy. i think mark is right. there is a tremendous amount riding on this debate, and you look at for president biden, it is a chance to get his supporters and the democratic base really re-engaged. if he has a strong performance like he did at the state of the union, i think that's going to have a shot of huge adrenaline into team biden and the campaign, get people excited about the prospect, overcome any concerns about age. if he performs like the commander in chief that he's shown he can be on the global stage, whether at the g-7 or other important settings, i think he will do just fine and frankly, the trump campaign is so bungled the expectations game, ana, where short of a massive senior moment or physical collapse for president biden on stage, he's going to walk off the winner. >> and, yet, mark, i know you have written in a new piece in "vanity fair" about the stakes for president biden and it is titled here how biden can flip his fortunes or flop. you say the president needs to really pick two or three issues and that you think trump will unravel. what issues would make that happen? >> well, listen, i think this is 90% psychology. i talked to david axelrod about obama's first debate, you got to get their head in the right space and the key for biden is just going to be calm, to stay alert, and poke at trump. he's not going to win a policy debate. not going to win an argument with trump. what he can do is get into trump's psychology, what trump hates more than anything is being framed as a loser, and biden has a lot of evidence to make that case. take jobs, for instance. trump came in and had -- he left with fewer jobs than when he started. he has the worse jobs record than hoover from 100 years ago, first presidential candidate to lose not only the presidency but the house and the senate. just framing him as a loser, that gets to trump's psychology. that will make him unravel. some policy debate and nuances -- that's not what's going to make trump come undone. get into his head space. >> i think people are wondering how much drama will this debate end up having? "the new york times" spoke to voters watching the debate with the hand over their eyes, one voter telling the times that this debate has all the makings of a train wreck with chemical spillage that is lethally toxic. another saying that, quote, this is the most apprehensive he's felt about a presidential debate, adding a sense of disaster in the making where neither will look presidential. fernand, what does that tell you about the state of american politics that this is what the public is feeling about the two men on the ticket? >> well, look, i think the american public is right, there are some legitimate concerns with president biden, i think the age question is a legitimate one, he would be the oldest president ever re-elected. with trump, the concerns are about someone who has said in word and in deed, ana, he plans to be a day one dictator and in essence end the american experiment in democracy. so i think those two things are going to be on display. one card, however, that i think we need to be mindful of, i anticipate donald trump is going to have a bad night. one thing i think they're going to do is perhaps even to try and change the conversation, announce the vice presidential pick as early as the next morning, trump has already said vice presidential selection will be at the debate, i think they may just go ahead and announce it to try to flood the zone, change the conversation. if trump performs as badly as he historically does when it comes to serious debates where he has an opportunity to take the higher ground and never does. >> fernand, lowering expectations for donald trump's debate performance. and thank you for joining us. mark mckinnon, great to have you with us as well. thank you, both, so much for that conversation. be sure to tune into msnbc this thursday when rachel maddow and team will have special coverage and analysis of the first presidential debate, hosted cnn, watch thursday at 7:00 p.m. eastern here on msnbc. new this morning here in new york, voters are heading to the polls in what has become a highly contentious democratic primary. it is the race in the 16th congressional district between incumbent progressive jamaal bowman and westchester county executive george latimer. it has attracted big name endorsements and dollars. this has become the most expensive primary on record. nbc news correspondent ali vitali is live from that district in mount vernon, new york. the israel-hamas war had a big role in this race. how is that playing out as voters head to the polls today? >> reporter: a big role in this race, but this is the contest that has so many overlapping dynamics in it. it is not just centered on foreign policy, though that could be the thing that either loses bowman his seat or allows him to retain it. but it is also a moment where they're reflecting on his record here, and it is also a split and a dynamic we have seen before, most recently into the 2016 democratic presidential primary, where we saw progressive democrats against more moderate centrists. and you're seeing people like hillary clinton and bernie sanders both weighing in. they're just some of the notable endorsements that i can put up for you on the screen to give you a sense of where things are breaking down. you also got for the first time over the weekend a sitting member of congress endorsing against the incumbent, against bowman. that's congressman josh gottheimer from new jersey. on the other side of this, you got top congressional leadership including the top democrat hakeem jeffries, as well as congresswoman alexandria ocasio-cortez and bernie sanders, rallying in the district. when you listen to the candidates, who i both spoke to over the weekend, this is what they say the race is hinging on. watch. >> his response to october 7th was yet the next, you know, type of thing. >> he is attacking me as if somehow my position is outside of mainstream. it is his position with some of the -- that is outside mainstream. >> he was recruited by apac to run against me. do you want to send a career politician funded by right wing republican billionaires who literally wants to buy our democracy and turn it into fascism? the choice is crystal clear. >> reporter: you mentioned the price tag on this race. i'm pretty sure if you live in this area, you couldn't ignore it if you wanted to. these ads are all over the airwaves, all over the radio, and even when you look at the way that just local people here are reacting to the race, in one of the towns in this district, the town had to post on social media telling people stop removing your neighbor's signs. the politics here is really local and everyone is paying attention at this point as polls close late tonight, 9:00 p.m. >> great to see that people are passionate and are engaged in the whole process. ali vitali, thank you. hope those neighbors can make amends at the end of the day. another legal roadblock for president biden's efforts to forgive millions in student loans. a federal judge has now temporarily barred the education department from allowing additional loan forgiveness, halting the cancellation of federal student loans under the administration's save plan after several states sued. the judge also shot down an effort by the administration to dismiss the case. saying the states are likely to succeed on the merits of their argument. this all follows last year's check by the supreme court on the issue when it rejected the pandemic era debt relief plan. next on "ana cabrera reports," new video emerging of abductions on october 7th as israel's defense minister visits washington. plus, violent clashes in kenya as protesters there have breached the parliament. what they're demanding next. breached the parliament. what they're demanding next. 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like these folks did. - [narrator] call right now to receive your free, no-obligation info kit. call the number on your screen. we're back with some breaking news out of kenya, right now there are intense clashes as protesters breach parliament after lawmakers voted to raise taxes. nbc's danielle hamandjian joins us. >> part of the parliament is on fire. there are according to local reports lawmakers who are taking shelter in the basement. according to one local paramedic, she says she has counted about ten people who were shot dead, dozens, at least 50 injured and taken to hospital. this is all because of a controversial finance bill which is expected to raise $2.7 billion in additional taxes. today was the second reading in parliament. and it passed. it is now moving to the third reading and it is going to the president for signing, he can send it, he can sign it or send it back to parliament for any objections. they have been protesting for weeks now, because they say that this would choke the economy and raise the cost of living at a time when kenyans are already struggling to make ends meet. one protester was quoted as saying a few days ago they can't even afford diapers or vaccines. they want the president to step down, they want the finance bill to be completely -- to be gone, done with it. i have to just, you know, this is a lot of information coming in as we speak. i want to read this to you. the red cross saying that their vehicles have been attacked. something else that is grabbing headlines, i should point out, president obama's sister who lives in kenya, she says she was teargassed on live television, saying that these young people carrying flags and banners have done nothing to deserve this. they have been teargassed. live rounds have been heard throughout the streets of nairobi. and so she was teargassed on live television. these were pictures captured by cnn. >> quite an unsettling situation. thank you for bringing us the very latest. we'll stay on top of that story. and turning now to the latest in the war in israel and hamas and disturbing new video showing the abduction of hostages. it is tough to watch. this video recorded by hamas militants on october 7th, just released by hostage families. it shows the abduction of three hostages during that attack including hersh goldberg pollin. nbc news international correspondent matt bradley has more from israel. matt? >> reporter: israel's military leader is in washington meeting top u.s. officials as the war continues with strikes overnight. the families of hostages released new video showing an abduction on october 7th. they're hoping it will spur calls to free the remaining hostages. this video, shot by hamas, is very graphic. today israel's assault on the gaza strip continues. the idf striking two school compounds overnight, attacking the palestinian civil defense, the emergency rescue service in hamas-ruled gaza said killed 14 people and left several injured. israel's military said the two schools had been used by hamas as a shield for its terrorist activities. the war in gaza among the topics that israel's defense minister discussing with top officials on a visit to washington, including secretary of state antony blinken. >> he is emphasizing a few things in his meeting with the defense minister, number one. our ongoing commitment to israel security, number two the importance of israel developing robust realistic plans for the day after the conflict. >> reporter: another major goal, patching up disagreements in a fraying alliance. yoav gallant saying in a statement overnight, we must resolve the differences between us quickly, and stand together. israel's leadership now more isolated than ever as families of the remaining hostages still held in gaza ramp up protests and calls for a deal. including american hersh goldberg pollen, whose mother and father are demanding action. yesterday, they released a video of his abduction with two others. the video was shot by hamas militants during the october 7th attacks, you can see hersh's captors celebrating and his left arm had been severed by a grenade attack. >> you still haven't seen the video? >> no. >> do you expect to see it? >> i don't know. i feel like i've lived in this parallel universe of anguish for 262 days. >> reporter: like many here, the family is angry that months of negotiations haven't freed their son. >> these are real people with dreams, with aspirations, with families waiting for them, this is our son. >> reporter: and amidst that sparring between jerusalem and washington, we heard again from israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu, he's walking back comments he made earlier in the week, this time saying that he won't end the fighting in the gaza strip until all those hostages are released. but the organization representing the families of those remaining hostages are slamming the prime minister, they're saying he made inconsistent statements and they're demanding an urgent meeting. >> must be so gut wrenching, matt bradley, thanks. still ahead, delayed again, while a stint in space has gone from a week to a month. and mcdonald's rolling out a new deal for customers tired of eating the price of inflation. how about a meal for just 5 bucks? 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>> reporter: there's no question that mcdonald's is americana, but like every other company out there they are fighting years of inflation. the company says to deal with the rising costs of goods and staffing, today they are dropping the $5 meal. >> you deserve a break today at mcdonald's. >> this morning, mcdonald's is unveiling a new break for your wallet, with their value menu. starting today for just $5, the fast-food chain will offer your choice of a mcdouble or mcchicken sandwich, a small fry and small drink. it's expected to run nationwide with four weeks with some franchises committing to extend the offer. >> the price of food away from home rose 4% just over the last year, according to the bureau of labor statistics. >> can we talk about how ridiculous fast-food prices are? >> as customers feel the bite. >> almost $9 for a big mac. >> places like burger king, wendy's, they are already offering their own $5 rival deals. >> in terms of price, pretty good. >> reporter: now with mcdonald's entering the battle of the buns with its value, its president serving up a message, we heard our fans loud and clear, and we are offering delicious, affordable options. mcdonald's has posted its prices at a glance so you can get a sense of what you are paying present day value versus five years ago. the medium-sized fries up 44%, and many franchises have ways to offer for the deals, and you can think free fries friday. who will say no to that? 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