something we predicted. but we are open to that idea. i think the thing that steve really helped clarify is that, if you look at every other number besides the horse race, besides her second place finish, you would think she's trailing, that she would be third place, and maybe a distant third place. because the underlying fundamentals are not the ones of a strong candidate surging. so even though her horse race number left a few percentage points, it really is all of these other indicators that make us think that her number in the poll is better than her number will be on monday night, maybe. >> reporter: i want to focus a little bit on an intriguing number in your polling, where you are showing 11% of gop caucus goers who are likely, or