>> oh, i can hardly stand the suspense, chuck. good morning, everyone. july 8th, 2010. i'm savannah guthrie live in washington. i will not be le-fawning over lebron, chuck. >> no. we'll discuss, savannah, what to do and what the next move will be. >> i'll leave. you can have that hour. >> no. but it's possible we may decide to do this hour one more time again tomorrow but stay tuned to the end of the show and let you know. i'm chuck todd live in aspen. so let's get to the lebron rundown. we're going to begin with the russian spy saga. call a flashback to the cold war. u.s. officials appear on the verge of swapping alleged agents with moscow. pete williams is nbc's justice correspondent. pete, round up the usual suspects. we're suddenly still have spies in moscow and handle this case? >> reporter: well, so it would appear. we can't say that for 100% certain and sure looks that way now. there are two sort of things happening. the first is the defendants have all been brought together in new york for a hearing today. they could well plead guilty. this is a very fast-moving case. the government just filed the indictment against them yesterday after the earlier criminal charges filed. they will be in court. first chance to plead and may plead guilty. if that happens, then we go to step two which is at least in the works a swap. those ten, perhaps not all, but most of those ten in exchange for ten people held in russia charged by the russians with spying for the u.s. now, on the old days, chuck, they would have been brought to the bridge of spies in berlin but that's no longer a divided city and could be happening very fast in vienna. a man who was convicted six years ago of spying for the united states has been brought from his gulag in russia to a moscow prison and told to stand by headed to basically shuts it down. puts the light of day on it. shows the russians we were able to penetrate it and take it down and the u.s. believes it's put russia out of the business of these people coming into the u.s. and mass ka raiding as americans and being secret agents for russia. >> a different concept of justice. not in court necessarily. >> a bonus. >> we'll see. pete williams, we know you will be following it, thanks. the president stepping up the campaign activity today stepping into senate races in two states. first missouri and then nevada where senate leader harry reid hanging on by a thread. athena jones joins us live from the white house. good morning. tell us about the president's trip. >> reporter: good morning, savannah. today is about the economy and the midterm elections. the president heads first to kansas city to a plant that got a $32 million stimulus grant for electric trucks part of what is white house call it is recovery summer with officials traveling the country highlighting the ramp-up in recovery act spending and they say the most active recovery season yet and part of the pace the president and officials trying to make to voters that the obama administration with the help of democrats in congress who they want to send back was able to take these steps to get the economy back on the right track. the challenge is he's doing this when everyone knows that millions of americans are out of work and balance talking up the economy saying the recovery isn't happening as quickly as we like but the economy is stronger and stronger. maybing that stop in kansas city, speak on the economy and then two fund-raisers for a senate hopeful there in kansas city and then heads to las vegas to stump again for harry reid, probably about the third time we believe he'll be on the stump for harry reid. of course, harry reid is in a tough race himself. we have heard from white house press secretary robert gibbs that the president will be very political in the speeches on the stump at the fund-raisers today making the case that democrats should be sent back and making the right moves. republicans are out of touch. likely to hear him bring up the joe barton apology to bp and comments of regulatory overhaul being like killing an ant with nuclear weapons and hearing political language today in the stump speeches. back to you. >> athena jones at the white house for us, thanks very much. clearly, the president not just trying to sell democrats but the recovery. bp is making a big promise. now saying its relief wells could be finished weeks ahead of schedule by july 27th. anne thompson is nbc's chief environmental affairs correspondent. anne, july 27th happens to be a special date as far as bp is concerned because that's a big earnings report day, is it snot. >> reporter: it is, chuck. in fact, it is the day that the bp will report the second quarter earnings and, wow, what kind of good news able to kill the well on that day. they are very close. they're about 15 feet away horizontally and 300 feet vertically. but this is the real delicate time in this operation because they have to be extraordinarily precise as they approach the well. they go -- they're now moving in like 15 to 20-foot increments and they drill and then they send a magnetic wire down where they've drilled to make sure they're going in the right direction so this is absolutely crucial. if it does happen before august, it would be the first thing that has actually gone ahead of schedule and actually gone right in this entire disaster. nothing has. the other thing, the other big news today is that government lawyers are going back into court today to try to get that deepwater drilling ban reinstated. the 5th circuit court of appeals will hear the arguments today in new orleans. there's one-hour oral arguments and then the court is expected to rule perhaps in weeks. chuck and savannah, back to you. savannah, how come he gets to go to aspen? >> anne, you know, by the way, chuck, i did not put anne up to this. anne, i think you raise an excellent point. this is one of the reasons we think you are one of the finest reporters here at nbc and a question that i'm sure our viewers are asking, as well. how did chuck get this gig? i don't know. >> reporter: yeah. >> asked the tough questions. >> we're in sweaty places. >> quite unfair. anne thompson, great job. thank you. >> reporter: bye. >> bye. we'll move on now and at the pentagon today the military's launching a major effort to get a read on how the rank and file feel about plans to repeal don't ask don't tell. jim miklaszewski joins us from the pentagon. is this a survey? >> reporter: that's right. they consider it a necessary first step toward the paft of repeal of don't ask, don't tell. the pentagon is sending out 400,000 e-mail surveys to active duty national guard and reserve service members to get their opinion on the possible impact of don't ask, don't tell. they'll be asking such questions as, how would you feel about serving with a gay or lesbian in the same sleeping quarters, shower facilities, bathroom facilities and the like? those survey results have to be returned by august 15th. at the same time, they will release a second survey to family members of service members to get their reaction to the possibility of the repeal of don't ask, don't tell. and on the survey, although they're all confidential, those gays and lesbians currently serving in the military will have an extra layer of confidentiality. they can click on a separate site for comments anonymously without fear of being singled out, identified as a gay or lesbian and forced to separate the services as the law requires. military and pentagon officials say this is not to determine whether don't ask, don't tell should be repealed but how best to repeal it with the least amount of disruption to the services, particularly those involved in two wars. savannah? >> hey, mick, very quickly, i understand general petraeus in afghanistan may clarify the, quote, rules of engagement for sole iesoldiers on the ground i that war. >> reporter: well, these rules of engagement involve air strikes and nighttime operations in which many civilian casualties occurred. and general stanley mcchrystal when he was the commander put in some strict guidelines to prevent those kinds of things happening but what the military's found out is some commanders overinterpreted those rules so as not to return fire and launch air strikes putting americans on the ground under fire in peril. so what they're going to try to do is clarify the rules and highway to interpret them. >> okay. jim miklaszewski at the pentagon for us, as always, thanks very much. all right. well, sports is making big news today. the king, the self proclaimed king holds court tonight as millions are expected to tune to find out where lebron james will be playing next season. darren ravel joins us now. the rumors are flying it's all about the heat, making this from connecticut. do we read anything into that? what are the tea leaves saying? >> as you know, chuck, it is all about rumors. first staying with the cavs and then going to the heat and then going to the bulls. yesterday, he was going to the knicks. so much so that msg stock, the parent company of the knicks, madison square garden, up 6.4%, trading at 8 times the normal volume. everyone thought it was the knicks. he was hearing at a steakhouse allegedly even though he was in akron at the basketball camp. yes, this morning, both espn having the show called the decision and newsday reporting that lebron is leaning towards miami. i have no idea how at this point he hasn't made a decision considering he has a show 12 hours from now. but yes. and that certainly driven a lot of ticket requests to the heat who are going to sign both chris bosh and dwyane wade. they could get the three biggest free agents here. you go on the miami heat website right now. they say due to an overwhelming request, they can't accommodate any tickets. but i just called online and the cheapest price right now for season tickets is $6,450 per seat and that's face value. >> wow. how about that? miami heat might actually sell out their games in an actual season as a native, i will be shocked if that's the case. darren, on top of the story. follow darren on twitter today with good stuff. thanks very much. >> thanks, chuck. all right. still to come, president obama's top adviser for domestic policy melody barnes joins us here in aspen. as president obama hits the campaign trail out west today, we are checking in on the upcoming midterms. and yes, there will be math. the bbc's katie kay and number crumpler extraordinaire joins us next. but first, a look at the president's schedule. he is on the road today. did we mention that? anyone for ice cream? we got it on rollback. that's what i'm talking about. blue bunny premium ice cream. i know you want it. [ humming ] this is my ice cream dance. ooo, peanut butter. obviously we are getting much, much closer to the fall elections and the president will -- will have -- will do more things leading up to that. but i think he's -- he has been very involved in -- in raising money and in making an argument and he'll certainly continue to do that. >> well, as if the president didn't have enough on his plate, he is on the road trying to help democrats maintain control of congress. >> the talk in washington is that holding the house may already be a lost cause for democrats. but let's look at the numbers. for that, we turn to stu rothenberg. let's lay it out as we go here. for republicans to gain control of the senate, they have to have a net pickup of ten seats, of the house, 39 seats. let's start with the house and give us the most likely scenario. >> well, remember. they need to net 39 in the house, savannah, but losing a handle of their own and need to knock off 34 hr 35 democrats. right now, we believe the republicans have substantial gains, 25 to 30 range. other people who are talking 35, 40, 45. it is a big year and won't know until later in the year how big but the republicans have a chance. the house is in play. i think that's absolutely true. >> now, stu, going to the senate here, you know, history says the house never flipped out the senate and directly elected senators. it seems as if ten is a tall order. and yet, just this week we get, you know, more news and more n confirmation of another senate seat and wisconsin and in play and 12 sitting on the table there that republicans are targeting for democrats. you know, do you feel like, you know, what are your prospects at this point on the senate side? >> chuck, talking about the senate a year ago and somebody raised the possibility of the senate flipping i would have thought they were delusional. now it's still a long shot and can't rule it out completely. you're absolutely right. there are a handful of races on the board that a year ago were nowhere near the board. states like california, wisconsin, washington. ten is an awfully big number. and it is in some ways bigger although it seems bigger. it's smaller than 39 in the house talking about far fewer seats in play so i think right now the republicans likely to gain between 5 and 8 seats but kind of within spitting distance of 10 and far enough states now with competitive challengers, competitive candidates i can't rule it out completely. >> we showed the republican senate seats in play. there are five of them. which to you are the most vulnerable? >> right now, i'm becoming more uncertain daily about florida. obviously, it is a three-way race. the democrats have their own primary. savannah, i thought early on in assessing what would happen with charlie crist as an independent that significant republican support peels away from him and would become a two-person race, the republican and the democrat. we haven't seen much of marco rubio lately. kind of disappeared and charlie crist with the blood pressure oil leak to use, to demonstrate the leadership and authority and hands on. the polls show he's hanging on there. this is an uncertain race. i don't know if there's a republican or democrat. >> we don't know who he would caucus with. >> the big question. >> yeah. all right. >> thanks. now we bring in katy kay for bbc. i want to bring it up to a little bit of 30,000 feet and take advantage -- >> up here in aspen, you mean. >> technically 7,555 feet give or take a couple of yards. take advantage of your bbc aspect. we just saw in great britain a change election. we have seen a change in japan. we have seen a change in australia and now this change atmosphere. are we talking the economy is suddenly making everything, everybody in western democracies anxious and wanting change from your government? >> i think you are quite right and goes back to the economic shock. wasn't just america and europe but went right around the world has populations feeling uncredibly uncertain and unemployment rates going up and debt ratios going up and left people nervous and when they're nervous they're looking to the leadership and thinking are you the right people to lead us out of this? interesting thing that's happening now between europe and america is this kind of split on approach to resolving the economic crisis with the europeans saying, listen, we have the debt ratios. look what happened to greece. we must start making spending cuts. cameron made the cuts you could not imagine this administration making, particularly with four months to go before a national election. >> katty, as the president steps up campaign activities if missouri and nevada today, i mean, how do you see this? is it a no-brainer that having the president come campaign for you is a plus if you're a democrat? or is it more of a mixed bag? >> i think it's not a no-brainer. i mean, look. how long have the president's coat tails been in elections over the past 12 months? not particularly long. kind of ragged. they must be making the calculation that it's worth having him throughout, particularly for fund raising i guess it is worth having him out there and in missouri talking about jobs as well as having the candidate by his side and critical. look, there are four really important numbers between now and the midterm elections and those are the four job report that is come out at the end of july, august, september and october. and what the white house is hoping is if they can get incremental approval -- improvement across the country on the jobs numbers then that gives them a chance, a better chance in the midterm elections and for all americans, that's what we're all really focused on is whether this unemployment rate can start coming down and why the president's not just campaigning but talking about jobs, as well. >> more of a selling of the economy and not the democrats. >> yeah. what the administration needs to do is look competent on this. they need to look like they're on top of this and moving in the right direction and not out of control and i think what the republicans are trying to say is they don't have a plan on jobs and criticism ahead of the president's visit to missouri is going to be a small green factory, produced 50 jobs and we have lost thousands of jobs and that's what the administration needs to focus on, as well. you can't just focus on 50 jobs. that is not nearly enough. the pain is so great that you need a much bigger plan than that. >> enjoying the altitude of aspen, thanks. still to come, andrea mitchell. plus, in today's "decision 2010," vitter going on record. they warn the race will get dirty. but first, "washington speak." bushback. this is the word to lit cos use and overuse for a proposition and rather than tell you, let's show you an example. here's the president in the oval office this week pushing back on a reporter who suggested the israel-u.s. relationship has a rift. listen. >> let me first of all say that the premise of your question was wrong. and i entirely disagree with it. >> ah, there you have it. pushback in action. if you have "washington speak" to clarify, send us an e-mail. chuck, as we know, the pushback can be more heated and uncomfortable than that but whatever. >> particularly from the aides, yeah, that's for sure. >> yeah, yeah. we'll be right back. [ man ] to deliver technologies that anticipate the future, today. ♪ and help protect america, everywhere. from the battle space to cyberspace. [ female announcer ] around the globe, the people of boeing are working together. to give our best, for america's best. that's why we're here. ♪ fifteen percent or more on car insurance? can fútbol announcer andrés cantor make any sport exciting? ha sido una partida intensa hoy. jadrovski está pensando. está pensando. veamos que va a hacer. moverá la reina o moverá el caballo? que tensión. viene... viene, viene, viene... gooooooooooooooool! geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. "decision 2010" time. david vitter went on the record after dodging the press. he addressed the resignation of aide who was arrested in 2008 for assaulting a girlfriend but remained a staffer in vitter's office into june of this year. a charge vitter called old news. >> the event was two years ago. the discipline in the office was two years ago. >> what kind of discipline in the office? >> anybody else? >> senator, why was he assigned to women issues after you knew about the arrest? >> he was not. >> he was not? >> correct. >> why did you -- >> and that's just, just one of several issues that have been completely misreported. >> at a second campaign stop in louisiana, vitter was asked about what issues he worked on. >> women's affairs? >> that's absolutely incorrect. he handled issues including abortion issues, including several other issues but not women's affairs. >> now, a directory of congressional staffers did list women among the issues he was assigned to as a legislative aide. vitter is comfortably ahead in louisiana. democrat charlie mulinsom trying to run as a centrist yesterday distancing hims