and iran has to live up to its entire national obligations. >> upping the ante. iran test-firing missiles just days before a critical showdown over its nuclear programs. how will president obama respond to this new provocation? war council. the president about to meet with his entire national security team, charting a new way forward in afghanistan. can the u.s. win without sending more troops? the vast right-wing conspiracy. is it alive and well? bill clinton weighing in on whether he thinks president obama is the new target of the far right fringe. finally, caught. 32 years after pleading guilty, then bolting from the country, oscar-winning director roman polanski is back behind bars for having sex with an under age girl. should he still serve time three decades later? >> you stood up for yourself and you're [ bleep ] lucky for that. >> and how anything can happen on live tv. why snl may not have to worry about a fine about that late-night "f" bomb. >> good afternoon, i'm tamron hall live in new york. >> and i'm norah o'donnell live in washington. david schuster has the day off. the white house calls iran's latest missile test provocative, and needs to make a decision about whether to step away from its nuclear program. the response comes after iran test fired a new round of advanced missiles today. these missiles are capable of reaching israel, u.s. military bases and some places in europe. five world powers will meet for nuclear talks in geneva. robert gibbs spoke about what the administration expects from iran. >> they can, as i just said, agree to immediate, unfettered access. i think that would be the least that they can do. >> tougher sanctions could be on the way for iran. senior administration officials say those could include a cutoff of investments to iran's oil and gas industry. and restrictions on many more iranian banks. one call is professor middle eastern history at the university of michigan and the author of several books on iran. professor, good to see you. thanks so much for joining us. are sanctions going to do the trick? >> well, sanctions never have done the trick before. iraq was under sanctions, and it devastated the iraqi economy. what really did the trick in iraq was thorough u.n. inspections. people don't often give them the respect they deserve. but those inspectors found and dismantled all of iraq's mass destruction program. so i think the demand by the white house that iran open up completely and transparently to inspections is key. >> that is key, and something that hillary clinton was very clear about yesterday on "face the nation," saying it's time to essentially put up or shut up. those are my words. but about showing what they have. let's listen to what she said. >> the iranians keep insisting, no, no, this is just for peaceful purposes. well, i think as the russians said in their statement and as we believe, and what this meeting on october 1st is to test, is fine, prove it. >> what about that? this secret facility? any sense that the iranians will cooperate? >> well, the iranian president mahmoud ahmadinejad has said that the newly announced facility is not hot, there are nuclear materials there now, and it will be open to u.n. inspections. and that's absolutely crucial to reassure the national community. if iran drags its feet on that, if it doesn't let inspectors into the new facility, there is a strong suspicion that it might be put to weapons purposes. >> and let me ask you, too, about the russians, because certainly the russians have an interest with iran being so close by them, and neighbor, and, of course, there are huge interests in iran. any indication that russia is willing to get tougher with iran? >> well, the prime minister, vladimir putin, who we all think actually runs things, has said no more sanctions. and the chinese also have indicated that they're uncomfortable with tightening sanctions on iran. both countries do a lot of business with iran. and china in particular imports a lot of petroleum. so it may be difficult to convince them. but i think if there is one thing that would do it, it's a big facility like the new one that is not being inspected and is suspicious. >> no doubt. thank you very much. we appreciate it. >> and nora, now to "the bigger picture," reaction from inside iran. the head of iran's nuclear program said he was shocked by the west's angry reaction to the revelation of iran's second uranium enrichment facility. nbc news, tehran bureau chief joins us live. i want to start off with these tests. the long-range missile in particular, knowing that it has the capability of reaching israel or some u.s. military bases. what kind of message was iran trying to send to the west and others who will be meeting october 1st? >> well, tamron, they were flexing their military muscles. they were saying that they're a force to be reckoned with, and they want a strong arm going into these negotiations. one of the leading generals of the revolutionary guard said today this is a show of iran's might, and we're a country to be reckoned with. so they're using this as a tough negotiation tactic. >> and speaking of negotiations, do we know the direction or the tone iran will take on october 1st? certainly no one expects them to suddenly throw up arms and agree to everything. >> well, tamron, the expectation is apparently low. president mahmoud ahmadinejad has continually stated this is iran's sovereign right to have a nuclear program, and that any meaningful talks on a nuclear program are off the table. he has been very clear about that. he said he'll talk about global issues, et cetera, but the nuclear issue is off the table. so the expectations have got to be pretty low going into these meetings on thursday. >> and what are the -- i can't say that all -- i don't want to put you on the spot to speak for everyone, but what is the tone from the iranian people, knowing that they're a cause for sanctions and powerful allies like china and russia? >> well, the grass roots people are deeply concerned about sanctions here, because it will have a direct effect on their life. in the four years i've been here, three sets of sanctions have been imposed on iran, and in these four years, inflation has quadruple he would, so people are very, very worried that the economic situation here will become even worse with the new set of sanctions. >> all right. nbc's ali aruzi, thank you very much. and that's a great point. obviously, nora, that ally makes about the hardship, and you heard president obama mention that, as well, the hardships of the iranian people, if there are sanctions and putting the government on the spot. in if a sense, putting the government against the turmoil that the people will endure if there are more sanctions. >> yeah. we've already seen the arrest in iran already this year. all right, tamron. also want to update you on the breaking news at the los angeles airport. officials now say no threat was found aboard flight 22 to new york which had been delayed indefinitely from taking off. the threat was triggered by a passenger who insisted on using the rest room as the plane was taxiing to the runway. he and two other men were removed from the plane. tom costello joins us now from washington. and tom, what's the latest with these new details? >> reporter: well, the fbi and the lapd both tell us they do not believe there was a thing here that was any criminal intent or any terrorist intent. what happened was, this individual apparently decided as the plane is rolling down the tarmac that he had to go to the bathroom. right then. got into the rest room, and was in there for about a minute, and when he got out, the flight attendant noticed that a panel in the restroom had been moved or had been removed. she asked him what happened, he said, nothing. she alerted the pilot, the pilot turned the plane back to the gate. the fbi and the pd, lapd have been investigating. sources say this suspect claims that he got confused. he couldn't figure out how to use the water, he thought maybe there was a problem with the water turnoff involve or turn on valve and was messing with it underneath the water spigot, if you will, inside the rest room, and that's all he was doing, it was benign. nonetheless, this clearly got a lot of people concerned, returned to the gate, they removed him and two traveling companions. they have been questioning all three men and believe no charges are likely and that it was a fool hardy thing to do, but there was no criminal intent. >> tom, do we know, was this passenger a foreigner or an american? >> we don't know. although we have an nbc producer on board who claims that all three were speaking arabic to each other, but we don't know their nationalities. we do know they were supposed to go from l.a. to new york and on to cairo. >> all right. nbc's tom costello with those latest details. tom is always great reporting. and tamron, just goes to show you i think a lot of people are on hair-trigger with the arrests that have been made in the last couple weeks. >> absolutely nora. and eight months after making a miracle landing in the hudson river -- on the hudson river, captain chesley "sully" sullenberger has a new job in addition to his flying duties. he will now work as a management pilot, joining the usairways safety management team. it was back in january when "sully" successfully landed flight 1549 in the hudson river without a single fatality, thank god. "sully" says he has had some unforgettable experiences since then, but has missed working with his colleagues. pretty cool and interesting guy. >> yeah, back to work. all right, coming up, a look at the legal case against oscar-winning director roman polanski, arrested for having sex with an underage girl three decades later. also, inside the taliban, rare insight into america's enemy in in afghanistan, as president obama considers a pivotal shift in strategy. you're watching "the big picture" on msnbc. bossso word's gettin' out that geico can help people save in even more ways - on motorcycle insurance, rv, camper, boat insurance. nice work, everyone. exec: well, it's easy for him. he's a cute little lizard. gecko: ah, gecko, actually - exec: with all due respect, if i was tiny and green and had a british accent i'd have more folks paying attention to me too... i mean - (faux english accent) "save money! pip pip cheerio!" exec 2: british? i thought you were australian. gecko: well, it's funny you should ask. 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[ with nothing burieine print. according to a study presented by better homes and gardens, definity color recapture. it corrects the look of wrinkles and discoloration. 50,000 voters. one brilliant winner. we're back with developments today following the arrest of oscar-winning director roman poe han ski in switzerland. >> polanski will fight extradition to california. he is wanted there to face justice for having sex with a 13-year-old girl back in 177. meantime, friends in poland where polanski has dual citiship, urged for him to be freed on bail and hillary clinton to grant clemency. he was arrested saturday as he arrived in zurich to receive a lifetime achievement award. joining us, former u.s. attorney kendall coffee. thanks for joining us. we certainly appreciate it. people are asking about the timing here. roman polanski, according to reports, he has a home there in switzerland. he has had a number of ski vacations. it wasn't as if he thought he should hide in switzerland. so what can we learn from his timing here? >> well, first of all, he -- whatever he was doing in switzerland, he had to know that there was an extradition treaty, and he was in harm's way the minute he left the safe haven of france. but i think what probably stirred up the interest was recent documentary, 2008, about roman polanski, raising questions about the whole issue. so a fugitive situation that was sort of asleep all of a sudden flared up and got the interest of the d.a. in los angeles. the rest as we we know came down with the arrest in zurich. >> some have said it's not a good idea that, it could take a long time, that it would be in his best interest, if you will, to come and face the music. >> well, i think very well so. because fighting extradition in his situation is almost hopeless. there's no real issue. the u.s. has a very firm, effective treaty with switzerland. in fact, it was sponsored by president bill clinton. it is, of course, his wife, secretary of state, who is going to be asked to take steps to enforce the treaty. and why put himself in a situation where he is incarcerated for weeks, for months? who knows, maybe even years if they want to keep fighting it out in switzerland, when inevitably, he will face the music in los angeles. >> kendall, i've struck how many times i've heard today people say this was 1977 and there was a judge who may have not had -- may not have been the most honorable of judges. is that relevant at all? >> well, i don't think it's going to matter much. from the standpoint of law enforcement, a fugitive that's living a life, having a good life overseas, not facing the charges in the u.s., is an eyesore. and they will not negotiate almost always -- won't negotiate with fugitives. the position of law enforcement is come home, then we'll talk. fugitives often say, don't want to take that chance. i would rather walk. here, of course, he walked right into the arms of swiss authorities, and sooner or later, he's going to be back in a los angeles courtroom to finally get the sentence that he has been, frankly, running from all these years. >> so kendall, you think that the secretary of state, hillary clinton, will reject polanski and his lawyers' appeals and allow for him to be extradited? >> i think she will. i'm sure she is going to be very respectful to foreign 2k3w069. but at the end of the day, it was a crime under u.s. law. by today's standards, it's considered a serious crime. and i do not see hillary clinton failing to back up law enforcement in her own country in order to accommodate for foreign officials about a very controversial record that in the eyes of the u.s. law has been all these years a fugitive from justice. >> and one more question. if and when roman polanski is brought back here, i imagine he will be placed blind bars, because he is a flight risk. what is the process following that? i'm sure his attorneys will try for an appeal, but he has a conviction here. >> well, he has already pled guilty. when he comes back to the uds, it's for the sentencing. there may be some post conviction issues that they're trying to raise. we have been reading about that over the years. but i think the likelihood is going to be that he will be sentenced, probably not a very long jail term under all of the circumstances. but it wouldn't surprise me if he gets some jail time, and at least he can put this behind him. at least the cloud that's followed his life for 30 years will dissipate. >> and one more question for you. a lot of people are bringing up the fact that the victim, 13 at the time, now a grown woman, does not want to proceed forward here. that she -- i think the description was, wants this all to go away. is that relevant at all at this point? >> it's highly relevant. there's great concern about what victims feel, and if that victim comes into court and says, no jail time for roman owe lan ski, that is the best thing he could hope for. >> interesting. all right kendall coffee, thank you so much. former u.s. attorney. nora, fascinating development. i've heard the news, both of us were knowing that this man, this great director, had fled the country under these awful, and if you read the reports, disgusting charges that he was convicted of. and now we're at this point where he may be back here to face that. it's interesting. >> yeah. that's right. and you asked a great question to kendall coffee about whether they'll take into account her wishes, the victim's, and so maybe he could come back, plead guilty, and then would be released. i have a feeling this is a story that we're going to be following for the next couple weeks. with the new twists and turns. >> and nora, kendall said they would take her statement in consideration, but there are some other legal analysts who say that they would not, because she was a child at the time, and there are law to say protect the victim, as in the case of domestic violence, or people who are victims can sometimes be intimidated. so you need the law to prejt you. still ahead, new fears about this year's swine flu season. look at this video. hospitals so overwhelmed by the flu, they're treating people outside in tents! >> unbelievable. but first, a debut to remember on "saturday night live." whoa! >> ooh. >> whoa! >> potty mouth. >> "big picture" on msnbc. ♪ i was feeling at home ♪ had a poor credit score ♪ and the number would haunt me wherever i'd go ♪ ♪ thought i'd move to a place where my credit could stink ♪ ♪ and nobody would care ♪ i just wish that somebody had told me ♪ ♪ that place was a renaissance fair! ♪ ♪ free credit report dot com! tell your friends, ♪ ♪ tell your dad,tell your mom! ♪ never mind, they've been singing our songs ♪ ♪ since we first showed up with our pirate hats on! ♪ ♪ if you're not into fake sword fights ♪ ♪ pointy slippers and green wool tights ♪ ♪ take a tip from a knight who knows ♪ ♪ free credit report dot com, let's go! ♪ legal vo: offer applies with enrollment in triple advantage it's not always easy living with copd, but i try not to let it hold me back... whether i'm at the batting cages... down by the lake or... fishing at the shore. i'm breathing better... with spiriva. announcer: spiriva is the only once-daily inhaled maintenance treatment for both forms of copd, which includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema. i take it every day. it keeps my airways open... to help me breathe better all day long. and it's not a steroid. announcer: spiriva does not replace fast-acting inhalers for sudden symptoms. stop taking spiriva and call your doctor if your breathing suddenly worsens, your throat or tongue swells, you get hives, or have vision changes or eye pain. tell your doctor if you have glaucoma, problems passing urine or an enlarged prostate, as these may worsen with spiriva. also discuss the medicines you take, even eye drops. side effects may include dry mouth, constipation and trouble passing urine. my doctor said i could be doing more to breathe better and now i am. announcer: ask your doctor about lifestyle changes and once-daily spiriva. 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