Desk is going to go through them. We have with us Political Editor and White House Correspondent for the huffington post, sam stein. Chairman of deutsche inc. , donny deutsch. Morning joe analyst and economist, steve ratner. We have the great Mika Brzezinski walking in from the night shift where she did way too early. 11 days left, and were getting new poll numbers, National Poll numbers, state poll numbers. In colorado, in nevada. Now, these two swing states were states that the president won in 2008 and hes fighting to hang on to now. According to the new nbc poll, in colorado, this race is dead even. 48 48 among likely voters. The president s fivepoint lead from a month ago gone. In nevada, the president s holding on to a threepoint advantage, 50 47 in nevada like we said yesterday stubbornly staying in the president s column. Thats actually a slight uptick for mr. Obama from last month, mika. We should note this polling was conducted after the third and final debate. And if there was any doubt about romneys momentum, look at what happened in virginia. A new fox news poll shows romney now leading by two points. Last month the same poll had obama up seven. And in the abc Washington Post daily tracking poll of likely voters, romney has taken a threepoint lead, 50 47 . On monday, the president was leading 49 48 . And on the economy when asked who voters trust more on that issue, romney now has a sizeable ninepoint lead. So you look at these National Polls, mika, abc news Washington Post poll showing a fourpoint lead in the National Poll. This week. A fourpoint swing in the National Poll. Gallup, of course, has had mitt romney ahead i think way too much over the past week or two. Sometimes five, six points. And in the National Poll, it really does seem if you take all the polls, it really does seem like mitt romney is moving away from barack obama. And yet you go to these swing states, nevada, Holding Steady for barack obama. Colorado, still deadlocked. Virginia, slightly going to romney. Weve said we expect the south to go that way. But yesterday, a time poll had the president five points in ohio. Last week, an nbc news marist poll had the president up five points in ohio. It seems like we could and i said could could be moving towards a scenario where mitt romney wins the National Vote and barack obama wins the electoral vote. This could be as close as ever, if possible. In the waning days of this election, by the way, the president ial campaigns have surpassed an incredible benchmark. Total spending has topped 2 billion, putting the race on track to be the costliest in american history. According to federal elections data, the campaigns are doling out nearly 29 every second on rallies, banners and, of course, advertising. President obama told Nbcs Brian Williams last night that he sees the prolific spending as a real problem even in his own campaign. The amount of money that is being spent in my campaign and mr. Romneys campaign and the super pacs that are out there is ridiculous. There is no reason why i believe we can interpret the constitution in a way that allows us for some commonsense restrictions on the amount of money spent and the manner in which its spent because for us to have folks writing 10 million checks undisclosed, having huge sway in this election, and just the sheer amount of waste that could be used more profitably in other areas doesnt make much sense. So this is an issue that, in a second term, ill raise. In the remaining days inside a campaign, joe, where do they spend it . How do they spend it since they have to spend it . They need to spend it on getting out the vote, and nobody has a better getoutthevote operation than barack obama. A lot of republican insiders say that president obamas team actually may oneup what karl rove and ken mehlman did in 2004 which was historic getoutthevote operation. Well see. If this things close, sam stein, and it looks like its going to be close, thats going to make a big difference. But what do you make of the divergence between the National Polls where mitt romney, does he not seem to be moving ahead . And these swing state polls where it remains neck and neck. I didnt realize we were going to be talking politics today. I thought i was going to be the latest exhibit at the met. You know, we were talking about this off set. We have a very static race, i actually think here, where you see mitt romney up two or three Percentage Points nationally. Obama has that stubborn lead in the state polls. People i talk to on both sides say at some point something will converge, either the national or state polls or vice versa. Like steve and i discussed off set, i dont necessarily see why that would be the case. Im not the geek you portrayed me to be. Yes, you are. Well be the judge of that. Theres no reason why ohio would have to necessarily reflect the trend nationally. I do think youll have a situation where obamas going to get clobbered in the south. Hes not going to see the same margins of victory he saw in 2008. And hell probably hold on to some of these swing states. And youll end up where he could very well lose the National Poll. Lose the National Vote. And win the Electoral College vote. Thats never happened before. Its happened before with george w. Bush, and thats how we elect president s, and they know that. They know that this is a game of Electoral College game. It really is splitting, though, donny, isnt it. You see the National Vote pulling away from the president. You know, if its 500,000 votes, a million votes, 2 million votes, thats one thing. Its 3 , 2, 3, 4 like some of these polls suggest, youll have a lot of people scratching their heads the day after. Again, like sam said, these are the rules. It is what it is. Nobody has any right to whine. You know going in what the rules of the game are. That said, that would have some people scratching their heads. It would. But there are two major things i look at right now. The first and obvious one that if i put in the category of obama, ohio, 4 , 5 , that doesnt seem to be moving. The math, as we all know, doesnt add up for romney if he doesnt win ohio. Hes got to win ohio. The thing that i see in romneys favor at this point, and i go back to carter reagan, the what the heck vote. Id like to use a word other than heck but i wont because this is a nice family show. I think early on people who are bee grijingly sticking with gulf of mexico begrudgingly sticking with obama, what he did in that first debate gave enough people, i think, even if its not showing up in the polls yet, you know what . When the yeah, theres enough to go over there. Im not going to stick with this guy. And i think if theres any surprise in the polls, i think its going to swing in romneys favor. Im starting to think that, too, mika. This is, again, were getting so close. The president s still sitting at 47 , 48 in a lot of the nationally positives. You know, turnout can get you a percentage point. But if mitt romney keeps moving in the direction hes moving, thats different. If somebody has a cell phone on, you need to turn it off, Steve Rattner. I was just about to go to the financiers chart. Steve rattners always had a blackberry and its never been a problem. Littleknown fact for kids at home if you want to be on morning joe, at t signals interfere with whatever were wearing. But im getting brain waves from it. Its inspiration. The reason why. Thats actually the first time a call has ever gone through on your at t phone. Come on. Lets talk about ohio. Youre digging into the numbers there. This is getting so frustrating. Because a poll comes out that shows obama five point as head in ohio. Immediately everybody screams on the right, oh, its plus 9 democrat. Its skewed. The polls are blah, blah, blah. You hear the same thing on the left when mitt romney started moving ahead. Liberals started saying oh, the poll samples cant be believed. I guess were all trying to figure out early voting and how it plays into this thing. Ohio does seem to be right now still in the president s favor. Every elections a little bit different in terms of turnout, in terms of early voting becoming more prevalent so you can never be sure, but i think its pretty consistent. Let me show you another poll which is not the polls you guys have been looking at but a poll that we financier types look at which is in trade and what the market is saying. And so, in fact, if you look at this, youll see that obama has consistently been ahead in ohio. And not surprisingly, before the first debate when he was on a roll nationally, he also was on a roll in ohio. And the odds there were up to 80 . And then, of course, romney had his surge. And just about got back to even with obama here. But now its pulled away again. And, in fact, even since yesterday when we did this and he was at 59 , hes actually moved to 63 on the intrade poll. Theres one more poll to throw into your mix about whats going on. Historically, how reare those intrade poll . 49 out of 50 states in the last election. Well do an intrade update next week right before and you can all see whats happened. Intrades been up the 60s, 70s. Right around 60. Its been hovering right around 60. But a lot of money has been moving romneys way. When you look at all these different numbers, steve, whats your gut . Obviously, mitt romney gaining a lot in the south. But the midwest, thats still the battleground. Its still the battleground, but i think with sam at least i think i know where sam is when you actual will i look at it state by state and you look at ohio and iowa and even New Hampshire and nevada, it just seems so consistently just ever so much in obamas column. And it doesnt seem to be moving. And even like the places where it has come close, colorado and virginia are now everyone you talk to say those are the tightest races, right . I know we had the fox poll up, but theres been other polls showing the flip in virginia. Those two places are basically 50 50 propositions now. The obama team thinks of it like this. Those are sort of safety valves. They can try to, you know, churn out a victory in colorado and virginia if ohio somehow goes to hell. And theyre happy by the fact, you know, this is spin, obviously, but theyre happy about the fact that at this stage in the game mitt romney still has to pour in tons of resources in colorado, in virginia. By the way, if mitt romney wins ohio, hes going to win virginia and colorado. You would think. They are no safety valves. Thats why, you know, i wrote a post a couple days ago for politico that said either obama wins in a tight race or romney wins big. The only reason why is if romney wins, he wins ohio. Yeah. And if he wins ohio, hes made up a fivepoint disadvantage in ohio which would carry him over the top in colorado. The only counterpoint to that and i dont know if this is valid is that when you do have a sophisticated ground game, which everyone agrees the obama team has, you can sometimes get a couple Percentage Points against that surge. And it can matter in a state like virginia, for instance. Right. But, again i understand what youre saying. Hes five points down in ohio. I dont think hes down by five points. According to the latest two polls. If theres a surge that takes him over the top its going to be everywhere. In ohio that obamas incredible ground game in ohio cant stop, then katie, bar the door, florida, north carolina, virginia, colorado. They all are going to swing. Especially because ohio is the center of america. And you cant say oh, thats just ohio. Thats not going to have an impact to the rest of the country. Can you respond to the psychology . Because obviously the polls and i think we all agree as you go state by state. The point i made earlier as far as the psychology when its this close right. That do you go new or stay old . I keep going back to Reagan Carter, and what scares me as a democrat, what the heck. Im a behaviorist. And thats what scares me. So heres the deal. You are a behaviorist. I will tell you in every election ive ever seen, in every poll ive ever read, in every incumbent ive ever talked to, if youre under 50 , if youre under 50 , you know, a week and a half out, youre sweating bullets. The burden of proof is against you that youre going to get reelected. Thats my point. So if the president s sitting at 47 in polls, boy, id be shocked if he won. Hes at 48 in some of these polls. So thats my gut. That said, hes got an incredible ground game, and a lot of early voters are coming out, and theyre voting for barack obama. So you have if youre a behavioralist, and i am, too, when it comes to these things, if youre undecided about barack obama and youve known barack obama for five years and youve followed him for five years and hes been on the front page of the newspaper for five years and hes been on your tv set every night for five years, and everybodys been talking about him for five years and you still dont know if youre going to vote for barack obama, history would suggest thats my point. Youre not going to swing in the last ten days. That said, youve got to go to the other side of it. And the other side of it is and im not hedging. These are just the realities that we have to weigh. And this is why nobody in the obama camp and nobody in the romney camp knows how this is going to end. On the president s side, you look at an extraordinary turnout operation. That operation got george w. Bush reelected in 2004. You look at that. And you just wonder, Steve Rattner. I will say this. In 2004 at this point, george w. Bush had a 51 , 52 approval rating. This president is still below 50 , so its hard to tell. I get the behavioral thing, and we all know what happened in 1980 when in the last few days people sort of said im not going that way. But i think whats different here is the fact that the economy is actually Getting Better and people are perceiving it Getting Better. There was another gallup poll out yesterday which has not gotten as much attention where for the first time in five years, more americans think theyre better off than think theyre worse off over the last four years. And the numbers are very similar to what they were in 2004 and in 1984. 1984, the reagan landslide. Exactly. I get that point. I think obamas got the ground game, and i think he does have a bit of momentum from the economy. If were going to talk about behavioral psychology, there is one more jobs report coming out on the friday before the election. That could sort of mean what steve was talking about which is that people think the country is going in the right direction. And i agree, but lets look at this Washington Post poll again, this abc news Washington Post poll, when americans are asked who they think will do a better job with the economy, 9 . 9 more say mitt romney. So romneys Still Holding that builtin advantage. So you dont know how it breaks, but you are exactly right. That gallup poll was an eyecatcher. I tweeted it immediately because 38 of americans think things are Getting Better. 34 say worse. Thats a change. That hasnt happened in four or five years. And again, the numbers are about the same as they were in 1984 when Ronald Reagan won 49 states. And if you look at other numbers like consumer confidence, like optimism about the economy, theyve all turned up in the last few weeks and months. And thats on the back of better news in housing, better news on jobs, better news on a bunch of fronts. And in ohio it has its own story especially with the bailout. Ohio has its own story because of autos. This weekend, by the way, joe and i will be on the campaign trail with president obama. Well be speaking with the president at one of his Campaign Events in New Hampshire. Well also talk to senior white house adviser valerie jarrett. Hold on a second. What . Why is his picture bigger than mine . I dont know. Why dont you finish counting words for way too early, and then well look at that next. I cant read. Thanks, t. J. No, really, this is, like anyway, well have an exclusive conversation with the president. Well be airing it on monday on morning joe. Very exciting. Well be up at nashua. And New Hampshire, a swing state that could make a big difference. Think about this. Lets say mitt romney wins in the south. And we talked a little bit about this yesterday. But mitt romney wins in the south. They split nevada and colorado, which i think a lot of people thinks going to happen. And somehow mitt romney wins ohio and New Hampshire. Hes then at 268. The romney people think and we talked to some maine guys last night think that romney wins the second district. And that locks it at 269269. Does New Hampshire matter . Yeah. New hampshire matters. Thats why the president s going to be up there. Well be there, too. Coming up this morning, chuck todd, moderator of meet the press, david gregory, president ial historian Douglas Brinkley and the Washington Posts eugene washington. Is president obama losing his edge among women . Thats one of the stories in the politico playbook. First bill karins with the latest on Hurricane Sandy. Good morning. If you want to know the latest on sandy, the trend was a little further to the south, a little more impact for areas like virginia, delaware and maryland and maybe a little less impact in northern new england. First things first, the hurricane is only about 150 miles due east of West Palm Beach this morning. Floridas going to get brushed by the storm. Periods of rain, gusty