welcome to "morning joe." joining us onset, the former governor of pennsylvania, msnbc political analyst ed rendell. host of politics nation, reverend al sharpton. the senior policy advisorior, jimmy williams and in washington columnist for "the washington post" and msnbc contributor ezra klein. wait. there's more. senior contributor of the daily caller matt lewis. welcome all. happy holidays. hope everybody had a good christmasment time to get down to business. one week away from the voting in iowa. we saw mitt romney making a big push. governor rendell. that was one of the big questions whether mitt romney would play in iowa. he is playing in iowa. >> well, i think he saw a field that was so weak and didn't have any clear front-runner that he might actually wind up stealing iowa. if he steals iowa and wins big in new hampshire like the polls indicate he will then the nomination might be his right then and there. it's a little bit of a gamble but a pretty smart gamble. i've never seen anything with a week to go where you can't predict who is going to win or even come close. you can't predict the top two. >> it is remarkable, reverend sharpton. you look at the polls. you've got ron paul, newt gingrich, mitt romney all bunched right there. you couldn't call this race right now if you had to. >> this is after a procession of flavors of the month going up and down up and down. so i think that i agree with the governor that the romney people are probably just deciding to have a different strategy. i don't think this is what they originally intended to play in iowa but i think that with the implosion of so many flavors of the month the last being mr. gingrich and now ron paul having his day of turbulence it's the right move for them to make. they could actually pull it out, which is something no one expected which gives them a bigger than life image going into new hampshire. if he pulls that out it will look like a wrap. >> let's listen to what -- was it mike huckabee was talking about this the other night. he made a prediction. the guy of course who won iowa four years ago. here's what he said. >> i would probably say that mitt romney will end up winning it today. ron paul because of his organization could and that is where mitt is at a disadvantage. he doesn't have the devotion. if the weather is good mitt romney is in better shape. if the weather is bad tan's tough to get out ron paul will win. >> weather not with standing who do you like a week out? >> i'm still with paul. i still think ron paul is going to walk away with it by one or two. it is tightening. i always thought the iowa caucuses were not the bellwether of what happens when it comes to the nomination. new hampshire and south carolina, florida definitely is. but huckabee, look. huckabee won it. what happened to huckabee? now he's on fox. frankly i'm not sure iowa to be honest is a great bellwether of this all but at this point it is a toss up. >> matt lewis, what do you think now? we have one week out. i went on vacation a week ago and it was all newt gingrich, newt gingrich. come back a week later. now he's fallen and it's mitt romney. where are we? >> well, you make a good point, willie. next week is what matters, right? if things changed in the last week they can change in the next week. i do think, look, iowa on the republican side traditionally hasn't mattered that much but on the democratic side it really has. if you look at what happened with john kerry and barack obama, iowa really gave them momentum and elevated them. i think it could happen. if newt gingrich or rick perry could somehow pull off a win in iowa, which i think is within the realm of possibility although not likely, then it becomes a real race. i think if ron paul or mitt romney win iowa which appears to be more likely, it looks like romney could coast with this nomination. so the next week is really super important as to whether or not this is even going to be a contentiously fought race. >> ezra, what do you make of newt, of romney's message there in the state of iowa? he's up with that new ad we just played saying he is a conservative. he's touting his conservative credentials. on the other side now newt gingrich is backing off his, you know, his promise to not go negative by saying this guy is not a real conservative. newt gingri he's a liberal from the state of massachusetts. can mitt romney make the sale as a conservative in iowa? >> i think he's trying to make the sale as a guy who can win, the guy who has balanced a budget, has executive competence here. but i think this is one of mitt romney's weaknesses right now. what he's got behind him, what his vulnerabilities are not in debates but in tv ads where they show a lot of mitt romney talking on one side of an issue and then on the other. there have been very few commercials so far. it's been a very cheap primary. as the air war starts i think you'll see some weakness for mitt romney. on the other hand it might be coming too late. at this point almost anybody who could be the anti-mitt romney has had their moment and has been judged one after the other fairly unsatisfactory by i think both party elites and voters and the media, etcetera. >> after all this, governor rendell, all these flavors of the month as the reverend put it. here we are again at mitt romney. do you think the republican party has finally accepted that this guy can be the nominee? they've tasted every other flavor and now they come back to mitt romney. >> well, i'm not sure. i mean, if he wins he'll win with 28%, 29% of the vote. i don't know what that says. one thing that was on the tape that i think is very important, caucuses still are about organization to a great degree and mitt romney, newt gingrich, the two so-called front-runners don't have much of an organization on the ground. huge advantage for ron paul. big advantage for rick santorum who is the one candidate that has really worked iowa, worked the retail, been in all of the counties. i wouldn't be surprised if rick santorum did surprisingly well in that tuesday night. >> yeah. one of the senior strategists in a piece for "new york" magazine, senior strategist came out and said essentially i'd be shocked if we weren't the nominee. perhaps not the most wise thing for somebody to come out and say at this point. >> a romney senior strategist? oh, my. >> he was an unnamed senior strategist. >> a good thing. >> that is not wise to say, but i would agree that santorum should not be under estimated. and if he just does well, he doesn't have to win. >> right. >> if he does well he will appear more competitive than we've ever given him a chance. but i think the real problem is that -- and i know even from the democratic side when i was involved in 2004 it's about who can move your people into the caucuses. >> right. >> and i think that it is really telling what huckabee says about the weather because then you're going to have to have organization to mobilize and there i think ron paul with all of this turbulence probably has the edge. so if i was romney i'd be behind every commercial saying a prayer for good weather. >> organization and passion. >> yes. >> that was the point made on that, too. there is not a lot of passion for mitt but there is for ron paul and santorum. >> there is a lot of passion against mitt. >> i like the way you call it turbulence for ron paul. a nice euphemism. newt gingrich facing some questions about his campaign organization. gingrich failed as you may have heard to collect enough signatures to appear on the virginia primary ballot. both gingrich, a long-time virginia resident, and rick perry came up short on the state's requirement to participate in the march 6 primary where 49 delegates are at stake. the gingrich camp on the defensive blasting the virginia system has failed vowing to find its way on to the ballot. gingrich's national campaign director taking to facebook. get this. comparing the campaign setback to the attack on pearl harbor. saying in part newt and i agree the analogy is december, 1941. we've experienced an unexpected setback but we will regroup and refocus with increased determination, commitment, and positive action. the former speaker maintains his staff is working on alternative methods to compete in the state of virginia. >> we're disappointed but it was our fault and we hope to launch a write-in campaign and getting an amazing number of people who believe virginians ought to have the trite choose and shouldn't be restricted to two people. with five different candidates not having been put on the ballot. we'll probably launch a write-in campaign. >> pat lewis the pearl harbor analogy not with standing i love that they agreed on that. we talked about this and we agreed 1941 is the correct analogy. how does this happen? how does a leading presidential campaign not get on the ballot in the home state of the candidate? >> well, i think a couple things, willie. first of all, this is devastating for gingrich. i mean, 46 delegates at stake. this is virginia. it's on super tuesday. it's not winner take all. so even if he were on the ballot, even if he were not, didn't win, but if he came in second, and i think newt gingrich was actually leading in virginia, that means real delegates so this is a serious logistical infrastructure problem. it implies to me that they're not -- obviously not as well run as they ought to be. on the other hand it is fair to say that the virginia rules are onerous. you have people running, trying to win iowa, trying to win new hampshire, and they have to worry not just about 50 states but about, in virginia you have to get 400 signatures from each of the 11 counties so it is a bit onerous but at the end of the day newt looks bad by not getting on it. >> what does it say about the gingrich campaign at the end of the day? i mean, this is humiliating. >> doesn't have a campaign except in name only because he's the former speaker of the house. look, i don't know what virginia's requirements are and i am a resident of the commonwealth of virginia but also not running for president. let me be clear. >> thank god for that. >> thank god. >> i don't know. are you in the field? >> i'm probably more conservative than mitt romney and i am a democrat. >> we can move one more left. >> if i can get on the ballot, right. next thing gingrich is going to do is blame the germans for blaming pearl harbor. this guy is a fraud. i mean, it's not like newt gingrich lost his speakership when they lost the house of representatives. his own party threw him out. >> right. >> so it's gaffe after gaffe. we all declared he was dead in the summer with the tiffany's stuff and he came back. but that's largely i think because of romney because of his lack of conservative credentials. but to your point earlier about santorum, if santorum is nipping on his heels like that, that sets up for the next primaries, a huge, interesting battle right between a real conservative, a crazy conservative, but a real conservative, and mitt romney. gingrich fades away in my opinion but it's embarrassing he couldn't get on the ballot in virginia. >> i think it's more than just a setback in virginia. i think if you're a republican supporter you look at that and say, god, 400 signatures and 11 counties? not so hard, willie. gosh. campaigns for governor and attorney general and auditor general do that just like that. >> ezra? >> actually speaking to something that is becoming a big deal in the republican primary, right? running a campaign is a test. it is a test in and of itself. it's a microcosm of running something much larger and much more important which is the federal government. and three of the major alternatives to mitt romney have come out with massive shows of administrative incompetence. newt gingrich and rick craig couldn't get on the ballot in virginia and ron paul if you take the most generous possible interpretation of nis newsletters wasn't reading what was being written under his own name. when folks sort of bounce back and forth trying to find an anti-mitt romney at some point when these people get serious and actually win a primary or come close to it the question becomes can they actually be president? not are they conservative or an interesting candidate but can they become president? a couple of them at least are providing good reason to doubt they can simply do the organizational tasks that come far beyond any type, any of the visionary leadership, you know, great man of history stuff that newt gingrich likes to talk about reverend sharpton, that's why i asked the question about the party coming home to romney. they watched this play out over the last ten months or whatever it's been. they've seen all of these other people come through and maybe now is the moment where they say mitt romney is the only guy we can elect to beat barack obama. >> well, i think he just said the key point. before you even get to whether they can run the federal government, can they go up against an organization like barack obama. >> right. >> so before, if i'm a republican, god forbid, and i'm looking at this as who would be my candidate, i'm looking at this awesome organization that barack obama demonstrated in '08 and i'm looking at people that can't make the ballot, that don't read the newsletter. i'm thinking i'm going to compete with this? >> right. >> so forget getting into the federal government. how did they compete with president obama? and i don't know if it's about coming home to romney. it might be coming to romney. i don't know of a lot who feel that's home. >> so that's the question for you as a conservative. how does that play out? i mean, a lot of conservatives don't like the way that mitt romney has conducted himself as a governor. but at the end of the day, they want to win this election. so what do they do? >> right. so we're at an interesting crossroads right now. look. if the election is about process, if it's about competence and who can fill out spread sheets and get on ballots, mitt romney is your man. if it's about ideas, about passion, mitt romney is probably not your man. but at the very minimum you expect republican candidates to at least pass the threshold of credibility. it makes me wonder, where is tim pawlenty right now? tim pawlenty, he would be the guy you turn to, right? we finally throw our hands up. okay. we're not going to have -- no savior is going to rise from the streets. we hate mitt romney. who sort of is the middle ground? it would be tim pawlenty if the guy hadn't dropped out of the race. >> tim pawlenty is gone though. rick pitino about larry byrd, tim pawlenty is not walking through that door. what do you do then? you have a guy, you say he's the candidate of the spread sheets but mitt romney may also be the only guy who can beat president obama. what is the answer? >> i think it's going to be mitt romney at this point. look, somebody, you know, again, if newt gingrich or rick perry catches fire in iowa, that could give them the momentum but if i'm a betting man today i think it's going to be mitt romney and this is going to be the republican party that says, we don't fall in love. we fall in line. this is going to be bob dole. it's going to be, you know, whoever, the next guy in line is. and maybe that's enough though. maybe that's enough this year to beat barack obama. we'll see. >> bob dole and john mccain perhaps. >> there you go. >> two guys who went on to lose. we should point out. >> there you go. >> we'll continue this conversation coming up and revisit some of the biggest interviews of the year here on "morning joe" including our visit with oprah, larry king, and walter isaacson, who of course wrote the blockbuster book of the year, his biography of steve jobs. plus, history now made in new orleans. drew brees passes dan marino for the single season yardage record. highlights of monday night football and first bill karins with a look at the forecast. >> hey, willie. i heard you talking earlier about the weather in iowa a week from now. our technology is now getting good enough we can at least get a general idea of what the weather is going to be a week from now. i just looked up the iowa weather a week from today. it looks absolutely fine. no big storms in the middle of the country. so take that for a grain of salt as far as turnout goes. as far as today's forecast, today is the worst travel day of the week. we are seeing heavy rain on the eastern seaboard. everyone from atlanta to florida and eventually up to the big city. we've even got a little white stuff this morning. it is now snowing moderately in st. louis with minor accumulations. such little in the way of snow. this is only an inch or two but no big deal. areas of indiana, eventually that'll shift into ohio, pittsburgh, cleveland, buffalo, syracuse, you're all going to get a little bit of snow. maybe 1 to 3 inches at most around 4 or 5 at higher elevations. in the east today the bottom line, bring the umbrella with you. so it will eventually start raining in d.c. the middle of the morning. new york city the rain will move in late in the afternoon. boston you have to wait until tonight to get your heavy rain. as far as the southeast goes that's where it's going to be windy and stormy with even thunderstorms rolling across florida. we'll update the forecast including airport delays during "morning joe" today. you're watching "morning joe" of course brewed by starbucks. ♪ i believe in dreams again ♪ oh, yeah ♪ 'cause i believe in you and me ♪ ♪ oh, boy ♪ i believe in miracles ♪ and i believe in you and me ♪ ♪ see, i was lost ♪ now i'm free ♪ 'cause i believe in you and me ♪ welcome back to "morning joe." looking at a beautiful live picture. met life stadium at the meadowlands. big game there tonight. we have a quick parade of papers. miami herald absentee ballots will be key to florida's gop primary. so far, nearly 400,000 florida republicans have requested absentee ballots meaning half the votes in that state could be cast well before the january 31st primary date. a new "the washington post" analysis breaking down the divide in wealth between members of congress and their constituents. financial disclosures show over a 25-year period the wealth divides to $725,000. the average wealth of the american family dropped about a hundred dollars. members of congress get richer. the campaigns also breaking the bank. survey finds these days the average amount spent by a successful house candidate is $1.4 million. that number has quadrupled since 1976. jimmy, want to get you in on this. i watch you and dylan rhadigan 4:00 msnbc. get the money out. you guys have been big on that message. you've read this "the washington post" piece. not just about the income disparity. >> right. >> but about the money and politics. a million and a half bucks for an average house race. what do we do to change the game? >> think about it like this. a smart member of congress, they wake up, go to a breakfast fundraiser. that is an hour. then they go to the committee hearing. who is there? the same lobbyist at the breakfast. then they go to lunch, a fundraiser. more lobbyist. i used to be a lobbyist for full disclosure. then another committee hearing. same lobbyist. then they go to a cocktail party. that's a fundraiser. they go to a dinner. that's a fundraiser. they just spent 75% of their legislative day raising money and about 25% of the day actually getting to know their colleagues and legislating. and you wonder why congress doesn't look like the rest of america? seriously? it's a joke. >> so it's been a year of hand wringing over money, who's rich, who should be rich. >> sure. >> and why congress isn't looking out. that's really the central message of this occupy movement. the game has been rigged inside washington so we know it's rigged. we know the game is b