every passing sinking poll number, republicans are wondering, is this the team we want on the field? the serial stumbling and the gop is turning the whispers into cries. is this as good as it gets? could a third party candidate emerge? what would that do to the race? plus, reversal fortune. now that bob mcdonnell has backed down but only partially on the ultrasound bill, who is happy? not republicans who accuse him of backing down and certainly not democrats who say he didn't go far enough in backing down. but democrats are taking the issue as a way to deepen the gop's already serious problem with women voters. and president obama singing the blues this week reminding us he's not the first commander in chief to ham it up. ♪ was that good or what? that was bill clinton on arsenio. richard nixon hit the piano. and american presidents who are also, well, besides commander in chief, they also are "american idol" wannabes. finally, let me finish with rick santorum's strange notions about phony theology. we begin with last night's debate. howard fineman is director for "the huffington post." and susan page is a bureau chief for "usa today." when one of the many frictions last night between rick santorum and mitt romney in the two-hour debate -- was it only two hours? romney figured out a way to blame santorum for president obama's health care plan which was a model on romney's own plan in massachusetts. he turned the tables by setting santorum's support. who would have thought arlen spector would ever be mentioned again? let's watch. >> a study came out two weeks ago that listed 15 ways in which romney care was the model for obama care. the real fundamental issue here is government coercion. >> the reason we have obama care, the reason we have obama care is because the senator you supported over pat toomey in pennsylvania, arlen specter, the pro-choice senator of pennsylvania that you supported and endorsed in a race over pat toomey, he voted for obama care. if you had not supported him and we had said no to arlen specter, we would not have obama care, so don't look at me. take a look in the mirror. >> you know, romney had his amen chorus there last night. watch a little square shoulder. a little perfection. you can imagine them in the audience all doing what they were told to do. goody two-shoes applauding on command. are we allowed to say the word piss ant on television? this debate was small. a debate about who is going to command us in the world. we're fighting the chinese. we have terrorism still out there. we have to deal with iran. and they are sitting there talking about, well, you know, all those years ago, you backed arlen specter. give me a break. mickey mouse club. am i wrong? help me here, susan. objective reporter. objectively, wasn't it really petty last night? >> you know, it was not one of those -- we've had some good debates. >> yes. >> i mean, we've had 20 debates. you would hope some of them would be good. last night was a debate of candidates who know they may not have much time left on stage. after next tuesday's primary where romney could be in real trouble if he loses michigan. santorum could be fading fast or surging. so you really find them trying to pick things to differentiate themselves from the other guy. and push it home. it was a debate that left president obama all pretty scot-free until the very end talking about foreign policy. >> if anybody only had one day to live, would they live it last night? was that anybody's idea of life on this planet? it was so -- i love politics. i love it so much, but what were they talking about? >> first of all, to say it was about republican intramurals was to overstate what it was. they were getting deep into the history of legislation and legislative maneuvering and trading folks in the senate. >> whose earmark with the bridge to nowhere and the olympics? i'd like to never hear about those again. >> our friend simon said rick santorum sounded like he studied at the bob dole school of debating. >> here he is. santorum trying to defend his record as a former washington senator -- not the baseball team -- who championed earmarks by claiming romney took earmarks for the olympics. here it comes. be ready for the excitement. >> unfortunately, attacking me for saying i'm this great earmarker when he not only asked for earmarks for the salt lake olympics in tens of millions of dollars, sought those earmarks, and used them. and he did as the governor of massachusetts, $300 million. $400 million. what happened, there was abuse. when abuse happened, i said we should stop the earmarking process. but i did say there were good earmarks and bad earmarks. >> i would put a ban on earmarks. i think it opens the door excessive spending. spending on projects that don't need to be done. there are a lot of projects that have been voted for. you voted for the bridge to nowhere. while i was fighting to save the olympics, you were fighting to save the bridge to nowhere. >> they are trying to get the job that teddy roosevelt once had. and teddy kennedy and ronald reagan. and they are looking like they are trying to be gerry ford. >> well, that's a good point. romney clearly wanted to get under santorum's skin. santorum was in a position all night where he was getting engaged in discussions about how the earmark process works. you know you've gone too far into the weeds when in fact, at one point, romney had a pretty good line. i don't know what you're talking about, but let me make this point i want to make. for romney who wants to portray santorum as a washington insider, santorum did the business for him last night by trying to explain washington processes that a lot of americans think don't make any sense. >> susan and howard, we know the problems facing this country. the reason people watch programs like this is they are real. we have an unemployment situation which is endemic, it's chronic. we're never getting back to 4%. let's talk about that. let's talk about the fact we have real competitors in the world now like chin and south america. we have terrorists out there who get up every morning thinking how to kill us. and these guys are talking about earmarks. >> this is a case of tactics overwhelming any larger vision. it had been several weeks since the last debate. it gave the tacticians inside of each campaign way too much time to think of tiny little maneuvers. >> i know. >> rick santorum played right into it as susan said. this was a huge missed opportunity for santorum. >> yes. >> what he needed to do was say, forget about all that legislative baloney. here's my vision. if he had gone to the top of the polls, he needed to enlarge -- >> so well said. inside, he bored into the past and this legislative maneuvering. it was a terrible mistake. >> susan, we know he has a message. he wants to build a republican party and a presidency that's looking out not just for the rich, but for the sons of italian immigrants, people living in parts of the country that have been left behind economically. the older people in pennsylvania who he said don't have the money to go to arizona and florida. they are stuck living on pension checks and social security. if they are lucky to have pension checks. this is a real important challenge out there for people living on this planet. it often seemed that ron paul was on team romney. i want to talk about some of the double-teaming. talk about double-teaming in basketball. he, too, went after rick santorum like he's working for romney. what does he want to be? head of the post office? what job are they going to give him? calling santorum a fake. right on the air. let's watch the exchange. >> congressman paul, you have questioned the fiscal conservative credentials of all of these gentlemen, but particularly this week, santorum. you have a new tv ad that labels him a fake. why? >> i'm real. i'm real. >> congratulations. >> i'm real. >> i find it fascinating when people are running for office, they are fiscally conservative. when they are in office, they do something different. >> howard, why are we watching ron paul? he's never going to be president of the united states. ever, ever, ever, ever, ever. he's not actually running for president. what was he doing last night? >> i think he's calculating and expecting that in the end, mitt romney, somehow or another, is going to struggle his way to the nomination. therefore, mitt romney will control the convention. although barely. and ron paul wants air time and attention and a platform at the convention. and i think would like, somehow, to perhaps, have some kind of role in economic -- i know it sounds crazy. >> the networks aren't going to give him time. the broadcast networks aren't going to let ron paul give a big primetime speech so romney can't really deliver, can he? >> if that's what's required for peace and to keep ron paul from walking out of the convention, that's what he'll do. >> do you have any theories about what the game is here? what is exactly ron paul seeking from the good will of romney? >> you know, i think ron paul is someone who, unlike a lot of politicians, believes what he says. he's been saying the same thing -- >> why is he spending all this time on santorum? >> for whatever reason, he and romney seem to have a friendship that's been useful for romney to have somebody else on stage that's willing to hit at the anti-romney person of the night seems to be. he did the same thing on gingrich. >> are they pinned for this semester? what do you mean they like each other? >> there's another theory here. >> susan, you don't think it's about affection do you? >> i think ron paul is motivated by his ideas. he wants to effect policy. you have seen the republican party on big issues move in his direction. i agree he's not likely to get the nomination, but that doesn't mean he won't have an effect on where the republican party stands. >> let's go to your newspaper. i walked past the stand this morning and you had an amazing headline there which squares with my psychology right now. you have some new numbers in the "usa today"/gallup poll. they are bleak for both the president and the republican field. 50% of registered voters judge president obama's presidency as a failure. 44% think it's a success. that's a tough assessment. 44 positive, 50 negative. and republicans did not seem thrilled with their field of candidates either. 55% wish someone else was in the race. only 44% are pleased. what an opportunity this seems to create, at least here in late february, for some third option. >> absolutely. now, who would it be? i don't know. how would they get funded? i don't know that either. but it's not only the dissatisfaction with both president obama and republican rivals, it's this general sense the country has gotten off track. what really struck us is this is a time when americans are feeling better about the economy. there's more optimism. the economy is growing now. six out of ten think it will be growing in a year. yet that hasn't lifted the views of any of the political leaders. >> it's so interesting. they don't really like the leadership of the country. >> the approval rating of congress is about 12%. looking at the number of people in the republican party who want another candidate even at this late -- >> so the president's 44 is pretty good? >> that 55% of republicans saying give us another candidate here, that's the highest percentage ever. >> it's appropriate. >> that captures the general mood. >> last night was a reasonable explanation. i don't see how they got a good number. i don't think that turned on the audience. anyway, thank you. howard fineman, thank you, buddy. thank you, susan. coming up, fears are rising on the right that the republicans are kicking this election away. they had a great chance. the people aren't there. the candidates aren't looking presidential. now a new worry. could a third party come along to the right of the winner of the republican nomination that could take away their votes and get the president re-elected? 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[ male announcer ] you do, business pro. you do. go national. go like a pro. new poll numbers from my home state of pennsylvania. let's go to the "hardball" scoreboard. according to a new poll, rick santorum has a huge lead over mitt romney in april's republican primary. santorum at 45%. romney just 16%. a 29-point spread. look at how santorum and romney match up against president obama in the general. the santorum advantage is gone. the former pennsylvania senator trails obama by 8 in his home state, 45% to 37%. same spread for mitt romney, eight points. obama is up over romney. 41/33. we'll be right back. they came to see us in florida... make that alabama... make that mississippi. the best part of the gulf is wherever you choose... and now is a great time to discover it. this year millions of people did. we set all kinds of records. next year we're out to do even better. so come on down to louisiana... florida... alabama... mississippi. we can't wait to see you. brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. to find you a great deal, even if it's not with us. [ ding ] oh, that's helpful! well, our company does that, too. actually, we invented that. it's like a sauna in here. helping you save, even if it's not with us -- now, that's progressive! call or click today. no mas pantalones! welcome back to "hardball." with voter unhappiness with the republican field and judging president obama's presidency a failure, our "hardball" strategists are here to discuss that fact. first, if americans don't like what they are seeing for 2012, could this year really bring a third-party candidate to the presidential race who matters? and two, all this talk of contraception, religion, gay marriage, even satan, which party has the edge when it comes to the culture wars? here are the strategists. democratic steve mcmahon and todd harris. steve, i think when you look at these numbers, and i have been very cautious about the delight about the president's people that are all popping balloons out in chicago way too early. the economy hasn't got into that lift yet you need for a real recovery. and republicans certainly are blowing it as much as they can. but i don't think this president has been re-elected yet. do you agree with that first of all? >> yes. >> okay. the republicans have not shown any greatness yet? >> not yet. >> so there's an opening for a third party. if it's romney, if he pulls it out, suppose it happens, is there a bigger opportunity for a third-party candidate to emerge down the middle, somebody out of new york? somebody backed by this elite group? a bloomberg-type, pro-choice, somebody fiscally conservative, somebody wall street really respects. or a great opportunity for some guy far out like ross perot, somebody who is sort of a cowboy, libertarian, but somebody way out there? >> i think there's a better chance of getting votes if it were somebody like bloomberg or donald trump with some credibility, not donald trump, who could actually run against the system and the politicians that have been controlling things for so long. >> you mean go around the republican. >> it's like for a ross perot. a modern day ross perot. >> let me ask you about that. do you buy the fact they can't go to the right or left of romney, they have to go around him. they have to grab pieces from around the territories, not just one chunk. >> if it were to happen, which it's going to the going to happen, the way you would win is not through -- >> this is a lot like '92. isn't it? >> it's not the ideology you would win because you have the character attributes the other two guys are missing. the history of third-party movements have been personality driven. they have never been environmentally driven. you have to have the person. >> before you have the profile, you have to have the person. let's take a look. former presidential candidate and current romney supporter jon huntsman called the republican party broken. he weighed in on that third party question. question. >> i think we're going to have problems politically until we get a third-party movement or an alternative voice to put forward new ideas. that ain't going to be me, by the way. i know the next question. i'm not interested in that. >> he's not exactly pushing romney's. he says we need a third party. are you sure he isn't sporting for the job? i think huntsman makes the most sense of a guy to scatter his support, some liberals even like him. can he scatter enough to get 20% and make a showing? >> no. i don't think he can. he would have been the strongest republican nominee, but he couldn't get nominated. >> why not a third-party candidate? >> there's not enough vote left. the most interesting person is buddy roemer. he used to be a democrat. now is a republican. rails against big money in politics and against the system as it were. the president with the move into the super pacs is making that case a little easier for someone like that. he did it for good reason. he had to do it because the republicans have raised so much, but it does create an environment -- >> let's look at the situation. if you're counting strategies, the swing states that mattered the most, voters see the gop nomination battle as weakening the republican nominee so far. that's 53% of those people in the swing states say this whole primary season has hurt. only 21% say it strengthened the eventual winner. >> i think it's awfully hard when you're right in the middle of the battle to see this is something that could strengthen the nominee. but four years ago in the middle of the clinton/obama fight, i don't think many people were looking beyond the here and now, the immediacy and thinking eventually this is really going to help us. but obviously -- there are still schisms -- >> i think it was a strong contest of two strong candidates. i never got the feeling they were killing each other in the general. >> that's exactly the point. >> i don't agree with that at all. >> "the washington post" did a study and found 6% of the ads four years ago were negative. over 50% of the ads so far that have been run so far are negative. in the same poll, mitt romney's favorable/unfavorable ratio is 27/57 in those states. it's a net negative 30. those are places he hasn't campaigned. they are just reading and seeing and learning about him. >> let's talk about women. three guys here. let's try this. it's dangerous territory. i think we can punch this out, though. all this talk about contraception, abortion rights. all this talk about theocracy from santorum, this stuff from the women i work with is a major turnoff. they say why are you getting into the bedroom again? why are you telling us what we can't do in our society when it's always been seen as a personal thing, contraception. >> this is my view. let's put the specifics aside. some people have strong feelings on both sides about this. but the fact is that when you look at poll after poll after poll, what is this election about? it's about jobs and the economy. i was just -- i got out of the field in a battleground state. >> why is everybody talking about contraception? your whole party on capitol hill. they want to pass a bill up there to overrule the president on giving women free contraception so we'll have less abortions, i would argue from my point of view. that's the good part of it. >> i think most republicans would argue that the specific bill on capitol hill that that's about religious freedom. in the case of santorum, you cut the guy some slack in that he's typically answering the questions that the media a