I also voted for obama. With the 19 about or is it too late . First time for republicans. It wouldve been good for the tina immigrants, the president. The bastards who are desperate for change the concession is latinas. Come out and play i believe President Trump [speaking spanish] dont put that aside for any political party. We are two days away from the election, its incredibly tight. The control of congress for key votes and key states, and thats why latinas, americas largest minority, with 30 million eligible voters have never been so powerful. Ive spent the last year traveling across the country, talking to the tina butters, trying to figure out who they will come out for. And so latinos have consistently overwhelmingly voted for democrats. But that feels like its beginning to shift. A poll came out today and said the interest in the midterms as heights been since 2006. Now, its 56 for the democrats. The democrat advantage for latino voters has shrunk by half in the past decade. You can see the last president ial election, when donald trump improved his showing among the to know voters by about ten points. You can see today, theres a reason that the former president was stumping in miamidade, where latinos make up 70 of the population. Theres a reason that has minority leader Kevin Mccarthy with a majority the tina was in texas. Theyre trying to defend one seat and get to others. Republican see something, an entry point, and making a big play for the latino vote this time around. Just 48 hours, we might have more clarity, or perhaps more confusion on it. About whether or not the strategy is paying off. Im joined by four people years and decades, trying to understand how the teen is eroding, and why. We have Nbc News National Political correspondent, democratic Vice President of heart resurgence icy. And of course ceo and a star panel. Im very privileged to be here with all of you tonight. Thank you very much. Well start with you, because its in other words, to tell you that here. I might have to take advantage of that. Lets talk big picture, where will the latina vote matter the most . It is strange not to be standing next to a board, so hopefully this will still work. Look, the battle for the senate right now is the highest profile of many highprofile races putting it on tuesday night. It couple estates at the senate level obviously, weve got the largest populations in nevada which comes to mind. Between 15 and 20 of the electorate in nevada is hispanic, heavily concentrated in court candy, thats where most of the population is in nevada. And the las vegas area, basically. And another state that i think about a decade ago, democrats and republicans both had thought that nevada was not so much a swing state as it was becoming a blue state. Now it has become a swing state again. Both 2015 and 2020, democratic candidate by two and a half points. Interestingly, if you look really close in nevada in 2020, the trump did a little bit better in that clark county area in 2016. He actually did worse, and with irena speaking to whats going on there. Some inroads and some gains for trump within hispanics. In the las vegas area, nevada, and republicans are just looking at that data, they believe the day can work nevada, that might be all they need for that senate. Similar story in arizona, incumbent there as a very large population. A very close election in 2020. You can even talk about colorados being a restate for republicans, its got a large population. In georgia, theres a rising hispanic operation. The metro area has one of the fastestgrowing shares of the population, and obviously its a tight senate race there with Herschel Walker and raphael warnock. It could be meaningful. Youve studied this so many times, your polls were great. You really look at the issues that are driving the scene of voters, but more than anything youre trying to see who gets it. Your polls find that latinas trust democrats when it comes to abortion, health care, democracy, education, their values. But the trust starts to really fade when were talking about the economy, were talking about border security, over talking about crime. What more are you finding . Tell me more about that . For the very First Time Since they asked a question of latino voters, latino voters are giving republicans an advantage on for the First Time Since we asked this question. And so thats notable right there. Yes, democrats have the advantage, but especially with every other issue. Abortion, health care, education, you name it. This key issue that i now essential, it is notable that republicans for the first time are going they trust republicans more. You have to ask yourself, whats going on here . One group im starting to specifically is not educated latino. [inaudible] in 2016, 18, 20, it cant just be that the reversal of it a little bit. And so when you consider that state of the economy, throughout all of these elections, you begin to identify a democratic messaging problem. We know that Lieutenant People are with us on these key issues. The thing is, thats not on their agenda in an affected way. And you asked question, whats going on here . They wanted people to have the polls, i think that the one thing that is clear is that yes, democrats will continue when the latina vote, and youll also see those margins decreasing, not slowly, but steadily, decreasing. Congresswoman alexandra was trying to answer that question of, what is going on. I want to take a listen, owner here would she had to say. I can say with latino voters, we never tried as a party. The Democrat Party is not for you in terms of the latino electorate. What was your reaction when you heard . One of the things shes putting out there is that latino can care about immigration, its absolutely an issue that we care about, but its not necessarily a voting issue. Its very much the economy right now. I have to talk about, you see how latinos are not monolithic, its very true. But it has everything to do with the country of origin, unless youre from florida, and everything to do with generation, and so yes in 2020, she couldve time latinas voted for biden, but thats because they were over the age of 40. If theyre under the age of 40, the biggest opportunity for the Democratic Party is among the young latino voters. You got georgia, the candidates are about 4 of that electoral base, and are about 20 of the classrooms. The Aging Inability to know population in arizona nevada, and georgia, is overwhelming. The only place, the only state where young latinos are not florida. Thats why you have this policy, they very much are attracted to individuals because they oftentimes have the voting, and it comes from Different Countries where they have very volatile systems, and are more conservative. Youre saying is generation, but i think that another thing the color that symmetry was it was all latina backed, specifically man the departing from the Democratic Party. Something that we saw very clearly in 2020, and specifically in states like North Carolina in nevada, they start to look specifically at latino men, what do you think about that . The latina men . Youre seeing the genome and perform like White Working Class voters. I think that theres a number of explanations, here but probably the most important ones culture. Republicans are connecting culturally with these voters. These are men who came to this type of work, they came here to provide a better life to their kids, and a lot of them send money back home. They have trouble identifying with the discourse that we sometimes hear from the far left. They are rejecting this person, theyre embracing this vision of america. You hear a lot of republicans talking about how this country is the greatest country in the world, its really emphasizing the plot of this country focusing on the attributes. That is really resonating with these voters. They are moving quickly towards republican. I would jump in and say then as everyone here, the gender gap among latino voters has always existed. Its not new, 2016, theyre just always been there. In 2020, we had a Turnout Issue in that latino men did turn out in high enough numbers as we expected. That changed the composition of the election, and we do see the benefit from having more the genome and show up at the polls. A lot of them are disproportionately impacted when it comes to decisionmaking, lets look at the crew. This Latino Community, who is targeted, its latino men. African american men, and so its not a surprise that a lot of the information that theyre receiving encourages this idea of culture. If one of the Biggest Challenges that i think the democrats and republicans have done wrong is that they have basically stolen the idea that there are cultural tropes. They actually support abortion, that is a cultural will get into all of that in this discussion. Gender dynamics, but really quickly before we get a break, when the plane pulled close on tuesday, what are the key races that youre going to be looking into . Are there indicators to sort of dive in for a way that latino voters will vote . First thing will look for at 7 00 is floridas fast vote counting today, miamidade county. Rubio was at miamidade county, we can tell you all about it. But its a 30 plus democratic points and republicans maintain that. Are they actually going to improve it . Is the team carrying . Is there a congressional feet there. Reelection, democrats believe that they have a vote by one point in 2020, they believe they have a shot. Im a ceo shes doing so that we can give you an early recap in florida, about 8 00 eastern you talk about texas, those three districts right on the border. Their unique dynamics for all of them, but you see some of the counties that make up those districts, being more dramatic than any county in a country, 70, 80, 90 plus counties. Amazing, we get to all of this in a couple of minutes. Coming up, the travel for some of those key Congressional Districts, and the extremely tight races, and whether the latino vote will determine which party takes congress. All of that, up next. You have respect you have respect rty. Look what i brought Liberty Mutual they customize your home insurance. So you only pay for what you need young people having a good time with insurance. Young people. Good times. Insurance only pay for what you need. Liberty liberty. Liberty. Liberty. 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So, if youre at high risk and test positive, dont wait. Ask your Healthcare Provider right away if an authorized oral treatment is right for you. Among my patients, i often see them have Teeth Sensitivity as well as gum issues. Does it worry me . Absolutely. Sensodyne sensitivity gum gives us the dual Action Effect that really takes care of both our Teeth Sensitivity as well as our gum issues. Theres no question its something that i would recommend. Okay, youre looking for a really good indicator which we were going on tuesday and which we latinas are going, Go To Virginia Ripple Places are among the first to close on election night. Seven Congressional Districts, one of the most competitive house races in the country. In virginia, [inaudible] [inaudible] happiest moment of my life, being in virginia. We did it democratic swab today. People spoken. This year, District Seven is also a Breeding Ground for the public strategy to win control of congress by highlighting crowd. Democratic soft on crime policy. Climate and immigration, theyre bringing drugs. Theyre bringing crime. Attracting latino voters away from democrats. Hispanics are rallying to our cause. You can see all of that work in the seventh Congressional District. The new district where we could see a big part of one of the outer suburbs of washington, d. C. [inaudible] one of the fastestgrowing regions of virginia. The most diverse. Are you guys from the Seventh District . Were you from . Where is your extended family from . El salvador. I was born here. Latinos make up 29 of the population this county. [inaudible] linking crime and immigration to policy. With respect to the countys Legal Immigration program in 2007, this county which deputizing Law Enforcement to essentially act as ice agents, checking Immigration Status and handing them over for deportation. The program is known as 3 17, traumatized many in the community. How might them listed they destroyed because of the two 87 . Two 87 g, stop. Im tired of saying are people getting criminalized. Im tired of seeing over policing communities. [inaudible] with a four tonight and doesnt represent our community. We have a guy that doesnt represent our community. What you know, put his upper in your mouth when you talk about my community. Okay . Republican boards supervisor, shes now the republican nominee for Congressional District seven. When we win on november 8th, i will be the first hispanic and the commonwealth of virginia to represent as a congress. Vega is one of at least 16 republican latinos who won this partys nomination for congress. Former Police Officer and daughter of salvador immigrants. She was endorsed by the [inaudible] obviously, youve been a big supporter for two 87 between the county and ice, people [inaudible] that is a very, very important [inaudible] the people that took the time to meet with me, okay . To talk about it. When we explain to them what the program was, they were completely on board. Vega has been a long endorser of a campaign by [inaudible] rnc the worst phone call of my life, that my brother had been gunned down near the killed by ms13 gang members. I decide to join bob for some, protect others in need and protect our communities. Now, joe biden and radical democrats [inaudible] horizon drug and crime in our community. You see this National Spike in crime. Why . Thats what the democrats have been pushing, the defund the police. The National Crime rate. You look at this date but has the highest rates. Youre talking about a blue, its red states that have the highest rates across the country, right . I politicizes issue . Lets talk about chicago. Sure. Lets talk about california. I dont think youre comparing apples to apples. Every time type of crime, you tend to talk about it from a democratic lens. Heres at the side the coin, right . Look at how theyve been able to track a legal status . Theyre not prosecuting. Theyre actually lowering the charges. You would be for harsher doesnt im saying. Im saying youre sending a message to criminals. Hey, come to our county, break the law. Youre going to get away with a slap on the rest. That is a horrible message to send. Im Abigail Sandberg or, we have one mission. To serve and protect america. To congress, i was a mission. The democratic incumbent, formers [inaudible] running on a platform. In 2018, she went to District Seven. Decades of republican seats. Im honored to stand before you as the congresswomanelect. What would you say is the big difference between when it comes to policing and keeping this Community Safe . The biggest offense is i have voted every chance ive been given to increase funding to our police. The tops program, a federal Grant Program for the Legal Community Police Departments and sheriffs departments. [inaudible] its common to hear big On The Campaign Trail leading Democrat Spike in crime. We close your eyes and hear adds as a big long its like a republican to speak a. And your ads, bigelow keep us safe. When given the opportunity to vote for police ade is that in this republican law in Order Messaging . Its my whole background. Overall, the county has significantly run Violent Crimes in the national average. How does become a big focus and political ads. Crevice barking across the country. Dangerous defund the police ideology. We keep hearing about it from voters. What are some of the top issues rivas . Safety. I think one of the reasons that her and i want to vote her is where we live, its not the safest, especially at night. For me, tampa Police Officer not maria, she knows what its like. Are you in favor of more Police Sunday . I think we need a little bit more. In this area. Elsa District Seven, that has many immigrants from el salvador, a controversy over immigration enforcement. People told us they are afraid to call the police. [speaking spanish] [speaking spanish] [speaking spanish] [speaking spanish] why do you think so many white and brown people in this country are afraid of the police . I think its because of the lack of knowledge, the cultural shock, the differences. I always go back to my parents, contrails all, right . In el salvador, the world is very different than it is here in america. When people come here, they dont know about the loss. They dont know about the way of life here. I think that as community leaders, individuals that serve in the capacity that i serve that, we have a responsibility to educate people. Also numbers, right . Black people in this country are two times more likely to be [inaudible] disproportionately impacted by Police Killings and just virginia, if youre black driver, or twice as likely to be stopped by the police and pulled over that white driver. In virginia. I work with black officers, white officers, aged officers. I tell you now lawrence for the Georgia Public Service due never crossed my mind or my fellow officers mind whats skin color this individual thats precisely lifes own party talked about this. You absolutely right. The numbers are also numbers. Im not making that up. Their stats. These are people that are dying. [inaudible] when we talk to your opponent, one thanks to subsidies that she doesnt necessarily believe that there is biases and systemic racism and police forces. What is Police Accountability look like for you . I think its you know, everyone comes to their job with their own life experience. As a community, as a country, we have the right of responsibility to expect the highest ethical behavior as anyone in a position of trust, to include, especially our police. Inner race this tight, both need their message to resonate with the Latino Community. [inaudible] and District Seven, they make up 15 of the voting age population. Youd be in front of a crowd of spanish Picking Latinas that are on the fence, what would you tell us . [speaking spanish] [inaudible] you are a Latina Will Salvadorian parents running in virginia as a republican. If we make it all the way, i would be the first Salvadorian American and his United States to represent them in the house. Who is the first time she . Votes you. Can i take a picture of that . Why do you support her . I really connect with her because we have stories. We both come from el salvador, both have immigrant parents. I connected with her first. Heavy always been a lifelong republican voter . First time will be voted republican . Wow. Anyone else in your family, my mom became a citizen. Shell be voting . Yes. I think its amazing to see because especially [inaudible] to have [inaudible] we met some firsttime Republican Voters that told us what theyre voting for backup because [inaudible] what would you tell those people . What issues matter to you . What impacts your family . And then, as a policy, whos going to set up for you . You know, i looked the way i look. Im a spanish with an accent. [laughs] at times [inaudible] i have been to clean very deeply care about making sure everyone knows, like, im here to represent them, whether they vote for me or not. Whatever voters summit, that electing the first republican latino to represent their district, theyll be turned democratic compass will send a powerful signal about the issues that are motivating latino voters, but they want to represent them, which party takes control compares. Theres obviously a Lot Trump Act there. If you are thinking about latino voters in that district, hopefully, now you are. Well start with you, i know you spend a lot of town specifically in this district. What was your reaction when you saw . This one of you found filipino voters . [inaudible] well when the majority of latino voters in the district. Vegas strategy [inaudible] shift at the margins. And that, [inaudible] she leads with her familys migration story, her aspiring to the american dream, a lot enforcement background. That resonates with latino voters. Heres the thing, thats not all of who she is. [inaudible] what democrats are doing, its reminding voters that she is also allegedly Prolong Forsman [inaudible] she is extreme on a whole range of issue, accusing him portions. Women who are raped have a harder stance on being pregnant. Theyre doing their thing, reminding her and responding and that she cant connect to women with her family values, but her policies, her stances dont align with the latina district. To think that college [inaudible] then you see liz cheney endorsing a congresswoman, which is good, but it signals that she would be in trouble. She needs this type of voice their. Were looking for . You mentioned the lines have been redrawn dramatically. Keep in mind, vanport and other new voters in the district. She previously had to campaign for. It used to be suburban. Now, it is the d. C. Suburbs and Prince William county. In this district that is a current configuration is redrawn and what have voted for joe biden six points in 2020. And 2021 virginia governors race when Youngkin Beat youngkin carried the district was seven points. Its winnable for republicans. I think 2021 result was a big, you know, a warning alarm bell for democrats around virginia that there was a lot of territory like that in a republican, your republican climate could go. For Seventh District, to me, its [inaudible]. Their early test for me. We see republican wave. It went from biden for six points. Its not just virginia. I met with [inaudible] in texas, all of those races are tightening up. Well get into why thats happening, next. Ppening, next. Thick n fluffy french toast. Artisan challah dipped in vanilla cinnamon batter. French toast the way its meant to be. Try all three flavors. Only at ihop. 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That was donald trump in Florida Today making his pitch for voters to turn their back on the Democratic Party. We spent time in florida, a lot of time in texas, virginia. Obviously. We talk to latino republican candidates. Lets you know in texas 34, and vega. The time that we were talking to them, all of these candidates seemed like they were underdogs. The chances of winning over these conversations or necessarily that great. When i talk to her, she was considered an anomaly. In floridas 15 district, she hadnt even won her primary at that point. Vega, we are having a conversation. I wasnt saying her name popup, even on fox news. Here we are, right . How did you analyze the processes, given the Historical Context . Yeah, you mentioned my reform from texas, again, three right there. All lined up together until texas. Theyre all going to be [inaudible] if already move so dramatically in 2016 to 2020, i have the democrats to resume republicans. The dynamic that floridas raised makes it particularly interesting is that the company congressman resigned his seat. We have another democratic congressman from next war look at the redrawn map saying, you know, im going to run in this new district. You have this [inaudible] from dallas who is a democratic incumbent, voting in a new district. Theyre going against each other here. That backdrop is the current Traffic Ration by double digits. It also came down like 20 points. 20 points less than in 2016. Again, if that movement you see. You see it around the country. These counties and deep south texas, you know. Hes 40 50 points from democrats to republicans. Im really curious. We saw that movement. We saw the evolution of these candidates. We also saw the evolution of voters, right . There will be some longtime democratic voters [inaudible] almost black life from [inaudible] a video from [inaudible] this is my interaction with her. Take a look. [speaking spanish] [speaking spanish] [speaking spanish] [speaking spanish] really quick update on her, marina, she is now officially official so, you said, evolution. There republic shows something very different on the ground, specifically when it comes to bush. And what are you saying . Right there, what you saw was a voter who has the one that the pulling away. One of the things that we do know though is that one abortion came out, the majority of latinos have supported and went to against [inaudible] recognizing something that was harmful. Folks dont understand that the majority of latinos are at reproduction age. That is the Largest Ethnic Group that are disproportionately impacted by this. And texas, were talking close to 2 million latinos that no longer have access to abortion care. A serious. So, the very first time polling that we showed, it was actually big deal. Very first time in 18 years that weve been pulling latinos. Abortion is number two. Weve never seen that. Its because, again, we try to make a decision for yourself, the help of your family and your economic issues, you have another child can determine so much. The person that you interviewed s antiabortion, chant for the anomaly of the latino voters right now in this country. 84 believe in abortion access. Way bound that the stories was religion. A lot of these candidates were religious, deeply religious, i think thats a new element, right . Many latinos are traditionally religious catholic. What we found was the way that republicans are deployed, mobilizing the church, evangelical churches. I know you really analyzed this. What does this role play . A voters, it matters what kind of denomination you have. We seek to get their [inaudible] catholics might be conservative on some issues, but they dont vote on antiabortion stances and they are for abortion access. Latinos and angelicals that are increasingly behaving like white evangelicals that theyre becoming more voters. In texas, you know, she is [inaudible] [laughs] democrats by mobilizing that electorate. An issue like abortion. To extend that to Latino Catholics remain supportive of abortion access. And the backlog of all this is a disinformation. The element that is playing a lopez, you saw clearly try to 20 its coming. Its coming. How is that of all . They look, that is a real issue. I think well see it in other parts of the country. I think democrats make a mistake by assuming that theyre losing latino voters because people are being tricked. That is seems that democrats are doing everything perfectly and that these people are reading wrong information, therefore, theyre voting against. Democrats need a lot of assumptions about latinos over the past couple of decades. They have to start challenging those assumptions. Dart about crime, he talked about immigration. Hot of latinos do not support or tolerate ilLegal Immigration. Democrats really dont fully understand that. That is why theyre failing to connect with these voters. Youre also seeing a lot of this on the ground. Hold your thoughts. We will be, no, no, no. I think Everyone Needs to hear that. Still ahead, republicans have been very clear that there campaigning on three issues. Crime, economy, immigration. How that is resonating, next. Resonating, next relax from daily stress. Plus, Shoden Ashwagandha for quality sleep. So i can wake up refreshed. Neuriva think bigger. They say you eat with your eyes first, so heres a good look at our new thick n fluffy french toast. Artisan challah dipped in vanilla cinnamon batter. French toast the way its meant to be. Try all three flavors. Only at ihop. Download the app and earn free food with every purchase. Trelegy for copd. Birds flyin high, you know how i feel. Breeze driftin on by. You know how i feel. You dont have to take. [coughing]. Copd sitting down. Its a new dawn,. Its a new day, its time to make a stand. And im feelin good. 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Tmobile for business has 5g thats ready right now. vo a thin painted line. The only thing between you and a lifechanging accident. But are these lines enough . A subaru with eyesight. kid vo hey dad vo . Watches the lines for any danger. And can automatically stop itself. mom is everyone ok . kid im ok. vo your family is safer in a threerow subaru ascent. Love. Its what makes subaru, subaru. Were back with a special live magician of the report. Were talking about issues with voters. Rt this disinformation only comes up. Were talking about very closely. For the big challenges that were seeing is coming in arizona and nevada where there is that at that is run by [inaudible] the kissing that the Biden Administration [inaudible] having them with gender changing medication. Thats not true. Its language. We the whole purpose of it is to scare parents got by voting democrat, its dangerous. Its nothing different than what we saw earlier with critical race theory, with this claim. The challenge that we seen the Latino Community when it comes to disinformation is that oftentimes pedal the so that people stay home. Not that they vote for the other party, but that they stay home. I considered effort by the democrats to ensure that they are debunking these myths. They have about individual [inaudible] on that misinformation, i feel like republicans are running on this message of the border. The perceived in beijing at the border. Theyre criminals. Come [inaudible] those actions that people see those emissions say, when, minutes some. John thats crawl. Latinos support the governor more than they did before. Whats that tight . Number one, there is chaos at the southwest border. Were seeing Record Numbers of Illegal Immigrants come to the border. Again, a lot of hispanics, latinos, did not tolerate. That they dont think its a. Now its an invasion. Right. Obviously, terminal patient. This is politics. Both parties use hyperbole, exaggerate, try to get their bases motivated. One hispanics are like, well, its okay there to be misinformation. Now, you cant do it with hispanics. Theyre particularly vulnerable. On this issue of immigration, i do think that some people have actually become [inaudible] its a shame, i dont think Governor Desantis should have taken that action. I thought that is a big mistake. But a lot of hispanics are becoming radicalized even on that issue where there used to be a lot of moderate opinion in the Hispanic Community. One of the things that we found mariupol was that immigration is not a top issue for the majority of latinos. Except young people. That is because 16 million americans have mixed status families. And in the pattern arizona where families were documented. It will vote if that issue is on the ballot. Right. We could talk about this. We have to do a whole another Special Report on. This well be back with a lot more. Dont go anywhere. Stay with us. 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