This is, by the way, the first time ive ever campaign for a democrat. Its the First Nationwide vote since an american insurrection. We need to get back to the policies the of the real donald trump. Ohio needs an ass kicker, not ask sir. Now with 36 states voted for governor. Republicans will never lose another election in wisconsin. 35 senate seats up for grabs. You have to know stuff to do this job. All 435 house thats in play. I means that the government is shut down, ill be calling for a government shutdown. And fear that this free and Fair Election would be the last. Make no mistake, democracy in the ballot for all of us. Tonight, special election eve coverage, with nicole wallace, joy reid, chris hayes, alex wagner, lawrence odonnell, ari melber, stephanie ruhle, Steve Kornacki, the big boy, and the msnbc political insiders. Special coverage of the 2022 Midterm Elections begins now. Good evening from msnbc headquarters. Im rachel maddow, joined here in our brand new election studio by my colleagues, nicole wallace, and joy reid, and chris hayes, and lawrence odonnell. Tomorrow is the final day that we can all vote in this years big Midterm Elections. Of course many, many, Many Americans have already cast their votes on this election day eve. We can now report that over 42 million americans have already cast their ballot, that is significantly more early votes than were cast in the last Midterm Election in 2018. And that one overall had record turnout. Americans are turning out in Record Numbers. Now, for folks who are pulling it off to the variant, and have not yet voted, candidates antichoice across the country, tonight, theyre making a frantic final push to try to get voters after the polls. At this hour, President Biden has just wrapped up a rally in maryland, in westmore, the democratic candidate for governor and four other maryland democrats. On the republican side, former President Donald Trump is about to take the stage in ohio, where the tight race for an open senate seat there may decide who controls the senate overall. Trump has previously insulted and tried to humiliate the republican contender for that senate race in ohio, jd vance, but tonight, he is in ohio with tents to support his campaign. Todays new nbc news poll, the last one before the election, finds that likely voters are almost exactly evenly split on which party they want to control congress. 48 say they vote for democratic control. 47 say they prefer republican control. That is a tie. But that same poll also had some unexpected and heartening news for democrats. Since last month, democratic Enthusiasm Levels have gone up, why republicans have decreased. Just a month ago, Republican Voters held a ninepoint edge on enthusiasm about the election. Now, as of today, democrats have caught up, and it is actually even between the two parties. That Enthusiasm Measure is considered an important factor, in terms of who will turn out at the polls tomorrow. But if you have to pick just one thing to learn, one thing to be cognizant of this election eve its this. Democrats and republicans are voting differently, meaning they are voting by different methods. Nbcs new poll today shows that voters who want democrats to control congress voted early by a 2 to 1 margin. Voters who want republicans to control congress are not doing that, by a 2 to 1 margin, pro Republican Voters plan to vote tomorrow on election day itself. Bottom line, the vote for people who would vote on election day tomorrow will lean republican. The early vote will lean democrat. And that is at the one thing to keep in mind as we all head into the incredible circus and joy thats Election Results tomorrow. That is why republicans all over the country have been laying the groundwork for early votes and absentee votes, and mailin votes to be seen a suspect, or somehow less legitimate. Already, republicans have filed lawsuits that have gotten certain early vote ballots tossed out in states like pennsylvania and wisconsin. Republicans, from former President Trump on down, have been telling their supporters that they ought to be suspicious of any vote counts that take a long time. Trump lawyer, Rudy Giuliani today, saying that only the ballots that are tallied in the first few hours should count. And any ballots counted later than that should be seen as a suspect. The reason they are doing this is because in many states, the same day election day votes, the ones that are disproportionately republican, those votes are counted first, only after that do they start tallying up the early votes which lean democratic. So, tomorrow, we should all expect that in many states, the first tallies would look relatively good for republicans, and then, republican leans will begin to shrink as the night goes on, and as the Vote Counting stretches into the late evening overnight into wednesday, and even longer. We know now, to expect how protests from republicans who will insist that somehow suspected, it is voter fraud and Election Rigging going on. They will demand the Vote Counting stop, they will file even more losses on the top of dozens they already have to try to disqualify early voter democratic votes. But knowing its coming doesnt stop it from happening. It does help us know what it means when it does come. But setting those expectations is probably the best thing that we can all do for ourselves, for our family members, for our friends, in terms of being real, being patient, and not jumping to conclusions about tomorrow night results. Joining us now for the first time is the great Steve Kornacki at the big board. Steve, tell us whats important from this big final nbc news this out today . Yes, sort of conflicting signals i think you can say. You had the headline there. That was the likely voter model results, so registered voters, basically saying here though the generic ballot, asking folks which part you want to have control of congress, registered voters that even, 47, 47. If you are a democrat, you spent the year here in about, impending red wave, obviously, this is welcome news for you. In the final nbc news poll before the election. Underneath these numbers, though, there are some pretty strong headwinds that are working against democrats here. Its an interesting test between this number and whats underneath the number. And it starts with this. It starts with the president s job Approval Rating. We have seen, its not common, but weve seen in history some parties defy the trend where the white houses party suffers losses, generally big losses in Midterm Elections. They dont tend to do it when the president s Approval Rating is where joe biden is right now. 44 in our final poll, a majority disapproving, weve seen bidens number hovering in this area for a long time in our polling. To put this in some context, final nbc news poll, for recent president s before their first midterm, you can see it right here, bidens number is right in that range, look, trump was 46 in 2018. Obama was 45 in 2010. You know, in 2018, republicans lost the house 40 seats in 2010, democrats lost the house 63 seats. You see the outlier, this is the kind of Approval Rating george w. Bush was in 2002, 63 , thats the kind of Approval Rating it typically takes for a White House Party to defy history and have a good midterm in this case, the republicans picked up a handful of seats in 2002. So just on the Approval Rating, which is historically driven midterm results in a lot of ways, biden is right and that danger zone, and democrats are right in that danger zone. You layer on top of that the feelings, the environment, the attitude, when it comes to the economy, our poll finding that more than eight in ten voters say they are dissatisfied with the current state of the economy. We havent seen a number that high on this question since 2009, 2010, around the time of the crash, the great recession. That period of time. And then, when you ask people straightup, with the most important issue, as you make up your mind, it is, economy and Cost Of Living, inflation. Those two combined for 37 here in terms of being the top issue. And the folks who cite that at their, as their top issue are breaking in our poll four republicans by a 43 point margin. Because the headwinds that democrats have against them here, sort of historically speaking, and in terms of the climate we are in right now, what are democrats counting on to try to counter all of that . Well, you could see this issue of threats to democracy, which comes in as the second most important issue on peoples minds. Democrats, on this issue, have an advantage of 68 points on the generic ballot. And then, theres also the issue of abortion, obviously brought to the four by Supreme Court decision, just under one in ten voters i think that is their most important issue. And again, its a tremendous democratic advantage there, 45 points. So, there are some issues besides the economy and inflation where democrats have pronounced advantages. And then, as you said in the beginning, there is simply that shift, there are poll findings, well see what tomorrow brings, but our poll says that our enthusiasm, theres been a change in the last several weeks where democrats have withdrawn. And even i think that the ultimate wild in this election tomorrow. We are looking at probable turnout when all is said and done of somewhere in the neighborhood of 120 230 Million voters, for a Midterm Election. Just eight years ago in the 2014 midterm, 85 Million People voted in it. Thats how much interest in politics has risen over the last decade, to be a level that high, it would have been unthinkable before. And, so it shows this is the ultimate variable. Are we at a point in this Midterm Elections where democrats may get voters motivated who in the past would not have been . Maybe theyre not wild about biden, maybe theyre not wild about the economy, but maybe, there is a idea there are voting against republicans, voting against donald trump, maybe that kind of thing, or environment now, where it can drive turnout in a way that it hasnt in the past midterms. Basically, if democrats walk away with a good night tomorrow and our poll does give them a couple of things to be hopeful about, if they walk away with a good night, i kind of see the rules of politics we reaching a little bit. Steve kornacki, thank you very much. I would say that last point that steve was making about quantitative analysis, versus qualitative analysis. I dont feel all that surprised. It seems that what people are saying they care about, and how those numbers breakdown. But thinking about 120 230 Million People turning out, already breaking midterm turnout records. I mean, thats to me, thats surprising, and that makes it feel unpredictable. I remember 2014 very well, because you know, i started the show in 2013. And it was the first election i covered at all in. And there was not a lot of interest. Believe me. Like, people did not tune in your way to reach out in the country to yeah, and you can feel it, right it was hard to get people motivated. It was the store the final act of the obama presidency. So i think people were sort of a little bit checked out. They kind of recovered from the great recession. Double trump did not come on the scene yet. So, just looking at that 14 million vote difference, right . Between 85 and 125. The only thing i will say is this. I do worry about expectations for tomorrow on the right, for this reason. Conservative media has told its base there is no question what is happening tomorrow, it is a red wave. It is going to be a landslide. And it may be. It may be one of those elections where you see some random democratic governor go down, where no one thought was gonna go down, right . Early in the night, some congress, member of congress, who no one thought had a contested race, loses to an unknown. It ends up being 60 states. Exactly, thats when you know you are in that kind of like a huge landslide. It may be that. I dont know. The polling data is not that clear. It could also be a pulling us in the other direction such as democrats have a fairly decent night. And i do worry the expectation has been so set in republican conservative spines, this is going to be an enormous red wave landslide, that should that not come, we know what the answer will be provided to them about why, not a pulling this, like democrats had to deal with 2016, or in 2020, where they lost a lot of seats they should have. Not all the polling was wrong, that measurement was wrong, turnout was different than we thought. Look, and the data, there was all these confounding signals that turned out democrats we know what the answer will be, and im very worried about that. And weve already got 40 plus percent of Republican Voters saying they dont trust this years Midterm Election results, even before weve got them. And i think we have to think about, as media in general, not just conservative media, you know, i think in general, the media has created an expectation where republicans, i think it would be bad if they can just say fox news set it. But i think in general, the general zeitgeist of the Media Coverage is that the red wave is coming, because a lot of the Polling Averages are saying that for a lot of the Polling Average is filled with a lot of junk peoples. And so, i think one of the issue and theres just uncertainty. And no one knows. And so, i think theres a risk. I think we, as the media, have to start to think about what are the incentives to presuppose anything . The only vote that really counts, the only poll that really counts is the vote, right . Thats the one that is real. And i think what you said earlier is really important. The way that campaigns are thinking about this tonight is that democrats campaigns, at large, theyre saying okay, you know we are racing about a 4 million vote lead in terms of what the electorate looks like that is voting early. The real data, not the polling, but the data. Democrats, the way the electorate looks, its about 53 women. That says to me that theres a huge amount of energy that is being driven by a thing that women care about, what is that thing . Its roe. I feel that weve been undercounting it, and under covering it since the summer. Women just dont get over the idea that they no longer on their bodies. Thats not something that they say, hey, you know, it was a little cheaper. Ill probably get over it. That isnt something that happens. So when i look at the electorate and the way that campaigns are looking at it, theyre saying, can republicans catch up to that 4 million vote lead on election day . Because thats when they are voting. And it used to be, back in the day, when i used to be on the other side of the campaign with that pretty lady over there, is that we would say, okay, weve got an early vote in, because young voters, black voters in particular, college students, people have to work hourly jobs, thats your democratic electorate. They vote early. Thats your early voter, so to the polls, right . And then on election day, it used to be awash. You know what the defense used to be . Absentee, because in 2004, we really thought, okay, democrats are gonna do okay. And then the absentee from republicans wiped out the democrats. And in 2014 thing, too. Now the trump has turned republicans against absentee, we know absentee is probably leaning d, and now, the only question is can they get it done that one day . Thats exactly right. I think, too, there was something that both dont pick up when women are deleting their ovulation trackers. Theyre gonna be like, delete, delete. This is when im voting. You know, youre gonna blow but its unknown unknown. So, just to be clear, you both think that the importance of abortion as a driver for democratic voters that abortion is being i dont know. Its not showing up in the polls, you think is stronger than it looks. I think its a noble. Because i think if you dont trust your apple watch to track your period, youre not responding how much you cant, whether you care a lot or not at all. It doesnt answer the question. I dont know if youre taking those calls anymore, if you are that kind of voter. I also think that this idea that the dogs vote early, its 50 years the president was overturned. You dont get over it, in like 12 weeks. I also think that the trap that the right set is that if you care about democracy, you are indifferent to economic angst. You are not. I have watched all these democratic candidates, they all understand, and i bet you they all know the price of milk, meat and bread, and all of their Grocery Stores in their districts or in their states. So, i think republicans said the strap, and i think thats another flaw on the media. The third thing is something change in the last seven days. I talk to candidates and pennsylvania, strategists in michigan, they all said that this weekend felt totally different than last weekend. Why . Im not sure. I mean, im not sure if its that last jobs number. I think because on the sort of a political magic that will get out there, and he was like, this is how you do it. He tried to cover democracy, and economy, and he was starting to sort of i mean, you look at the Josh Shapiro Speech from saturday night. And this tells you too much about my saturday night. [laughs] im like, oh my god, who is that . Shapiro is channeling obama, obama is channeling the majority of