on "countdown" more times than any of us can remember and i was keith's substitute host for over a year, before starting this program in the 10:00 hour. i am here, thanks entirely to keith. i'll have more to say about this tonight. but first, there is some news today that keith would want you to know about. >> it is go time for president obama. >> president obama is still working on his second state of the union address. >> the president is preparing for his second state of the union message. >> we're up to it. >> i think tomorrow night you'll see a very strong progressive case. >> but some republicans are already picking their candidates for 2012. >>. >> look at the rest of this list, ron paul, tim pawlenty and sarah palin, who got just 7%. >> new hampshire, new hampshire. >> plurality did not think sarah palin is -- has the qualifications to be president. >> new hampshire. >> none of those people would have been in the top 30 of the republican party 20, 25 years ago. >> sarah palin knows fewer words than coco the gorilla. >> former half-term governor alaska saved from last place by the tea party congresswoman, who will give the tea party response to the state of the union. >> second rebuttal, this one from congresswoman michele bachmann representing tea party. >> michele bachmann spent her weekend in iowa and then on monday -- >> justice scalia is participate on a seminar on the constitution hosted by freshman congresswoman michele bachmann. >> and what was the rest of congress doing? >> the pressure's on for lawmakers to find a date for tomorrow night. >> cross over the aisle and sit with colleagues. >> this started with the idea from representative mark udall. >> are you going to sit with a democrat at the state of the union? >> i'm going to sit where i usually sit. >> maybe cut back a little bit on all the jumping up and down. >> reminds me of high school or kindergarten. >> every president, regardless of party, tries to stroke every erogenous zone in the electorate. >> striking couple there. >> oh, my goodness. >> conservative next to liberal, gay next to straight, nerd next to jock. oh, wait, that was an episode of "glee." >> new hampshire republicans will cast their first votes in the presidential primary a year from now. but early signs point to a wild ride to the finish line for all of the leading candidates. a recent straw poll of new hampshire republican party committee members put ex-ma' ex-massachusetts governor mitt romney in the lead with 35%. the unelectable texas representative ron paul was in second place with 11%. third place went to the candidate who i would pick to win the nomination, if i had to pick today, which i don't, but i think i just did, minnesota governor tim pawlenty with 8%. the worst performer in the poll, given the expectation level attached to the fact that most of the media continues to pretend she is popular, sarah palin, finishing behind tim pawlenty, who the media largely ignores. in another election for new hampshire republican party chair, tea party candidate jack kim ball narrowly beat burgeor. >> we are in a war and we are going to win it. we are going to pull ourselves back from the brink. we're going to go after the democrats the entire time. >> and speaking of tough talking politicians making news in local races, after bill clinton campaigned from last week, rahm ee m ee manual's end could have hit a dead end. they're sending ballots to the printer without emanuel's name on them. he's not eligible to run because he moved to washington, d.c. two years ago. emanuel's lawyer says he plans to immediately appeal the decision to the imi will supreme court. if rahm emanuel can't run for mayor of chicago, might he run the obama/biden re-election campaign? >> joining now are howard feinman, senior political editor of huffington post and mark mckennan co-founder of the centrist report no labels. out of chicago, first of all, rahm emanuel knocked off the ballot. is this, can he get back on the ballot? if he can't, what does it mean to the obama/biden re-election campaign? >> it's almost it. he doesn't have much time. if he can't get on the ballot, has to attempt to run as a write-in candidate, according to history, nobody's done that in chicago. chicago is not a write-in kind of place, as you know, lawrence. everything is supposed to go according to plan in chicago. certainly for somebody close to the daleys, the way rahm is, close to obama, who knows the machine, et cetera, but it's not going according to plan. as you said, ballots are being printeded. it's very, very difficult here. now he's forced to argue after this very strong, although 2-1, but strong finding by the appellate court that he wasn't a resident. he's now emphasizing the argument he was called to washington to serve his president almost as a military person would. that's a total contrast to what he was saying before. while it might work legally, it's a longshot and confuses the voters of chicago. >> mark, aa former presidential -- republican presidential strategist and now with the centrist group no labels looking at these results in the new hampshire popularity poll, basically, with those committee members, what does it tell us? romney comes out with a big number but we always tend to discount that when you come from a neighboring state. what do you make of the rest of the lineup? >> first of all, lawrence, congratulations on your evolution. well deserved. the last place you want to be in new hampshire is in first place right now because new hampshire has a great history of, first of all, knocking off the front-runner. they hate the establishment. and so, romney's got nowhere to go but down. this is almost where he was in 2008. he was in a strong position, being in a neighboring state. as john mccain sunk his anchor in there and worked the turf and knocked him out. so, i think it's precarious place, actually, for romney to be in. what it really means is new hampshire's wide open. >> howard, i've been making the case that every one of these candidates has a serious flawed defect. i've had republicans come on here and make the case also there's a defect in the candidacy to prevent them from going all the way. the only what i don't see that on is tim pawlenty. on the leader in that poll, just when i thought i knew everything that was wrong with romney's candidacy, we discover the marriott hotel chain have decided they will no longer be a major porn provider through their pay-per-view porn systems in the hotels. and that mitt romney, who's been on that board, has been referred to within republican circles, by social conservatives as, quote, a major porngrapher. does marriott saying we won't sell that in our new hotels help romney or come up to show all the strange ways in which romney has problems? >> that is a strange one. just the fact we're discussing mitt romney, you know, and the new hampshire straw poll there and the porn industry, i don't care how you're going to play that, is not something that goes to his advantage. i agree with mark. this showing up there is not particularly overwhelming by any means. and i agree with mark, it means that new hampshire's wide open. mitt romney, don't forget, is from next door. people from massachusetts can, if they play it right, do well there. people -- i think other candidates might have at one point thought of playing down new hampshire. now they're all going to play there and they're going to be looking to bury mitt romney's candidacy right there in new hampshire, especially with that new tea party oriented chairman of the republican party there. >> translate thatted onty in this outcome. have you romney, historically one of the most liberal of these candidates. he's the one that brought what is considered obamacare to massachusetts before obama thought about it. and here he is coming out on top of that poll, while at the same time, a tea partier comes out on top of the establishment candidate for a party position up there. those two things don't seem to go together. >> well, they don't. let me mention the marriott decision. one thing it means is i won't be going to the marriott. >> there's always the internet, mark. you might check it out some time. >> it's a reflection of what we're seeing happening in republican politics. romney, the establishment, getting the top vote there but tea party getting sponsorship. we're beginning to see the real fractures of what's happening with the tea party, the real impact we'll have in electoral politics both in congress, at the state of the union and now new hampshire to see the electoral politics coming up in 2012. >> mark, you wrote in "the daily beast" president obama now has a better than 67% chance of winning re-election. what data did you put into the computer to come out at 67%? >> well, that's -- that's just historical data. as you look back at incumbent presidents over history and what the percentage of incumbents that were re-elected. first of all, incumbents have a decided advantage any way you look at, it fund-raising, infrastructure, having been through the drill before. i noted 12 reasons that seemed to me that president obama has an advantage. i look at president bush's campaign in 2004. he was not particularly popular at the time. he was in a difficult foreign conflict. the economy wasn't great. and yet he was still re-elected. i would like to say that was due to a brilliant campaign but a lot had to do with incumbency. >> big speech for the president, what some consider the kickoff of his re-ee lebz campaign. we heard george will talking every president, regardless of party, tries to stroke every erogenous zone in the electorate. what zones does president obama have to, i guess, stroke tomorrow night? >> of course, george will was discussing the marriott hotel decision. >> no, he wasn't. he was talking about state of the union. cut that out. we're done with the marriott thing, guys. >> okay, the biggest erogenous zone in the american psyche. it's what's president obama is going to focus on in terms of economics because the current situation in terms of joblessness and home foreclosures and so forth is still pretty grim. and the president is going to have to reframe the discussion about who can see to our long-term economic future. aides at the white house point me the other day to a speech the president gave in north carolina in december as kind of the template in which he talked about, in essence, another split moment. in other words, we face down the competition of the soviet union, now we're facing competition from all around the world, asia in particular. if we don't get our act together in terms of invasion, education, innovation, infrastructure and so on, we'll miss that long-range future for our children and grandchildren. that's going to be nice and uplifting and so forth but it's a way that he'll have to counterbalance that with the tough news about what they're going to have to do on the deficit and the debt. interestingly, i think the president, while he may allude to social security, he's made it clear he won't put in in cuts, much to the relief of progressives. >> thank you both for joining me tonight. >> thank you. center bernie sanders is worried about what president obama will say tomorrow about social security. senator sanders joins me next. later, i'll talk about what eight years of "countdown" did for this network and what keith olbermann did for me. jooishg-r ) >> ( speaking chinese ) >> ( laughing ) >> introducing cisco umi. be together in high def on your tv. exclusively at best buy's magnolia stores. cisco. wow.really coming together. yep. among mystery's still surrounding tomorrow's state of the union is what the president will say about social security and what he will say about gun and ammunition control. independent senator bernie sanders has put both the white house and republican party on notice. he joins me next. supreme court justice scalia cozies up to michele you bachmann and the tea party this evening. so much for supreme court justices being above politics. my reaction to the changes you're seeing tonight on msnbc. one four-star hotel. two identical rooms. so why does this one cost so much less on hotwire.com? 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[ rattling ] [ male announcer ] this week, go to staples.com/weeklyad for your coupon and save 15% off your entire in-store purchase, excluding all computers. that was easy. [ slap! slap! slap! slap! slap! ] [ male announcer ] your favorite foods fighting you? fight back fast with tums. calcium rich tums goes to work in seconds. nothing works faster. ♪ tum ta tum tum tums we could hear about in tomorrow's state of the union address, the future of social security. "the washington post" is reporting president obama will not endorse his budget deficit commission's call to raise the retirement age nor will he try to reduce spending on social security. but as of this afternoon, the white house was continuing to stay mum. >> i was going to print up a slide that said, the president's state of the union is at 9 p.m. on tuesday. i likely should have done that. i know there's a lot of con veb tour back and forth. i'm going to wait until -- wait until the speech. >> the man chosen to speak for republicans in their response tomorrow night, wisconsin representative paul ryan, who advocates increasing the social security retirement age, cutting the rate of increase of social security benefits for people over 55, and virtually dismantling the program for people under 55. joining me now from capitol hill, vermont independent senator bernie sanders. senator, thank you very much for joining me tonight. >> good to be with you, larry. >> senator, whose ideas do you really hope get more attention tomorrow night, the president's or congressman ryan's plan to cut social security spending? >> well, that's an interesting question. and i hope both of the ideas get significant coverage. we need a real national debate on what congressman ryan has been saying. and i applaud him for being straight forward and forthcoming. essentially what he is talking about, what his blueprint for the future is, are massive tax cuts for the richest people in this country, privatization of social security, massive cutbacks in medicare and medicaid and other programs that the middle class and working families of this country desperately need. so, i think at a time when the middle class is collapsing, poverty is increasing and the richest people are doing phenomenally well, i think we should have a very clean and respectful debate about where congressman ryan would like to take this country. >> senator, do you think there's any chance the republicans will actually bring the ryan plan to a vote in the house of representatives? >> well, i'll tell you something, larry, if the republicans don't, you know what, i will. i will do my best to bring the ryan plan to the floor of the united states senate, to give my republican colleagues the opportunity to vote to privatize social security, medicaid and medicare and make massive cuts on programs needed by ordinary people at the same time they give tax breaks to the rich. 23 that's what they want to campaign on, let them vote on it that. if they don't bring that forward, i'll make it my best to see they have that vote. >> some people would -- there's a long tradition in the senate of exactly this kind of vote, where one party is proposing something that the other party, in this case you, know, you absolutely know they won't vote for. >> right. >> you and i would agree, if you can get that to a vote in the senate as an amendment on something, you're going to get over 90 votes against it. i mean maybe jim demint will vote for it but i think you'll get 98, 99 votes against it. boent you? >> i think you're right. that's why very have to end this nonsense. you can't talk about giving trillions in tax breaks to people who don't need it in move in any way toward a balanced budget by cutting programs millions of people depend on. larry, we have to put this in the context of what's going on in the united states today. and that is a collapse of the middle class and an increase in poverty. so, i think this type of debate between what congressman ryan is talking about, what he has outlined for the republican party, is a good debate to have. and i think at the end of the day, what will happen is the vast majority of the people will say, excuse me, it is insane to be giving huge tax breaks to people who don't need it and cutting back or privatizing social security and medicare. >> senator, do you have a date for the state of the union tomorrow night? it looks like it's prom night. and republicans are asking democrats and democrats are inviting republicans to go and sit beside each other at the state of the union address. you may just walk by yourself or is someone going with you? >> i'll tell you, larry, as an independent, it's not hard for me to find people who disagree with me. i don't think i'll have any problem sitting next to somebody whose views are very different from mine. >> john mccain is going to sit next to senator udall. announced a lot of different couplings we've never seen before. i can tell you i once ended up sitting on the republican side of a state of the union address by accident. i was actually given bob dole's seat when he was minority leader. there i was in the front of the republicans. it was a very odd sensation. and i think a lot of people sitting in their new seats tomorrow night are going to have some very odd feelings about it. do you think there will be any good effect from it? >> i do. you know, i think the tragedy in arizona has sobered people up a little bit. and i think the vitriol will and should calm down a bit. but i think at the end of the day, while all of these things are positive, and you've got to be listening to people whose views are different than yours, at the end of the day, there are very huge philosophical divisions in the united states congress. i think they should be debated fully and forcefully, although respectfully without venom. but i think the american people and congress need to have a real conversation as to where the united states of america is today, where our middle class is and where we want to go. what i worry about, larry, deep in my heart, is that this country is moving in the direction of an alegarchy, relatively few people, wealthy people on top, have more money than they've ever had before. with that money they are exercising incredible power as a result of citizens united on our political system. they can make huge amounts of money in campaign contributions without disclosure. and they're also having, obviously, a great impact on our economy as a result of increased concentration of ownership. >> senator sanders, senator lautenberg in new jersey is going to introduce congresswoman carolyn mccarthy's bill to ban the sale -- to go back to what we had for ten years and ban the sale of those ammunition clips of the kind used in tucson that can fire 31 bullets instead of that limit of 10 that used to be there. there's a lot of professional talk about, oh, it's hopeless. you can't get anything like that through congress. is this a moment in the aftermath of tucson to drop the political calculation and just try to fight for something that should be done like this without regard to whether it's an easy one or a difficult one to win? >> well, i think guns are an issue that need a lot of discus