Is that this vote will be very tight and very tense. So our question today on quadriga, should the u. K. Stay or go . I am joined by three seasoned observers and analysts, beginning with derek scally, who is from the irish times, and says brexit is merely a symptom for a long deepseated eu illness. Also with us is alan posener, a regular commentator for berlin who believes that brexit would be a catastrophe that would lead to the dissolution of the European Union. And welcome to ulrike herrmann, a Business Editor and writer at the tageszeitung, who says a brexit would not be as bad as it seems for the eu because the british would be forced to adopt all the key eu loss. Say a disaster might be just days away. Tell us about the disaster. Alan the disaster goes like this. Britain leaves. Aere is a disaster, in that man like Boris Johnson might become Prime Minister, which is disastrous for britain. Talk about europe. Camp in places like france, 61 of the population unfavorable of the eu, they demand a referendum. In denmark, they demand a referendum, where there is an antieuropean party with more votes than any other party. In poland, people demand a referendum, and the whole thing starts to fall apart, the whole project starts to fall apart. Permany is left with a few rum states hoping for handoffs from the german table, and that is cast as the European Union, which is really just a neocolonial project. This, i admit, is the worst possible outcome, but it is not totally unrealistic. Thats the terrible thing. Peter ulrike, do you buy into this . Ulrike i dont. Politically, europe might be divided, but economically we are bound together. It is a very small continent, with very tight economic affairs. It is impossible to somehow get independent economically, and that is something the british are going to realize. Look at countries like norway, or switzerland, or iceland. They do not belong to the eu, but nonetheless they are forced so implement european losaw to be able to trade with the European Union. The same would happen with britain. We would be no longer part of the eu, but to trade with the eu, to have economic contact with the eu, they would be forced to implement european laws, and the only difference is they would not be able to take Political Part in deciding on these laws. Alan it is a german fallacy, that since the days of karl marx, who was a very german person, that economics determines everything. Ulrike it does. Alan europe was a tightly knit economic unit before the first world war, and they threw it all away, they destroyed this, and we have not recovered since. Europe, europe is totally capable of selfdestructing once the demons of european nationalism are unleashed, and this is what is going to happen if the, if the brexit people win. Thats what im worried about. If germans sit back completely and say, they will have to take their method in, like the german medicine, likedrig their the german finance minister said, you dont understand how everywhere in europe except for germany itself, peoples blood begins to boil at that. This is what is destroying europe. Derek i would be with ulrike at this point if we did not have what alan described, this populism and nationalism, this talk sing mix across toxic mix across europe. The notion that the rules will continue to work, and it is a clockwork that will keep taking and britain will be a smaller wheel in the clockwork mechanism, on paper that is how it should be, but we have marine le pen, populism in austria, sweden, finland, denmark, right here in germany, and we are kind of in a postrealitybased part of europe, and it is emotions driving things. Almost like the donald trump feeling. If you start tinkering with the clockwork at a time like this, thats where you will never get this clock working again after the brexit vote. Ulrike where i agree is that, of course, therelots of nationalism and emotion thats now deciding the fate of britain. Agree the ukip guys are not pursuing a rational policy. How is europe supposed to be reacting to irrationality . Germans, you as always address me as a german, so what of the german supposed to do . Five years ago, you could differentiate between insane euroskeptics and rational eurocritics. This firm me has been a very frustrating part of the European Union in the last 10 years, that criticism was like a teflon coating in brussels, it just dripped off. There are european critics in britain who are very rational, intelligent people, and they have never been listened to. And suddenly in the last reel we have britain being listened to, this and this is a good idea. Ulrike tell me. What exactly would have had to change in europe in order to somehow improve the situation in britain . My perspective is completely different. Everything that britain wanted has been done by the eu. Thats the problem. There is not one single proposal, not even from cameron, eu should do to keep britain in the eu. My impression is, the whole debate in britain doesnt have anything to do with the reality of the eu. Its about britain, and the situation there. Peter before we continue about the british perception of the eu and the gripes the british have about the eu and brussels, lets hear a little from the brexit campaign, starting with Boris Johnson. Boris johnson why are we sending 10 billion pounds a year to brussels, some of which is spent on spanish bullfighting . Do you think the british taxpayers should be supporting spanish bullfighting . Absolutely not. The eu is certainly not a democracy. Laws are instigated by the European Commission. It is very frustrating, having to constantly deal with the barrage of mindless, petty rules, completely mad. Should have a huge warning sign on top of it that says contains nuts. Our message will be loud and clear. We do not want a European Union passport. We want a british passport. We want our passports back. We want our soldiers back. We want our country back. We want to make june 23rd independence day. Faragederek, nigel talking about independence day, saying we want our country back. Is that just rightwing populism, the kind of thing one could dismiss, or should we take it seriously . Have the british really lost their sovereignty and seated at ceded it to brussels . Derek they believe they have, but that is perception. What they are really saying is, we want our empire back, we want to feel like somebody again. Britain lost it long before joining the eu, and now we have even less importance in the world, having been in the eu. Alan the british believe quite sincerely, i was speaking to a lot of people, and they believe that their democracy is much more open and accessible and transparent and lively and authentic than brussels. They have a case, havent they . Derek what is brussels . British politicians are going to brussels to make decisions, or telling the European Commission we would like you to come up with a rule on vegetables, which they then mock in london, saying there are these crazy rules about vegetables, which london and other capitals demanded. So britain is projecting there is selfloathing at play here, and such irrationality that somehow we will be somebody again, that we can make britain great again, like donald trump says, make America Great again, by cutting off the nose to spite the face. And then they will listen to us, when we have no nose left. Press years, the murdoch has been attacking the bbc and attacking europe, and if you have been raised in this environment, everybody who is proeurope or proeu is on the back foot, and they have been for the last 30 years. You are constantly defending why this is a good thing, as opposed to in germany, where it is the other way around, and Rupert Murdoch is now going to have his day. This is what he has been investing in all these years, to try and get britain where he wants it, out of the European Union. If you are bombarded w with thee messages for 30 years, it seems completely normal, and that is the bubble in which britain is living. The environment in which they are deciding could not be less conducive. What will happen then across europe . Thats really the spark in the gasfilled room. Peter point taken. Lets shift focus just a little bit. Becausele sovereignty, too much has been given away, say the brexit camp. And too much immigration. Is there too much immigration . Derek no. Britain has profited immensely from immigration to europe. Take the poles, people from ireland, bankers from france, businessmen from germany, and so on. In fact, many people in britain would rather have more immigration, from other countries, china, russia, the caribbean, pakistan, so on. Nos is, this is, there is rational argument, i agree, for britain leaving the European Union. The point is, we are beyond the point of russian argument, and when british people look to europe, they see, for instance, knees, brought to its by the german finance minister. They see spain brought to its knees with austerity at the behest of berlin, with 40 on employment. They see a eurozone with zero growth when their own country has 2 growth. They are worried. Its not just nostalgia. Peter also positives. If 50 of the people vote for the brexit, they believe they can go it alone. Do you believe, understand what makes them so confident . Alan it is in part a feeling that, the transatlantic feeling, the anglosphere, encompassing australia, new zealand, united states, and so on, obviously this is more a dream than a reality, but i understand where they come from, because if you are a british position or actor or businessperson, like sir branson, who did virgin airlines, you do automatically find your way, or if you are a journalist like tina brown, you find your way to the united states, whereas germans find it difficult to do so. , he went tot britain and said, you will not have more influence if you leave europe. You will have less. Peter going to the back of the queue with negotiation privileges. Alan it is not just old empire. It is the old feeling of the English Speaking people, since churchill spoke about defending democracy together. Butink it is an illusion, it is no coincidence Boris Johnson is a biographer of winston churchill. Hes a character of the great man, but thats what he gets his ideas from. Peter you talked pragmatically about the british after they voted themselves out of the eu, turning back to the eu and reinventing themselves into the club, according to the norwegian or the swiss model. Do you think that really will work . A lot of people say, the eu city will not go with that anymore. Ulrike i dont think so, because once there is this brexit, of course the eu will try to keep written as close to the britain as close to the eu as possible, but the real problem will be that the brexit will not be a clearcut decision. Because even if there is a decision for brexit, it will be by a margin of, say, 2 . 2 is nothing, in political terms. After the vote for the brexit, you have two years of negotiations with the eu. During this time, there will be a lot of uncertainty, which i think will be causing economic trouble in britain. So probably during those two years of negotiation, a lot of brits will think, it might not have been such a good idea to vote for the brexit. So then when it finally comes time to leave, polls will show most brits would rather stay. Peter this is a very messy situation. [laughter] ulrike in the end, it might be that britain will stay, and the only victim will be David Cameron, who of course will be forced to resign if there was a majority for a brexit, however small. Letting the genie out of the bottle by causing the referendum. Ulrike Boris Johnson will be a problem. Eu,britain will be in the but it is a possibility. I think its very it would be crazy to think that a very small margin in favor of a brexit would automatically lead to britain leaving. That, i think, is not how politics work. Peter ulrike is talking about, if there is a brexit vote, what happens next . Nothing we could not deal with is what the brexiteers appear to be saying. The remain camp says they will be major worries, perhaps a disaster for europe, and the u. K. A storm is brewing over the isles. The brexit is now a fact. Britain is getting out. The European Union faces the biggest crisis in its history. The bloc has lost a Major Military power, and its thirdlargest net income contributor. But after the party, it is time to pay the piper. The economy in britain shrinks an estimated 6 . Experts say around 800,000 jobs are in jeopardy. It is ground zero for a political explosion. All over the continent, the hour has struck for euroskeptics, and they start to push for exits, too. Prime minister David Cameron falls on his sword and resigns, succeeded by leave front man Boris Johnson, the former mayor of london. And what does the rest of the union do . Draw together, or fall to pieces . Alan, you were shaking her head listening to the report. Tell me why. Agree that thei scenario seems to be very realistic, especially the part about what happens to europe. It falls apart. It does not draw together. This is what mr. Schaeuble is hoping, what the social democrats, what the lefties in germany are hoping, finally without these pesky brits we become the closer union we always wanted to have. But nobody in europe, and those people in germany, dont want that. This is not going to happen. Europe is going to fall apart politically, and the idea that, oh, with this Economic Union we cannot do that europe has destroyed itself time and again, and by the way, had to be rescued by Great Britain twice. Thats true. So you can do it again, without the brits. Peter donald tusk, president of the european council, said this week that our enemies will open the champagne if britain leaves. Which enemies was he referring to . Derek people who are in very good position to win elections in the next two years in europe. Brexit is only the first. You have the president ial election in france. We have got, we just had a president ial election in austria, and there will be parliamentary elections there. In germany, we have federal elections next year, with an unheard of doubledigit growth for a populist Rightwing Party playing a lot of this antieuropean rhetoric. Ay fors going to be paydf this antielitist, antieuropean movement around europe. Damp of nationalism coming up through the walls. Ulrike i think thats true. There is an antielite sentiment in all of europe, but thats not because it is the eu. Problem is, in most of these countries there has been a long period of neoliberal policies, which meant the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, and thats what people are revolting against, but it doesnt have anything to do with the eu. Britain has a very neoliberal policy when it comes to enriching the rich and making if your more poor, so wanted to somehow defeat the populist parties, to have to let rycial democratic policy tt to make people feel more secure economically. But thats not going to happen. Liberal we have a new government in these countries peter which the movements are taking advantage of. Ulrike so i feel your fears, but i dont think it has anything to do with europe. And thats the problem. Ofn first, the question who donald tusk is referring to, he is referring to russia. I have just been on a trip to the three baltic republics. Lithuania, and, these people are shaking in their boots for what fear of what russia will do with their own russian minorities, and what russia is doing. Mr. Putin has artie declared himself the already declared himself the protector of these russian minorities. This is what europe is facing. This is why the eu needs to keep together, and this is why we must combat these, this idea of nationalism. I will say one thing. It is not neoliberal policies, as proposed by Great Britain, that is driving european apart. It is the attempt to hold the euro together at the cost of the poor nations of europe, driven by a grand coalition in germany. Ulrike i agree that german euro isealing with the completely mental, but you cannot tell me that the brits, were not part of the euro, want to leave the eu because of german policy about the euro. I same nonsense. It is rather the people in britain, think that somehow their situation is due to those immigrants from east europe. Peter let me go to derek. We are running out of time, so i want to tell you give you a minute and i have to say, how much dismay will there be in ireland if there is a brexit vote . Derek we have a border with Ireland Northern ireland that is a completely open border, with open trade back and forth. If britain leaves it is now an outer eu border, so do we put up our wire again . Do we put up soldiers . . There will be a Customs Border again, which means costs and queues, and the prosperity that oiled the Peace Process will be called into question, so ireland could be one of the first casualties of this debate and vote, and it is not really being debated in britain at all. We will see how that goes. Alan absolutely. It is a disaster for ireland, a disaster for the Peace Process, a disaster for the baltic states, for poland. You name it, is terrible. [laughter] peter the question i asked at the top of the show, should be u. K. Stay or go. Give me your summarizing comments . Ulrike of course they should stay, and i think they will vote for not leaving. Derek i also believe selfinterest will prevail at the will remainu they will remain with the wounded pride that brussels is dictating their lives. Alan i hope they are afraid enough of Boris Johnson as a Prime Minister. He is a mediocre but ok novelist, but as a Prime Minister he would be a disaster. He is an actor, not a politician. I hope that the fear of Boris Johnson peter is it interesting that the name