The Election Campaign focused on one issue fierce opposition to merkels refugee policy. And the chancellors conservatives took a major drubbing. After the election earthquake, what is next for germany and chancellor merkel . Coming to you live, quadriga, the international talkshow. Your host, peter craven. Peter welcome to this latest edition of quadriga from the german capital. We are looking at the victory for the antiimmigration alternative for germany party. We are asking, what impact will that have on german politics, and is Angela Merkel to blame for this surge on the right . To tackle this topic, im joined in the studio by three excellent guests. Let me introduce them to you without further ado. Derek scally writes for the irish times newspaper. He says the afd is only as strong as the mainstream parties are weak and not a danger for now. Also with us is malte lehming. This election outcome is a major blow for Angela Merkel, he says. Judy dempsey from carnegie europe. Accoing to judy, afd is challenging merkels refugee policies, but the majority of germans still support her. I would like to begin with this. Most people outside germany, when they look at germany, they think of a country with a troubled past. A dark history. Lets begin by asking you how troubled you are about this outcome of the recent elections that gave the afd, a right of center party, a quarter of the vote in one state. Put them well into double figures in two others. Judy it was inevitable. There is a section of the country opposed to the refugee policies. The afd came to power through democratic channels, not the streets. It was through democracy. This is the good thing. The bad thing is that chancellor merkel and her party have to decide which direction they are going to go. Will they pursue the same direction with the risk of giving them more support . Or will she just continue busine as usua it will not be easy for her. Peter i am troubled already by you saying business as usual. Is the afd a far right party . Judy the afd has become the home for disgruntled leftwingers and rightwingers. From the christian docrats and the social democrats. This is the first thing. Before t electn, the a was a bourges party. Nto anutated antifeign rigwing pay. Is is thworry. Peter is this business as usual, a party that had bourgeois roots . One of germanys leading publications, tagespiegel described them as hate preachers, a populist party. Malte it is a populist party, and i would say it is not business as usual. Most parties do not want to govern with the afd. They will be excluded from government. Half the country is saying, i am skeptical or against refugee policy, which is not represented in parliament. There is no party in parliament representing where half the country stands on the refugee problem. It is 24 , quite a lot. That is the ground problem, that so many people do not feel represented. It started with the antieuropean approach, which is something all is established parties are supporting. We have a lot of antieuropean sentiment as well. Policies are not represented right now. That is the basic foundation for the success of the afd. Judy it is interesting, this phenomenon. Afd tis a strand of the hat is actually saying merkels policies have left us behind. Merkel is a modernizer. She has moved the party to the center and the left, in some ways, leaving behind churches and traditional organizations that grew up after the second world war. They are saying, what happened to our christian democrats . Peter i still want to talk about the afd. I was quoting tagespiegel as saying they are a dangerous populist party. Lets look at the spectrum of opinion on the right. We had a terror cell that went on a killing spree for a number of years in germany, killing migrants in germany. We have the npd being looked at as a possible party that should be banned from politics. We have pegida, a streetlevel rightwing movement, and the afd making its mark. That is a broad array of rightwing opinion in germany, and troubling for me. Derek most of them are dying, and the afd is growing. We have seen pares like this come from nowhere before, the pirate party. The key in germany is not to get elected. It is to get reelected. None of them got reelected. The afd does not know what it is. Is it a Rightwing Party . They do not know if it is a Rightwing Party. You have conservative christians, economic liberals, professional contrarians fighting each other. They are trying to come together with a party program. , we dohey decide that not know what it is. Malte we have two different experiences in europe. We have the experience that the rightwing parties do not exist so long. That is the german experience. They all die down. Then we have the European Experience, scandinavia, hungary. Austria and so on. That tells a different story. As soon as you have the combination of european and antiforeigners sentiments combined, that could be a strong force. The afd could take the german or european way. Derek at this stage, the common European Experience is that these parties are only as strong as the political mainstream is weak, and they have been complacent. Nhey have said, we have taken a antibiotic and it cannot happen to us. The question is, what will the political mainstream due to react against that . Peter lets listen to what one member of the afd, who was elected into this local parliament, lets hear what he has to say about the european angle. Every european country has a party that takes a critical approach to the political establishment. In france, it is the front national, fpu, ukip, afd in germany. Peter what do you say about that . Judy it is very complex. We do not really know. I ponder about this. This refugee crisis is very different from the euro crisis and other crises that have come to the eu. It is different because it is not about a process. It cannot be solved by brussels. It is about people. It is about foreign people coming to europe. It touches every person, particularly in germany. There is a feeling of other, fear, insecurity. There is a feeling of Civil Society on, yes, we can do it, on the other. They conflict with each other. But this is why i think this crisis is going to be so difficult for merkel to handle if she does not get a consensus among the other eu countries. The problem is here to stay. Even if this particular crisis is dealt with, there will be more a people crisis. Derek i agree. Merkel created this problem herself. She got rid of everyone who could have been a competitor to the afd. They were all rivals to her. She dumped them overboard. We supposedly have a christian democratic party, but it is a merkel democratic union. The rest of the party are her hostages. They realize they cannot do anything about this. She has gotten rid of her competitors. They were quite happy to let her win elections for them. They created this. The afd saw a gap in the market. That is what Political Parties do. Malte the power of angela ofkel was based on the power her party and her power in europe. Her party is holding an open rebellion against her on the refugee crisis. Look at the bavarian part of the cdu. Some of the candidates openly said, i am against her refugee policies. Her power base in her party and europe is eroding. We just had 12 eu refugee summits. Her power to influence things in europe diminished. I think her power is diminished. Judy one aspect of this is that, even if you do not support the afd, there is growing disappointment among the german public. They do not feel they are getting solidarity after germany extended solidarity to other eu members, and there is lingering bureau euro skepticism not coming to the fore. Merkel is very aware of this. As iaid, there is a sense that, if the others do not help us, who will help us . Maybe we should go our way. It is worrying, that aspect. Peter i want to come back to the afd. There are many schools of thought when it comes to this to theirn it comes international standing. There are those arguing it could be a positive shakeup in germanys Political Landscape and the way politics are acted out. Lets explore that point of view. Some say the rise of a Rightwing Party will not shake germany to its political foundations. In fact, the traditional parties will be able to sharpen their own profile by dealing with the afd in parliament. Finally, we could see some real political debate in germany instead of boring speeches. Addition, the rough and tule of paiamentary sessions will likely expose the afds policies as shallow. That has happened before to other rightwing parties in germany. What is more, three quarters of the german electorate voted against the afd. After the afds success in those state elections, more will be inclined to vote against them. People will discover that every vote does count, and that is good for democracy in germany. Peter a positive shakeup for german politics . Malte that is a positive way to express it. It will be very tough to deal with the afd, considering their strength. If the media or established parties will reflect them as nationalist and racist, they will gain strength. It depends on how you deal with them. I think merkel made a big mistake. You have the merkel refugee policy from autumn 2015, open borders saying, we can do this and so on, and the recent bykel changed policy strengthening asylum laws. As soon as the war is over, you have to go home. She never explained why she switched from one side to the other side. People got confused by this policy. It is not just against or for. They just got confused. Judy merkels real weakness is her lack of communicating, actually. She communicated before she became chancellor 2005. Then there were mistakes with socalled tax policy. Leaving that aside, she has rarely communicated how she sees europe, germanys place. It is a handson thing. If you look at chancellor merkels record, i cannot remember a speech she gave on europe, let alone germany. That is when the refugees were a unilateral decision. She never told the prime minister, the commissioner, Member States. It is as if she learned nothing from 2011, her decision to get rid of nuclear energy. Malte the impression of the policy was she is giving in to the demands of the afd, saying we have to control the borders and declare more states a safe haven and so on. That is what the afd said from the beginning. The impression is, if you are not voting for the afd you can , force them to change policy. Peter we have been focusing on the afd, but they were not the only winners of the votes last week. Lets have a look at them and see what theyre getting right. He is authentic, down to earth, and trustworthy. State premier wilfried kretschmann, a member of the green party. The greens support chancellor merkels policy on refugees. Kretschmann seems to have struck a chord with the electorate. The First Priority is the country and its people. Everything else is secondary. Kretschmann won his election. And she is authentic, down to earth, and trustworthy. Malu dreyer, state premier of the rhineland. She also supports the chancellors policy on refugees. She refuses to take part in tv talk shows if the afd is going to be there. I stand by my position. That is no one should give the afd a platform on tv. I will continue to stand by that position. She won the vote in her state too. Votersre elections, will focus more on politicians and less on Political Parties . Derek i think so. We are realizing this new branding of politics. It is not about the party program. Even journalists do not tend to read them. But i am not sure about this notion they supported merkels migration policy. Peter 80 of the voters are behind Angela Merkel . Derek they went to vote on this state election because they like the policies on schools and roads. Lets not forget there were other issues. In rhineland, there was a problem with the bypass. You were voting with the party that would change that. I see this rebranding like these talent shows where you do not see anything that goes behind, just the talent up front. I worry that the parties themselves are fading. The social democrats are a basket case and they have been for years. What is social democracy . One out of three winners does not make a successful election for me. Social democrats is plunging. Eventually, they will have to decide, do we still stand on our own or look to the left party . The greens have gone with merkels party, and that means she has options for 2017. Social democrats can act now and define themselves, or they will be left standing on the dance floor. This election has shaken up the cards. I see this personalization that has come along, and i worry about the state of the parties if it is all about smiles. Peter we heard malu dreyer saying she would not go on a Television Talk show with representatives of the alternative for germany. Is that the right approach . Judy i have always said there is no point on being on the outside on the inside and keeping the opposition on the outside. You have to engage. These are not demons. Whoe are decent people voted for the afd. It is a democratic right that we engage and find out what they think. Why do they think like this . What are their fears . Outside gives them more fodder, ammunition, to say that the established parties do not want to hear what we have to say. Derek merkel did not even mention their name for the first two years. Malte the name was a response to Angela Merkel. Peter they started off with 4. 7 of the vote in the federal election. That was in 2014. They are now 12 , 15 , and 24 . I am surprised. I do not understand why you are not more worried. Malte i would strongly dispute the notion that since 80 did not vote for the afd means they support the refugee policy. Preelectionon polls show most germans are skeptical towards the policy. It does not mean you support the implied ideology of the other partie the potential of the afd is higher than 15 or 20 . That even shows people who are skeptical or against the refugee policy did not vote for the afd is a good sign because they regard the party as extremist. Some parts are even racist. That is why i am not so much afraid about the democratic culture of the german electorate. Lets not foet this a rty thatas good ople in it. There arpeople tt voted r the cdand now ey are el. I saw it with the rise of pegida. Some political scientists have said there is a problem in germyhat everhing right of center in germany is considered the devils work. That is not the case. That creates momentum for a party like the afd. If they think i am a bad boy, i will show them how bad i am. Peter there was a taboo about voting for parties in this range of the political spectrum in germany. I sense that taboo no longer applies. 24 of thepply to public. Judy these fringe parties, as you say, it is the question of being reelected, but this crisis is something special. It is new. It touches everybody, and it will not go away. This is the fear that the afd can tap into. It is the fear that Angela Merkel and established parties have to recognize. How are we going to cope on a german and european level . Neither have the answers. Malte it depends on how you deal with the party and how openly you address the fears, the arguments, stuff like that. I think the first question was towards the german past and what role it has in the political discussion. That is a combination between european policy and refugee policy. That has a connection to the past. European policy was always overshadowed. We have to be proeuropean. The same with the refugee crisis. Because of our past, we have to open everything. Derek i know your concern, but fear has not been a policy. But but it has been the policy in germany for 50 years if anything happens you are not happy with, you just go nuts. The afd has turned that on its head. That is clever from a strategic perspective. Of course, there are people that go nuts about everything. Racists. Are but they have been using provocation to get our attention. They have our attention. Peter we are getting close to the end of the program. Is this an earthquake in german politics . Is this a blip . Derek it is an earthquake, and about bloody time. 10 years of merkel have been lethal for german party politics. It is about time people were shaken awake. Peter what do you say . Is Angela Merkel to blame for the fragmentation of german politics we are seeing, the major surge to the right . Judy only partly to blame. Other eu Member States are to blame as well. Europe comes out badly on this. Putting all the blame on her shoulders is passing the buck. Peter malte lehming, Angela Merkel is the great survivor, i think everyone would agree. Everyone is nodding. We have got the next federal election is coming up in 2017. Is Angela Merkel going to be chancellor after that election . Malte i think she will. I do not see any alternative in her own party or on the left forming a viable coalition. Peter after your outpouring, is she going to survive . Is she going to win the next election . Derek survival is what she does. But nothing lasts forever, as we all know. Peter we have heard a lot of predictions from all three of you. Im looking forward to see what comes from all of that. Come back next week. Byebye for now. Dbb anchor on global 3000 this week a visit to the u. S. , which had a tragic 2015. More Young African american men died from Police Brutality than ever before. We head to chicago to find out why. 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