Transcripts For KWWL Mad Money 20161201 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For KWWL Mad Money 20161201

And thats whats driving the stocks of so many Big Industrial Companies Higher even as others sell off in a bizarre confluence of good and bad news thats mirrored in todays action with the dow struggling to stay positive, up just two points. S p dipping 0. 26 and the nasdaq getting crushed, down 1. 05 . In the last 24 hours, president elect trump has announced a bunch of probusiness cabinet picks while to spare jobs that would otherwise be lost to mexico. The result is that the markets anointing a whole new group of stocks, rotating into them while slaughtering others. So i want to explain why thats happening and how you can profit from it. So lets trace the narrative. First the picks trump announced today, Steve Mnuchin as treasury secretary, wilbur ross as commerce secretary, sent a huge message. People who are probusiness and thats who this administration is going to be listening to. Progrowth, projobs. Now, close viewers of this network know that wilbur ross is a pragmatic, crafty business person who knows how to invest well and place bets most importantly on industries that could thrive even as others have given up on them. Im thinking about things like steel, like coal, like textiles. Trump wants to revive those kinds of industries and bring back and create jobs in them. Now, maybe he can. Maybe he cant. But if theres even a possibility, then ross will figure it out. I know ross. Hes smart. Hes clever. Hes pragmatic to a fault. I love that in business people. Im not saying that wilbur ross is the reincarnation of engine charlie wilson, the head of general motors, who famously when he was nominated for secretary of defense by president eisenhower in 1953 said, what was good for the country was good for g. M. And vice versa. What we care about on the show. How about Steve Mnuchin for treasury . Ive met him in passing. Cant say i know him although i worked for his dad, bob mnuchin, whom we affectionately called coach when he ruled that trading desk at Goldman Sachs. Coach retired at the top of his game, did some great things in the art world. I learned a ton from him. I have to believe steve learned a heck of a lot more than any of us from coach, which would make him as savvy about the markets as they come. He spent almost two decades at goldman and then invested correctly in the savings and loan market at the absolute bottom. And a fantastic investor. Good for stocks. I stress these credentials because these are the kind of people whom president obama would never appoint to cabinet positions. To him, theyre probably wall street fat cats. He may not even know who they are. But to the stock market, theyre members of the traditional Business Establishment who want to make the economy grow and want to see profits grow. With these picks, trump is sending a huge signal. Faster, to take back jobs, including manufacturing jobs, and have the government promote business and the causes of business. Good for the stock market. Thats their mission. It was not president obamas mission. Its okay. Again, its not political commentary. Obviously whats good for business is not always good for the rest of america. But obama seems to believe business can fend for itself. Trump wants to embrace business. Good news for stocks. When mnuchin and ross came on air this morning, s over by what they had to say. They talked about cutting corporate taxes, creating jobs, giving the middle class tax breaks but not the rich. Thats going to spur growth. I cant emphasize enough these two picks are about growing the pie so everyone does better. You may think thats impossible. You think its too cynical. Listen, if you even for a moment believe that it could happen, then i need to know i think ross and mnuchin are savvy enough to get it done. Theyre getitdone guys. Theyre practical. And by the way, lets make it levelheaded, highroaders. Finally, theres trumps gambit to save 1,000 jobs from going to mexico by negotiating with the head of United Technologies, greg hayes, to keep carrier plants open in indiana that the company planned to close in order to save money. Trump called hayes, basically said it would be a real good idea for the company to keep those jobs in indiana, and if hayes complied, then he would do a lot to help United Technologies and all other businesses by repatriating overseas dollars, using lower ta that united tech has in other countries. Trump pretty much got what he wanted, and about half the jobs will stay here. There were small incentives for United Technologies, but the gist of it is that utx simply wont make as much money now. But its also less at risk of losing the 6 billion in federal contract business it has. Is this good for stocks . No. Will it be a warning to other businesses that they should think twice before they move their operations offshore . Yes. Workers, not shareholders. But trump figures hes given enough to shareholders that he can lean on business to save jobs. Look, he could have just slapped tariffs on stuff. Instead he negotiated with hayes, admittedly with the upper hand. Kind of the way trump does it. But he played the hand for workers, not shareholders. Expand the pie. Okay. If we have a progrowth president who is making progrowth cabinet picks, why didnt stock prices soar . A couple of reasons. First, opec made a deal that raised the price of oil dramatically. The stock market likes it when the increase in demand. They dont like it if its cuts in supply. So oil users lost even as the Oil Companies gained, especially in the domestic producers with holdings in the Permian Basin in texas, which is extremely profitable with crude right here at 49, up an astounding 10 in one day. In addition to short sellers buying back their oil shorts, investors clamored for anything oil and clearly had to make sales away from oil to raise all that money to buy those oils. Id wait for the oil stocks to cool off, people. Ive seen people chase them like they did when iraq invaded kuwait. Ends in three days. Youll get hurt. Second, a progrowth agenda is great for the stocks of companies that need a Strong Economy to do well. Thats the basic industrials. Thats the transports. Thats the banks, which will continue to rally if mnuchin gets his way. I continue to like the bank stocks. I think they have more upside. However, a progrowth agenda doesnt mean much at all for companies that already have a lot of growth, namely the tech stocor their growth accelerate despite what mnuchin or ross or trump will do, the stocks known as the defensives, which you buy when growth is slowing. So what doesnt do well . Health care, drugs, foods, you name it. Their stocks arent going to rally on statements about revitalizing american manufacturing. I think there will be bargains in the group, in all these groups, because theyre getting crushed too hard. As is almost always the case in this market, which exaggerates every single move, and thats where you get to make some money. All right. Lets put in language today that youll really understand. Today the oil fang is biting the heck out of the tech fang. Thats right. Remember, i told you about diamondback energy, one of the Fastest Growing Oil Companies because its got big permian exposure . That stock jumped more than 12 or 13 while facebook, amazon, netflix, and google, fang, now alphabet, were laid to was dichotomy. Again, these moves are way over the top. Energy is too strong although the direction is right. Tech is too weak although i can see why it would sell off. The soft goods, case by case. And the banks . With mnuchin and ross in there, i think the windfall for the banks continues. More on that later in the show. Put it all together, and we could have a down day because the industries that directly benefit from the trump growth agenda really dont make up as much as they used to of the s p 500 or the nasdaq or even dont need a Strong Economy to thrive kind of really well, theres just a lot more of them than we thought. But give it a couple of days to sort out, and i think youll find that the news is better for all companies. There just isnt enough money coming in on a given day to make everything rally at once. The bottom line . This is another rotation in a long line of rotations that will run its course before another one begins anew. Not business as usual, though. But probusiness for certain. Hayes. Caller jim, how are you . Im doing good. How about you . Caller good. Jesse livermore booyahs from dallas, texas. The great plunger. What are you thinking . Caller i am thinking on this dustup we saw in the media yesterday on the sec and tesla, specifically the sec was concerned with the use and presentation of nongap measures in teslas august earnings and stated and i quote individually tailored later the sec went back to tesla and stated and i quote based on your request, it is not clear whether you intend to revive your disclosure as requested. Given that tesla has just taken on onerous debt from the solar city merger, they have recurring cash flow issues, they are nonprofitable, and now we have a situation that smacks of accounting irregularities, is this an automatic sell . All right. Heres the problem. People love the car. They love the car, they buy the stock. You cant break that linkage. That stock does not trade on the fundamentals. If it did, everything you said is true, and it would be much lower. It trades on an ethos. Its a cult stock. I dont recommend or bet against cult stocks. Colin in wyoming, colin. Caller hi, jim. Booyah from 5,000 feet up in wyomings rocky mountains. Caller having a lovely autumn fall. Lovely weather. My question is about making a quick trade around decembers fed meeting. For a quick trade only, should i buy a bank stock such as bank of america or maybe Something Else . Well, bank of america has had a major move. Im not going to be against owning bank of america, but today it was up the most. I think you can get that bank stock. Buy some now and then hope it pulls back a little. Behind the market that i think well look at it and say, oh, 21, 19, it didnt matter. It was about to have a major run, and i think thats true. Its anything but business as usual today. Its probusiness. The trump cabinet selections are sending a signal to wall street that he wants the economy to grow much faster than we think is possible. I think that could continue to fuel a rally, but it will be a rotational rally, one at a time. On mad tonight, from calvin to tommy to vanheusen, this around the globe. But can pvh remain the star of the runway as we enter the Holiday Season . Ive got the exclusive with the ceo. Then opec reached a deal to cut Oil Production today, and crude jumped 10 on the news. Ill tell you what the decision means for Oil Companies youre invested in here and at home. By the way, speaking of oil, im going to sit down with the ceo of Marathon Petroleum and see how the news could impact his stock. Stick with cramer. Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer oner have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Why are you checking your credit score . Hey hey ahhhh. Charades . Yeah, let me check my score too. Try credit karma. Its free. Check out credit karma today. Credit karma. Give yourself some credit. Because im a woman. Do you think im gonna crack under pressure ty. Made with flexfoam. Absorbs 10x its weight. Rewrite the rules. Always. I love my shop, but my back pain was making it hard to sleep and open up on time. Then i found aleve pm. The only one to combine a sleep aid plus the 12 hour pain relieving strength of aleve. Now im back. Aleve pm for a better am. Mmm. I cant believe its so delicious. I cant believe its made with real, simple ingredients. I cant believe were on a whale. I cant believe my role isnt bigger. Oh, its real. Real ingredients. Unbelievable taste. Go ahead, enjoy. [burke] hot dog. Seen it. Covered it. We know a thing or two because weve seen a thing or two. Real ingredients. Unbelievable taste. What are we supposed to make of the latest quarter from pvh, the apparel titan behind calvin klein and Tommy Hilfiger . Heres a company that seemed to be making a really strong comeback. The stock is up 40 for the year in the wake of several strong quarters. But as we enter the Holiday Season, some of the old negative themes have come back creeping into the picture. Strong dollar, weakness for many mallbased retailers maybe, which brings me to tonight. After the close, pvh reported a substantially better than expected quarter, but they gave guidance that i found a little the company delivered a 20cent earnings beat off a 2. 40 basis, slightly higher than expected revenue up 3. 7 yearoveryear. The beat was fueled by the strength of their calvin klein brand, particularly in europe and china. However, pvhs sales and earnings forecast for the next quarter came in below what the analysts were looking for. Wall street cares about the future as much as the past, so weve got to figure out what is going on. Is pvh really being conservative after a very good quarter . Maybe we should be worried. Lets check in with manny chirico, chairman and ceo of pvh, to learn more about the quarter and where his company is headed. Mr. Chirico, welcome back to mad money. Manny, i dont know. This was one of the biggest beats in all of the years youve been coming on. And yet i detect from the guidance that you almost want to say to people, dont get ahead of yourselves. But first lets talk. This was an amazing quarter, wasnt it . Yeah, we had a very strong quarter, particularly internationally. Right. Both in europe and in asia, our international comps for calvin klein were up double digits, as well for Tommy Hilfiger. So feel really strongly about the business. In europe in calvin is up over 20 , and the Tommy Hilfiger business is up 8 . Big business. To me, this was the quarter where the warnaco acquisition you got a little sidetracked because warnaco wasnt as strong as you kind of hoped when you got it. But this was the quarter that showed that this may be the real driver for pvh. I think thats right, but i would say the whole year has been a real driver. Through the whole nine months, weve been substantially beating our guidance and i guess through the middle of last year. So business has been surprisingly strong, particularly internationally, and i think were being cautiously conservative about how the Holiday Season is coming together. But, you know, based on black friday, we feel pretty good about business. Thats what i want to go into. Were in a fluid situation in this country. I detect from the merchants and ceos that i speak to that literally there has been postelection, whether its happening, that there is a bit more spend, a bit more goout. Is this just anecdotal on my part, or are you seeing in the statistics you have . No. Were seeing it in our business directly. Lets talk about november. The month of november, the week before the election, the week after, business was just it was tough in north america. All of a sudden, the last two weeks, as we started to go into black friday and right after, weve seen in our Retail Business a significant improvement in trends. Big Holiday Season in front of us. As we always are, were being conservative as were projecting the year and the balance of this quarter. So well see how it is. Trends right now, the last two weeks are running ahead of plan and margins are running significantly ahead of plan. If thats the case, im sensing that a macys, a jcpenney, a kohls are not having to discount. Theyre able to actually have a good Holiday Season so far. I dont want to talk about ill say my business in those channels of distribution is very strong. Terry lundgren was on, so im just quoting him. He was on cnbc on black friday. He said Tommy Hilfiger was on fire. So we feel really good about how that business is proceeding. But that is a nice change because that is one of the areas i wanted to ask you about. The north american Tommy Hilfiger, you werent that happy with. Look, our wholesale businesses in departments is very strong. Our Retail Businesses for the first nine months of the year has been tough. Weve talked about the international tourists. Weve talked about the dollar causing some issues there, and that trend continued in the Third Quarter despite the big beat we had. We started to see, as we got into the second half of november and into and as were going to go now into early december, there seems to be some momentum. I think were also starting to lap some of the dollar strengthening that happened this time last year where we were up against a much stronger weaker dollar prior to that. So, again, were feeling good this is the time to go running in. No. Theres a lot of noise out there, be it the election, what the ramifications of that is. I know wall street seems to be celebrating the election, which is great. But mr. Trumps got to take over. Theres a lot of questions about exactly what it means for trade and what it means for the dollar going forward. All those things just cause us to be cautious in our projections. You dont have to worry about trump ties coming back. There you go. Europe and asia had been points of, at times, pain, particularly europe. Are you surprised that europe is as strong as it is given what we read about over there . I think two things. I think europeans are staying in the European Market given where the currencies are. So i mean the uk, i know brexit, everybody is nervous about what it means going forward. But right now business couldnt be better in the uk. Weakening of that currency. The euro is buying more in that market, so more europeans and more americans are in that market. Theres more shopping going on in that market, and we are big beneficiaries. And china is a win, isnt it . Yeah. Well, two things for us. Our calvin business, which weve been running now

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