But the dow up, nasdaq up, sure didnt turn out that way, though. In the Early Morning hours we saw china literally gave up the ghost, plummeting 6 , and finishing at 2,749. That is well below the 3,000 line in the sand, as the Chinese Government tries to maintain. Maybe the communists decide the whole effort is futile and they dont want to spend anymore money propping up stocks, or maybe the sellers at last overwhelm the buyers. Including the prc. But either way, starting ugly. Meanwhile, oil after being 2 yesterday, falling back down to 30, was flirting with 29, insanity. Plus, with the Federal Reserve meeting on the horizon tomorrow, felt like it was another horrible session on its way. Yeah, 4 00 a. M. , etched in stone wed be down at least threequarters of a percent and the futures traders seemed to have their hearts set on appealing all the gains from late last week. I wanted to go back, but thats playoffs. Next thing you know, oil climbs back to 39. 21. Nobody thought that was in the cards, why . I could say ive given up trying to find logical explanations for the oil move. Forgive me, though, for going back to oil giant and the expiration for budgets are coming so fast supply and demand should come into play later this year. Plus, despite a story about the decline in chinese gasoline demand, we always seem to forget decline is a wrong word for china, its deceleration, not an absolute decline. I like what we heard last week, pleasantly surprised yesterday when halliburton said the same thing, competitor. Dont get these behemoths to agree. Remember, shareholders would like to hear the opposite, actually, but its tough to imagine oil plummeting through the mid 20s, frankly, because you have to believe actual like the airlines, cruise ships, will lock in oil at ultra low prices, which they must acknowledge might be a windfall and might not last. However, companies that want to remove the variable costs from the Balance Sheets and take advantage of the decline by buying it in the futures market. Its not just drivers that determine the level of usage or the price. Now, we know that in this crazy town market theres a ridiculous disconnect where all the restaurants and retailers are the first stocks to levitate when oil and, therefore, gasoline goes higher. What can i say . Happened again today, panera, mcdonalds, foot locker, meryl lynch jumped a couple, deckers, lululemon, up even best buy and bed, bath, and beyond, all jumped to the tune of the customers nemesis, the price of oil. Thats how this incredible stupid, miserable market works. The one thing we wanted to hear International Companies that eluded us, just plain old good, great companies. We got them. First, proctor and gamble put up good numbers, organic growth up nicely, i was anticipating a decline. Then they circled back to kimberlyclark, which reported a good number yesterday and got killed for it. Today the market rethinks. Gained back half its losses. Two more surprises, they were beauties, 3m and j j, growth criticized of late, last quarter brought out sellers in both. One quarter does not a stock make, but you have to be impressed with how much better they are doing than we thought. Thats the operation, than we thought. Given how beaten both stocks were, no wonder they zoomed ahead 7. 21 and 4. 78 respectively. Thats a good showing. Does that mean were back, so to speak . Another good day . Wait a sec, first we have to deal with apple. Company reported pretty much what everyone is looking for, bulls and bears, coincidentally. Earnings and iphone sales were what people were estimating, the stock was selling off in after hours. My take, heres a news flash, you own the stock, you dont trade it, because Nothing Shocking came out tonight and we are going to get an iphone 7 upgrade cycle later in the year. Those have been terrific catalysts for buyers. In the meantime, apples ridiculous 216 billion, up 5 from last quarter and 21 from a year ago gives them plenty of chances to buy back stocks or even a new revenue stream like a harman, tim, that ones on the house. Then tomorrow Oil Inventories at 10 30. Theyve been a house of pain every time theyve come out and inventories build and build and build. I think well get another bad one. Oil trades down later today, back. Given fuel is still pumping at a rate roughly similar to last year thanks to huge fields in the gulf of mexico coming on, dont expect anything good for oil. I think that these rallies include our allperfect opportunities to sell fossil fuel stocks. As much as oil is not going to routine, i cant see it going back to the 40s any time soon either, and thats really about as low as oil can go before the independent oils in north america start to get crushed. Wow. And, of course, at 2 00 p. M. Tomorrow we have the news that can stop any rally in its tracks, the Federal Reserve speaks about its policy decision. Heres what we need to pay close attention to, the last big fed head that spoke, he panned a chillingly positive outlook ten days ago, thats keeping with the four rate hikes Stanley Fischer seems to favor, if not savor. I think janet yellen is pain, not just on wall street, i think she sees the pain on main street with actual workers. I think she senses the layoffs since the last rate hike. She sees the spike in jobless claims. She doesnt want to be the fed chief that sends us back into recession with massive layoffs and close businesses, people out of work. Thats not her. I bet yellen backs away from the rate hike scenario, while crushing the auto and housing cycles, but does she say we need a couple of hikes this year . Or will yellen say now that weve raised rates and seen Commodity Prices decline, which may not be as temporary as we thought, weve got to go back to being data dependent. Wait until we see more inflation before tightening begins again. In this case, we have a rally, lets build one. No matter, heres the bottom line. This week weve had a host of Companies Report some pretty darn good numbers. If their stocks get rocked, remember youre getting them at bargains and if you get a green light from the fed, still plenty to buy in retail, restaurants, and Even Technology as declines have become horrendous and the feds to blame for whatever china and oil havent taken away already. Id like to go to frank in new york to start. Frank. Caller how are you, jim . Im good, jim, how about you . Caller im good. Thank you for taking my call, jim. Thank you. Caller my question is, i have some disney, you know, and the last few weeks it hasnt been doing well. Nothings been doing well, but today i heard it was downgraded. So i dont know, is that time to move on to Something Else . There are lots of people who like to trade disney. They are looking at it statically, saying bob eiger cant fix whatever decline there is in espn, therefore, the companys had it. Im taking a longer term, 180year view with disney, which its got great characters, got great management, got great weakness is ephemeral and well look back and not see a difference between 96 and 86 and well wish that we had bought. Miles in louisiana. Miles. Caller professor cramer, big booyah from new orleans. Boy, my daughter going to have too good a time down there, have to check on her. Whats going on . Caller in this market decline of volatile oil, would it make to invest in strong brand recognition, low evaluation, and most importantly, a strong dividend . Miles, what we do in new york, youre in louisiana, where ill be headed in a couple weeks. What we do is we step back and say they are throwing away all the good Apparel Companies like a Columbia Sportswear or like a b. F. , lets trade up and buy the better ones. I think that thats the better way if you believe in apparel than to go to guess. Susan in new york, susan . Caller hey, jim, how are you . Thanks for having me on. Booyah. Caller so, i bought gopro at 48 on its descent from 90. It did go back up to 60, but now 10, 11, approximately. Its Just Announced they are teaming up with periscope and twitter, and im just wondering snow, is gopro a stock, do i buy more . I dont want you to sell gopro at 10. Its got some value here. Id do periscope, you know, pretty much every night, but its not a needle mover and wont be a needle mover, im afraid, for gopro either. Im sorry you got hurt on that one, but i dont care where its come from, where its going to. Maybe it bounces and you can lighten up. This is a hot week in earnings. Some of these solid stocks get bought, i think youre getting them at a bargain. Theres still plenty to buy. Last week off the charts, guess what, she was right. Whats her call for this week . Im checking in. Then the major rail players are down double digits over the past could the decline be to pick up speed . Ill tell you if its time to abort and, smith wesson is up about 70 over the past year. Time to buy . Youre not going to want to miss my take. So stick with cramer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Today you can do everything in just one click, even keep your toilet clean and fresh. Introducing lysol click gel. Click it in to enjoy clean freshness with every flush. Lysol. Start healthing. Yeah, click seems like weve hit a road block. That reminds me. Anyone have occasional constipation, diarrhea. Gas, bloating . Yes one Phillips Colon Health probiotic cap each day helps defend against occasional digestive issues. With three types of good bacteria. Live the regular life. Here on mad money we always give credit where its due, and right now that means acknowledging the charts, specifically, brilliant technician that runs the website, also my colleague at realmoney. Com, she totally nailed this current rebound. For those of you that dont remember, on last weeks off the charts segment we checked in to see where she thought the s p 500 might be headed, and while her longterm view is far from bullish, she made a very contrary call at the time. She made a big point. She expected the averages to change the trajectory, albeit temporarily, some time last week. In other words, last tuesday she totally nailed this rally. So where do you see the market headed next now that she did that so right . Mistake the current strength versus sustainable advance. Take a look at this longterm monthly chart of the s p 500. Ever since the s p peaked at 2,134 last may, right smack in the middle in the range where she told us to expect the top, wow, shes been saying were vulnerable to a deep decline. Nothing about that has changed. Borodens methodologies is about looking at past swings, then learning them through the prism of fibonacci ratios and the key ones are 23. 6 , 38. 2 , 50 , 61. 8 , or 100 . So identify levels where stock or index might be likely to change trajectory. Change in trajectory. Those ratios were actually discovered by the medieval godfather of mathematics, leonardo fibonacci. They show up everywhere, flowers bloom, pine cones, snail shells, i kid you not. Show up on the charts. They really do. Shes been so right since we started the show, and while i cant come up with a compelling explanation of why that happens, it does. Thats how she nailed the peak in the s p 500 last year at 21. 34, right smack in the middle. As soon as we failed to clear that level, wed become vulnerable and thats exactly what happened. Unfortunately, the fibonacci fibonacci queen can see this going a lot lower for a lot longer before we get a real sustainable bottom. Boroden is not saying well absolutely get a positive decline, but the odds point to at least a bit more downsize in the coming months, so the longterm prediction is still pain. You can see thats what pain looks like, this gap is pain, okay . But how about the more intermediate term, which a lot of you people care about. S p 500. Remember in last weeks off the charts boroden told us fibonacci methodology suggested we get a shortterm bounce at some point between january 19th and january 22nd. Sure enough, market made a nasty new low on january 20th. Since then weve had few nice up days, just went down. Now that the bounce has arrived, what can we expect from the s p 500 Going Forward . Boroden believes that the january 20th low when the s p sank to 812, you can see how low it went, that was the intraday low, she now thinks that is an important level, but she doesnt believe it represents a genuine bottom and shes watching for another downside failure in the distant future. Why is that . In part because we made that low after the s p broke down not one, but two key support levels, meaning we bounced, but wasnt off a sustainable floor. See, we hit, then we bounce. She doesnt think its sustainable. So lets look at the next chart. It gives us a reading on when move. Now, i know it looks confusing, were going to go through it. Just as important, the same fibonacci timing that allowed at the beginning of the rebound last week is also telling her the current rally could be pretty short lived. The great thing about the way her system works is she can apply those fibonacci ratios to both moves, she can do it to the x the y axis and also the x axis, the time, okay, right now boroden sees a minor grouping of the fibonacci sequels, but more important she points out theres a cluster of the timing cycles coming due next week between tuesday, february 2nd, and friday, february 5th. This is what we have to watch. What exactly does it mean . When we hit that cluster next week, it also happens to coincide with another very important data point. The last two sustained rallies weve seen during this period where the market generally and 11 trading days respectively. If you start counting from the low we made last wednesday, then this current bounce will hit the 11day mark by next thursday, february 4th. Got that . 11day mark, february 4th. Exactly when borodens tells us the market decline is going to resume any time soon, she expected the pain to begin again next week because she finds it hard to believe a rally can last more than 11 trading days during a correction. This is how long theyve been lasting. This is the rally, this is the rally. She thinks thats going to hold true again. So thats time. What about price . Take a gander at this next daily chart of the s p 500. She says she cant point out where the next breakdown is going to occur, but she thinks its important to point out we have a serial resistance running from 1911, 1915, to down here, right, and running from 1978 to 2,000. In other words, anywhere from 1 bounce runs out of steam, so thats probably worth playing. But given the s p is currently trading below both its 50day and 200day moving average, she expects its going to run out of steam and you need to be ready for things to turn negative next week. Thats pretty fast. Let me give you the bottom line here, the charts interpreted suggests the current bounce is likely to be short lived. Either stop there or stop there. And given that she totally nailed where and when this bounce would happen, her view is after todays big rally, theres no absolutely no room for complacency. In fact, i would say given she thinks this could happen, caution. Caution should be the watch word. Okay, much more mad money ahead. Im taking a closer look at the most Important Group in this market, the rails. See if they can put your portfolio in the position to be the engine, not the caboose. Then smith wesson stocks come, right . Wrong. Ill explain. And can caterpillar dig itself out of the mess its in . Why dont you stick with cramer . Olay regenerist renews from within, plumping surface cells for a dramatic transformation without the need for fillers your concert tee might show your age. Your skin never will. Olay regenerist. Olay. Ageless. But now, i step on this machine and get my number which matches my dr. Scholls custom fit orthotic inserts. Now i get immediate relief from my foot pain. My lower back pain. Find a machine at drscholls. Com lets get these dayquil liquid gels and go. But these liquid gels are new. Mucinex fast max. Its the same difference. This one is max strength and fights mucus. Mucinex fast max. The only cold and flu liquid gel thats maxstrength and fights mucus. Lets end this. Degree motionsense is the worlds first deodorant activated by movement. As you move, fragrance capsules burst to release extra freshness all day. Motionsense. Protection to keep you moving. All aboard six months ago i told you that to go off the rails. Since then the rails have gotten slammed Norfolk Southern declining 19 . Pacific 17 . Nearly 30 . Decline to all. Have they gone down enough . Rather than being a tease, let me say right up front, with some caveat, i think the answer is, yes. Some of the Railroad Stocks have turned into pretty darn attractive. No rush, wait for the next marketwide selloff before you pull the trigger so you can pick on weakness, rather than chasing them after the strength that we had today. Get some oil just turned down after hours, maybe that will help. To put it another way, if you see yesterdays levels again, might want to start doing some buying. First off, these Railroad Companies have been struggling with major declines, both secular and cyclical in many of the largest cargoes. Coal has been the poster child for this issue. Remember, you got to ship by rail, cant go by truck. More recently, oil itself as a too, because back during the shale boom o producers would pay the ship vast quantities of crude by train at a very expensive price. Wasnt enough pipeline capacity. The rails also shipped drill pipe, fracking sand, and materials to build up the pipelines we talk about so much. Needless to say, with the price of oil down big year over year at the same time a lot of pipelines have been built, this business has been eviscerated. How much damage has the weakness in fossil fuels done to the Railroad Companies, and is all of that pain reflected in the stocks yet . House of pain why dont we go through the rails one by one, csx coal and oil accounted for revenue in 2014 and from its peak in 2014 to the 12th yesterday, the stock has declined 42. 2 . In other words, theres currently trading like business is going to disappear entirely. Norfolk southern was 34. 8 coal its down more than 42 . Union pacific, 34. 5 , stocks down 44 from peak. While coal and oil were substantial parts of the business for all of the rails in