>> susie: good evening, everyone. oil prices fell by the most in a week, but don't start celebrating yet. tom, many other factors are affecting supply and prices. >> tom: susie, the main reason for today's drop in crude: talk of some western nations possibly tapping in emergency oil reserves. so in new york trading, crude futures fell $1.92 to close at $105.41 a barrel. that decline in oil puts pressure on energy shares, which contributed to a down day for stocks. the dow lost 71 points, the s&p slipped seven, and the nasdaq fell 15. >> susie: meanwhile, gasoline prices are still moving higher. aaa said today the average price of unleaded gas is now $3.91 a gallon, that's up 19% this year. and prices could go even higher in the coming months. suzanne pratt has the story. >> reporter: a funny thing-- as in funny, "weird"-- is happening in the u.s. energy market. demand is down, and that's no surprise given prices at the pump are at ten-month highs. what is a surprise is that several east coast oil refiners are exiting the business, now of all times. at a recent analyst meeting, exxonmobil c.e.o. rex tillerson explained profits are hard to come by because east coast refineries use pricey foreign crude oil. >> in the fourth quarter of last year, many u.s. refiners were losing money. we made... throughout the fourth quarter on our u.s. refining, we made less than one-third of one penny per gallon. >> reporter: so, just as many americans are gearing up to hit the road for summer vacations, the east coast is losing a big chunk of its refining capacity. can you say bad timing? on top of that, the economy looks to be improving, which means more americans get jobs and perhaps drive to them. some of the lost refining capacity will be made up elsewhere in the u.s., for a price. >> it's a question of getting it to the east coast, and that's going to involve transportation costs. so, rather than no gasoline available, it will probably be available at a higher price. >> reporter: but the big worry is about a potential supply shortage this summer just as demand could be revving up. and you know what that means: there be could even higher prices at the pump. >> so, currently we're about $4 u.s. retail average gasoline prices for regular gasoline. i think, in all likelihood, if i had to put a number on it, about 10%. >> reporter: here's something else that could drive prices higher. by law, it's time for gas stations like this one to switch to selling summer-grade gasoline. not only is it harder to make, but it's also more expensive. suzanne pratt, "nightly business report," new york. >> tom: shelley goldberg is the director of global resources and commodities strategy at roubini global economics. >> shelley, french government minister says that france, britain and the u.s. talk about releesing strategic reserves. we've heard that before. if you believe it, would it help? >> well, you're absolutely right. we have heard it before, and frankly, no one has commited to this yet. there is talk that it could just be rhetoric to push down price that is are currently quite high. now typically, release of strategic reserves is done in a time of war, in time of a major crisis. it happened in lib ya, and people could say that was a civil war. right now we're not faceed with war, and the u.s. hasn't said nor has france said they're going to do it. we think it won't happen, but you have to look further into the geopolitical risks driving the market. >> tom: you heard the talk about possible shortages of gasoline. do you believe that this summer with refinery shut downs? >> well, gasoline demand has come off. as you noted. crude prices have come off again today because of an injection of 7.1 million barrels. wob could say the u.s. is awash in crude oil. globally, we're tight n. terms of demand, gasoline demand is actually coming off. you look at daily demand and it's well off. >> tom: shelley, we have a picture of that back to 2008 when oil in the u.s. hit $150 a barrel. back then manners were burning $9 million barrels a day. at those prices the great recession has ruined some of the demand and appetite for gasoline. but the job market is picking up. and we've seen recently it pick up again in the past week or so. >> that's true. although when you look at gas demand currently on a daily basis, we're consuming 8.8 million barrels down from 9.25 last career and the year before n. '07, we were consuming 9.5. so it's down, and the correction of your statement of unemployment. one also has to look at that number in a detailed fashion and say how many people are dropping out of the labor mark. >> tom: on memorial day, detail pump prices over $4. >> likely, yes. >> okay. >> and how about by the end of the year? st3.50? >> it has to do with the political issue. will israel invade iran, will the u.s. have a blockade >> tom: that's of what ifs. >> the bottom line is we believe hoil prices are going higher. we believe gasoline priepss in the u.s. are going higher. >> tom: shelley goldberg from roubini global economics. >> susie: bank of america wants to spread its reach. the nation's second largest bank plans to expand its operations all around the world, according to today's "wall street journal." reportedly, the giant bank is assembling an international advisory board to help it boost its presence in global markets. does a potential move into international markets mean bank of america has resolved its troubles on the home front, or is the new banking giant desperate for new revenue? bank of america's revenue outside the u.s. climbed to almost $20 billion last year, up more than 30% from the year before. but still, the bank's international operations account for only 20% of total revenues. the focus on global opportunities comes as b-of-a continues wrestling with mortgage troubles inherited with its 2008 purchase of subprime lender countrywide financial and a bruised reputation with american consumers. our next guest says bank of america's strategy makes sense. he's richard bove, veteran banking analyst at rochdale securities. >> hi, rich. >> hi, suze. >> susie: most people think of bank of america, and think housing prices and foreclosure prices. and investors think it's a little too soon for bank of america to move into new areas until they resolve their issues otd homefront. you think this is the right time for bank of america to go international. tell us why? >> because first off, i think that the housing problems are starting to abate for bank of america. and i think their legal issues are also starting to come under control which means i think the company can notice start to focus on where it's going to get the growth in the business. i think once they think about that, they're going to realize that in the united states, they've probably maximized their market share geographically and product-wise, and therefore going overseas makes a great deal of sense, particularly since they own merrill lynch which is a strong international branch. >> susie: you see merrill lynch as the driving force here? >> absolutely. with the traditional bank of america, it's going to provide a very rich cash flow which merrill lynch will use to expand the capital market business internationally. >> susie: j.p. morgan and citi have a huge footprint in the international market. how hard is it for bank of america to compete and catch up. >> i think it's easy, because when you think what's happening to european banks, they're all shrinking and coming away from asia. in fact, many of the governments in europe have instructed their banks to reduce their presence in asia and other places around the world. the problem is if there's two banks there. they're strong in latin america, they're going to pull back dramatically, and there's no american banks really, other than citibank, j.p. morgan and goldman sachs that are competing. i think there's a vacuum, and i think bank of america through merrill lynch can come in successfully. >> susie: you've been very bullish on bank stocks, and you've been aggressively buying bank of america. let's take a look at your favorite picks among the big banks. besides bank of america, j.p. morgan, citi and wells fargo. you also recommend comerica. u.s. bank corp, and just to mention some of them. most people think the banks are in deep trouble. why do you like them? >> first off, at this stage -- in other words, in the last 10 quarters bankering is up year over year. loan volume is increasing. because the yield curve sell a little bit steeper, we're getting better margins. we're seeing income rise from trading and investors banking and deposit fees going up, and bigger income from asset management, and the costs are under control. at the same time, the balance sheet of the industry is stronger than it has been at any time in the past three decades. the companies actually have more capital and percentage of assets going back to 1938. so it's psychology that's killing these companies. >> susie: very upbeat view otd financials. thank you so much, we prrnt you coming on the program. and before you go. any disclosures to make about the stocks you mentioned? >> unfortunately, i can't buy anything. >> susie: thanks so much for coming on the program. and we've been speaking with richard bove of rochdale securities. >> tom: still ahead, the u.s. supreme court wraps up three days of historic arguments over the president's health care law. we'll look at what's at stake for health care investors. housing is the wild card in the recovering u.s. economy, and over the next two weeks here ar n.b.r. we're taking the temperature of the real estate market across the u.s. tonight, we head to chicago. the windy city didn't see the stratospheric increase in home prices that las vegas and south florida did, but illinois is one of the top five states with foreclosures. home sales have been gaining steam in recent months, but as diane eastabrook reports the threat of more foreclosures could derail that. >> reporter: in chicago, spring has definitely sprung, and with it comes hope the city's housing market will awake from a long hibernation. >> we're starting to see a very excited early spring market. >> reporter: real estate expert russ haraus says the reason for the excitement is the increase in pending home sales last month. they were up roughly 70% for both single family homes and condominiums. renter lisa barlow has been on the fence about buying a condo for the past year, but lately she's been surfing the internet daily for a one-bedroom unit. >> well, one, i have a large dog, so i'm looking for something that will accept a dog. i'm trying to find something in the 900-square-feet area and is in good condition, and that's by public transportation. >> reporter: but barlow is still hesitant to buy now for the same reason she hasn't bought in the past year: falling home values. in february, the median price for attached homes in chicago dropped 15% from the previous year. the decline for detached homes was more modest. and prices could fall further. that's because foreclosure filings increased more than 40% last month after state attorneys general and lenders reached a settlement on uniform filing procedures. haraus thinks those distressed properties could weigh on the market for years because in illinois foreclosures must be court approved. >> there are so many cases in the judicial system right now that the system has slowed down and been back-logged. and judges aren't very quick to work through the process. so that's taking some time. >> reporter: still, there's reason for optimism. real estate agent mabel guzman is seeing a lot of cash buyers coming into the market to scoop up cheap properties, and she thinks they'll keep coming. >> what we're seeing is a lot of folks are buying and they're holding. they're holding and they're renting because they say, "if i can rent this unit and it's going to be cash flow-positive, i'll sit on it for the next three years. i'll watch the market, and i know i can make my money then, plus making some money now." >> reporter: and that could be the answer to chicago's real estate woes. with more people leasing instead of buying, some real estate experts think rents could go up as much as 20% this year over last, and that could encourage some potential buyers like lisa barlow to stop procrastinating. diane eastabrook, "nightly business report," chicago. >> tom: we continue our look at the spring housing market tomorrow right here in miami. seven years ago, it was on the leading edge of the nation's housing collapse. today, demand is up, supplies are down and the market is heating up. >> susie: on capitol hill today, m.f. global was in the spotlight. lawmakers wanted the answer to one question: where did more than $1.5 billion in client money go? a house committee questioned company insiders about who authorized the use of customer funds to cover the firm's bad bets. last december, former c.e.o. jon corzine told lawmakers m.f. global assistant treasurer edith o'brien would know. today, she declined to answer. >> on the advice of counsel, i respectfully decline to answer based on my constitutional rights. >> susie: o'brien was dismissed, tom, but lawmakers continued questioning some of her higher- ups to little avail, leaving one representative to say, "apparently, no one did anything wrong, but there's a billion dollars missing." tom: continue, and in the market, the financial sector was one of those limiting the losses as we saw today. take a look at tonight's market focus. we saw stocks continue to pull back as commodity prices push down some of the key stock sectors. except for a short time right after the open this morning, the s&p 500 spent the session in the red. looking at the index this year, the weakness we've seen over the past week has not changed its upward slopping trend, a series of higher highs and higher lows so far. sectors most closely tied to commodity prices saw the brunt of the selling. the materials sector fell 1.5%. energy and industrials were down at least 1% each. metals were among the worst performing commodities groups, both industrial and precious metals. copper fell on the heels of the weaker durable goods data. copper can be a key metal for some of those big products. silver and gold also fell. and that had the effect of pressuring mining stocks like freeport macmoran. shares fell more than 3.5%. volume spiked with shares closing at their lowest price of the year. caterpillar shrank 3.5%. this puts the stock below the low of its sell-off earlier this month. it's now at a ten-week low. investors had a big appetite for organic bunny crackers and mac and cheese. food company annie's sold stock to the public for the first time, and it was big. the stock priced higher than expected thanks to plenty of demand, and it continued climbing from there, closing up almost 90% for the best first day of trading for a new stock in ten months. >> as a consumer, i love the products. but i'm not ready to invest after this huge pop. a look at it as a public company first. also, vu to ask yourself when you're investing in anything, do you believe the organic food revolution will continue to enter the mainstream and become a larger part of every consumers purchasing habits. >> tom: the new stock offering market has been decent this month, with 11 out of 12 new stocks introduced in march trading higher on their first day of public ownership. while the supreme court has been hearing arguments regarding the health reform law, a biotech company has attracted the attention of at least one big drug maker. amylin is the target of the interest from bristol myers squibb. bristol-myers offered $22 per share, but amylin said no. shares of amylin responded by jumped almost 55% to over $23 per share. b-m-y, the interested buyer, was unchanged. one reason for the interest may be amylin's diabetes drugs. and that's tonight's "market focus." >> susie: investors in all kinds of health care stocks are now facing an anxious wait. the supreme court wrapped three days of arguments over president obama's healthcare law, and the court's decision on whether to scuttle all or parts of the law is not expected until late june. as darren gersh reports, the key question today was, how much of the law could remain if the individual mandate is struck down? >> reporter: sometimes legal argument is elevated and subtle, and sometimes it's pretty basic. here's how justice elena kagan summed up the choice before the court today. >> and the question is always, does congress want half a loaf? is half a loaf better than no loaf? >> well, justice kagan, i think there are situations where half a loaf is actually worse. >> reporter: paul clement represents 26 states fighting the affordable care act. if the court declares the individual mandate is unconstitutional, clement says keeping the rest of the law makes no economic sense. the new marketplaces for insurance would not function well, and insurance companies would be saddled with huge costs. that hit home with justice anthony kennedy, who often casts the deciding vote in the court's closest cases. >> we would be exercising the judicial power, if one act was... one provision was stricken and the others remained, to impose a risk on insurance companies that congress had never intended. by reason of this court, we would have a new regime that congress did not provide for, did not consider. that, it seems to me, can be argued at least to be a more extreme exercise of judicial power than to strike... than striking the whole. >> reporter: health care stocks may have had a muted reaction to the supreme court arguments, but after three days opinion has clearly shifted from a low probability the court will overturn the law. now investors think it's better than a 50/50 chance the court will send congress back to square one. >> investors have to be thinking more seriously about the possibility of the mandate being struck down and potentially the whole law being struck down. >> reporter: and susie, that is one of the reasons this could be the biggest decision the court has made in a long time. >> susie: it's fascinating. you've been all over this story. so what did you learn this week? what are people reading into what the justices have said? >> well, i think they're reading into what the justices said about the mandate. and just dee kennedy is the key swing vote. he's broken a lot of ties in the history of the court. he says the mandate faces a heavy constitutional burden. also today, it was kind of surprising. it looks like a lot of the justices were willing to strike the entire law if that mandate is, in fact, unconstitutional. >> susie: so from the experts you're talking to, if the court strikes down this mandate, what happens? is the rest of the health care law salvageable? do you have to go back to square one and start all over again? >> there are a lot of knife finalitys. cutting a loaf in half. >> susie: i noticed. >> cutting the guts out of the bill. these are lawyers. they don't seem to want to do a lot of surgery on the bill. they're concerned if they start to figure out one part is unconstitutional, then they have to say, would congress have wanted to keep this in if that's unconstitutional. they don't seem to want to go there. >> susie: and now we have to wait until june to find out. the suspense. thanks, darren. darren gersh, our washington bureau chief. >> tom: the federal tax filing deadline is just under three weeks away. this year, it falls on april 17. all this week, kevin mccormally of kiplinger's personal finance is offering his best tax advice. in tonight's "tax tips," it's time to pay if you converted an individual retirement account into a roth i.r.a. here's kevin. >> it's time to pay the piper if you're among the investors who eagerly took advantage of a sweet tax break in 2010, the chance to convert a traditional i.r.a. to a roth and postpone the tax bill on the deal. usually when you convert, 100% of the money shifted into the roth is taxable in the year of the switch. it's a big hit, but the payoff is sweet: 100% of withdrawals in retirement can be tax free. now, to encourage conversions and the tax revenue they produce, congress offered those who converted in 2010 the opportunity to divide and delay the payment; half the bill would be due with 2011 returns and the remainder the following year. well, guess what? it's time to file that 2011 return and pay the first half of the tax bill. now, you should have filed a form 8606 with your 2010 return, reporting the conversion and noting how much income you'd be reporting on your 2011 return. dig out a copy of that form and plug in the appropriate number on line 15b of your form 1040. now, for those of you who didn't convert in 2010, remember, there's no longer an income limit on who can make the switch. consider whether it makes sense to convert part of your traditional i.r.a. to a roth this year. the sooner you move your money into the roth, the sooner you'll be earning tax-free income for your retirement. i'm kevin mccormally. >> susie: tomorrow, the economy, jobs and housing. we tackle those topics with an influential member of the federal reserve. we'll bring you an exclusive interview with philadelphia fed president charles plosser. >> tom: that's "nightly business report" for wednesday, march 28. i'm tom hudson. good night, everyone. and good night to you, too, susie. >> susie: good night, tom. i'm susie gharib. good night, everyone. we hope to see all of you again tomorrow night. 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