>> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> it's hard not to feel pride as a citizen of this country when we're in a place like this. >> and by the alfred p. sloan foundation. supporting science, technology, and improved economic performance and financial literacy in the 21st century. >> supported by the rockefeller foundation. promoting the well-being of humanity around the world by building resilience and inclusive economies. more at rockefellerfoundation.org >> carnegie corporation of new york. supporting innovations in education, democratic engagement, and the advancement of international peace and security. at carnegie.org. >> and with the ongoing support of these institutions: and individuals. >> this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> woodruff: in a setback for president trump and congressional republicans, the plan to hold a vote in the house of representatives this evening on a replacement for the affordable care act-- also known as obamacare-- has been delayed. we have reporters at both the white house and capitol hill on today's frenzied efforts to win over g.o.p. hold-outs. let's start with lisa desjardins at the capitol. >> desjardins: at the u.s. capitol, the day began with empty space: the room where republicans had hoped to hold a meeting of all their members. and an empty podium, where speaker paul ryan's usual lunchtime news conference was delayed indefinitely. rules committee chairman pete sessions explained in an unusually blunt update about the g.o.p. leaders' health care bill. >> we think we have to make changes but today we are here right now to say i don't have those answers. >> desjardins: and republicans also didn't have the votes. and so, yet again, members of the conservative house freedom caucus went to the white house to negotiate with president trump. they had already won concessions over the weekend. the bill would cut medicaid spending by at least $880 billion over the next decade, and now gives states the option of cutting medicaid further, by possibly adding work requirements. it gives a lump tax credit to recipients, based largely on age. and, it would also end the taxes in the affordable care act immediately. but conservatives pressed for additional changes today. specifically, they want the bill to cut the so-called "essential health benefits" guaranteed by obamacare. that would mean insurers would n longer have to provide coverage in areas like mental health, maternity and prescription drugs. but when the freedom caucus returned from the capitol, swarmed by media... >> are you a yes yet? >> i'm not going to say. >> desjardins: ...there was no deal yet and the first indications that there would not be a vote either. michigan's justin amash. >> ultimately hope to get to yes, but it would be mistake to move forward today. >> desjardins: a different timeline from freedom caucus chairman mark meadows. yes or no on what happens there are not enough votes as of 1:30 today. i'm desperately trying to get to yes. i think the president knows >> desjardins: but the white house was also meeting, negotiating with moderate republicans, who openly oppose some of the changes for conservatives, and the bill itself. as republicans faced two internal fronts, democrats stayed on the attack. >> rookie's error donald trump. you may be a great negotiator-- up on a day when clearly you're rookie's error for bringing this not ready. >> desjardins: house minority leader nancy pelosi made republicans a kind of offer. >> if this bill were to fail today, rookie day, i would-- i stand ready to negotiate with them on how we can go forward on incorporating some of their ideas. this is a bad day for them. it's bad if they win and it's bad if they lose. >> desjardins: the view from the white house podium could not have been more different. the president's spokesman, sean spicer. that we've been very clear about this a priority of ours and and we worked with them. but again i go back to-- at the end of the day we cant make people vote. >> desjardins: and at the end of the day neither could republican leadership, pushing off the vote until at least tomorrow. >> woodruff: and lisa is with us now live from the capitol. she's joined by john yang at the white house. lisa, how certain are they that this vote will be tomorrow? >> they're not certain. in fact, the house, the man in charge of scheduling, house majority leader kevin mccarthy is only saying he hopes this vote will happen tomorrow. tonight the full house republican conference will meet, judy. they will have an idea after that roughly of where things stand. >> woodruff: so john, what are they saying at the white house? this afternoon the press secretary sean spicer was sounding confident this vote was coming, that they had the votes. that didn't work out. >> well, judy, they still say they are confident when the vote takes place, what whenever that may be, they will have the votes. but it's clear behind the scenes that they don't. they aren't there yet. the president is working the phones, we're told. he was working the phones until midnight last night. he will meetings today as lisa reported with both conservatives and moderates. they are still working to get the votes to get it through the house, and of course after they do that, then they have to work to get it through the senate. >> woodruff: and lisa, pick up on that. i mean talk about this, really a dilemma the republican leadership is faced with. they are trying to repeal appeal both to moderates and conservatives at the same time and each side wants something different. >> that's right. initially house leaders thought they could offer something to conservatives that would not be a problem for moderates. but they've gone past that point. now for everything they offer conservatives, every essential health benefit, for example, that may come out of this bill in some form, that is something that moderates see as a loss for their constituents. moderates are worried about coverage. everyone is worried about coverage. but as a matter of priority, moderates are worried about coverage and people covered. the conservatives are worried about how much government is involved. how much government is spending here, so every dime that you take off the table, moderates see that as a coverage loss. and that's a real dilemma for republicans. >> if it is a dilemma for republicans on the hill, john, it's certainly a problem for the white house. how are they approaching this divided set of needs or demands coming from republican members? >> well, you know, the president is not an idea logical president. he's less worried about the idea logical issues here. he's worried about getting to yes, getting to the votes they need to get this through congress. the message that you are hearing from the white house is that the house republicans, recalcitrant white house republicans is this is something you campaigned on, something you promised your voters, now is the time. sean spicer today had some pretty tough words reminding house republicans of all the quote free votes they took to repeal obamacare, knowing that president obama would veto those bills. but now he said it's a live ball. in other words, and this is my interpretation of sean's words, it's time to put up or shut up. >> woodruff: and now lisa, in the middle of all of this, late this afternoon, the congress ag budget office has come out with another calculation, if you will, of the fiscal impact of this bill as it was being modified, tweaked. and it's interesting, the numbers have just as many people losing coverage. and yet a smaller decrease in the size of the deficit. >> that's right, essentially the cbo is saying that republicans with their changes are spending more money. they still ultimately would shave a little off the deficit, about 150 billion but that's less than they would have saved in their initial vesion. saying even though the price tag has gone up on this bill, there are not more people covered. now one reason for that, swrudy, this gets wonky is the way that the house did this, they offered a new tax deduk but really-- deduction but that money is meant for the senate to spend later for that could. it may be a false read. either way we know many millions would not be covered under this republican health-care bill. and to pick up on something that swron was saying, i talked to one republican here, this is a test for the white house, but tom cole of oklahoma, a deputy whip told me, this is a test over whether republicans can move from being an opposition party to being a governing party. he said we still have to pass that test. >> woodruff: finally, john, what do they say at the white house? what is your read on what is at stake for them? >> a lot at stake. not only is this the first legislative initiative on the president's part. not only does he say this would clear the way for tax-- the tax cut legislation and the infrastructure legislation to come that he promises this year, but also this is a president whose whole image is based on success and deal-making. and if he fails on his first time out, the question is whether that image is tarnished. >> woodruff: well, all eyes are on the places where the two of you are tonight. john yang at the white house, lisa desjardins at the capitol, thank you bo >> woodruff: in the day's other news, british police identified the man who drove a car into pedestrians near parliament yesterday and fatally stabbed a police officer, before being shot to death. officials called it a lone-wolf attack. paul davies of independent television news reports from london. >> reporter: we know what he did. we now know his name, the man on the stretcher, the man who launched his own attack on democracy yesterday was khalid masood. he had been living in the west midlands where he hired the car he used as a lethal weapon. he was born in kent, the so called islamic state say he had become one of their soldiers. today because of his actions, flags were flying at half-mast over parliament, while side-by-side a painstaking investigation into an act of terror was being conducted, as the workings of the democracy he had come to hate were continuing. the prime minister left downing street heading for the commons in a show of business as usual. >> we are not afraid. and our resolve will never waiver in the face of terrorism. >> reporter: there has been a huge and deliberate effort to reflect life as normal here. an impression that's been supported by the reopening of the bridge that was the scene of carnage yesterday. asia frada a 43 year old who worked at a school in london a and kirk cochran a 54 year old american tourist had been named as the two pedestrians knocked down and killed yesterday. seven others who were injured by the terrorist car as it crossed westminster bridge are still said to be in critical condition. they include a romannian woman seen in this footage falling too the thames as she tried to avoid the vehicle. last night police raided properties in london, wales and here in birmingham. an operation that has continued through >> woodruff: this evening, another victim of the attack died of her injuries. in israel, police arrested a jewish teenager today, and said he's the main suspect in dozens of bomb threats against jewish community centers in the u.s. the man also holds u.s citizenship. he covered his face with a sweatshirt at a court hearing near tel aviv. his lawyer said he has behavioral problems. >> this is a young person, that because of his very, very serious medical condition, did not serve in the army, did not go to high school and did not go to elementary school. so, that is why the medical condition can actually affect the investigation. >> woodruff: it's unclear what the suspect's motive might have been. his identity is being withheld by order of the court. the chairman of the intelligence committee in the house of representatives apologized today, after publicly disclosing, and sharing with the president, intelligence intercepts of the trump transition team. devin nunes announced yesterday that these occurred during legal surveillance of foreign nationals. this and his briefing of the president, came without first telling committee democrats. today, nunes said it was a judgment call. but a democrat on the committee, california's jackie speier said that's not enough. >> he just apologized. he didn't specify what his apology was about. he knows full well that there is grave question about his objectivity. and i think over next few days we're going to assess whether or not we feel confident that he can continue in that role. >> woodruff: democrats accused nunes of trying to give mr. trump cover for unsubstantiated claims that president obama wire-tapped trump tower. we'll look into the partisan fighting over this, and what happens next, after the news summary. secretary of state rex tillerson has told u.s. embassies to begin "extreme vetting" of foreigners applying for visas. reuters quotes diplomatic cables that ask u.s. officials to identify "populations warranting increased scrutiny." the report says tillerson also wants mandatory social media checks for any applicant who's ever been in territory controlled by the islamic state group. the u.n. refugee agency is warning the "worst is yet to come" for iraqis in western mosul. an estimated 400,000 civilians are trapped in areas still controlled by isis fighters, as government troops fight to recapture the city. u.n. officials say they're in desperate need of food, medical aid and basic supplies. as many as 12,000 have been fleeing each day. democrats in the u.s. senate served notice today that they will try to block confirmation of judge neil gorsuch to the supreme court. minority leader chuck schumer went to the senate floor to announce his opposition. he also made clear that a filibuster is coming. >> after careful deliberate raise, i have concluded that i cannot support judge neil gorsuch's nomination to the supreme court. his nomination will have a cloture vote. he will have to earn 60 votes for confirmation. my vote will be no. and i urge my colleagues to do the same. >> woodruff: majority republicans would need to peel off at least eight democrats to get to 60 votes. or, they can scrap that rule, allowing gorsuch to be confirmed by a simple majority. meanwhile, the judge's confirmation hearings wrapped up today, with lawyers, advocacy groups and others getting their say about gorsuch, for and against. and on wall street, the delay of the health care vote in the house wiped out an early rally. the dow jones industrial average lost four points to close at 20,656. the nasdaq fell about four points, and the s&p 500 slipped two. still to come on the newshour: calls for an independent investigation after the house intel chair apologizes for going straight to the white house more u.s. troops on the ground in syria. the potential impact of the republican health care plan, and much more. >> woodruff: we return to the controversy created by the chairman of the house intelligence committee's allegations about surveillance of the trump transition. hari sreenivasan has the story. >> sreenivasan: and for more on all of this we turn to matthew rosenberg, who has been following this for the "new york times." matthew, the intelligence committees both on the house and the senate side have been one of these last bastions of bipartisanship and cooperation. what has been happening in the last 24 hours? >> well, first we had devin nu nez going public with conversation that people close to trump, he had gleened their names from intercepts passed from the previous administration tks was unclear what exactly he was saying. then he went to the public and ran to the white house to brief the president before he even told his own committee members. basically for all the democrats on the committee in the house prompted them to say this investigation is not going to be independent. mr. noon easy will either be a white house surrogate or throw a white house investigation. it put into question whether they could run an independent investigation. it also completely mudied the waters. it wasn't clear what he was talking about. so when intelligence is gathered, if the u.s., the nsa or cia are listening to a foreign official, if an american is on that, calls them or is sussed by that official, that is called incidentally collection, the american is incidentally swept up into the intelligence gathering and when that intelligence is spread to other parts of the government, their name and identity is supposed to be obscured, it is called masked or minimized. and he suggested he may have been unmasked inappropriately but it's not clear it is incredibly confusing, that is part of the problem. today he apologized to the committee members but the damage was really done here. >> sreenivasan: most of the work of these committees happens behind closed doors, not in front of cameras and microphones. when a piece of information comes to the committee, how does it usually work its way through and what happened this time. >> well, what tends to happen is the first thing they do is brief the rest of the committee on it. and depending on what kind of information it is, it remains private in this case this is classified information. the existence of these intercepts is classified, the contents are obviously classified. so nu nez did two things, he didn't reef his fellow committee members, he went to the public and then the white house, which is of course the subject of this investigation, and at the same time he discussed classified information publicly. this is a man who complained about leakers extensively. and grilled the fbi director about prosecuting leakers. >> sreenivasan: there are three different types of alternatives being proposed, some people ask for a special prosecutor. i think senator jack reid was calling for that, and there are folks that say we need a 9/11 style special commission an also people who say let's take a select committee approach that maybe similar to what happened with benghazi, what is the likelihood of any of those three. >> you know, at this point, everything i predict around here doesn't go right. so i am hesitant to kind of put the odds on this one. i think you know, you will have a lot more democrats pressing for a truly independent investigation. especially the fbi is pursuing, they're pursuing their own counterin2e8 against investigation but there is a criminal element to that. and i think there are a lot of people on the hill ho would like to have an investigation that could bring charges if necessary. >> what is the attention that exist are-- the tension that exists twoon the two leaders, they have gone out of their way to make sure as this investigation progressed it would be some what cordial and they would be respectful of each other trying to get to the same end goal. >> that is what was amazing about what happened yesterday. you are right, mr. schiff, mr. nunez and democratic counterpart adam schiff made this real show of working together. even add monday's hearing the body language between the two of them was incredibly positive and yesterday, it seemed to blow up. and it is not really clear exactly what happened there or why. but it does seem that there is a real lasting damage there. >> sreenivasan: there was calls from senator mccain on the republican side and i think joe biden even tweeted where he wrote checks and balances, ime mark. chair of committee investigating white house, can't share is info with white house, mccain is right, need select committee. is that gaining any momentum? >> it's hard to say right now. the house has been deep into the health-care bill over the last day and a half. the senate is obviously dealing with the gor shuch nomination. so i think we're going to see am the incomes few days where this goes as those issues fade and this issue comes back. and there are supposed to be more hearings next week by the house intelligence committee. >> sreenivasan: all right, matthew rosenberg of "the new york times," thanks so much. >> thank you. >> woodruff: stay with us, coming up on the newshour: betting on the trump presidency. exploring how memories can shape our present lives. and a brief but spectacular take on slam poetry. but first, how the republican bill could change insurance coverage and costs, if it's core ideas become law. our team has traveled across the country to capture the stories and voices of those who could be most impacted. we have two of those profiles tonight. we start with the perspective of a small business owner and her employees in zanesville, ohio. she hopes a new law would offer cheaper insurance options with fewer required benefits. that's been the source of much debate today, and is a possible element in "health care's next act." >> my name is kelly moore, and i here at our store, g.k.m. auto parts, we run as a napa auto parts. before the a.c.a., we offered full insurance as far as meaning that we paid 80% percent of the premium. the employees paid 20% percent of the premium. it covered not only their office cares and their medical and hospital, but also prescription drug plan. >> my name is darin lawler, i'm 51, i manage the dresden store, i've been with the company for around seven years. when i first got here, i had insurance for my family and i, through the company. and, very, you know, relatively good insurance. we had healthcare, and we had dental and, it was affordable. >> when the exchanges opened, and the affordable care act came into play, every year, with the exception of one, my insurance went up double digits for the first time ever. and so, because we're having to 6share that mandate with suddenly, we are having to cover things like pregnancy and other conditions that my folks may not need the coverage on. everyone, our coverage had to go we had to scale back our premium portion from 80% percent to 70% percent and then to 60% percent, in order to afford it as a company. it got to the point for us as a company, that it was no longer a benefit for the employees. we were forced to go on our own, and its-- affordable care isn't very affordable. at this point right now my family and i do not have insurance. >> at this point right now, my family and i do not have insurance, because of the act and we're actively searching, but we just have not come up with anything that we can afford at this point, that is >> it was gut wrenching to make that decision, to pull that trigger. i lost sleep, i, i did everything i could. i spent most of my time at my desk, not doing the other duties of my job, but rather trying to crunch numbers to find a way to offer that insurance benefit. >> you could see it in her eyes. and, she just, just kind of the way she talked. just, it was upsetting to her. and, you know, it would be! because they've always, you know, that was one of the things. we had decent benefits here. and, that was one of the things that they can't do for us anymore, and you know, it was hard on her. >> i hope that the government steps back a little more from the business of offering healthcare. i would like to see healthcare traded across state lines the way we do auto insurance, the way we can get our business insurance. i would like to see fewer mandates on the program, and to i would love to offer insurance again, when it becomes affordable. >> woodruff: affordability is clearly a big issue in debate over the health care replacement. but so is the question of who's covered. the republican bill would end the expansion of medicaid over time, and would phase out government coverage for millions. we visited a current medicaid recipient in shreveport, louisiana who got coverage because of the affordable care act and is worried about what may happen. >> my name is julia raye, i'm 50 years old, and i live in shreveport, louisiana. i've been unemployed for about a year now, and i will be starting a new job in a role at a non- profit, and while i was unemployed, i have relied solely on um, medicaid expansions, and for my health conditions with diabetes and seizures. i am a chemist by degree, and i've worked for the c.d.c., i've worked for e.p.a., i've worked for f.d.a. and, i never planned to not work, but then there have been situations in my life where the contractor, the job ended, and i needed insurance. there was a time when i did not have any healthcare coverage. i used two types of insulin, and i would take the needles and i would rinse them out with alcohol and then i would reuse the needles. and i remember thinking, am i getting the right dosage? obamacare allowed me to get medicine for whatever illness it was i had. and, without it, i would not be healthy enough to even have a job! medicaid has been frustrating at times, the issues are in some cases, there might not be a doctor that takes medicaid, or that situation. but make no mistakes. it is, it is a blessing to have medicaid, and to, to be medically assisted by medicaid. as i hear the news about the changes in medicaid for the future, for 2020, i am very excited about my new job. but, the job is in all essence, a contract position. at some point in time, it may be that i lo-, this job closes down. and, i find myself needing insurance. i am worried that what happens if i have no income, and i, again, need to be at a point where i've no income, and that puts me at a point where i need medicaid again. i mean, at this point, i want to say, do i take the medicine that i get now, or that i get in the future, and do i, instead of taking all my medicine, do i take two of the three pills that i'm supposed to take, and start stockpiling it so that you know, for a rainy day? you know, people have stockpiles of food for possible war. do i stockpile my medicine for in case i don't have it? if you don't think that medicaid is necessary, i went to the hospital three times in one year with sugars above 600, because they were not, i wasn't taking the right medication. if you don't think that medicaid is important, then you're signing my death sentence. if you're comfortable with that, then go right ahead. >> woodruff: we'll have more of these profiles of how people could be impacted by the new health care plan in the days to you can watch all of them on our website now at pbs.org/newshour. >> woodruff: united states military involvement in syria has deepened since president trump took office. the pentagon has authorized the deployment of 400 more troops, some of whom are already there. 500 special operations forces, sent by the obama administration are also on the ground. war planners reportedly are seeking to send an additional 1,000 american troops to syria. yesterday in tabqa, syria, american forces aided syrian rebel and kurdish forces in the taking a strategic dam and road from isis. all this comes on a very complex battlefield, and under the wary eye of syria's northern neighbor: turkey. for more on what's happening now, and what may come, i'm joined by andrew exum. he served in the obama administration until this january as deputy assistant secretary of defense for middle east policy at the pentagon. he's also a former army ranger and a contributing editor at the atlantic. and bulent aliriza. he's the director of the turkey project at the center for strategic and international studies, a washington think tank. we welcome both of you back to the program, andrew exum to you first, how much of a change is what we are seeing right now in syria from what was going on in the obama administration. >> significant in one way, significant in terms of the numbers. it is clear that the trump administration doesn't have the same reticence that the obama administration did in terms of putting more troops on the ground, especially conventional troops as opposed to special operations troops. where it is similar is what we are trying to do, it seems, is replicate the success we had with in iraq working with local forces, really enabling local forces to try to win the fight. it seems what the u.s. military is trying to do is put the same infrastructure on the ground that has proved successful in helping the iraqi army in mosul in syria to help the syrians successfully take raqqa. >> woodruff: so if the trump administration seems to be headed towards 2,000, assuming this next thousand contingent gets there, is that where the obama administration would have eventually gotten or is that not clear. >> it's a really good question. over the past 18 monthses we've steadily ramped up our commitment in terms of resources to both iraq and syria, and certainly as the fight developed in iraq we continued to put more troop there, for example, building up the kiara west airfield in presentation for the fight against mosul. could you say the obama administration might have done something similar to this. we really don't know. in some ways this is typical of the ramping up of the strategy so far. >> woodruff: bulent aliriza, do you see in as a continuation or something different. >> it is a combination as as andrew says t is a continuation in the sense that the obama administration was relying on the turks,, in the context of democratic forces. the difference is that in iraq the u.s. is relying on the iraqi army. supplemented with peshmerga forces, in this instance the they are relying on the kurds with less complications. >> woodruff: expand bulent aliriza why they are so concerned or growing concern. >> they are the guy, the white pg are fighting the syrian kurdish as an extension of the pkk which is fighting in turkey for over three decades. with the obama administration and subsequently with the trump administration, turkey tried to persuade the u.s. not to rely on the syrian kurds for this reason. and can actually look to opposition groups backed by turkey who have actually moved into northern syria with turkish packi recently and even the turkish army it seems the obama recommendation which was reviewed by the pentagon has lead the tump administration to continue with the syrian kurdish option. >> woodruff: so as far as you know, andrew exum, how does the-- how the obama administration viewed turkey's concerns, what does it look like the trurch administration, how do they see these concerns. >> my colleague sketched out right. we started meeting with the turks in the summer of 2015 to try to see if there was anyway to make use of these opposition forces that turkey had identified. the bottomline, there are too few of them and they weren't combat ready in the same way that our other partners are ready. and the turkish military was never on the table during the obama administration. although of course turkey committed its own forces into northern syria late in the day and the administration. unclear how this administration looks at it. i think they had been trying to see if there was some way they could do this without angering a nato partner in turkey. and this may be why they're putting more u.s. forces on the ground, so they don't have to provide the same type of equipment to the ypg. they may have to head too otherwise done if they had been trying to do this with fewer u.s. forces. >> woodruff: so bulent aliriza as you step back, does if look like the trump administration is making a smart move here in the way they are handling this. >> i think the primary president vacation here is to try and live up to the commitment that trump made during the campaign. to actually deal with isis as quickly as possible. and in this case, the syrian kurds offered the best option in order to get this done as soon as possible. beyond that i think there are lots of complications, frankly this is where we are. and nobody is really thinking beyond the takeover of raqqa from isil. >> woodruff: you assess it the same way. >> i do. i think the problems really began in some ways after you take raqqa because it is clear that the islamic state is going to retreat. the regime has a strong tow hold there so i think the key questions going forward is do you follow daash to dar a glur, work with the regime in russia, i think the geography gets more complicated the farther south you go. >> woodruff: and bulent aliriza, what about once isis is cleared out. is there a plan for what to do with those spaces that are vacated, that are emptied out? >> well, the syrian government under bashar assad seems to have survived. initially the administration, like turkey were committed to his ouster. with the russian backing and ukrainian backing they survived. -- iranian backing they survived. in this they emerged and began to be the problem, within syria and beyond. but it has. now even if you take raqqa, even if you take mosul across-the-boarder in iraq, unfortunately the problem posed by radical jihadists is going to continue. >> woodruff. >> i think that is right. i think that unfortunately, i think that we've already put our u.s. special operators in a very difficult position in northern syria already. you can see them refereeing between the turkish aligned forces and u.s. backed forces. i have real concerns about their ability to enable local forces to not just seize raqqa but then to hold raqqa. and what is unclear to me is what is the end game. how do we vent allly e fill trait u.s. forces out of a complicated situation in northern syria once we have defeated the islamic state. >> since the folks who are watching this, and they are wondering, okay, what are the risks that the trump administration is taking, how would you describe them? >> well, the risks in syria to the trump administration are minimal. it is the risks beyond syria posed by isil and other organizations like that. and so being with them in syria, as i said, is relatively easy. but it might actually make the deficits posed by the radical jihadist beyond syria's borders even more retractible. >> woodruff: in just a few words. >> i think what the united states will try to do after this, we figured out a way to squeeze daash from multiple directions in iraq and syria. i know military planners are thinking through what does that mean on a global scale. how do you avoid exactly the situation that my colleague is describes. >> woodruff: making it much worse elsewhere once you get rid of them, so to speak. >> exactly. >> woodruff: if that happens in syria. andrew exum, bulent aliriza, we thank you both. >> thank you. >> woodruff: president trump is not only dominating the news here in the united states. his agenda, and his style of governing, is even the subject of betting markets of all things. our economics correspondent, paul solman recently traveled to dublin to meet with ireland's most visible bookie about all things trump. it's part of our weekly series, making sense. >> reporter: so how is the trump action? >> pretty nonstop. i mean he is literally top story in the news every single night, still. >> reporter: the political prediction markets, where you can bet real money on an almost endless variety of political outcomes. well, the betting is heavier than ever these days... on donald trump. even here in ireland? >> even here in ireland. >> reporter: that's paddy power of the eponymous irish online betting site, "paddy power," a legal bookmaker which took a very visible million-dollar loss this fall when it paid off on bets for hillary clinton, an 85% favorite, to win the presidency, 20 days before donald trump won. >> we decided to pay out on clinton early, and we got that completely wrong obviously. also got brexit completely wrong. >> reporter: now we've been covering various political prediction markets as a successful example of applied economics since the 2004 bush- kerry presidential campaign, when we featured new yorker economics columnist james surowiecki on the sidewalks of new york, crowd-sourcing a guesstimate of the number of jelly beans in this jar. >> 500. >> how many did he say? >> 10,000. >> 10,000. >> reporter: as wildly divergent as the guesses were, the average was eerily close to the real number: 1350. surowiecki was touting the so- called "wisdom of crowds," the theoretical advantage of markets and their supposed collective best guesses, which we cover with the usual "stock footage." and he cited the historical accuracy of the iowa electronic markets, which have allowed political betting, for research purposes, since 1988. >> historically, the election eve forecast in this market has only been off by 1.4%, which is better than any poll. >> reporter: "better than any poll." that's been the track record of all the prediction markets pretty much forever. study them, said market expert david rothschild during last year's campaign... >> and you see something that is more accurate than any collection of pundits or statistical polling averages, and extremely well-calibrated. >> reporter: but what's remarkable is that even though prediction markets failed so spectacularly, trump bettors are flocking to them as never before. that's why i asked paddy power for a quick chat in downtown dublin. >> we've actually launched a new betting hub, purely dedicated to trump. >> reporter: a betting hub? >> yes, literally a micro site, a trump micro site. >> reporter: and so how many bets can you make on trump? >> there's 100 open bets on trump. our politics trader literally can't handle the volume, so we're hiring a trump betting expert at the moment. >> reporter: that's because when it offers a bet like "next member of the trump administration to resign/get sacked-- as of this narration record, it's jeff sessions at 2- 1-- paddy power needs an expert to set the opening odds. if they're too far away from what bettors are likely to think, paddy could lose its shirt. >> we're advertising for-- for some kid out of college hopefully, a political graduate or whatever, to become an expert on trump, all things trump. they're going to manage our trump betting. it's, it's, literally it's millions of dollars. >> reporter: what are the odds of him being impeached? not convicted, but impeached before four years, is that the bet? >> that's the main bet, the most popular one. at the moment he's six to four and that means he's about 40% likely. the odds would suggest it's 40% likely he's impeached in his first term. >> reporter: so what's an odds- on favorite at this point with regard to trump? that is more than 50% likely, according to the prediction markets, to happen? >> it's more than 50% likely that he won't see a second term, right. it's more than 50% that he's going to see, see his first term out though. that he'll get there in the end. >> reporter: power showed me the latest odds on other bets as well. two-thirds chance that he will start building the wall. >> in 2017. >> reporter: in 2017. but you need to consult the website itself for the very latest odds: on mexico funding the wall... when will sean spicer leave/get sacked as white house press secretary?"... "u.s. congress inquiry to officially declare that obama ordered a wiretap of phones in trump tower." it's the irish, like those walking past us on grafton st, making real money trump bets and presumably taking the odds seriously. but there's no reason at this point is there for me or anybody in the audience to believe these odds? >> no, absolutely not. we've been wrong, so wrong. >> reporter: so why have prediction markets failed as abysmally as they have? >> i've been thinking about this a lot because it is, it is a head-scratcher. >> reporter: but mr. power does have a theory. >> we're just behind. the world is slowly going bonkers, all around the world, because you can see the way the political structure is just changing everywhere. it's taking us a bit of time to catch up with that because we look at form. like in sports betting you look at form and what's happened before. >> reporter: is this a horse that generally wins? >> yeah, or if this team always wins at home or whatever it might be. and when you look at the form, like that's literally ripped up and thrown out the window on this occasion. >> reporter: or, with donald trump, and so many other political phenomena these days, if you'll forgive the obvious cliche, all bets are off. economics correspondent paul solman, reporting for the pbs newshour from grafton street in dublin, ireland. >> woodruff: now, how memories can shape a life. that's the lens through which a new memoir unfolds. jeffrey brown has this latest add to the newshour bookshelf from a member of our extended family. >> brown: for years elizabeth farnsworth traveled the world as a foreign correspondent for the newshour: hotspots such as vietnam, iran, iraq and latin america. >> i mean i very much wanted to be reporting where a lot was on the line. i think, you may share this, i think that's what reporters like to do and want to do and it's really important that you get the story that's the truth. >> brown: she's written about this in a new book, "a train through time." and the book is partly about people who you don't know what happened to them. and i think i want people to pay attention when other people are suffering. when people die, i think i really care that people pay attention to that. i was so lucky to get to work in a way that i could call attention. when i first reported from chile or reported from guatemala, a lot of people didn't realize what was happening. and i was so lucky to be able to say pay attention to this. >> but this is >> brown: but this is more than a story of her reporting, it's also about her childhood in kansas, and dealing with the loss of her mother when elizabeth was age nine. soon after her mother's death she took a train ride with her father on the union pacific's "portland rose" from topeka to san francisco, which becomes the spine of her new book. >> her death was a mystery. i didn't know that she really was dead. they didn't use the word, "she died." "she's gone." "we don't have her anymore." she'd been sick, but in those days i have what i call very good bad luck in that i had a wonderful father, wonderful aunts, grandparents but they didn't think to ever tell me that my mother was dying of cancer. and the fact that they didn't tell me that made me believe that she disappeared and so i looked for her from that train, and i think that that's part of solving the mystery. why did i look for her? why is that memory so vivid? >> brown: you know, we've been friends a long time, but i realized in this i didn't know how much you tend to look back at your young self, and i wondered, when you did what did you see? who was that person? does it feel like the same you? >> yes it does very much. it's interesting you should ask that, jeff. it does and i think it has partly to do with losing a parent. i think it, i think in my experience, it made you both, uh, empathetic with people who are losing something, but i also think it makes you tremendously appreciative of life because the person who was most important to you, her life was so fragile. and so i see a person who had some sadness, but who also wanted to live life to the fullest, and that pretty much is who i am too. >> brown: one of the other themes here of course is the passage of time, right? and you even refer to you as a young girl on the train, saying it does it change depending on how fast we're going? that metaphor of the train again right? the train's going so fast, what time will it be? >> will we get ahead of time? i'm sort of fascinated by time in general and i think listeners will share this: i think we all have moments when we're living in about four times at once, when something reminds us of something or when we realize we're reacting to something because it comes from that past time. >> brown: the train ride amidst great loss is the touchstone for one of her biggest concerns as a reporter-- the role of 'fixers' -- the local producers who help us do our rk, sometimes at great risk to themselves. one man in particular, fakher haider, worked with elizabeth in iraq. he was later killed while working with another news organization. >> i realized in about, it started in about 2000, before 9/11, but really after 9/11 when i spent quite a lot of time in the middle east, that the shoots we were on were far more dangerous for the cameraman and the soundman and the fixer than for me and for the producer. there are reasons for that, it has to do partly with holding a camera, which means, it looks like a gun sometimes. we had people point guns at us because they thought we had a gun. and then fixers are local people who interpret and do a lot more for us too, and we all are probably going to get helped in going back home if something bad happens. >> brown: you have somewhere to go to. >> yeah. and the fixer doesn't. i won't take the time here, but i can tell you stories of ways in which correspondents hurt fixers by not being sensitive to them, and that is not what happened with faher, people were quite sensitive with him, but he was such a good reporter and doing such great work. he did great work for us and he did great work for the new york times and he was killed because it's something, as i say in the book, he joined the ghosts that wake me up at night sometimes. >> brown: you know, we don't want to give away too much about your book, but there is an interesting blend of fact, that's all we're talking about here, and fiction. of deeply reported events and your imagination. and i wonder how you thought about that line. >> it's funny, i asked jim lehrer about it. can i do this? and he said, "as long as you tell people what the fiction is." and that's what i do in the afterward. i think any time you remember something, one can write a memoir, and i know people that have done this, where everything is researched, you don't say anything from memory, but i didn't want to do that because part of what i was trying to do was recover the imagination that created who i am now. i was very imaginative as a child, and i wanted to see what i thought about my mother's death, not what the facts were. i could've gone to try to find the medical team records, but i wanted to be in her mind, and uh, i understand that you take chances when you start. i started imagining this on the train in a certain way, which i won't reveal, and certain things happened on the train, which are a mystery, and i just went with it, and i do explain that that part isn't true. and i think that there's a reason why i did go with it and the role it plays in the book, and we'll let other people decide what they think. >> brown: and as you say, memory and imagination are closely linked. you just decided to let the linkage happen. >> i think of imagination as really a way of seeing things that you cannot see any other way. >> brown: alright, the book is "a train through time," elizabeth farnsworth, thank you very much. >> thanks, jeff. watch online at pbs.org/newshour . >> woodruff: finally another in our brief but spectacular series where we ask interesting people to describe their passions. tonight we hear from artist jive poetic. the new york-based poet will be coaching the brooklyn poetry slam finals next month. >> rule number one; always know it is time to go home, summer camp was free lunch in a park then back home. trip to manhattan then back home, no matter where you were, if those street lights came on and you was not home, there was a problem, if mama had to look for you, if community got involved a problem, and solutions never came easy we still have not solved what happened to little tasha and mama used to say be aware of emergency vehicles. police cars, sirens, screams, cries, tears, all emergency vehicles be aware of how far away they are, how fast and far close closer, how close that close far was too late their target, always made us the most almost right, always made them the most almost parents always enter their cavalier with middle finger and cuss words spoken and thrown by the dialect, always rage into flames as our bodies were built from the kiss of match and gas can because we have not forgotten, we have not forgotten carmelo stevenson was alive when them sirens came. day when a never just dropped there from gunny to sidewalk and mama used to say distraction will get you killed. pay attention to your environment, pay attention to your environme you two have instincts for a reason, use them, use them like childhood street lights they will always tell you when it is time to go home. if you think you know how your poem is going to end then you're not going to have a poem because the poem is going to want to do something else even start more on one way, so sometimes i have about it and i don't care if you know but what i'll do is i'll throw a line down type it up and i walk, i walk through whole of brooklyn. i will walk all the way if you know brooklyn ill walk from bed stuy to flatbush, i walk back to the bridge and that's the thing with living in new york city where i can say these poems out loud by myself at night and nobody thinks you're crazy the things that i say in my poems are things that i have absolutely have to say, i know that there are kids who grew up like i grew up from where i'm from and they are always aware that their voice matters that everybody is listening. i have to say because i think it matters, it matters to me hopefully it will matter to somebody else but there's a lot of systems designed to try and silence me anyway, there's no point of me surrendering my voice that's why would i want to do that surrender your voice you're far too have one. my name is jive poetic and this is my brief but spectacular take on things i have to say. >> woodruff: you can watch more brief but spectacular videos online at pbs.org/newshour/brief. on the newshour online right now, plenty of classical composers have turned to nature for inspiration, but we meet a composer who's been inspired by the national parks like yosemite and mesa verde. find that story from public media partner on our web site, pbs.org/newshour. and that's the newshour for tonight. on friday, a review of the week in politics with mark shields and david brooks. i'm judy woodruff. join us online and again here tomorrow evening. for all of us at the pbs newshour, thank you and see you soon. >> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> our tradition has been to take care of mother earth, because it's that that gives us water, gives us life. the land is here for everyone. >> and with the ongoing support of these institutions >> this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. captioning sponsored by newshour productions, llc captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org boom! hello, i'm julia child. welcome to my house. what fun we're going to have baking all kinds of incredible cakes, pies and breads right here in my own kitchen. baking with me today is master bread maker steve sullivan of berkeley, california. steve will share the techniques that help make his acme bread the toast of the san francisco bay area.

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