>> woodruff: those are just some of the stories we're covering on tonight's pbs newshour. >> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> at bae systems, our pride and >> i've been around long enough to recognize the people who are out there owning it. the ones getting involved, staying engaged. they are not afraid to question the path they're on. because the one question they never want to ask is, "how did i end up here?" i started schwab with those people. people who want to take ownership of their investments, like they do in every other aspect of their lives. >> and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... >> this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> ifill: ukraine's pro-russian president has announced a truce after a late-night meeting with the pro-european opposition. that follows tuesday's all-out battles and bloodshed in kiev that left at least 26 dead and hundreds wounded. we have a report from matt frei of independent television news. >> reporter: independence square is a busy place today humming with the solemn industry of an ant hill. last night the trade union building which served as the headquarters of the revolution was burnt down. today the wreck and its con at any times were already being recycled, as building materials for the new set of barricades. everything and anything will do, even a hairdresser's chair. mean meanwhile a poet with a keen eye on a career opportunity mounts the barricades to recite his latest ballad. but if all this looks like epic set for a revolutionary nostalgia film, don't be fooled. on the other side of wall of smoke the riot police don't much care for poetry. kiev has been mainly quiet today, licking its wounds but the unrest is spreading across the nation. this was in western ukraine, demonstrators venting their rage on a government building. suddenly there's automatic gunfire. a protester is shot, apparently in the head. we have no idea if the woman survived or who was shooting but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the unrest is getting more chaotic and that violence is being used by both sides and that includes live ammunition for first time in this crisis. last night in kiev the police finally used armored vehicles to ram the barricades. the riot police emerged singed from the burnt out wreckage. they too have suffered casualties but not nearly as many as the protesters. in western ukraine, always a hotbed of anti-russian and anti- government sentiment, protesters have gone one step further and even declared their independence. with his country and his authority disintegrating around him, president yanyukovich went on prime time television to denounce the protesters as terrorists and to accuse the opposition leaders of attempting to stage a coup. the front line on independence square right in the center of kiev has never looked this chaotic and messy. and the real question especially after all the deaths last night is whether this could now actually become a civil war. so much in this country is divided and that includes the orthodox church. the bells of st. michaels cathedral, one of ukraine's most beautiful and important, are frantic in support of revolution. the church itself has been transformed. st. michaels in kiev now a field hospital for the revolution. think church turned e.r. the floor has become one giant hospital bed. >> reporter: outside independence square burns once again. the stakes never higher, the outcome never clearer. the world more worried that what happens in kiev will not stay in kiev. >> ifill: the violence drew widespread condemnation from world leaders, and threats of sanctions. president obama spoke in toluca, mexico, at a summit with the presidents of mexico and canada. >> we expect the ukranian government to show restraint, to not resort to violence in dealing with peaceful protesters. we've said that we also expect peaceful protesters to remain peaceful. and we'll be monitoring very carefully the situation recognizing that along with our european partners and the international community there will be consequences if people step over the line. >> ifill: russian president vladimir putin spoke by phone overnight with yanukovych. the kremlin said both men view yesterday's events as an attempted coup. in venezuela, opposition leader leopoldo lopez faced a first appearance in court on charges of inciting violence. lopez has become the face of demonstrations calling for the ouster of socialist president nicolas maduro. he was taken into custody yesterday. we'll have a full report on the situation in venezuela, later in the program. a court in thailand has ordered the government there to stop using force against the opposition. that follows clashes between riot police and protesters that killed five people yesterday. thousands of demonstrators rallied today outside the temporary office of embattled prime minister yingluck shinawatra. they waved flags and shouted slogans demanding her resignation. at the winter olympics, a protest against russian president putin drew a violent response today in sochi. cossack militiamen with horsewhips beat and manhandled members of the punk group pussy riot as they tried to perform. at least one person was bloodied, but police made no arrests. later, the performance artists did manage to stage a performance, and insisted they won't be silenced. >> in the countries of europe and the united states there's no real understanding of what is going on here in our country. there's no security for those who expressed the civil polit call position. these people might be beaten, some are raped at police stations, killed or put into jail regularly. our goal is to tell the truth about that as loud as we can. >> ifill: as for the day's results, if you plan to watch today's competition later, you might want to tune out for a moment. american skier ted ligety took the men's giant slalom. the first american male to win two olympic golds in alpine skiing. american teams also won two medals, the silver and bronze, in women's bobsledding. and in men's hockey, the u.s. beat the czech republic to advance to the semifinals friday, against canada. russia was knocked out of medal contention with a loss to finland. a new warning has gone out to airlines, over possible bombs in shoes. the department of homeland security issued the alert, but declined today to give details of the threat. it's unclear if this is related to earlier warnings about explosives hidden in toothpaste or liquids on flights to russia. the keystone oil pipeline has run into new trouble. a state judge in nebraska today rejected a law that lets the governor condemn and claim land for the pipeline. instead, a state agency will have to decide on a route. the pipeline still needs federal approval as well. it's meant to carry oil from canada to refineries in texas. the federal communications commission will draw up new rules for an open internet. a federal appeals court struck down a previous version. the rules were designed to ensure that broadband providers don't discriminate or block content on the web. today, the f.c.c. opted to try again, instead of appealing the court decision. a major tech acquisition is in the works. facebook has announced it will buy the mobile messaging service "whats-app" for up to $19 billion in cash and stock. and on wall street today, the dow jones industrial average lost nearly 90 points to close at 16,040. the nasdaq fell almost 35 points to close just below 4,238. still to come on the newshour: new ammunition in the fight over boosting the minimum wage; political turmoil in venezuela; the backlog in getting visas to afghans assisting u.s. forces; how an oil boom is affecting the air over texas; plus, whatever became of the arab spring? >> woodruff: the congressional budget office, by definition, is considered a non-partisan agency. but the report it released yesterday about the effects of raising the minimum wage was seized upon by both sides of the debate. among its findings: if the minimum wage were raised to $10.10 an hour, it could eliminate half a million jobs. but, it would also lift 900,000 families out of poverty and raise incomes for more than 16 million people. the report noted there could be significant variation in the numbers. we join the debate with thea lee, the deputy chief of staff at the a.f.l.-c.i.o. and david neumark, an economist at the university of california, irvine, who's done extensive work on this subject. and we welcome you both to the program. thea lee, to you first, what is your main take away here, on the one hand the congressional budget office is saying yes, it lifts people out of poverty it will raise income but it has the potential to eliminate half a million jobs. >> there were some good findings out of the cbo study. as you said 16.5 million getting a pay increase which is long overdue. and about 900,000 coming out of poverty. the most controversial finding the cbo study was up to half a million people could lose their jobs because of hike in the men mum wage, if you look carefully at the cbo study they haven't actually done new research and it was biased in the sense that they gave a lot more weight to studies that might have a negative employment impact. and less weight to a vast consensus among economists right now that, in fact, raising the men mum wage will have little or no adverse job impact. and i think those studies have been more of the newer studies, more careful studies that have been done and that is where a lot of the economics profession is right now. >> professor neumark, what is your take away on what the cbo said and how do you respond to what thea lee said that they really didn't take into account consensus of economists. she said that there won't be this affect on jobs. >> well, let me take the first question in-- let me take the question in reverse order. it's simply a misstatement of the research evidence to say that most studies point to no effects of minimum wages on unemployment to. say there is a consensus among economists now, i don't know where that comes from. there is, you know, there is survey, i did an extensive survey of minimum wage studies back in 2007 with co-author william washer at the federal reserve board. we found that while there is definitely a dispute here nest of the evidence and a higher percentage of the studies we think are better, point to neglect any-- negative minimum wage effects there are a few recent studies that find the opposite that is not new there have always been a few that find it the contrary. there has been a conservative effort by the authors of those studies and people in favor of raising the minimum wage to make it seem as if that's what we know now and that is the consensus but that's simply not the weight of the evidence. i really welcome the cbo study because i think what it does is puts the discussion back where it should be. there are costs to raise the minimum wage there are some benefits to raise the minimum wage. we should be having an informed policy discussion about what those costs and benefits are and how we trade them off against each other. the discussion arguing pass if there is no cost, no effects on the minimum wage, obviously there is no korx it's all benefits, you might as well keep doing and higher and higher. i think the cbo study puts us back where we need to be saying there is some job loss. and let's think about that cost relative to the benefits. >> woodruff: thea lee works pitting studies against studies, how do you respond to the point that the professor just made that it is important to acknowledge that yes, there may be some benefits, but there are also some trade-offs. >> well, even in the cbo study, even if you take the cbo study at face value, it talks about a $31 billion increase in income for low-wage workers. and these are folks who have been working hard, people who are playing by the rules, who are productive who are going to work every day an can't lift their families out of poverty. so i think this study goes to something very important. this is the hot topic right now. the minimum wage, raising the minimum wage is incredibly popular. it would be good for the economy. and in fact it's good for a lot of businesses. and we're starting to see that even businesses, the gap just announced today it is going to voluntarily raise wages for its workers. have found that some so of the benefits of a higher minimum wage that there is higher productivity. there is lower turnover, lower add senteeism, workers are healthier, happier, they stay in the job longer. those are allological important offsetting impacts that need to be taken into account. that's why i think the new economic research which isn't about theories, it's not about drawing a supply and demand kufb on a blackboard, but it is about looking at historical, real life situations where you have two states or two counties that are next door to each other. one raises the minimum wage and one doesn't. and in those carefully controlled studies, dow not find that there is a negative job impact from raising the minimum wage. >> david neumark, you can respond to that. but even setting that aside, what about the positive that the cbo found, that poverty would be reduced, that millions of people would end up with higher income. the point that ms. lee just made that people would have more disposable income. >> right, so very briefly, the studies i was referring to are not theory, they are studies of imperial-- empirical evidence. so we can talk about the research and what is good and bad but let's not mischaracterize the research record. why are we having this defwhat first place. we're having this debate in the first place because inequality has widened a lot and many people feel and i rank myself among them, that in a country as rich as ours the minimally expanded, should probably be higher than it is. so that's the goal. how do we raise incomes of low income families. the question is what is the best way to do it. the minimum wage is generally viewed as not a very good way to achieve that goal for one simple reason. minimum wages don't target poor and low income families very well. many, many families that are pore have no workers, okay. so the minimum wage does little or nothing for them. an many minimum wage workers are nonpoor families. we have an earned income tax credit. perhaps it should be more generous than it is. the earned income tax credit essentially adds on to your labor market earnings if you are in a low income family. and it adds on more if you have children to give those families more help. now some people don't like that for reasons we don't have time to get into here. but i don't think anyone disagrees. people on both sides of the debate, that that is a much better and more effective and efficient way to put money in the hands of low income families. so when the cbo says -- >> i was going to say i want-- we only have a little bit of time left, thea lee, what about this, the point he's making which has been made elsewhere, that there are better ways to get money into the hands of those who most need it. >> i don't think we need to choose between the earned income tax credit which is a good program and raising the minimum wage. the truth is that if you are working for a living you should not be in poverty. i think what we need to do is give not just low-wage workers, poor workers but middle income workers a raise as well. because the key factor in our economy today is that millions and millions of workers have been working harder, they're more productive, educated than they have ever been and they haven't had a raise in dekids. i think raising the minimum wage is one important way of lifting up the floor for all of those worker. and i think it should be a top priority for the congress and the country. >> professor, just a brief response. >> well, i think that is, you know, that's a sentiment. we wish low income people would earn more. but it's not as simple as that. if we could wave our wand and they would earn higher wages i would say that sounds like a great policy there are trade-offs. and this study put its us back to seriously considering those trade-offs. >> professor david neumark, we thank boughth both it say tough debate. we'll continue to look at it thank you. >> thank you. >> ifill: a month of protests reached a boiling point this week in economically strapped venezuela. at the center of the uproar is a charismatic leader seeking to oust the current government. >> ifill: demonstrators burned trash, chanted and made noise any way they could, outside a caracas court where a top opposition leader faced criminal charges. >> ifill: leopoldo lopez is accused of fomenting protest over a tumultuous three weeks in venezuela. the harvard-trained economist surrendered to police yesterday, after imploring supporters to keep up the pressure on socialist president nicholas maduro. >> ( translated ): every venezuelan who wants change, gather ourselves, organize ourselves and hold non-violent protests. i swear to you we will overcome and very soon we will have a free and democratic venezuela. >> ifill: the protesters have denounced maduro's stewardship of the oil-rich venezuelan economy. also at issue: rampant crime, controls on media, and food shortages. five people have died in the last week as protests turned violent, a turn many blame on so-called colectivos, a paramilitary citizens' militia allied to the maduro government. >> ( translated ): we cannot support maduro, he's a bad man. he's worse than chavez. there are no medicines, there's nothing in this country. for how long are we going to continue to suffer in this country? >> ifill: maduro, in turn, has minced no words in denouncing the protests. >> ( translated ): i have been personally overseeing the operations so that i can guarantee peace in the face of the fascists gathering today with their armed gangs, with their trained groups, so that there would be peace. >> reporter: maduro was elected last april by a razor-thin margin. he'd been vice-president for the late hugo chavez, who feuded with successive american presidents and accused the u.s. of orchestrating a 2002 coup maduro has leveled the same chargethis time. on monday, venezuela's foreign minister ordered three american diplomats to leave the country. it's been four years since the u.s. posted an ambassador there. the white house rejected claims the u.s. is promoting unrest. >> ifill: for now, a tense calm prevails in caracas, as both sides wait for whatever comes next. >> ifill: for more on what might come next, i'm joined by carl meacham, director of the americas program at the center for strategic and international studies. >> counterprotests, leadership would be leadership what is really behind all of this right now. >> it's been ten years of mismanagement with the economy. it's been ten years of putting opinions of opposition leader to the side, doing away with dissent. it's been ten years of a poor economy. and you see this all now coming and sfo balling to these events that we've seen. let's remember this has been probably, it's been a year since mr. maduro was elected. some people say that he wonning some say he had didn't win, to office. and he is no hugo chavez in his ability to get folks there his coalition and people in the middle to follow his policies so right now what you have is this snowballing affect of a poor economy, criminality and people are just sort of scared. >> venezuela is this oil rich nation, how did it get to the point where it is at 56% inflation? >> well, again, it's the use of a lot of the money that they've had for years and years for activities that have to do with an ideology and movement, the bolivaian movement that promotings a certain kind of government, welfare state that's very, very large. on the other hand they're trying to export this revolution around the world in places like central america, in places like the caribbean, so some of these funds that should have been used to improve infrastructure, education in venezuela have been spread so thin, and to help kouba which is another issue, have been spread so thin but they are not able to dot jobs they're supposed to do in the country. >> how did lee boldo lopez become the face for this. >> it's an interesting situation. he's been part of the swag for some time. it is him. it is maria. . >> the one who almost beat maduro. >> correct. he did some something. he backed up his words with action. what you say yesterday and it is emotional for venezuela. they actually made the sacrifice-- sacrifice, he turned himself in even though they are trumped up charges, he turned himself in. this signals a new phase in this whole discussion. >> ifill: does the new phase take us toward or away from the potential of a coup. >> the new phase is a building block for substantive change. i don't think there's a coup in the cards right now. i think that if anything this really demonstrates what an opposition could do as they stuck by their word. and you saw him yesterday turn himself in. the issues that are still outstanding are pretty big. what is the military going to do. it's unlickly that the military is going to turn its weapons, its arms on the people. it's more likely that they would have issues with a leadership that asks them to do that, to take up arms against venezuela arnes, those are questions that still are not answered yet. >> where does maduro stand in this, is he popular. it didn't look that way from the people they saw speaking in the streets. does he have any relationship at all with lopez? >> not with lopez. he was work on the fumes or the tailwinds that mr. chavez had left him. right now he doesn't have that any more. and we're left to rate him on his deeds which in these last ten months to a year have been few. >> you mentioned cuba but is there a role in reaching a resolution here for any of the other neighboring nations around venezuela to step up, to run interference for this and try to find some middle ground. >> it has been surprising that more countries in the region haven't stepped up to call out injustices that have gone on. there have been timid statements from the other countries in the region and the organization of american states with regards to this issue. >> why is that. >> they haven't called, well, you know, it's not really popular to go after or to call out a leader in the regionment but some of these actions that are happening are so egregious that you wonder why other country, talking about latin america, talking about the place in the world that talks about democracy, that talks about representing minority, mean or the viewpoints. and these folks aren't sort of coming together and speaking out about what is happening in venezuela. >> and this is something the u.s. keeps its distance from. >> yes, because it's afraid that they're going to use the united states as a target to say hey, the united states is orchestrating this when it's not clearly. >> that's really one of the issues. so the united states i think is in a unique situation now where it can sort of channel a lot of what's going on. and hopefully it does. >> carl meacham, the director of the merck's program at the centre for strategic and international studies, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> woodruff: as the u.s. military prepares to withdraw from afghanistan, the lives of thousands of afghan citizens who work for the americans are being threatened by insurgents. but getting out of the country to safety in the states has been a long and difficult process. the newshour's p.j. tobia has our story. >> reporter: for seven years he has worked dangerous missions for the u.s. military in afghanistan. >> when i get hired i working with the adp police, mentors it, which -- >> his work as a translator brought threats, by the same taliban insurgents he helps u.s. forces hunt down. >> i feel danger. every day, every hour. maybe one day or one hour or-- 1 week they are going to kill me. >> he applied for a special immigration nearly two years ago paying for documents and medical examinations himself. >> 18 months that i'm waiting for my visa i have-- i have to spend a lot of money, like i spent $2,000 because of my daughter, and my wife. >> the visa would allow him and his family to move to the u.s. if only it would come. >> in 202009 they passed the congress ep accept act, it increased the number of visas so afghans like him could come to the united states but there's a problem. congress expected the state department which overcease the program to approve many more visas in much less time. >> senator ben carden helped write the law. >> they were there as part of our war effort. and now they're at great risk. we have a responsibility for them to find a safe place for them to live. if they want to live in the united states, they should be able to live here. >> only around 23,000-- 2,000 of the u.s.'s afghan employees have received special visas since 2007, the year the precursor to the current program dwarntion that is less than 25% of the visas available by law. though congress allowed for 1500 visas annually, the state department has never come close to issuing that many. >> jarrett is a deputy special representative for afghanistan and pakistan at the state department. he blames some of the delays on the applicants themselves. >> how big is the entire backlog. >> it not a backlog, there is a pipeline, the pipeline has about 8,000 people in it. a lot of those people are actually maybe not quite half them are controlled their own timing, essentially some they've started the application or perhaps they've gotten through the first step but they need to finish their own paperwork before we can take the next step with them. so that's not exactly a backlog it is afghans who have started the process and at a certain point have either slowed down or decided not continue. >> despite the long wait for most of the 8,000 afghans a pying for visas, some do make it to the u.s. one landed in char lotsville, virginia with his wife and 18 month old daughter. he spent seven years as a translator for the u.s. military in northern afghanistan. >> the day that i found a message from u.s. embassy that my visa is prepared and come to pick it up, i am very happy. and we know that we are going to have a new life and we going to have-- we going to be safe. >> his application process took four years. >> i used to send them letters, e-mails, i never know what the situation is. but the response was always the same. just wait. >> was it frustrating. >> of course, if your life is in danger, you don't know if you are going to get killed by somebody, of course that is frustrating. >> it has been a disastrous program. >> kirk johnson worked for the u.s. agency for international development in fallujah, iraq. when his iraqi colleagues started getting asass natured he started an organization to help them plea to the u.s. >> these are the good guys. and they're being hunted by the bad guys and we need to protect the good guys. so five years ago, six years ago we had this debate as a nation and we said yes, we're going to open our doors to you. and all of us have turned our backs on the implementation of that process. >> why had such a low number. even with the tremendous number of visas you have given out at the end of to 13, it's still not a big chunk of the total visas that congressional kated. was's the holdup? >> well, this is a complicated program to set up. for one thing it means setting up actually having immigrant visas issued it in afghanistan which we didn't do at all until 2011. and it's also a complicated set of factors that we have to balance in each of the individual applicant's cases. and so the important thing is that we've been learning our lessons over time. we've been remind-- refining and improving the system and at this point i think the system is working well. >> there are still men and women who have been waiting a long time after giving-- they say their lives are threatened every minute, every day, their family's lives are threatened. if one of those men or women were threatened what would you say to him or her. >> obviously which say thank you. because every one of us who is involved in this process cares very intensely about making sure that the afghans the eye rangies who we worked w the people who are now facing a threat, get the visas that they deserve. we understand our moral and legal obligation to our chretion and former colleagues. >> he admits that there were problems with the program. but says that the state department has added staff to clear bottlenecks in the process. >> we have really improved the system over the course of the last year. so i believe that we are going to see fewer and fewer of these cases of people who have to wait a very long time to get an answer to their application. >> the other thing which say, and i say this to our afghan colleagues and to the american people, is that we also have obligation, real obligations, moral obligations to do a thorough review of each of these applications and make sure that there is no threat posed to the united states by one of the applicants. >> in the last four months of 2013, the state department issued nearly 500 special immigrant visas to afghan employees. that's nearly as many visas as were issued in the last four years combined. >> supporters of visa applicants aren't impressed. >> things are getting noisier in washington and wonders be, when the state department and homeland security start getting embarrassed in the media, they start giving out visas more quickly. it's kind of crazy how it works but if that media attention, if an when it dies out which it surely will because there are other crises and other problems in the world, those numbers will drop back down again. >> it is actually not the case that the hue and cry as you called it led to fundamental changes in the system what is the case is that we've learned a lot of lessons. we start add plying those lessons very well about march of last year. and you're seeing that now in the end numbers of issued visas. >> johnson an other as caused the state department of rejecting more and more visa applicants not because they don't qualify for the program but as a means to clear the considerable backlog. >> it's a charge that jarrett denies. >> it's absolutely not true that we use rejections as a way to clear the backlog it is certainly true that some people who apply for the special immigrant visa program are not eligible for it. so for example we found over the last year or so that about 20% of applicants either aren't or don't-- weren't originally able to present documentation to prove that they worked for the united states government for a year, or that they weren't fired for cause which would indicate that they didn't provide service which is another part of the law. >> for he and his family, patience paid off. >> my daughter, i want her in the future to continue on education in the united states of america. i'm very happy she is not in the war in afghanistan and we were able to get her here in the united states. >> meanwhile,-- he worried that the wait could kill him. >> our only hope is a u.s. visa because we will get killed one day because of working with the u.s. army. >> on-line you can see a visual breakdown of the number of visas granted, compared to the number of slots the u.s. had available over the last seven years. plus, meet more afghans who are in danger and can't get visas, that's on our homepage. >> woodruff: now, as shale natural gas fracking booms in texas, there are new questions about its possible connection with air quality and health problems. that's the focus of a new report jointly done by the center for public integrity, inside climate news, and the weather channel. it specifically looked at drilling in a huge area known as the eagle ford shale play, where as you can see, the oil wells are in green dots, gas wells in red. it examined almost 300 health complaints in the region potentially linked to fracking. the industry is disputing the report. jim morris is one of the journalists who worked on it for the center of public ingegrity. welcome to the program. >> thank you. >> a little bit of background. how much drilling of this kind is going on in this south texas area and why did you decide to look at the air quality issue. >> there are about 8,000 wells that have already been drilled in the eagleford shale which 20,000 square miles, another 5,000 or so have been permitted orion line. we chose to look at the eagle ford specifically because it has not been part of the national conversation on fracking. and we looked at air because so much focus has been put understandably on contaminated water that we felt it was time to look at air pollution. >> woodruff: what were your main findings. >> the main findings were that there are all manner of toxic chemicals associated with oil & gas production that appear to be making people sick. benzene which can cause cancer, sulfur dioxide which causes severe lung problems, hydrogen sulfide which can cause a variety of chronic conditions and also it can be lethal in high enough doses. all this comes out during drilling, processing, even comes out of pipelines. >> woodruff: so you-- it is emittedded and you say it can cause problems s it causing problems. >> well, we looked at, first of all, not enough study has been done and not enough monitoring has been done, i can company back toment that but we looked at nearly 300 complaints filed by residents of the eagle ford shale with the state of texas. and the vast majority of those had to do with health problems that appear to be related to air emission, nausea, chronic headaches, nosebleeds, severe asthma attacks. those symptoms are consistent with symptoms we've seen from other shale drilling areas, somewhat older plays as in pennsylvania, for example,. >> woodruff: so is there a proven connection between the chemicals that you are describing and what tease people are complaining about? >> well, yeah, the science certainly shows that a number of these chemicals cause the sorts of conditions these people are complaining about. if you are talking about the relationship between benzene and lieu keep ya, obviously that's not something will you see for many, many years. and again not enough study has been done and not enough monitoring of the air is being done by the state of texas. >> let mow just read to you what the industry is saying back as we reported a moment ago. they're rejecting this. this is from the independent petroleum association of america. they say in part, quote, after 8 months of research, the best this team could come up with was a rehash of what some anti-fracking activists claimed last year. and a couple of old regulatory memos which they completely misread. now that's just part of what they say. >> uh-huh. the industry wasn't very happy that we were down there. and in fact the industry, neither the industry nor the regulatory agency in texas which is the texas commission on environmental quality would sit down with us. in austin or talk to us in the field when we were down in the eagle ford. we made eight trips down there. so i would dispute his characterization. and i would say that we looked at permits, very complex stacks of paper on air permits, for example. did the numbers, ran all this by experts, by scientific experts, by some of the state's own permitting engineers. so to say this is some sort of a rehash of anti-fracking propaganda is just silly. >> would they go on to say, they say what the report largely ignored is that tens of thousands of families in the eagleford is in their words living better lives because of oil & gas development. >> you know, i don't know that they could necessarily back that up. i mean we did report, for example, that the tax base in concerns county texas which is the sort of focal point of our reporting increased. we quoted the county judge who said this is the greatest things that's ever happened to her county is so we certainly acknowledge that there are economic benefits. but our focus was the environment and specifically air pollution. >> just quickly, finally the other thing they say is that the state regulators are now in the process of changing the rules to deal with health concerns. and they're saying that they have already responded to complaints, that the industry is responding. >> well, let me-- i don't know how the industry has responded. let me tell you briefly how the state has responded. of the 300 complaints they found 164 violations, only two two fines were levied for those 164 violations. >> where do you go from here with it? >> we're going to be following it up aggressively >> all right, jim morris with the center for public integrity, we thank you. >> thank you. >> ifill: finally tonight, since 2011, the middle east has seen seasons of discontent, promise and renewed upheaval. the arab spring bloomed in some places and faded in others. jeffrey brown looks at the mixed product of these last years. >> brown: it was just over three years ago that demonstrations engulfed tunisia, inspired by a street vendor who set himself ablaze to protest corruption and intimidation. in the process, he ignited a revolution across the region. but the uprisings and protests from morocco to oman, what came to be known as the arab spring, have yielded decidedly mixed results. the best may be in tunisia itself, where secretary of state john kerry visited yesterday, praising the nation's progress. >> i want to congratulate prime minister jomaa and the tunisian people on the very difficult road they have navigated and the successful way in which they have moved through a very difficult transition to democratic rule. >> brown: the transition began when the ouster of president zine el-abidine ben ali gave way to more unrest as islamists and secular groups competed for influence. the economy worsened, assassinations of two powerful left-wing politicians eroded trust between parties. and attacks by an al-qaeda- linked faction stoked fears of a takeover by radical islamists. despite it all, last month the national assembly approved a new constitution now being hailed as one of the arab world's most progressive. >> ( translated ): our people succeeded in making a peaceful revolution that enlightened the world. we succeeded to avoid a civil war between us. but we achieved consensus. >> brown: there's been no such consensus in libya, tunisia's neighbor to the east. two well-armed militias have demanded the interim parliament resign. today, they extended their deadline to friday. the prime minister dismissed the ultimatum. >> ( translated ): from the time that the armed groups issued this declaration, i have found in most of the people the will of understanding, enthusiasm and preparedness to defuse this crisis and to contain this matter. >> brown: just this monday tripoli marked three years since a "day of rage" against long- time dictator moammar ghaddafi. the revolt, aided by n.a.t.o. air strikes, ultimately toppled gaddafi's government and ended in his death at the hands of rebels. in egypt, the revolution that forced out president hosni mubarak has also given way to new upheavals. the muslim brotherhood took power in elections after mubarak's ouster. but last year, demonstrators rose up against islamist president mohammed morsi and a military coup removed him from office. now, it appears army chief abdel fatteh al-sisi will run for president this year. even as a crackdown expands to include secular groups. >> ( translated ): what is happening now is a counter- revolution against the january revolution, the pure revolution which the egyptian people united to fight for freedom, dignity >> brown: islamist militants continue their own fight, using violence, including sunday's bombing of a tourist bus in the sinai peninsula. and egyptians, libyans and others need only look to syria for the worst-case scenario, all-out civil war. by one estimate more than 140,000 syrians have died, and millions more have been displaced, since the uprising there began in march 2011. >> brown: we thought we'd turn again to three people who've watched events with us since they first began to unfold three years ago. mary-jane deeb, chief of the african and middle eastern division at the library of congress. the views she expresses here are her own. hisham melhem is the washington bureau chief of al-arabiya news channel. and tarek masoud is assistant professor of public policy at harvard university. he specializes in islamic political parties and their role in governance. let me start where you. every country is different, of course. we can't go through all those differences. but what can be said so far about the factors that go into success or failure? well, it's a great question, jeff. i mean i think one thing is that we've known for a long time that there are certain prerequisites to getting democracy. are you much more likely to get and keep democracy is if your country is pretty well economically developed. if you have a highly literate population. and if you look across the middle east, those kinds of prerequisites are lacking. so it's not surprising to me that tunesia seems to be the only bright spot. and it really is on a bright spot in comparison to the grim stories in egypt and libya and syria an elsewhere but it's a bright spot, i think, because compared to those other countries, it was just much more developed it has a much more modern, literate population, much more educated population. and i think that's a big part of the story here. >> all right so, let me ask you the same question, to what degree could one translate what is perhaps a success story in tunesia so far to other places? >> well, you know, each country is different. and that's the basis of the differences in the outcomes of at rab spring. tunesia had a constitution, 1861. >> 1861. >> 1861. and so while lib ya, you know, is relatively a new state f you want n modern terms. and egypt on the other hand has certain basically institutions such as the army. which plays a very important role. therefore each model is different. and is the organization of the state and the society that has affected the outcome of the arab spring in each case. >> so in a place like libya we see there are some tentative moves towards creating a constitution after a lot of-- egypt, we talked about what is going on. how do you, do you see some general theme here? >> if you look at these homogenous societies, a country like ton yaes would reform traditions going back to the 19th century. in fact, just as an anecdote, ton yaes is the first country to outlaw slavery in the muslim world and outlawed slavery 17 years before the emancipation proclamation in 1863. after the battle of antitum. there is a tradition of secularism in tunesia. women are highly educated compared to women in the rest of africa and the arab world. ton yaes is a small country, homogenous country and most importantly ton yaes had a small armed forces. this armed forces never had a tradition of shooting at civilians in the street. but what the iraqi military, and algerian military that accounts for the development of tunesia. tunesia is the only country that will make that transig. egypt was closed because egypt is a homogenous state, mainly. but the islamist in egypt and the fact that you will have strong democratic movement, tradition, led egypt to this state. so on the one hand you have the persistence of the old order and the lack of democratic forces that believe in -- >> so another big question here so, therefore do you look at, we've heard talk about the economy, about the rise of islamist movements. we haven't even brought in syria yet. i raised it in our opening segment. what do you look at most, to help you determine what we might be talking about next year at this time, or five years from this time? >> oh, well, you know, it's hard to know. i mean so there are two different approaches that we could take to kind of devine the futures. the one approach is the really pessimistic approach that i shared with you. just look at their level of economic development. we know from look at all kinds of countries across history that the odds are not really good for any of these arab countries in terms of their ability to achieve democracy. but we could also, i mean we could take maybe a more hopeful view and look at the actual players in each country and think about well, of the players, are they clever enough or smart enough or do they have the political will to kind of overcome some of these obstacles and do the necessary compromise that will get them to some kind of more inclusive democratic order. and again so when you look at all of these places, these things just don't seem to be present so in egypt, you know t seems to me that the best predictor of egypt's future is egypt's past. egypt from 1952 has basically been governed by the military. and that seems to be what has is happening again. if you look at say a country like libya, when qaddafi was in charge basically what tried to do was dismantle any semblance of a state and just bribe the different troibs that lived in libya with oil money and sure enough the biggest problem that you have in libya right now is that qaddafi legacy of having no state. and so you don't really have much of an army. you don't have much of the apparatus of a nationally yun find state so that's what we would expect to be the problem in the future. and you know, yemen, for example, similar kind of story. so really if you look at tunesia and why is tunesia such a hopeful story. if you look at the last 50 years, particularly during the-- dictator who preceded ben ali, there is a liberallizing modernizing auto crat it is not surprising that country is going in a slightly more liberal and modern direction. i look to the past. >> so you can pick up on that but i also want you to bring in syria. because how much is that, we look at it all the time on its own. how much of it is an outlie tore what's happened in at rab spring or how much of it is really almost defining what will come? >> you know, three years ago when we were looking at what was happening in the region, i remember saying it's a house of cards. it begins in one country and then it moves to the next. >> but we were talking about it in a positive way then. >> we were. we were looking at those who were actually rebelling. those who were asking for change and reform. and we were saying the young people in the city of cairo have learned from this. people in tunesia, and so did the libyans. but what we didn't point out was that the governments were learning also from the experience of the others. so tunesia and the ton esian president said easily, we want egypt to be longer, and then you see the resistance building up in libya then even more resistance in syria. and the stakes are even higher in syria than elsewhere where really the focus was one individual, one leader f you want. in syria it is the fate of two million people, and so the stakes are some of higher in syria than they are in the other countries, that compromise is perhaps more difficult. >> and not only did governments learn but islamic movements, militants learned as well. >> not all of them. the movement in ton yaes alone from the egyptian experience, the pem of egypt did and what the egyptian military did, that is one reason why there were more, more willing to accommodate the secular forces in unton questionsia. >> just in our last minute, so what are you looking at. >> what i am looking at is at rab east going to be engulfed in a long nightmare that will last for years. syria. >> years. >> years and probably decades. syria is no longer a civil war t say regional war where islamists, from all the way to central asia to iraq, to lebanon, to iran definitely are fighting and entrenched islamist, sunni dominated now force. but supported by sunni governments it is not an exaggeration to talk about one continuum front, sectarian front that is bloody from the gulf to the eastern -- from iraq to syria, to lebanon. and the whole arab world and arab east mostly, is involved in this war. the war in syria is to the going to remain in syria. it is going to threaten southern europe this is not a landlocked country like afghanistan. the consequence of the war in afghanistan, when the west left afghan to their own devices t is no longer a moral issue, it is a strategic issue for the united states to do something. >> all right, very sobering indeed. thank you all three once again. >> woodruff: again, the major developments of the day. the president of ukraine announced a truce with opposition forces, a day after battles between police and protesters left at least 26 people dead. and president obama and european leaders warned ukraine could face consequences, in the form of sanctions, if there's more bloodshed. a correction before we go: in the news summary, we referred to stephen harper as the president of canada. he is, of course, the prime minister. >> ifill: on the newshour online right now, law enforcement agents and doctors along the u.s.-mexico border are noticing a new trend in the illegal drug trade: cheap prescription medication smuggled north across the mexican border. it's a growing practice in texas, where the number of uninsured americans is high. read the report from the fronteras desk, a public media partner. all that and more is on our web site, newshour.pbs.org. >> woodruff: and that's the newshour for tonight. on thursday, we'll look at n.a.f.t.a. at 20, and how the landmark trade agreement has changed the u.s. economy. i'm judy woodruff >> ifill: and i'm gwen ifill, we'll see you on-line and again here tomorrow evening. for all of us here at the pbs newshour, thank you and good night. >> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: ♪ ♪ moving our economy for 160 years. bnsf, the engine that connects us. >> at bae systems, our pride and dedication show in everything we do; from electronics systems to intelligence analysis and cyber- operations; from combat vehicles and weapons to the maintenance and modernization of ships, aircraft, and critical infrastructure. knowing our work makes a difference inspires us everyday. that's bae systems. that's inspired work. >> and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... >> this program was made 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