do they want to be destructive or constructive? >> reporter: david fahrenholt of the "washington post" has the details of a report showing the obama administration underestimated the size of the b.p. spill. >> brown: margaret warner talks to a european union official about the health and environmental risks of the toxic red sludge in hungary that has now reached the danube river. >> suarez: from pakistan's swat valley-- jonathan miller of independent television news reports on schools destroyed by the floods and by the taliban. >> brown: and we have conversation with supreme court justice stephen breyer about the court and his new book, "how democracy works." that's all ahead on tonight's "newshour." major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: and by the alfred p. sloan foundation. supporting science, technology, and improved economic performance and financial literacy in the 21st century. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> brown: the war in afghanistan went on unabated today, as another anniversary passed. at the same time, afghan leaders talked of trying to end the conflict. october 7, 2001-- u.s. warships fired cruise missiles in the opening hours of the invasion of afghanistan. after nine years of fighting, at varying levels of intensity,x the war against the taliban has again heated up. today, nato reported air strikes and ground assaults killed dozens of insurgents. two nato soldiers also were killed. at the same time, talks to negotiate an end to the war, took center stage in kabul. president hamid karzai convened a new peace council to reconcile with militants who renounce violence. >> ( translated ): to the opposition forces, taliban, or any other citizen of this country who are inside or outside the country and are willing to serve the country, who want peace, once again i call upon them to use this opportunity and welcome this initiative. >> brown: the taliban issued a statement of its own. it claimed it now controls 75% of afghanistan and urged the u.s. and its allies to withdraw. the group said: "the strongholds of jihad and resistance against the invading americans and their allies are as strong as ever." but at the pentagon this week, spokesman geoff morrell insisted the war has tilted against the taliban. >> those who have remained and dug in and who are determined to fight are feeling enormous pressure. and the operational tempo that we're now undertaking is extraordinarily fast. it's-- we have more troops than we have ever had before, conducting more operations than ever before. and the taliban is clearly feeling it. >> brown: in all, about 150,000 foreign troops are fighting in afghanistan. more than 78,000 of those are americans including 30,000 that president obama added this year. they're set to begin drawing down in july 2011. u.s. commanders on the ground insist they are making progress, especially in the ongoing offensive against kandahar, in the south. >> we've taken back territory from the taliban, as well as taken some ammunition and caches that they have. this is a very dedicated enemy, who's very willing to fight and >> brown: as a result, casualties have shot up this year. last june, nato forces suffered more than 100 killed in action-- the highest monthly toll of the war. the figure has fallen somewhat since, but 15 nato service members have been killed already this month. overall, more than 2,000 nato troops have died since the war began. more than half of those deaths were americans. lately, the international forces in afghanistan have also faced delayed deliveries of supplies and equipment, after pakistan closed a key border crossing. it was retaliation for a nato helicopter raid that killed three pakistani border guards. the u.s. and nato have apologized, but a pakistani foreign ministry spokesman said today there's still no date for reopening the crossing. >> our authorities are evaluating the security situation and the decision with regard to re-opening the supply route will be taken in due course. >> brown: in the meantime, stalled nato convoys in pakistan have been targeted repeatedly by the taliban. >> suarez: still to come on the "newshour": the tea party challenge in kentucky; the investigation into the b.p. oil spill; the toxic red sludge in the danube river; the devastation after the floods in pakistan, and supreme court justice stephen breyer. but first, the other news of the day. here's hari sreenivasan in our newsroom. >> sreenivasan: two suicide bombers in pakistan hit a famed sufi muslim shrine today in karachi. at least eight people were killed, and 65 others were wounded. thousands of people usually visit the shrine on thursdays to pray and hand out food to the poor. more than 200,000 people have now been forced from their homes in southern china in the worst flooding there in 50 years. villagers on hainan island had to be evacuated by boat today. streets and homes were swamped by seven inches of rain in the last week. nearly 140 people have died in flooding across asia. the obama administration has won a round in the legal fight over health care reform. today in detroit, a federal judge upheld the mandate that most americans have health insurance, by 2014. he also upheld the financial penalty for not having insurance. separately, 20 states are challenging provisions of the health care law, in federal court in florida. the president will not sign a bill allowing home foreclosure documents to be accepted in multiple states. a spokesman said today it could worsen the growing problems caused by flawed documents. with congress out of session, mr. obama can kill the bill by refusing to sign it within 10 days of receiving it. the procedure is known as the "pocket veto." peruvian author mario vargas llosa has won the 2010 nobel prize in literature. he was cited today for his focus on resisting political violence and oppression. the 74-year-old writer's best- known works include "conversation in the cathedral" and "the green house." he was in new york today when word came. >> i am very pleased talking seriously, very grateful to the swedish academy. it was totally unexpected, a real surprise, for any writer it is a great encouragement, a recognition of work, work of my life, no? >> sreenivasan: the nobel peace prize will be awarded tomorrow. new york city asked the u.s. department of agriculture today to bar city residents from using food stamps to buy sugared drinks. that includes sodas, teas, sports drinks and other beverages containing sugar. mayor michael bloomerg said the initiative would give families more money to spend on food that provide real nourishment. the move would affect 1.7 million people in the city. wall street stalled today over uncertainty about tomorrow's report on unemployment. the dow jones industrial average lost 19 points to close at 10,948. the nasdaq rose three points to close at 2,383. those are some of the day's major stories. now, back to jeff. >> brown: now to campaign politics, as we travel to kentucky, where voter dissatisfaction with washington is front and center in the state's senate race. gwen ifill has our report, part of the newshour's "vote 2010" coverage. >> reporter: in kentucky, the tea party has a face. >> do we have some momentum for november? ( applause ) >> reporter: his name is rand paul-- an eye doctor from bowling green, whose father ron paul, is a libertarian republican congressman from texas. >> tonight, i'm going to make a prediction: rand paul is going to be the next senator from kentucky. >> reporter: the democrat vying for the seat being vacated by republican jim bunning is attorney general jack conway. both men are running hard. >> it's now a ground game, and with you on the phones, we're going to win this election. >> reporter: kentucky-- the home of bluegrass, bourbon, baseball bats and the world's most famous horse race-- has a political one on its hands this year. two mild-mannered canidates. two vigorous television ad campaigns. >> whose horse is jack conway riding? when the u.s. senate debated a government takeover of health care, conway supported it. jack conway, he's not riding kentucky's horse. >> rand paul wants us to pay $2,000 just to get medicare? that's crazy. i can't afford that. >> the real answer to medicare would be a $2,000 deductible. i don't know what planet he's from. >> reporter: in many ways, kentucky is the perfect state to test tea party strength. registered democrats outnumber republicans here by a healthy margin. yet barack obama lost to john mccain in 2008 by more than 16 points. so both senate candidates are going after conservative democrats jack conway by going after rand paul; and rand paul by going after barack obama. he even started airing an ad this week using an obama impersonator. all you can see are his hands. >> conway supported me for now, i need conway in washington because i know i can count on conway to vote for more spending and debt, bigger government and higher taxes. ( phone rings ) there he is now. mr. jack conway, now there's a guy i can work with in washington. >> i'm rand paul and i approve this message. i'd like to thank the one person who made this election juggernaut possible this year. it's the guy in the white house who is wrong on every issue. >> reporter: wrong, paul says, on government programs from disability regulations to education spending, from medicare to medicaid. >> over half of the births in kentucky are to medicaid right now. half the people in kentucky are not poor. we've made it too easy. let's not have intergenerational welfare. and that's what's been going on >> reporter: paul's numbers are off. state statistics show medicaid births at 37% in 2009 and the disabled also qualify for medicaid. but the underlying message strikes a chord. >> our country has gotten very out of whack. as you can imagine, i feel as a business owner, we create wealth, as opposed to being on the dole, where they have to confiscate money from those who produce wealth like myself and then redistribute it to other people. >> reporter: among conway's challenges: raising questions about paul without appearing to attack kentucky voters. >> look, i don't disparage the tea party. a lot of people talk about the tea party. the tea party is an expression of americans concern about spending. and i think that's legitimate. i think that's legitimate. i don't think rand paul's candidacy is legitimate when he comes out and says the things he does. >> reporter: as the polls have tightened, national democrats have begun pitching in to pay for ads that depict paul as the outsider. >> rand paul may get around but he doesn't get kentucky. the democratic senatorial campaign committee is responsible for the content of this advertising. >> reporter: conway tries to drive that same point home on the campaign trail. >> he doesn't share our values. >> reporter: at a northern kentucky hotel last weekend, tea party activists from throughout the region were plotting campaign strategy. >> talk radio can be huge for helping candidates get what they need without having to pay for it. >> reporter: conway's name never came up. >> rand paul will win in november, and the establishment will be set back on their heels and the established republicans will look and say, "wow, we didn't know this was coming." >> reporter: blindsiding republicans as well as democrats is just fine by paul. >> part of my reason for running for office is that its not just that i think we need another republican. i think we need reform of the whole system. >> reporter: we caught up with paul, who avoids most reporters' questions, as he left a chamber of commerce meeting. what does that mean? what does that say? >> i think the issues are more important than the party. i think often we get distracted by getting too partisan. i don't see people who are democrats as always being wrong or republicans as always being right. and i think there has to be compromise on the budget. and in order to address the deficit, the only compromise i think we can have is that you have to look at the whole budget. we've always excluded the military and said were not going to cut the military. or the democrats exclude the social and domestic welfare spending. everything has to be on the table. we have to do this intelligently. we can't make it a political football that, "oh, he's going to cut social security. i'm not going to cut social security but for the future. we have to figure out how to do this and we can't keep doing the same thing over and over again. >> reporter: but if the other republicans say, but that's not what-- you're naive, you're moving too fast. what do you say to them? >> i think there's going to be a lot of new republicans coming up there. and so, were hoping that the caucus has a much, maybe a different mixture of folks. >> reporter: a little more edge perhaps? >> maybe, i hope so. >> reporter: mainstream republicans have reluctantly embraced paul. kentucky secretary of state trey grayson, who paul defeated in the primary, has endorsed him but still has misgivings. >> an argument i tried to make in the primary, which i didn't succeed, was we still need a role for government. it just has to be reduced. it'll be interesting when the reality of the reality and the rhetoric collide when we get to washington. governing is hard. it's really hard. >> reporter: but other republicans, including northern kentucky congressman geoff davis say candidates like paul are only the tip of a conservative iceberg. >> we're seeing a generation rising up now across this country, an arc from the mississippi river valley all the way up through the ohio valley, down to the central part of the united states where very significant numbers of conservatives of all stripes are coming out to vote. >> reporter: and jim demint, the south carolina senator who has been traveling the country on behalf of tea party candidates tells audiences ideological purity is more important than party loyalty. >> i would rather have 40 republicans who believe in the principles of freedom than 60 who believe in nothing at all. ( applause ) i know what numbers without principles can do. >> reporter: democrats, meanwhile, are counting on some voters to go to the polls to vote against paul, as much as for conway. >> i live in anchorage, kentucky, which is an eastern suburb of louisville, and i am surrounded by tea party supporters. they're quite vocal, and frankly, quite frightening. >> rand paul scares me. i do consider both parties every time i vote. i would not be for rand paul even if i weren't as convinced by jack conway. >> reporter: yet some democrats are uneasy. this man complained directly to his candidate at a sunday morning meeting for conway volunteers. >> it has to be beyond the sophomoric political pablum that's being pushed out. >> i appreciate that point and we'll do that... >> reporter: and it didn't take much to start a debate between these two men at an outdoor festival in louisville. >> i have to make a decision based on the soundbites i hear on the radio, see on tv for five minutes before i go to sleep at 11:00 at night. >> or 5:00 in the morning. >> or 5:00 or 6:00 in the morning, and it's just enough time. >> i'm 76 and i'm retired and ib hardly have time in my day. >> reporter: can i just say something. you guys both sound frustrated. >> amen. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. >> reporter: in a way, both conway and paul are counting on that frustration. >> we were out in the eastern part of the state and we didn't meet one person who agreed with the federal takeover of health care. we don't agree with the president on obamacare. >> i get it. i mean, i get that anger. i think the question is how people want to channel that anger. do they want to be destructive or do they want to be constructive. i'd like to be a different kind of democrat maybe not so much partisan fighting. let's actually try to get something done. >> reporter: conway and paul met in their first debate sunday, and will face off four more times in the next four weeks. >> brown: we'll look at senate contests in florida, nevada and california in the coming weeks. >> suarez: now, an update on the gulf oil spill. a commission asked by the president to investigate the disaster has offered some harsh criticism of the white house response. the national commission on the b.p. deepwater horizon oil spill released its preliminary findings yesterday. it found the federal government "by initially underestimating the amount of the oil flow created the impression that it was either not fully competent to handle the spill or not fully candid with the american people about the scope of the problem." white house press secretary robert gibbs responded to the charges today. >> we always sought to provide the best information as we were engaged in the most robust federal response that we've ever seen to an accident of this magnitude ever. >> suarez: for more, we turn to david fahrenholt, who is covering the story for "the washington post." he joins us from their newsroom. and, david, in addition to the criticism of the obama administration's counting on the barrels of oil, what were the main findings in this preliminary report? >> basically they were... could be embarrassing for an administration that has really prided itself on two things, on scientific rigor and also on transparency in government. they show that at times the government stood by a figure for how large the oil spill was-- in particular 5,000 barrels a day-- that was the estimate for most of may, it stood by that figure at a time when other independent scientists seemed to be questioning it saying "look, the number seems to be much larger than 5,000 barrels a day." and when the origin of that number was actually not that strong. so the government didn't really seem curious about its own information, its own data and the reporter described it as having take an casual approach to the data. that's one thing. on the other side of this transparency issue, there was a question of when the government knew how bad things about the spill was. that shows up at the very beginning of the spill, actually, right after... the day after the rig sank the rear admiral mary landry one of the card officials was asked request v you seen evidence of a leak and she said "we've examined the riser pipe" which is a pipe that goes from the bottom of the ocean up to the rig "and found it's not leaking." in fact, the report says they had not examed that pipe. it turned out later upon examination to be leaking. so if you look at this... if you look at those thing two things you see examples of where they sort out set out this high strain dard for themselves and the way they would handle the spill and didn't seem they were up to it most of the time or some of the time at least. >> suarez: the report makes clear the commission's belief that the government misstated all during the early parts of this crisis the amount of oil that was spilling into the gulf. but do they maintain that the government knew these figures were false? >> i make one clarification. this is not something that the commission itself has voted on, this is the staff of 2 commission. the obama administration made that point very clear today they think this is different than the commission having sort of decided on in. and the question of how much they knew, that was question both of not saying... there was a question in which the responders seemed to be using higher numbers internally to guide their response. they were talking about numbers as high as 60,000 barrels a day in a vig sense behind the scenes and were basing their response on that but telling the public, look, it's only 5,000 barrels a day. the