Transcripts For KQED Nightly Business Report 20141105 : comp

Transcripts For KQED Nightly Business Report 20141105

Issues important to business . All that and more tonight for the nightly Business Report. Good evening, everyone, oil was the big news on wall street today with another sharp drop in prices. They touched 75 a barrel. Brent crude the International Benchmark fell to a fouryear low. The selloff was sparked by saudi arabias unexpected decision to cut what it charges the u. S. For crude. Theyre now worried that could open the way for more prices to climb as Oil Production is at an all time high, west texas crude was down 1. 59 a barrel close about 77. Jackie deangelis has more on the slide in oil prices as traders wonder how low can it bo . Reporter a blood bath in the crude pit. Traders saying saudi arabias price cuts yesterday were the trigger and the sec nickal seller. Opec was once again lowering prices, not cutting production. The dollar started to strengthen again. We traded through that 79 area. It looks like good resistance now. If next report would be the 74, 95 number. All eyes are on opecs next meeting november 27th. Traders were thinking we could see supplies cut from the cartel. That is the latest move as the most influential member indicates this could be a price war. They want to put small of the smallest producers, the ones at higher capital cost to produce crude oil. They want to put them out of business and show that by reducing prices to the u. S. The United Arab Emirates oil minster recently said there is no need to panic on opec pricing. They have been local in expressing concerns. Could their influence be enough to sway the cartel . The middle eastern powers have a lot of powers still t. Reason they do, because the crude oil they produce is cheap. Therefore, they have a lot of leeway on what they want to do with the price. If theyre producing at 30 a barrel, they can sent it down and still scratch or make a little money. If you are a latin american producer and you have a higher production cost, you cant go down as far. Everywhere you look oil bombs are turning into bears. Traders looking for oil to drop to 75 is saying 70 and some to more downside from there. The good fuse oil slide has had a major impact on retail gas prices, hitting a 49 month low with the National Average under 3, now its 2. 97 according to aaa. We havent seen this since christmas of 2010. Christmas may have come early but u. S. Oil producers could be getting cold. For the nightly Business Report, im jackie deangelis. The decline is having an impact on dozens of stock and market sectors. Some shares strained along with the price of oil, others gained. Morgan brennan takes a look at the winners and the losers. Oil dropped down over 40 in the past three months. Elts fuelling a selloff with the commoditiy. As investors worry prices will crimp u. S. Production. I think we have seen a response to lower oil prices, i think people are a little in shock. They want to see how much lower it can go. Shale drillers, including marathon oil could be impacted the most, especially if crude falls to 70 bucks a barrel. The expiration takes a lot of up front capital. Oil Fields Services Companies Like halliburton and queus with production could feel the effects and since the slow down in output could mean a slow down if demand for drilling materials, investors are keeping an eye on Companies Like high fresh partners which mind the sand critical to the fracking process. Some experts think all of this has presented a buying opportunity. Right now id be stepping into the integrated oil and gas numbers, so companies,oid id also be looking hard at some of the refining companies. Reporter some industries are already benefiting. Airlines have soared. Shipping giants ups and fedex could get a lift from falling doze el prices, just as they enter the busy Holiday Season Companies Like csx and Union Pacific stand to gain from lower fuel costs. The crude by rail business could modestly cut into profits next 84. Okay, there is a consumer. Gasoline prices are falling below 3 and it could translate into higher sales for retailers, restaurants and leisure companies. But all of this, winners and losers, depends not just on how low crude goes, but how long it stays there. For nightly Business Report, im morgan brennan. We are joined now with more analysis on the impact of lower oil prices, the chief economist, hi, bob, nice to have you with us. Its nice to be here. You heard from all of our reports, low oil prices are great for consumers in needy Industries Like airlines, but in the end, is there a point at which they get so low, maybe its 70, maybe its 60, where it has a negative impact on the World Economy . What are your thoughts . I think for the most part, low oil prices are good, consumers get a break. We dont produce all of our oil a. Lot of the damage is done to producers occurs on the imports side, not on the domestics side. You also have threats to other energy. I think probably below 50 barrel you start to do more disruptive things on the producers side. Its not getting to that region, getting prices down, its creating a per spgs they will stay down. Some of the ones that are weaker and levered up with debt, let me get to the broader question of if the lowering price of oil puts money in consumers pockets and they spend it, what does that do to u. S. Economic growth . Does it add. 3 of a percent or something more . I think we are on the order of. 3 of growth in the fourth quarter. Its a nice positive for gdp him it could be a nice positive for retailer products and Consumer Confidence is moving up. I think that rise to Consumer Confidence has been partly in the back of these low energy prices. I think thats good news. You get the multiplyer effect from that. Theyre modest, theyre good. Any negatives to be concerned about there as consumers spend more . Does that create inflationary problems or deflationary problems with lower prices everywhere you look . Yeah, thats a great question. I think you create some distress and opposite effects here. First of all the Lower Energy Prices creates a problem for the ecb and the feds. The feds has an inflation target. They told us at the very last meeting the decline is temporary. I dont know what they think temporary is. It looks like its severe him it means it will go on some time wind chill relikely to see the fed which missed if inflation for 29 months in a row. They missed it a couple months in the future and probably even more. That will put them under pressure to do more. So mostically it puts money in peoples pockets. They are able to spend money on nonoil prices. But the main effect, of course, is inflation is lower. They have to deal with more inflationary consequences. The fed may have missed its inflation target for 29 months in a row, i would think most consumer would cheer that. They miss on the low side. The number versus come in lower than they wanted. That feels good to most people. I dont think it does, one of the lowest once, on the last jobs report, wages rose last month by zero. So that low inflation. People have a lot of nominal obligations they have to pay for. A little inflation is good. It makes the house papers go up the burden of your mortgage payments last. Everybody recognizes inflation. You got those nominal liabilities. So, you know, this undershooting is one of the things that helps keep the economy under a lot of strain and the feds want to get the inflation back. From a monetary palmettos the old rule is inflation overshooting is good. But weve come to appreciate the risk of deflation and the problems that low inflation creates for this economy. All right a lot of interesting pushes and pulls. Its always a pleasure touk talking with you. At the end of the day, mixed and a little change despite oil prices, a lower growth for the european union. The u. S. Trade deficit was wider in september. It expanded to 43 billion as u. S. Exports slowed down. Heres how the markets looked at the closing bell t. Dow up 17 points t. Nasdaq down 15 and tha s p fell apart. Well, it is election day and there is a lot at stake, 36 seats in the senate up tore grabs. The race for the Governors Mansion in 36 states and all 435 seats in the house after billion have been spent advertising. Millions of americans are casting their boats. John harwood is with us now to talk about what todays midterm elections mean for your money. So, john, lets just say the republicans do take control of the senate. If that were to happen, what does this mean for fiscal policy . Will there be another budget showdown . I think republicans have decide a government shut down crisis or things bad for their party in future elections, but i do think it will make a change in the approach the senate takes to issues like potentially tax reform. Thats not likely to happen in the next couple years. It makes trade deals more likely. The trade deals they are trading with specific partners. As well as one in europe. It makes the possibility the keystone pipelines could, in fact, go through, which has been held up in part because democrats are uneasy. Lets talk about political issues that could be acted. Its one immigration, the other is obamacare. The senate has passed the bipartisan immigration. So long as the house appears poised to block that measure. Its hard to see what, in fact, could get through the senate that would change the equation. The president is poised to take unilateral action and liamize some millions of people, maybe not all 11 million here and on the e, car bonne regulation, that energy initiative, the president is moving forward with this regulation. The question is going to be whether the Republican Senate can stop them. You mentioned the e. There have been questions about the agency like the environmental agency, like the Consumer Financial protection borough. Down there is any changes . There are those, you know, set for life . No, i do think there will be a budget pressure on parts that lub republicans dont like. Mish mcconnell said he will use spending bills to try to squeeze the administration. You can bet the e is one he singled out. Hes accusing the administration on a war on comb. Other states will try it as well. Thanks, so much, john harwood reporting on todays election. Straight ahead the industry undergoes a massive transformation. Can it keep pace with changing Consumer Habits without cannibalizing core businesses . Shares of dish network moved a little lower on the dial today. The nations no. 2 satellite tv provider missed earnings estimate recording a sharp drop in profits. Revenue also fell as it lost another 12,000 subscribers and broadband is slow. Its outlook isnt better. Dish cut the revenue forecast for the full year. After the bell, earnings from 21st century fox, the media empire is run in part by billion ayre rupert murdock. They boat wall street estimates by three full pennies. Revenues more than 1. 5 billion more than forecast, mostly thanks to higher sales than the Cable Television properties and a stronger Box Office Take for films and dawn of planet of the apes. With profits up 10 , shares were initially higher in after hours trading. Besides fox, this is a big week for media earnings. Those results come as the media giants grap welviewing habits and the rise of streaming Video Services as tv watchers have fixed out how to cut the table cord. Reporter one thing for sure, consumers are changing how they watch cable tv. I picked another app. Most of my movie and tv shows intake is all online to be honest from my computer. I watch more netflix on my phone than my tv. I dont even turn on my tv anymore. Media giants are skirmishing to keep up with that demand. We see the Companies Struggle with the legacy business model, predicated on views and trying to straddle the divide between the legacy model and adapting to the new world. This weeks media earnings comes on the heels of cbs and hbo announcing new services that could upend the media biz, direct streaming video, for people who dont pay a cable tv bill. Discovery ceo says hes not concerned about consumers being able to get into channels rather than unbundle. The unbundling, i dont see it happening. I think if it does move in that direction over time, we own all of our content, with i is an advantage. He may not be worried for now. Discovery shares fell on weak advertising growth. The street is quite concerned with the near term, the platforms continue to gain traction with consumers and affects the ratings for these companies which is an advertising growth rate. We will see what the Companies Say tomorrow about how they plan to create new revenue without cannibalizing tear core business. Time inc. Corporated Beat Estimates with shares on that is where we begin. Profit and revenue exceeded forecasts. The nations dropts in print revenue dropped the company to drop it for the second time. There is Time Incorporated dropping almost 7 is . Michael kors dealt with a similar reaction from investors. Its earnings jump continued to see strength. But the company known for its handbags and watch itself is forecasting that its sales and profits for the Holiday Quarter will be below consensus shares. Off about 8 . In ali babas first report since a huge trading debut, the Chinese Internet Company reported the profit fell largely because the stock awards employees before its ipo. The revenue jumped and its mobile services did continue to grow. The executive chairman explained how he plans to continue that growth. Were going to be focused, meaning that we are bringing a lot of merchants from outside of china to sell platforms. We will focus on mobile because the User Behavior is rapidly shifting to buying on mobile devices. Shares of ali baba trading under the Ticker Symbol baba up 6 to 106. 07. Priceline is warning, the forecast was well below expectations. Shares did fall to 100. I didnt even read that wry right. Cvs saw its ref now rise on strength in its pharmacy business. That offset a decline in front of the store sales since the Company Stopped Selling cigarettes last month. Its full quarter projections tell the consensus. They were off the traction. They offered the ethanol business to remain strong for the year and thats despite sliding energy prices. Profits rose and even though revenues fell short of estimates, shares were up almost 5 percent to 49 pin 54. Fireeye lunged after the Third Quarter revenue missed. It reported a loss smaller than expected but for the current can the quarter, its revenue forecast came in below analysts forecasts. Shares were way down. During the regular session, the stock was up 1. 5 to 34. 25. Blizzards results were better tan expected on strong sales and an increase in world of war craft subscribers. The video games make the Holiday Outlook disappointing. After the bell, shares were up initially. During the regular trading sex. Shares were off by 2 to 1995. It may not sound sexy. The payment is attracting a lot of tech satisfiy isentrepreneur looking to get a billion dollars moved globally every day, via credit cards, mobile phones, on computers, by making the process of paying faster, cheaper, simpleer. Mary thompson has more on the future of payment on the money 2020 conference. Where else, vegas. Reporter the crowds boat volume. Payments are hot, generating heat welcomed by old line firms like american express. I like competition. Reporter the competition in full force at the money 2020 conference where ms ceo shared light on how the Company Stays relevant in a rapidly changing space. If you dont innovate, you die. You have to constantly innovate. You have to constantly challenge the status quo. Reporter the status quo is cash. Still used in over 80 of transactions, firms including visa are trying to change. There is still an enormous amount of cash in the world. Nobody likes to use cash. Nobody likes to carry it or use it. Reporter the companies here know a faster safer alternative to cash will be key to any dependency. Of course, technology is helping to speed the transition. That means standards today could soon be obsolete standards like passwords. Biometrics can hold the key, they say they can prevent massive hack attacks like those that hit target and home depo. How . Its not a password, but your voice the software uses to validate the user. Please complete my transaction. Meaning it wont process the payment until you, only you say so. If i get the password, no matter how secure, i will consider front door. That is the issue. When you are at a biometric, are you attaching control to a human. Gift cards are widely a substitute. Though the online gift cards for gifts that the future lies in their global reach. I think we will see more things, groceries home. At the heart of the future payments, though, a consumer dropping too many local purchases at checkout we solved this by covering the purchase and billing the consumer later. Combineing speed to the market next year. It will be a one buying for everything. Reporter bringing consumers one step closer to a future where cash may flo longer be king. For nightly Business Report, im Mary Thompson in vegas. Coming up, want to avoid your flight early . That will cost you. Food, get out your wal let. A carryon bag . You get the idea him we are tallying up the extra fees to find out hoich you will be paying when flying. That story is next. October turned out to be the worst month on record for casino revenues. Thats because the former portugese colony now a part of china has seen a sharp drop in tourists and found itself if beijings crosshairs in a wore on corruption. Last month

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