Transcripts For KQED Nightly Business Report 20140612 : comp

Transcripts For KQED Nightly Business Report 20140612

Here in the u. S. , with indications the recovery will be delayed. And that changed investors course today after a string of market records today. They sold stocks. But that probably wasnt the only thing that pressured the major averages. There was weakness in the transports and wall street is still digesting majority leader eric cantors defeat in a primary last night. By the close, the dow fell 102 points, the nasdaq dipped 6, and the s p was off about 7 points. But by while world bank downgrades, the outlook for global growth, Steve Liesman says many here in the United States are more upbeat about the economy. Reporter slowly, americans are clawing back some of the optimism they lost during the Great Recession and the tepid recovery. The cnbc allamerica Economic Survey for june shows the percent of americans who say the current state of the economy is poor, this after seven long years and a surge to 70 at the height of the financial crisis, its now fallen back to its prerecession level of 33 . More than a third will r expecting an increase in wages, the best since 2008. And the percent of americans looking for an increase in home values hit its second best level since the recession. Better home values and wage gains. Whats not to like . The expected increases are muted compared to how optimistic americans used to be. For example, before the crisis, americans regularly expected wage gains of 5 to 7 a year. Now its a good number when its 3. 5 . And while fewer americans think the economy is poor, they dont really think its as good as it was before the crisis. The survey that was in line with other data showing a return to prerecession levels for things like the total number of jobs in the nation and the steady march backup, Small Business optimism and other Consumer Confidence surveys. The bottom line may be this. Americans dont see the economy as bad as it was, but their optimism is taking what looks to be a permanent hit. There is one good sign. Americans plan to spend as much this year on Summer Vacation as they did, you guessed it, before the recession. So they still know how to enjoy themselves. For nightly Business Report, im Steve Liesman. Investors were also watching political events and the surprising defeat of House Majority leader eric cantor in his republican primary. Hell step down as house leader on july 31st. Now, the defeat is believed to threaten congressional reauthorization of lowcost lending through the Export Import Bank. Many businesses count on that financing for exporting goods to international markets. One analyst cited boeing as a big loser in this. Boeing shares fell almost 2. 5 , making the Aerospace Giant the worst in the stock today. And other business communities theyre now concerned about, as well. John harwood joins us now from washington to tell us about all of that. Lets begin with just why does cantors loss matter so much to american businesses and wall street as well . Well, susie, eric cantor was a very ksht or is a very conservative member of congress. But he was also seen as one who balanced some of the zeal for conservative principles with a pro business tilt. He liked wall street, and wall street liked him. Wall street was one of his biggest sources of funds. On crucial fights, ranging from things like the xm bank, things like the reauthorization of the commodities future trading commission, things like government shutdown, he was seen in the end as somebody who was going to make sure that catastrophe didnt happen. That is still likely the case, because john boehner is somebody like that, as well. But this may make a difference on the margins. What would this mean, specifically, for that Export Import Bank reauthorization, and others that you just mentioned here . And wouldnt the individual who is likely to succeed him, mr. Brat, go along with these things, or would he not . Well, the issue isnt mr. Brat. Hes going to be just one member. Its going to be the House Republican Leadership Team and what they can get their rank and file to do. The problem, of course, is that that rank and file is scared to death in the wake of this election result. So i would think that both kevin mccarthy, who is likely to succeed eric cantor as republican leader and Speaker Boehner would try to win the reauthorization of the xm bank, but it becomes more difficult now that cantor is not there. And, you know, john, when this news came out today, there were all sorts of things that appeared on the worry list. You mentioned one of them. Government shutdown, debt ceiling debate. Even people were talking about what this means for the Credit Rating for u. S. U. S. Debt. Should we really be worried about those things . Possibility. We dont know for sure. The next debt limit runs out in early 2015, and thats going to be the initial test of this new Leadership Teams ability now that the tea party has gotten a second wind. All right, john harwood, thanks very much. Interesting story today in washington and virginia. Also, in washington, legislation that would have allowed people to refinance their Student Loans was blocked in the senate. The vote fell short of the 60 needed to advance the debate. The measure would have let millions of borrowers, many with loan rates topping 7 refinance at lower costs. General motors ceo is heading back to washington. Mary barra will testify before Congress Next week about the defective ignition switch that went for a decade. Also testifying, former u. S. Attorney, anton vil lucas, a report on the delayed recall. Lawmakers could have a lot of questions about that. The last time barra testified, she refused to answer some questions until the vil lucas report was complete. Jpmorgan may be close to cutting compensation and reducing jobs in its investment banks. Speaking at an investment conference, the chief Financial Officer didnt give a time frame, but said it was a possibility if trading revenue doesnt bounce back. Last month, jpmorgan warned its Second Quarter fixed income and Equities Trading would probably drop 20 from just a year ago. Speaking of banks, talks between bank of america and the Justice Department have hit a snag. As we have been reporting, the two have been negotiating a multibillion Dollar Settlement over the banks mortgage investments. But now, according to the new york times, the talks stalled after the banks offered to pay about 12 billion didnt satisfy prosecutors. They face numerous investigations into the securitization of mortgage bonds before the financial crisis. Enter National Events are also grabbing investors attention. Nato ambassadors had a meeting to discuss the security situation in iraq, where militants took 80 turkish citizens hostage. Meanwhile, in vienna, where the members of the organization of Petroleum Exporting countries, opec, were meeting, iraqs oil minister said he did not expect the violence in the north to spread to the countrys oilproducing south. Today, crude providices finishe with a gain of 5 cents to 104. 40. Steve sedgewick has more on the opec meeting from vienna. Reporter here in vienna, ministers decided to leave production levels unchanged at 30 Million Barrels a day, roughly 40 of global oil supply. They did that because prices appear to be in some form of equilibrium with the supply and demand dynamics finally tuned at the moment. The provides opec is getting is around 108 a barrel. And theyre happy with that price, as well. But there are concerns on a country by country basis. Iraq has an insurgency on its hands, protests in libya means their production outfit is a fraction of what it could be. Nigeria has issues and iran. Iran, of course, looking to have the end of sanctions regarding its Nuclear Program so it can export as many barrels as indeed it hopes it can going forward. Now, there are other issues, including the role of mr. El band re will continue in that role until the middle of 2015, after replacement there just wasnt one because we couldnt get a consensus amongst mechanics. This is Steve Sedgewick in vienna. China is ramping up spending. Its planning big infrastructure projects, including highways, Rail Networks and oil and gas storage and Distribution Centers in an effort to energize the worlds secondlargest economy. China grew at its slowest pace in 18 months in the first quarter, and analysts say the asian nation could likely announce more stimulative measures. Big American Companies with exposure to china are hoping the stimulus measures work and get consumers in that country spending again, because they have a lot at stake if Spending Continues to slow over there. Sara eisen explains. Reporter add this to the laundry list of worries for Corporate America right now. The Chinese Consumer is slowing down. See less investment growth, less credit growth, ask thats passing through to less income growth, particularly for households that own businesses. Reporter watch for retail Sales Numbers out on friday. Recently, though, import numbers, along with Hong Kong Retail sales and disappointing results from prada and other Luxury Brands all point to weakness. In fact, in an effort to boost growth activity, china announced new plans, cutting the lending rate to banks and businesses and borrowers. That could take a while to work. And in the meantime, some American Consumer giants could feel the pinch. Consumer Edge Research found that Consumer Staples companies are among those in the crosshairs. Of that group, Procter Gamble is the most exposed to the Chinese Consumer slow down with 8 of total sales coming from china. Its followed by Anheuser Busch at 7 and coke cola. General mills, pepsico and the Hershey Company all get 2 of total sales from china. It may not sound like much, but in a world where growth is hard to come by, that could hurt the overall numbers and performance. At least in the short term. Longer term, the outlook still looks bright. If you looked at the most recent cpi report for may, for example, the cost of getting the plumber to come into your home in china is going up 7. 3 in year ago terms. So thats a considerable rate of increase in wages for middleskilled workers in china. And that should was through into higher Consumer Spending for mass market goods. Reporter china is the worlds second largest economy, and its consumer considered the holy grail for businesses around the world. Thats why they have been pouring in recent years into the country with the hope of fast growth and big spending. But for now, it could prove to be a headache, and a headwind in next quarter earnings reports. Luckily, economists say it is just temporary. For nightly Business Report, im sara eisen. Traffic snarled in europe, all because of a car service here in the u. S. Well explain why, and what it might mean for ubers prospect as a public company. In Capital Cities across europe, horns were blaring, people were protesting, and traffic slowed to a crawl, all to show their disdain for a carsharing service. From london to berlin, taxi drivers are venting their anger against uber. The privately held startup, which has recently been valued around 18 billion, allows users to book a taxi using a smartphone. And as this new up and comer tries to change the way the industry works, its not going over well with taxi and limousine drivers. Steph stephan pedrazi has the story. Reporter its the second time theyre blocking the streets in order to protest against the competition from private companies, like uber. They believe its an unfair competition as theyre not facing the same rules. Taxi drivers must pay a license of 300,000 it is, while private companies only pay a small Registration Fee every year. The french government promised to regulate the sector, but its not really planning to address the core problem, which is the lack of taxis in the french capital. Over here, its not unusual on weekends to wait for up to one hour in order to get a taxi. But still, the majority of french people believe that taxi drivers are right to take it to the streets. According to a recent survey, 56 of them think that taxi drivers are right to go on strike. Not surprising, after all, in a country where competition is a key word and where strike is almost a national sport. In paris for nightly Business Report, im stephan pedrazi. The protests have actually been good for business. The company said it saw an 850 jump in app downloads compared to last wednesday. So how will all of this hoopla play out for uber, both financially and legally . Lets get some perspectives from our experts. Roger mac that me, co funder of elevation partners. Welcome, gentlemen, both of you. Mr. Singer, as i understand it, and i have some sympathy with the taxi and limousine drivers, who are subject in many cities around the world and in this country to regulations and requirements, that they would object to this upstart, a disrupter, coming in. And ubers answer, i am told in part is that were not really, really legally a car service. Were a match maker, putting together people who want a car and somebody who has a car. Is that a legal fiction, a fig leaf, or what . Thats been their defense so far. They have claimed theyre just a filter, match maker, arranger, not a private car company, not a private transportation service. But if you look across the country, a lot of states and a lot of municipalities have opined whether uber is legal or illegal. New york, massachusetts, california. Initially, they issued cease and desist letters to the company and tried to preclude them from operating and then after public outcry, they reversed course. Then again, municipalities like austin and miami, who have said, you know what, this is illegal. And this violates a variety of different regulations, both in the state and city level. So you know, its interesting. Theres no unanimity yet. But the public outcry is so extreme in favor of uber that i think eventually theres going to be unanimity and uber is going to be allowed to enter all jurisdictions. Roger, let me ask you, as an entrepreneur, venture capitalist who has invested in so many Silicon Valley companies, you know, why why is whats wrong with being a free market disrupter here . And what comes to mind for me is fedex taking on the post office. Napster taking on the music industry. In the end, is uber going to prevail . I think so. And i think for precisely the reasons that the other guest was just speaking about. That the Service Really works. And in many cases, at least in the United States, they really are serving as a match maker for existing limousine drivers and existing taxi drivers. Its doing a much better job of helping them find fares quickly than they were able to do under the old systems. I think the real challenge for investors in looking at uber is what is it worth. Weve obviously got a stake in the ground placed by fidelity and others at 18 billion, which is a breath taking number, no matter how what do you think . I believe that well, you know, i dont think its the number will work if the Company Remains a reservation system only. But i think their Market Opportunity is gigantic in the following context. We have something developing in the United States, and i think around the world called the sharing economy, where increasingly, consumers are choosing to live in cities, and instead of borrowing a lot of money to buy cars and to buy homes, they are using things on a pay as you go basis, effectively doing what businesses have been doing for 30 years. I think that is a change that is fundamental and is going to last a long time. And uber is one of the core players there. So to me, if i were the ceo of uber or its competitor, lift, i would be taking this capital, the billions of dollars theyre able to raise at essentially no cost, and i would go to General Motors or to Mercedes Benz and buy a billion dollars worth of cars at a huge discount and become the primary owner of cars. In the long run, people will want to take their iphone and rent an hour or two at a time. And uber can be that player, and if their cost of capital, they and left have an open opportunity to make that work and i know that thats not owning capital goods is not a popular thing. But i know wall street is going to love it. Im with your other guest. I think consumers have decided that uber and its competitors are a better idea. Paying for the convenience. John, i dont know whether you were able to see the faint smi

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