There is a new generation with a new mind set that believes everything thats on the web is free for the taking. Its affecting journalism, film, anything that can be digitized. So there is really not much money to be made in selling records anymore. Your record is just an advertisement for your tour. Rose bremmer and henley when we continue. 1 rose funding for charlie rose has been provided by american express. Rose additional funding provided by and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and Information Services worldwide. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. Rose pope francis arrived in washington today coming from cuba for his visit to the United States. Also, president xi jinping of china came to the United States. His first stop is seattle, then washington and new york. Cybersecurity and chinas actions in the South China Sea will be on the agenda during bilateral talks with president obama. In syria, russia stepped up Logistical Support for the assad regime. The Russian Military sent warplanes, helicopters, tanks, artillery and guns in what the president says is a campaign against i. S. I. S. More than 400,000 syrians have fled the country. A damageplan to relocate 120,000 refugees despite opposition by some member countries. The United States promised to accept 85 now 2016 and 100,000 in 2017. Here to talk about all of this, ian bremmer, he is the president and founder of the Political Risk analysis firm, eurasia group, and as always i am pleased to have him at this table. Welcome. Good to be back. Rose lets start with xi jinping since there is so much attention on this. Clearly there are issues that need to be resolved and the top, i assume, is cybersecurity. It is and the first talk about that xi jinping makes is to talk to all technology c. E. O. S on the west coast and washington. Rose and other c. E. O. S, too. Indeed. The chinese are the most important market in the world for some of these american c. E. O. S and the cheese made it very clear, theyve twisted a bunch of arms that told these executives youre coming and we want you to pledge to Chinese International concerns if you want to keep coming to this country. Rose there was talk about sngses being imposed before he came and the chinese didnt like that and it did not happen. And the chinese privately said that theyd cut that summit and turn right back around if the sanctions were put on rose if the sanctions are imposed, they said . They said privately they werent going to attend the summit. But if but the sanctions hat been taken off the table and i think well see a breakthrough agreement between the americans and chinese particularly on cyber. They have been talking. Its been acrimonious but there is been progress that they will pledge to not attack each others Critical Infrastructure with cyber. Never had an agreement like that before on a cyber issue. At the same time, it doesnt address the chinese engaging in industrial espionage, so sanctions are still on the table. This relationship is getting more politicized on the political front. The chinese feel we wont treat them as equal partners and the americans feel the chinese are getting away with reckless abandon, not having the rule of law and using their rules and lack of rules to benefit chinese corporations at the expense of the americans. Were really not coming to agreement here and we have a political pressure in the United States because of election season, many president ial candidates talking at great length about this, and the chinese are under more domestic pressure because theyre had all this market volatility which has created some criticism of xi jinping in cheen. Rose whether their reaction was appropriate. Whether they were reaction was adequate or sufficient and xi jinping feeling confident in terms of his position globally but not willing to take criticism domestically or give any corner to president obama. Rose and the president is going to make a speech, in and the pope is going to make a speech. Everybody wants to see, hear or touch the pope. Some people dont want to hear his message, his pastoral message about what we need to do about refugees, about immigrants, about having a stronger sense of our brothers and sisters around the world. But congress is great, a sense of ceremony. A lot of people tinted want to see netanyahu come and address congress. But when he got there and rallied the crowd, everybody stood up and applauded. In case of the pope, everyones going to go. Congressmen are falling all over themselves to see whos more christian, believes in god more and is more willing to uphold values. Rose some of the things he says will be appealing to republicans and some democrat. And he wont embarrass everybody, hell deliver messages but his charisma is hes not trying to show the emperor has no clothes in front of the emperor directly. Rose but there is some pushback. I have to admire his pastoral role. You have to admire how he has used his own personality to be a towering figure as he shuns the the apartment and always insists on having the least attractive things for himself and, in fact, constantly says its not about me, its about jesus, and things like that. But at the same time, i mean, he is offering the world social critique about the way the world works. This is a country that is craving authenticity and in our own president ial elections, were only getting it in people like trump and bernie sanders. Pope francis brings authenticity to an entirely different level. Rose he says what he thinks. And he acts the way he believes, and thats important, and thats problematic in the sense the Catholic Church represents a whole host of things that could not be implemented in an advanced industrial economy, some of the antiscience perspectives you see in response to climate change, some of the antican tallism perspectives would not only be dangerous, and the fund mendell message that refugees have to be taken care of, all of those yes. How can you not be excited . His first trip to the United States. Yet no one is saying, oh, he went to cuba first, is from argentina, talks about the poor, he is pointing his finger at the. 1 . Most americans think that this is precisely what american has been lacking for a long time and we no longer know what america stands for and we want our values back. Rose were we in any way as a country embarrassed by the fact europe and germany in the beginning were accepting many more refugees than we were . Depends on which europeans. I think we were embarrassed by the headlines and the fact that we were nowhere on this, but i think the europeans are largely nowhere on this with the exception of germany, and germany is a wait and see case. Rose the pope took some families into the vatican. He did, i think two. Some heads of state in europe, the finnish Prime Minister brought in one himself. This agreement in europe which is enormously contention is a tiny fraction of just the syrian refugees. 90 of the syrian refugees, the 4. 2 million now, are not in the e. U. Theyre in turkey, iraq, jordan, lebanon, egypt, and the proposals coming from some of the Eastern European countries are close the borders and lets give some money to the turks and jordanians so we dont have to deal with the issue. I dont think the americans are feeling embarrassed by the europeans. I think the americans are feeling embarrass bid dead children washing up on shores and boats of migrants that have nowhere to go. Rose im embarrass bid that. Im embarrassed. But im stunned that we still have that you had the Republican Debate, three hours of the Republican Debate just last week, and i watched all three, and we talked about immigration, we talked about the mexican wall. Nobody asked about the syrians. Thats kind of astonishing. Its a long way to swim to the United States, but we still dont really see or feel this is an issue. Rose within your realm of core competence, Foreign Policy and those kinds of issues, who on the republican side seems to be most savvy about understanding those conflicts . Well, the one thats the two that have been most impressive so far, marco rubio, his ability to display coherence and understanding of the Big International issues out there has impressed me on international trade, certainly on terrorism, on russianukraine, just general fluency, more than just reading the New York Times headlines. Of course, lindsey graham, who has been well up to speed on this well before the president ial campaign actually started. While both of them have moved toward speaking points, wrapping themselves in the flag, talking about the need for leadership, i think going a little farther than they really believe in recent days, have to, giveton nature and tone of the debate right now, i think both are pretty credible generally on Foreign Policy. Rose what about trump . Look, i mean, i have a hard time saying trump is credible on policy but he has no interest in talking about policy. I think the only person people say who is going to destroy trump is trump. Trump has become a phenomenon because hes interesting and captivating for the American Media and the american voter. He is getting boring. Thats what destroys trump. He has nothing new to say. Rose its repetitive. It got repetitive after three hours. I will be stunned if the next time you and i sit down at this table he still has the numbers he has now. Rose lets turn to the president of russia who really commanded, over the last week or ten days, by announcing that they had begun to send new weapons, new planes, tanks, antidefense systems and questions were raised about why he was doing it, how far he wanted to go. He essentially said it was because he wanted to contribute to terrorist to stop i. S. I. S. And, at the same time, support the assad government. Absolutely. Rose not because he likes assad that much but because he believes some kind of state is necessary, otherwise you have anarchy like libya. And if youre going to have a state, might as well have one you have control of. Rose he has control over it, you think . I think between he and the iranians. The iranians providing money and the russians providing the brute military force, i mean, assad was losing momentum, territory. Rose hes down to 25 25 of the territory. Thats when you start thinking of the potential of splits between the military, a palace coup, all the rest. And giving the willingness of other countries to step up bombing campaigns and engagement of support against i. S. I. S. Was itself growing. That meant the ability for the International Community suddenly takes serious seriously as opposed to focusing primarily on iraq. Meaning if the russians wanted to engage, this is the time to do so. Rose why do you think they did it at the time they did . Because assad was losing territory . He wasnt about to fall tomorrow but he was lose mog mental and territory. I think the second point was the iran deal was done so, suddenly, the russians and iranians together can play geopolitics in a way that was going to be difficult when we were still trying to get that over rose what role do the iranians play. The iranians after the russians are the most important supporters of the assad regime and can providety financing. Rose thats what theyre doing . Glee an rose and will thae from the sanctions 100 billion is useful. Im not following the checks, now question it will create more flexibility for iran. Rose the interesting thing in russia yesterday was benjamin netanyahu. Theyre concerned about what their intention might be and how it might conflict with what israels intention was. I think more importantly it was that the israelis have historically been willing to attack the syrians on a dime. When they see a threat they go in and quickly and the last thing they want to do is hit a russian so they want to make sure they have communicationons that. Those communications militarytomilitary was set up before netanyahus trip and netanyahu is basically solidifying it. So they feel comfortable with rose that communication is taking place between the United States and russia. More recently. Its tough for the americans because heres what putins done. Putin understands the europeans are more concerned about syria and the refugee crisis than ukraine. Rose hes please bid that. Very pleased by it and youve noticed that the cease fire in ukraine now has miracle of miracles actually held for the last four weeks. I dont think that is coincidental. I think putin has given the word on the ground to those fighting in favor of the separatists saying lets keep ukraine quiet, lets get rid of the sanctions, and we can push the americans on syria now. We have some space. I think putin has played this masterfully and the americans who said consistently that Bashar Alassad must go are now saying Bashar Alassad must go but were flexible on timing. Rose that would be john kerry saying that . That would be john kerry but also the white house broadly and heres the point, with edont have the willingness to put the force in place to remove assad ourselves, and no one else is going to do it for us, so russia is going to be calling the tune. Rose putin fears what might happen if assad with you not there. He fears some kind of anarchy like you have in libya. A legitimate fear. Of course it is. Rose the number of jihadist and terrorist forces you have there. Sure. Rose and who would be in control and what kind of fight would you see in damascus. But do the russians fear it more than the germans fear it . More than the turks fear it . A lot of countries are worried, rightfully so, about syria falling apart. The russians are the ones geopolitically. He doesnt want casualties and that wouldnt go well in russia, but his Approval Ratings are well over 80 , and the economy and the currency which has been all over the place last year has stabilized. Rose notwithstanding oil prices and sanctions . Notwithstanding them because the russians have been able to take it. They have been cutting back on defense. Putin is going to be able to do it. We should not be setting red lines on syria again to the russians like we havent before with assad. Rose how do you think the u. S. Policy is evolving in. I think so we are reel reluctantly coming to understand that we are not going to make much progress in wars where we ultimately dont care nearly as much about the outcomes of the people were fighting. We learn that historically the hard way in vietnam, afghanistan, iraq, russia, ukraine and syria. The willingness of the americans to rose or, theres a flip side of that, if our enthusiasm for it is greater than the people we came to support right. Rose if. Yeah. Rose thats what you had in iraq. No question. But still at the end of the day, if we had known the size of the i. S. I. S. Threat, we never would have withdrawn as many troops as we did from that country. Rose from iraq . From iraq. Rose we would have negotiated harder for a better deal. Yes. Rose there is also the question of the iran nuclear deal. Sure. Rose is obviously going to be a reality. What impact do you think it will have . Its mixed. If you look at the media, it implies you either did this deal or it was war, you know. You and i both know thats very far from the truth. If we hadnt gotten the deal done the reality is much more prosaiic, it would have been a continued interim deal and more negotiations and kerry had spent an awful long time trying to get this done, people were very tired and it was difficult to get the two sides in agreement so even though we had to back off on important issues we decided on balancing. Rose it was p5 1 and is said in that is of congress the difference came from the democrats persuaded to stay with the president from all the Foreign Ministers from the p5 1 countries who came in and said this is the best deal that could be received, we did the best we could, a good deal and thats what convinced him. At least difference between the p5 1 and the europeans and the chinese. The willingness to push for the end, the premature end of the arms embargo against iran, the Ballistic Missiles and the rest, that was basically thrown into the mix by the russians at the last minute. The queens did not like that at all. Rose at the United Nations. At the United Nations. They did not like that at all, but the americans took it. Rose how upset is assad with the deal. Enormously, but they realize they dont have allies on the deal except israel who they dont publicly talk to so they have to get over themselves. Rose let me talk about the two places, one brazil. Whats going to happen to the president . I dont think shell get impeached because i dont see the support in the Brazilian Congress to make that happen and i dont think the investigation process will turn up that shes done anything directly illegal, but her Approval Ratings are through the floor. Rose why . They blame here because, number one, you dont want to be running brazil when the economy is doing so badly and, number two, this investigation has hit everybody close to her in her party. Just draining down more and more and more. Its as if you were doing an investigation in illinois and saying were taking out everyone whos corrupt whos left governing the place. Near term, the scale of this Corruption Campaign is a mess. You see now the brazilian morale is his torque the brazilian rialis at his torque lows. Shes not getting impeached. Theres no end in sight for the investigation. Another 12, 18 months the brazilian economy will look weak indeed. Rose what about the victory of Alexis Tsipras in greece . Shouldnt with b a surprise. Syriza has been