Given where donald trump has been the question is, is he going to get enough delegates to get the nomination or will he go to the convention with maybe a lead in the delegates but have been stopped. Lets walk through some of the scenarios. First, in ohio and florida lets say trump wins both, whats next . I think he becomes all he would have to do from there with the delegate lead in hand coming out of tuesday is keep winning and keep winning delegates. At the same pace at which he has been. I think the map ahead actually favors him in his ability to do that because you look at the states coming up and they have more of the kind of voters that donald trump has already been winning you get your blue collar republicans. Youve got your suburban republicans, hes been doing well with those groups and fewer of the kind of voters in the kind of areas that ted cruz has been winning. Were headed through the northeast. Were headed through the west. Pennsylvania, new york, et cetera. That should advantage trump in being able to keep that pace. Dickerson if he wins those two states it will suggest all these attacks against him that theyre just not working and so they be unlikely to suddenly work in the remaining states. Lets now look at beginning of glimmers of hope which to say that trump loses one of those two states. What does it look like then if he only wins one of those . I think that is a glimmer of hope for folks trying to catch him. But it depends also who he loses to. If he loses to kasich in ohio, that is very competitive race be seen thats a home state win for kasich but where else does he go. Kasich still trailing him in delegates. Rubio happens to catch him in florida, same thing. Rubio is going to be behind him in delegates probably will be coming out of the tuesday. Other thing that the rules Going Forward from these states actually advantage the winner to even greater degree than they already have. They hand out more winner take all delegates, even by region or district and so the difference between the leading candidate and the trailing candidates actually historically tends to open up. Dickerson so in that case, if trump only won one of those, he would have to do a little bit better than hes doing to get the magic number . Hed have to pick up the pace a little bit. Have to pick up the pace, just a little bit. Because he coop that lead. Now, if he does and heads into places like pennsylvania like new york those other states then tries to build on that lead, he wouldnt get there quickly, it might go deep into may but he would still be on a trajectory to get there. Dickerson quickly he loses both what happens then . He loses both, thats a lot of people want to stop him try to at the convention i think. There is at least one advantage out of this. Voters do tend to try to wrap things up as we get deep into the process, do tend to try to consolidate. But if he loses both then some of that luster of being a winner certainly comes off. He certainly has tougher road ahead because, lets not forget other states voting, north carolina, the missouri, if ted cruz were touchier repick a couple of those, now cruz could make up some of the difference. Dickerson cruz is closest to him at the delegates. So lets not forget those, they have more in total just that were focusing on ohio and florida, rightly because theyre the big winner take all prizes but theres lot more delegates out there. Watch for cruz to try and at least cut in to that trump lead and if trump does happen to drop both ohio and florida now we get competitive. Now we could this thing go deep into june. Dickerson well, well be asking you all the way along the way, anthony, thank for helping us out. Well be right back. Yeah, i was just talking uhabout yourico . Emergency Roadside Service and how its available 24 7 and then our car overheated. What are the chances . Can you send a tow truck please . Uh, the location . Youre not going to believe this but its um. Its in a tree. I wish i was joking, mate, but its literally stuck in a tree. car horn honking a chainsaw . No, no, all we really need is a tow truck. Day or night, geicos emergency Roadside Service is there for you. Theand to help you accelerate,. Weve created a new company. One totally focused on whats next for your business. The True Partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. Accelerating innovation. Accelerating transformation. Accelerating next. Hewlett packard enterprise. Dickerson were back with our panel. Peggy noonan a columnist for the wall street journal. Jeffrey goldberg writes for the atlantic. And nancy cordes covers congress. And democratic president ial candidates for cbs and Michael Duffy is the Deputy Managing Editor time magazine. Peggy, what do we make of [ laughter ] lot to go here. What do you make of the rallies in the last couple of days and how much has donald trump contributed or not contributed to this at all. Seeing the past few days, especially last night in chicago, the disruption, the yelling, the pushing, the violence surrounding the donald trump rally and inside, even though he wasnt there he cancelled he said for safety reasons. I think there are two big reasons this is happening and one victim group ha hasnt been mentioned. Two reasons its happening, trump is cavalier and careless in his references to punch him in the nose. I wish i could punch him in the nose. If you punch him in the nose ill pay your bills. Thats been. Thats immature. Thats not knowing that america is always a country when its gathered and political passions can start throwing punches. Thats the first part. Second part is, there are antitrump groups that are opportunistically moving on the fact that hes given them this opening with his wild statements. They are coming in. Theyre causing their own havoc and pushing people around. Thats not good. We always have to remember, this is america, you have a right to come together. You have right to have rally, right to free speech to gather. It zooms to me a forgotten victim group here is the peaceful people who want to go see donald trump and get him unfiltered get a sense of who he is, decide who theyre going to vote for. They must have been frightened last night. They saw people pushing and tearing plaque cards out of each others hands, its auto bad. I know people have gone to trump rallies, they are curious want to get a look. Dickerson the Washington Post has a question, has donald trump lit a fire that now cant be contained. What is your sense of that . Containment not word that anyone would use to describe this election so far i dont think we should start expecting. But i dont think any of us know watching that tape offer the weekend, all of the tapes, seems to be new one every couple of hours, reminded of we all live in different places now. Its odd that were now deciding to come together at trump rallies. That seems like maybe not the best place. That the country needed nor 20 years thats whats happening. Two basically frightened groups of people. The Trump Supporters are scared of losing their livelihood and not really familiar yet, fully maybe owning what we call multiraral society. Theyre concerned about the second amendment. The protesters who are generally nonwhite come from different part of the country and are concerned about how will the rhetoric of donald trump is spewing help themselves and their kids assimilate. Both sets of real genuine fears. They are being met at these rallies, that is a scary combination. Dickerson a volatile pace. Donald trump suggested there may be new Meeting Place for these two groups at the Bernie Sanders rallies. Going to send over to that was, i thought maybe wed be deescalation, im naive, obviously. I didnt read the tweet first i got email from a friend of mine in egypt who told me about the tweet, be careful bernie or my supporters will to go your rallies. And my friend from egypt set, welcome to the middle east. Because this is the way politics is done in other parts of the world. We dont like the way politics is done where people are sending gangs of their supporters to other peoples rallies to break them up and make violence. There is a real fear now that these things are going to escalate. People are meeting at these rallies, someone is going to get seriously hurt and among other things were not modeling Good Behavior for the rest of the world that looks to america for political maturity. As peggy might put it that would be bad. Gone to number of Bernie Sanders rallies they are pretty Peaceful Affairs like eagles concert where Everybody Knows the words. And they show up ready to sing. Thats a great analogy as well theyre bringing lot of these little kids because these are pretty laid back affairs. Suddenly you have them clashing with fired up Trump Supporters. That could be dickerson may be losing ourselves in the metaphor. Jeffrey mentioned decays lakes which we had seen earlier in the week there was debate that looked like everybody john kasich mentioned thought they were all pretending to be him, so nice and civil. What did you make that have . Well, the calm before the storm, among some of the candidates together they could not continue down the road that previous debate had been just out of control. But then they go back to their separate Campaign Events people say things they shouldnt say. Trump followed that with that remarkable line about islam hates us which was within 24 hours of the debate. That was astonishingly incendiary reckless thing to say, add that were going to need someone lot more sensitive to that kind of way of speaking as leader whether youre nominated or not. Reminder that some republicans according to do expect prudent talk about religion they prefer it. Its just going to be something that we have to live with i think with trump until he decides, whatever reason to change the way hes campaigning. Two quick points, there is regret, i think on the part of marco rubio that he accelerated that process by responding. The other thought i was having last couple of days is that, wondering who is the senior figure, who could straddle all is it colin powell who needs to come out simply say, you know, what we simply cannot talk about, for instance, is islam, the way were talking about it in this campaign because this is dangerous for the united states. And i dont know who that figure or group of figures is, but theres kind of need for it at this point. Dickerson i dont know if that person exists, peggy, because that person would be in the establishment, or be that immediately makes them suspect to all of the people who are creating the energy in the party. It would have to be a person of grave respect to the left, right and middle would listen to knowing they werent pursuing an agenda but trying to look out for america. Weve torn so many people institutions down in past few decade im not sure who that would be. Let me throw question to you, mike, some times when trump says things like, islam is our enemy or whatever exactly it is that he said. Islam hates us. Does he know what hes saying . I mean, he could say, look, there is a portion of radical jihaddist growing islam which has appealed to young people which is violent they appear to hate us, you cant just say islam hates us. So imprecise i think hes intelligent many doesnt he say it the right way . The question youve asked in your column, what does he really think. Ben carson when he endorsed trump something i dont think all of us would have predicted there are two donald trumps, no, there are about 22. Or maybe 200. Right after yes, there are two trumps there seem to be two trumps about the question of whether there were two trumps. Hes such a salesman. Hes talking now about unifying the party. I think hes done so much damage with his rhetoric no matter how much vodka you put on the dias going to be hard to unify the party around him as he continues to i think its interesting that marco rubio starting to say that the things that trump had said are making it more difficult for him to continue right at the glenn that he will support the nominee. The problem for him is, what does that mean if you dont support republican nominee that means you support Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton or sit it out what does that mean for all of your Republican Senate and house candidates and everybody down the ballot in november. Dickerson that sense of unpredictability. You mentioned marco rubio, lets watch, actually, a moment of anguish of marco rubio talking about this. I mean, i already talked about the fact Hillary Clinton would be terrible for this country. But the fact that youre even asking me that question, i still at this moment continue to intend to support the republican nominee. But getting harder ever day. Harder ever day. That was real moment. That was a real dickerson whether hell support donald trump. That seemed like a real moment of hes ashen. Real moment of anguish. And i would based on that im led to believe that he could not in good conscious support donald trump. Not do a chris christie. Theyre all thinking about november and their v but thinking about their own reputations beyond november. Like to think that theyre also like to think its their own souls in america. Theyre trying to figure out what is the best thing to do here. I thought marco rubio looked shocked by history. Sort of ashen indeed, and just surprised at how things are turning out. Were all surprised been history at the moment. Dickerson lets switch to democratic history. Nancy, what happened in mr. Mesh, how big a deal that sanders beat clinton . Put a dent in her inevitability and shift gears starting to using on the general election. Have to spend more money than she probably wanted to in these primary states. It showed that the issue of trade is bigger than probably even the Clinton Campaign thought it was. In a manufacturing state like michigan and that is really a centerpiece of the Bernie Sanders campaign that free trade is killing jobs. She also focused in michigan as she has in other states in boosting African American turn out and its true she did very well among African Americans but no, sir well where she wins like 09 of African Americans, there arent enough African Americans in the state like michigan to put her over the top. She lost 30 of African Americans in michigan which is a danger point number for her particularly as democratic races go north and to the midwest to the west coast because nonwhite populations are much smaller there. Nancy mentioned these states are going to be more friendly to more liberal candidate. Your poll fascinating, sappedders is ahead in her home state. How people are going to win their home states. The polls had her 20 up in michigan still lost. You also made the point that sanders lives off the land. He can go and go and go. This is not a high cost. We may have gotten to the point this week that democratic race is beginning to elongate. Is she really, however, im curious, is mrs. Clinton really scared right now or is this just a pain in the neck that shes going to have to play out . Is she scared . I cant speak to her state of mind. But shes clearly insider in year that is so favoring outsiders. And when you have trump and sanders threatening dont forget about her experience. She must be getting sick of the more frustrated than scared. Youre right. She said this week ive gone all the way to the end before so i can do it again but its clearly not the way that she would hope that this would dickerson not message of joy. Thanks to all of you. Jeffrey will stay with us to talk about his interview with president obama so please stay with us. Dickerson were back with Jeffrey Goldberg of of the atlantic who has cover story in this months magazine, amazing piece. I want to start with talking about president obama and Foreign Policy legacy. The red line on syria is considered by some people even senior people in his own administration, a big mistake. He sees it as the opposite. Right. He sees it as very proud moment. Because he didnt do the thing that everybody in the establishment all of our allies wanted to do which was attack syria, to punish for crewing chemical weapons. He sees syria as the biggest slippery slope there is, and its a moment when he now tells himself and tells me that hes proud that have because he resisted all of the people pushing him to go have war with syria. Dickerson does he what about having said it out loud does he at acknowledge that that maybe wasnt such a great idea because ultimately he didnt he doesnt regret or didnt say that he regrets it he thought it was appropriate brush back pitch, what i think hes learned dont make these kind of statements unless youre going to carry it through. Thats was the big says lest son i think for him. Dickerson also talk about free riders. We hear this term or i hear this term lot explain iowa free riders are that concept. Flee riders are american allies, mainly europe and middle east, who expect america to do everything for them. Dont pay enough of their own share of defense and dont defend themselves and just expecting america to do everything. President obama has, like a lot of americans, some level of resentmentment and he talks about arab states wanting to bring america into all of their wars against Iranian Opposition and sort much says, why do we have to do all this. Traditionally americans have looked at europe said, you guys need to pay more for your defense. Its a very american position hes taking, by the way, on this question. Dickerson in the gulf states youre saying what theyre saying is, would you deal with iran for us, take care of it for us . Right. Theres some this feeling they want us to be their muscle. Were having a fight in yemen and syria, youre the big guy. You just deal with it for us well hold your coat and you go fight. I think president obama is a guy who is not looking for new fights for america and the world. Dickerson is that connected to another phrase, i feel like were going through the phrases of the obama Foreign