The president ial nomination. Finally. Sam are we looking at a ticking timebomb . Sarah anzia yes. Sam tension over californias pension deficit. More than a million workers all owed money california might not have. Now, a recent report rings the alarm. We look for the answers and get to the truth in tonights reality check. And good evening, and thank you for joining us for this special edition of reality check. Im sam brock. With the political season now moving fullthrottle, and candidate claims coming from every corner of the stage, well take you behind the top statements and fact check the substance of their words using hard data and expert analysis to get to the truth. And tonight, we start with whos pulling the strings, voters or political insiders . Its a part of the nominating process that hasnt gotten much attention until now, superdelegates. Sanders supporters claim those superdelegates could swing the outcome of this race, handing a tight contest to Hillary Clinton. Now, for some background. Superdelegates are still delegates. The key difference with this group, they are unpledged or not bound by the popular vote. This year, democrats have 712 superdelegates, or about 15 of all delegates. Its a group made up of all democratic members of the congress, sitting governors, some former governors, state National Party leaders, and vip. Melinda the superdelegates really are there to allow the party to put their thumb on the scale at the end of the day, and to influence the Party Establishment will about who the candidate should be. Sam but political scientist Melinda Jackson told us superdelegates dont generally decide nominations. In fact, they can flip their support if its out of tune with what voters want. Melinda and the superdelegates get to choose which candidate to support, and they can change their mind, so they are unpledged up to the point of the convention. Sam in an oped called confessions of a superdelegate, former New HampshireDemocratic Party chair Kathy Sullivan echoes this point. She writes, quote, the superdelegates have never been the deciding votes in the nominating process. Our goal is to elect democrats to office; nothing more, nothing less. Bernie sanders supporters have created petitions chockfull of hundreds of thousands of signatures calling on superdelegates to support the person with the most votes. And the reality . History says theyll go with the candidate commanding the most votes, whether its the vermont senator or the former secretary of state. Sanders should know. He is, after all, a superdelegate. Now, from Party Politics to a political tug of war over the Supreme Court vacancy. Justice scalias passing produced a flood of claims about who should appoint his successor. With democrats and republicans both crying foul over proper procedure, we consulted the constitution for answers. The Supreme Court chambers are a little emptier than normal, and dc darkened by the death of a great legal mind, Justice Antonin Scalia. That much both parties agree on. Donald trump its called delay, delay, delay. Sam but when it comes to nominating his successor, the groups claims contradict. Barack obama theres no unwritten law that says that it can only be done on offyears. Thats not in the constitutional text. Marco and both parties have followed this president. There comes a point in the last year of the president , especially in their second term, where you stop nominating becauseor you stop the advise and consent processes. Sam senator marco rubio is talking about this clause in the constitution, article ii, section ii, which does talk about the president s right to nominate and the senates duty to deliver advice and consent on a Supreme Court nominee. But is there a time limit on either, as rubio suggests . Pratheepan gulasekaram yeah, and that is political theater, all right . Sam Pratheepan Gulasekaram is a constitutional law professor at santa clara university, who says rubios claim is false. Pratheepan but there is absolutely no restriction on the ability of a president to nominate somebody even with one month left in his term, other than the practicalities of actually being able to finish that process. Sam now, its true that judicial nominations this late in a president s term are not common. Ted cruz were not going to give up the us Supreme Court for a generation by allowing barack obama to make one more liberal appointee. Sam conservatives like senator ted cruz claim the Court Majority could swing on the kind of confirmation that hasnt occurred in decades. The rightleaning Heritage Foundation in dc echoes cruzs concern. Hans von spakovsky if you look at the last 80 years, the precedent on the senate under both parties has been that they wont confirm a nominee for the Supreme Court whether the vacancy occurs in an election year. Sam the basic idea expressed here is true. The 80year claim is not. In 1968, lyndon b. Johnson nominated a justice in the final year of his presidency. That bid failed. In 1987, Ronald Reagan nominated Justice Anthony kennedy, who was confirmed in 1988, the final year of reagans presidency. Barack obama i plan to fulfill my Constitutional Responsibilities to nominate a successor in due time. Sam and president obama is insisting the senate fulfill its responsibility for a timely vote. But this claim too rings hollow, as the constitution does not contain a clause for a Timely Senate hearing or vote. Theyre not violating any part of the constitution by holding up the process. Pratheepan no, theres no provision that would prevent them from doing it. But its more a question of whether we want a constitutional culture in which the justices of the Supreme Court or the nomination process can be subject to these parties and whims. Sam and both parties are pushing their agenda, but the truth is neither side is breaking any formal rules. But the logistics tell a pretty interesting story. The longest wait for a Supreme Court candidate in us history from nomination to vote is 125 days. President obama has 294 days left in his term. Okay, moving aside the history books and onto the here and now. Up next, the vacancy on the Supreme Court could look gaping if it leads to new law. We measure the impact of an eight justice bench on issues like abortion and immigration, which the court takes on this term. Plus. Female the underfunding of Public Pensions is actually one of the biggest policy problems facing the state of california, and the nation actually. Sam a pension shortfall ready to rob the golden state of precious resources. We investigate claims that paying californias pension debt could come out of your wallet. [music] hush my darling. Dont fear my darling. The lion sleeps tonight. [snoring. ] hush my darling. [snoring. ] dont fear my darling. The lion sleeps tonight. [snoring. ] take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. Sam welcome back. As arguments boil over on the nomination of a new Supreme Court justice, were in the middle of the high courts term. And the court, down to eight judges, could lock horns four to four on critical cases. Since a split cannot establish judicial precedent, we wanted to find out what happens to red hot issues right now before the Supreme Court. The Supreme Courts docket this term is loaded with divisive issues, like a texas law requiring abortion clinics to meet the same medical standards as hospitals. Pratheepan these are cases that it is highly likely that having an eightjustice court is going to make a significant difference. Sam constitutional law expert Pratheepan Gulasekaram says the loss of conservative Justice Antonin Scalia could force this case, and other battleground issues, to a tie vote. Pratheepan and that means that the case itself at the Supreme Court level has no precedential value. But the lower court holding, or the highest federal court as you said, that heard the case, that ruling is going to stick. Sam that means in the event of a tie, the texas abortion law would stay since a Us Circuit Court upheld it. Texas clinics providing abortions would get slashed from 40 to about 10. Meantime, theres another marquee texas case before the court. Barack obama youll be able to apply to stay in this country temporarily without fear of deportation. Sam United States v. Texas challenges the president s executive action on immigration, a series of measures shielding as many as 5 million undocumented immigrants from deportation. A Supreme Court tie again reverts back to the circuit court, which in this case put a freeze on the president s program. Female i hope the court rules that a students race and ethnicity should not be considered when applying to the university of texas. Sam an upcoming decision on affirmative action would not end in a split because Justice Elena kagan is recused. That leaves only seven judges, and the most likely scenario is the four conservative justices establish a new precedent banning affirmative action. Finally, the Affordable Care act and Birth Control drugs, yet another aca case before the court. Actually, seven cases all rolled into one, challenging the ability of religious nonprofits like schools or hospitals to not only opt out of contraceptive coverage, but also prevent third parties from offering the same coverage to affected women. In this instance, a tie would force all seven cases back to the lower courts, where the decisions have been mixed. Pratheepan you might be left with a patchwork of, you know, in some circuits this is the rule, and other circuits this is the rule. Sam gulasekaram says this inconsistent application of the law could prove troublesome. Pratheepan but this isthis is some of the difficulties that occur when you have a vacancy come up and theres the possibility of not filling that vacancy for a very long time. Sam and an update now. The Supreme Court heard the texas Abortion Case last week, considered by many justice experts to be one of the most important of its kind in a generation. Were going to continue to follow the latest developments and bring you analysis. In the meantime, the Political Races still steamrolling right along, and fireworks on super tuesday. When the smoke cleared, donald trump scooped up 7 out of 11 states, proving to the establishment that he is a force to be reckoned with. As Republican Leaders scurry in search of a backup plan, anything they can muster to displace trump, the question remains, can he be stopped . The trump train is officially roaring fulltilt after banking in seven more states on super tuesday. Can anything derail his track to the nomination . Is it fair to say that the Republican Party is ready to pull out all of the stops to try to take out trump . Bill whalen is there a Nuclear Option within the Republican Party for stopping trump . And i think yes, there is a Nuclear Option, which is to try to deny him 1,237 delegates, the number he needs to win on the first ballot in cleveland. Sam hoover fellow bill whalen is talking about a game of delegate keepaway. Trump only has about a quarter of the pledged delegates that he needs to seal up a nomination. Ted cruz for the candidates who have not yet won a state, who have not racked up significant delegates sam the prevailing republican strategy is to consolidate the field, forcing trump to go head to head with either ted cruz or marco rubio. Except whalen explains that polling shows that that would backfire. Bill and they posed hypotheticals of trump vs. Rubio, and trump vs. Cruz. Trump beat rubio by i think 6 points, he beat cruz by 13 points, so the narrative of trump loses in a head to head to either of those two doesnt necessarily pan out. Donald trump delay, delay, delay. Sam if republicans want to delay until cleveland, keep this in mind. March 15th is the real super tuesday. Thats when florida and ohio vote. Throw in new jersey on june 7th and thats three winner take all states. And if trump takes all three, its game over. The reality is rubio and cruz need to stay in the race, and hope that one can carry a crucial winner take all primary, or else it will be Donald Trump Holding the trump card. So, lets play the hypothetical here. If the gop manages to keep the donald from getting enough delegates, it likely means a brokered convention in cleveland this summer. Republicans have not engineered one of those in over 60 years, dating all the way back to 1948 and the nomination of thomas e. Dewey. Coming up next, were tracking some president ial history, and look at primary elections through the years as we fact check the claim that a top finish in New Hampshire guarantees a president ial nomination. Plus. Paul nyhof and so, when i think about if i retire in 30, 34 years, am iis that money going to be there . Its a real concern not just for me, but other teachers ive talked to. Sam Public Employees unnerved over their pensions. We analyze an alarming new report, which finds californias crushing pension debt will fall on taxpayers shoulders. A flurry of claims come out of each primary election, in case you didnt notice. But heres a headliner. Since world war ii, the first or second place winner in New Hampshire has gone on to win the gop nomination. Is that true . Actually, yes. And typically, its the winner who seals up the nomination. Since 1948, when thomas e. Dewey decimated his competition and won the New Hampshire primary, every single first place finisher, except for 3 highlighted in red there on your screen, represented the republicans in november. Other candidates who kept up that trend dwight eisenhower, richard nixon, Ronald Reagan, and most recently mitt romney. Surely a positive sign statistically for donald trump that in the modern era, 82 of the time, the New Hampshire winner captures the gop nomination. As for the democratic side. Hillary clinton its not whether you get knocked down that matters. Its whether you get back up. Sam and Hillary Clinton should like her chances of holding on to front runner status. Since 1972, a candidate who finished in the top two in New Hampshire represented democrats in the fall. But this time, its closer to an even split, seven Granite State winners versus four runnerups have captured that nomination. But in 2012, when barack obama won New Hampshire, he was already the presumptive nominee. So, in the last truly contested New Hampshire primary back in 2008, hillary won. So, its possible the former secretary of state could find more success as the secondplace finisher this year. And if the Historical Data tells any story, its this. Hillary clinton stands a better chance of grabbing that final spot on your ballot than New Hampshires republican runnerup, john kasich. Okay, how about our chances now of keeping california pensions afloat . Up next. Sarah there isnt enough money set aside to pay for the benefits that have been promised to government employees. Sam building tension over pensions, the truth behind alarming claims about Retirement Funds for more than a million california Public Employees. [music] sam sounding the alarm on pensions, that is the topic of a new report claiming that our states pension debt is unsustainably high, and bound to fall on our shoulders, specifically california taxpayers. We crunch the numbers to explore whether you and i are facing a looming crisis. Hanging on the horizon, an issue that could affect playgrounds, parks, and Police Forces all over california. Pension liabilities, primed to rob our states piggy bank. At least, thats the alarming claim coming from the rightleaning Pacific Research institute, which just authored this report, californias pension crowdout. Wayne winegarden how fast is the boat sinking . Sam author Wayne Winegarden says its time to ring the bell on this issue. Wayne we need to accept that there are these costs, and we need to address it, and not just ignore it and pretend its not there. Sam the costs are pension payouts and Healthcare Benefits owed to more than a million Public Workers in california. Today, were about 170 billion