calling that leaning hillary clinton. in wisconsin, cbs news estimates the edge goes to donald trump. in the state of arizona, cbs news is calling this a toss-up at this hour. in michigan, also a toss-up at this hour. and new hampshire, a toss- we have in pennsylvania, let's not forget about the keystone state, also a toss-up. >> wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania, it's all the same story. the rural vote is coming in for donald trump. it's coming in, not a huge amount in each county, but the counties they all do add up, and the clinton people and democrats are hoping on their big countyezs. and that's true in wisconsin, michigan, and peb pen. in new hampshire, that's not the case. throughout the state. >> wisconsin and michigan were two states that voted -- last time they vote republicans was in the 80, even though several republicans tried to make those contests states in the past. the last time they went for republicans in want 80s. hillary clinton hasn't been to wisconsin during the general election at all. she may be regretting that tonight. >> wisconsin has been a very close state but has-- it's part of the democratic wall. and, you know, now they're going-- when we do on tho campaign, democrats are going to say, you know, why didn't she spend more time there? you know, in michigan, barack obama didn't go back after july, and they must thought it would be equally as durable for them. >> pelley: and charlie rose is standing by now with our political panel. charlie. >> i'm here with peggy noonan, and jamelle bouie, and ben dominic. tell me what you think is happening here because it is within 26 votes of donald trump having 270. >> all right. it is, to my mind, what i think i'm seeing is a kind of uprising, a kind of revolt, a kind of push-back. against the elites, the establishments of both parties. there is a sense of-- there's protected people in america, and unprotected people, and the unprotected just pushed back in a way that strikes me as deeply historic.>> elections, a movement, and the fact they are backing mr. trump when they don't necessarily back him personally. it says it's a movement. >> after the civil war there was reconstruction. and reconstruction, black americans and black americans attempted to build a new kind of south. what happened after reconstruction was angry recalcitrant whites pushed back. they retook their governments and we had redemption, and it lasted up until the 20th century. we had a second reconstruction and we had a backlash to that reconstruction. i think the extent to which crump has won, winning a campaign of racism and bigotry, turning out millions of white americans for that campaign, suggests we are living through a kind of second redemption, a push-back against the advance advancement. >> i think it's a push-back and pac lash but i think it's about something that is much more longer running than race. i think elet's of both of our political parties. in the past-- no, i think that it's-- it's longer running than merely a reaction to the election of the first black american president. i think it's much more about a reaction to the fact that we had, under bush and obama, policies that did not benefit these people. that they did not see as benefiting themselves. and i think they're rejecting both of those party elites. i think that's why trump came along and was able to take over the republican party with a message that was very unrepublican. >> we're looking at unified among working class whites. i don't think this is just a question of poor economic policy for working class whites. >> but clearly they're dissatisfied with the obama agenda, and it's something they don't view as satisfying their needs. barack obama expanded medicaid dramatically, and a lot of these white working class communities, under the idea it would both help them but give them a vested interest in re-electing the democratic party. this is the "what's the matter with kansas" problem. clearly that didn't work. in the white house tonight? the president of the united states will, if trends continue, if mr. trump is elected tonight, i think experience this as a rebuke, as america almost saying, "we thought you'd bring us together. you didn't. and now we've taken the surprising decision and really kind of confounded political history." >> reporter: let us say very donald trump is in the lead. he needs 26 more electoral vote to get to 270. he is not there. there are too many undecideds right now, nor is hillary clinton. take it back now to scott and norah. >> pelley: charlie, thank you. let's take a quick look at exactly where the race stands right now. let's have a look at the electoral college map. charlie just mentioned that donald trump has 244, not far shy of the 270 needed to win. there, 209. the blue states we've estimated for clinton, the red states we have estimated for donald trump. the states in white are the ones that are still too close to call. >> we want to go now to wisconsin, because cbs news has a new estimate. we are saying that wisconsin is now leaning donald trump. >> pelley: bob schieffer, what does that mean? closer than he was. if he wins and pennsylvania and anything else, basically-- pennsylvania, wisconsin, or pennsylvania and michigan, pennsylvania and iowa, that would him to 270. yeah, i. >> if he wins wisconsin, and arizona behaves as it is supposed to, then it's at the end of his fintertips. he can do it with michigan, pennsylvania, new hampshire, maine, so it's-- his path-- those six conway was talking about earlier tonight, he has six paths. >> he already has gotten iowa. i miscalled that. >> pelley: what would hillary clinton have to do to win at this point? >> she would have to have her big population centers come in, in michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, and then if she loses wisconsin, she'd have to win michigan, pennsylvania, new hampshire, and maine to hold him off. >> pelley: she would nearly need to sweep the table. >> yeah. >> pelley: but she has a shot. >> that's true. >> 61 away. she only needs 61. so-- >> and her shot is the urban vote coming in, and she does better than expected. >> yes. at the moment it looks like it's not-- i mean, it looks like it's going to be-- she has a better chance of doing that in michigan than wisconsin. i mean heft shot, of course, would be to hold all those states, wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania, but that does not look like it will happen. >> i don't think she can win without pennsylvania. let's take a look at pennsylvania because pennsylvania is electoral votes, and with just about qorp% of the vote, 84% of the vote in-- or more, i can't see that far-- based on my computer, 90% of the vote in, it is neck and neck, according to what i'm seeing. we're talking about a vote difference of just about 10,000. >> pelley: out of five million cast. >> out of five million cast. >> yeah, and she had been ahead in the numbers. so this is-- if you're a clinton person watching this, the now, there's still some out in bucks county, which is a county that can bring in some more votes. but you're not-- you want the numbers t to be going in the otr direction. >> one of the big surprises of the night is wisconsin. >> pelley: absolutely, and anthony mason is looking at the exit poll information that we've accumulated in wisconsin. anthony, what is it telling us? >> yes, scott, disappointing trends for democrats in wisconsin. first among young people. hillary clinton is winning young people, 46% to 39%. but four years 60% of young people in wisconsin. as you can see, 11% of this has bled to third-party candidates, but a serious underperform asbestos here by hillary clinton among young voters and also among independent voters. barack obama won independents by two point in wisconsin four years ago, donald trump is winning them by five points today. and again, third-party candidates taking 10% of the vote there. so significant underperformance here for the democrats in these might be another factor that we haven't talked about, and that is it's a little bit intangible, but it's extremely rare for the american people to grant one party three terms in the white house in a row. it's very, very rare. >> it's only happened once, since the 22nd amendment in 1947. >> and that was reagan-reagan-bush. >> george herbert walker bush. the other thing in history that the clinton people were hoping for is traditionally presidential models when the approval rating of the prede is above 50%, it helps the incumbent party. president obama's approval rating is at 51, i think is the average. it's not helping. it particularly isn't helping in michigan, where the african american vote is not turning out enough to beat the trump insurgency. >> the very thing that peggy raised in your panel, charlie, she said i wonder what the white house singling tonight? even today, the president was on the phone calling radio stations in michigan, in pennsylvania, in congressional black caucus dinner where he gave a very impassioned plea and said i would be insulted -- it would be an insult to my legacy. at one point, even, when he was on the campaign trail said, listen, you know, if you care about what we've done in this white house, think of this as a vote for this to continue. and it seems tonight that voters are sending a very different message. >> they are sick of washington. they're sick of the establishment. washington he the last five or six years. >> do they like donald trump, bob? >> i think that's part of it. i think that's part of it. but i think mostly it's people are sick of nothing happening. >> it's also interesting that having the first woman president may not have been as powerful a factor in this circumstance as we might have imagined. >> is it a woman president, charlie, or is it that people just didn't want the woman president to be hillary clinton? because i think the country seemed to be ready fair woman president. you look at susan b. anthony's grave site today-- >> gray with that. yes, of course,. >> but back to-- but back to bob's point-- >> a moment to make history. >> when people were worried about donald trump's temperament and judgment, and i would talk to trump voters and say to them, "do you worry about his temperament and judgment?" and they said, "maybe but you know i don't care because i want the system dismantled. and if it's dismantled then we'll but the system's never worked for me so the nice ets and judgments never worked for me so let's try to disruption." >> i would like to see a businessman in the office to see what he can do. if his business is so successful, who knows what he can do for the country. >> pelley: at the rate of data is coming in at this point we may have a decision in this race in the next 30 minutes or so. you're looking at the in blurk hillary clinton. the states in red, donald trump. in the remaining state, donald trump has numeric leads in just about all of them. very slender leadses, maybe 10,000, 20,000 votes out of millions cast, but he does have slender leads in just about all of those remaining states. major garrett is at the trump watch party tonight. major. >> i'm sorry about this phenomenon that is playing out before the entire nation is the donald trump campaign and led always by donald trump, the single most important force within his campaign, him throughout, is that he can do this without the regular support of the republican establishment. he has been at odds with the speaker of the house, paul ryan. i've just been talking to senior house republicans who believe this will give ryan and trump care of, if in fact these trend lines continue and donald trump becomes president-elect of the united states. he fought with other senators, lindsey graham, who was a rifleav him. george w. bush didn't vote for him. george h.w. bush, we are told, did not vote for him. this estrangement trump had was always believed to be a weakness. he always believed it was a core strength and a manifestation of what he most represented to those who supported him from the very beginning, that he was against the structure of power as it existed in washington, and more importantly, how those voters who felt left behind by that power structure viewed it. one last thing about trump and this orientation to his supporters. if i heard one thing said about donald trump repeatedly in the 16 months i've been on the road, it's that this person, whatever his flaws, cannot be bought. pollsters for years and years and years they're frustrated about campaign finance or they think the system is someone corrupted by too much money, they decided to stop waiting for legislative remedies or a constitutional amendment. they just put someone or put their support behind someone who they believe, because of his wealth, and because of his understanding of the system having once been a donor but now an outsider of his own, couldn't bought and would really represent their interests and not anybody else's. >> pelley: major garrett really do a magce covering the trump campaign from day one. we're going to take a break but before we do, there's some more votes coming in, and they are the votes of wall street. have a look at the dow. they are down at this moment 840 points. that's almost 4.6%. those are the dow futures as they stand right now. we're going to be back in just a moment. we will break in with any late >> it is quite a night on this election night and we want to go straight to some of the battleground states. first, the keystone state of pennsylvania with more than 90% of the vote in, cbs news estimates that this is still a hillary clinton. in the state of michigan, with 70% of the vote in, you can see, look at that, just about 20,000 votes separate the two candidates. as to-up. and in wisconsin, with about almost 80% of the vote in, also just about 100,000 votes, less than 100,000 votes separating those two candidates. john. >> it's just amazing to watch these-- i mean, now, as i look at tit's about 2,000 votes that separates the two of them. >> pelley: out of five million cast. for those of you who sat at home thinking my vote doesn't count. wrong again. >> and so here we're watching this enormous country, all of this collective behavior, and it's coming down to, you know, a hand full of votes in these states to determine who the next president is. >> john, when senator al franken was here at the table, and he of he said he won his election by 312 votes. he said let that be a lesson, a warning to anybody who,s, "it doesn't make a difference if i go and vote." it's moments like this that show yes, it makes a big difference. >> the florida of 2000 is now pennsylvania. >> charlie rose is standing by with our election panel tonight. charlie. >> we're with michael gersen and michelle noris and ruth marcus. until it's over, we can't repeat that enough, but donald trump is leading in enough states to get him to 270. so i raise this question-- what if donald trump becomes president? >> well, people concerned about that need to remember that we have strong institutions in america, strong legislative branch, strong judicial branch, and a balance of power system where the president doesn't get to do everything he wants. although, he has tremendous power on the international stage, and this is someone who elected, may have actually helped to get elected. and someone that our alliance-- people in our alliance structure are very afraid about what's going to happen. he's going to have to reassure them. so there are going to be a lot, on the international side, a lot of immediate implications. >> reporter: michelle. >> you know, but there are checks and balances but if we have a republican in the white house and a republican senate and a republican house, you don't sort of have that modulating pressure, perhaps, on someone who is rewarded for being taught, who is rewarded per being piewj listic, who is elected by 25% of his supporters who said they cannot care for his judgment but they elected him anyway. can he bring people together and figure out how to deal with this deep, wide, roiling chasm that woo vein this country? >> so i want michael to be write about the resilience and strength of the other branches worried that he's not. why would we think that republicans in congress, who were not willing to denounce and reject donald trump when he said outrageous things about gold star families and mexican rapists and everything else, would be willing to reject him when he is inhabiting-- if he is-- the most powerful position in the land? yes, the courts exercise a check, but he is going to be able, if he is elected president, to nominate a replacement for antonin scalia and cement a the court. and he's awfully powerful in military affairs. >> reporter: thank you, ruth. there's so much more to come. we'll be right back after this . >> well, this is one kind of a night as we are waiting to announce the 45th president of the united states. a number of battleground states still in the toss-up column. we'll have much more as cbs news continues. and take a look at the numbers. scott. >> pelley: well, let's have a look at the electoral vote map once again. hillary clinton 209 electoral votes, donald trump 24, well within striking distance of the 270 he needs to become the 45th president of the united states. red states for trump, blue states for cli. that are just too close to call. this is really hinging now, folks, on pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, arizona, minnesota. there are several pathways now for donald trump to win this election. many fewer for hillary clinton. john dickerson. >> a couple thousand votes still in pennsylvania. it looks like wisconsin is between-- in the vote there is about 24,000 votes there in michigan. >> in favor of-- >> in favor of donald trump. so where it's wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania. >> let's talk about pennsylvania in particular, you noted, it looks like it is moving away from hillary clinton. >> pennsylvania is close. it's wisconsin that's moving away. >> okay. >> and wisconsin, it looks like donald trump is up by about 80-some-odd thousand votes. and the problem for hillary clinton you still have milwaukee county out, that's a heavily democratic area, but the question is can enough votes come in there? the way this night is going, to make up that deficit? >> pelley: all of these polls that we were look at going into election night showed hillary clinton or donald trump up by 2%, 3%, but that's all within the margin of error. it was always possible that this >> yes, but what seemed unlikely is that it would all-- each one would tip trump all the way through. so that's why when we have the big discussion about whether the pollsters got it all wrong or not, that's one area where maybe something was missed, and we'll have to see. >> so right now, john, it can go either way, but as you look at the map, what do you think is the likely outcome? >> well-- >> i realize it can go either way. >> but given the way the night has worked, given the places and been successful tonight and given what's left outstanding, wisconsin and pennsylvania look very jittery. i mean, and michigan, too. and so he's-- he's won a lot of the states that-- the flags have been tipping in his direction. so if that continues -- >> and there's arizona as well. >> arizona, which i don't think-- i think given the way the night is going, arizona will end up in his column. >> arizona and wisconsin could be 21. you only need five. the evening saying if donald trump wins, he's basically got to run the table of all those battleground states. now, hillary clinton has to run the table if she's going to win. >> with less room. >> she's 61 votes away. it's just-- everything this year is upside down. >> and, again, we've got-- while we're here waiting for the votes to come in, i mean this-- donald trump made an enormous gamble on basically assuming all the smart people in politics were totallyr gamble going down on his own, and this is an enormous thing that he has done. he bested 16 republicans in his primary. and he's run the table. running the table is not an easy thing to do. and that's waihee has debate so far. >> pelley: he was right, and we will have the rest of election night. we will be making an estimate about president of the united states probably in the next half ,, >> pelley: back now with campaign 2016 election night here on cbs. let's show you where the race is right now at this moment. we're going to go to the electoral college map. and as you can see on the ec clinton has 209 electoral college votes, donald trump 24,, well within striking distance of the 270 he needs to win. what's outstanding. pennsylvania. cbs news has not been able to make an estimate there. it's still a toss-up. look at that vote count. they are separated by 2,000 votes in pennsylvania after five