Dixon and im Ellie Costello, and this is breakfast on gb news. So we start with breaking news in the last hour or so, and israel has reportedly launched an attack on iran overnight in a retaliatory strike, with reports of explosions near a military base in isfahan and thats according to us officials. Yes. Iranian state media have been quick to downplay the situation, claiming their air Defence Systems were able to destroy three drones in the centre of the country. Now yet to get any official statement from israel on the attack. Well, meanwhile, the Australian Government has urged its citizens to leave israel over fears of a revenge attack by iran. Lets talk to our security editor , mark white, who joins us editor, mark white, who joins us now. Morning, mark. What do we know at this stage . Morning well, we are still waiting on any official word from israel as to what this attack was, whether, of course, it was israel. We suspect it was, as israel. We suspect it was, as its being widely reported by us media that the Israeli Government informed the Us Government informed the Us Government that they were about to launch these attacks, they seem to, from what we are hearing, be limited in nature. Air Defence Systems activated in a number of iranian provinces, including in estefan, that one of irans largest cities in central iran. It appears to be focused near an air base. We understand that the eighth, wing or fighter wing of the Iranian Air Force is based at an airbase. Theres a number of air bases in that area. Its also home to some of Irans Nuclear facilities, although theres no indication that any of those Nuclear Facilities were targeted. There are reports that some of irans drone manufacturing capability is based near estefan, so we await to see really just what has been targeted and what the damage has been. As you said in your introduction there, the Iranian State broadcaster has been downplaying these attacks, saying that they were easily deau saying that they were easily dealt with by irans , air dealt with by irans, air Defence Systems that managed to take out , three drones. But as take out, three drones. But as i say, were getting reports of some other explosions and activation of air Defence Systems in some other provinces as well. Mark, i mean, it is early. Its important to stress that. But from what we know so far, this isnt a strike on civilians. So for israel , given civilians. So for israel, given the range of options, this does seem to be on the lower end of the scale in terms of a response to what we saw on saturday night i no. And you wouldnt expect that israel would be striking civilian areas as such, if any strike that israel was to carry out would be aimed potentially at military regime targets, the possibility of Irans Nuclear systems, and certainly it makes sense if it is targeting the drone Manufacturing Capabilities as well, because of course , as well, because of course, there were 170 drones, at least, that were fired from iran towards israel on saturday night. And really since then, since 331 drones and cruise and Ballistic Missiles were taken down, not just by Israeli Forces , but also coalition partners. If you like , in the sense that if you like, in the sense that the us came to their aid. Also the us came to their aid. Also the uk, france and jordanian , the uk, france and jordanian, air force planes, as well as saudi arabia. So a number of saudi arabia. So a number of countries that intervened to help israel defend itself from those attacks. We had been waiting since those attacks took place on saturday night for the likely response from israel. We likely response from israel. We had heard, of course, from the uk government, the Us Government and others calling on israel, not to retaliate, to take the win effectively , no one ever win effectively, no one ever really thought that israel would not respond. And, to some not respond. And, to some extent, to this very significant attack on its soil will now it seems we have a response now , seems we have a response now, the big question here is, was this an initial, targeting of sites in iran to be followed up by further attacks . Was it always designed to be limited in nature , so as not to escalate nature, so as not to escalate the situation further, and any other response from israel may not be direct attacks on iran only in the hours ahead might tell that when we get some indication from the Israeli Government, they have said nothing. Thus far. That might be an indication that what they are planning is not over yet. I think from irans point of view, not only is their state broadcaster playing down this, but were also hearing that the Aviation Authority in iran has opened some of the airspace around some of the airports in the country. Again. So the mood the country. Again. So the mood music, i think coming from iran is a bit different from what they were seeing, really just hours ago when they were saying any attack from israel would be met with an immediate and massive response from iran. Well, there has been no Immediate Response from iran, thats for sure. Were not seeing any alerts over israel this morning, and its 8 00 in the morning in israel, and nothing yet. So, as i say, so much is unknown here, and we just have to wait and see when we finally get that confirmation from the Israeli Government as to what exactly they were intending here. Okay, mark, for now, thanks very much indeed. Lets talk to very much indeed. Lets talk to former british Army Spokesperson major mike shearer, who joins us now. Mike, can i get your assessment on what were seeing, particularly from iran in all of this . I mean, as mark was this . I mean, as mark was saying, theyre theyre playing it down. They appear to have reopened some airspace. I mean, is this a from an iranian perspective, are they trying to de escalate this a little bit rather than come back with that massive response . Theyve been threatening . Threatening . I think thats exactly right. I think israel has actually been very restrained in their response, you mentioned earlier that they didnt target, people. They didnt target the capital, esfahan, as some, four hours drive south of the capital. So theyve gone for a military installation. So i think israel, installation. So i think israel, despite what they will be saying , have listened to, the president of the us, they have tempered their response, whether or not they will do more, we will have to wait and see. But they didnt involve people, and i think thats important. You know, israel see every loss of innocent life as a tragedy. I innocent life as a tragedy. I think that iran and their proxies, like hamas, they see it as a strategy. So i think israel has been very restrained about their response. And i think therefore , iran can calm down on therefore, iran can calm down on therefore, iran can calm down on the back of that. The back of that. I mean, thats the question, isnt it . Because what really matters in all of this now is how the iranians will see all of this and what their response will be next. Well, thats right. They did say they would go hard as soon as there was a response. Well, that hasnt happened, but it is early hours. Lets just be clear early hours. Lets just be clear about that, they could be gathering their thoughts, but, i think the mood music as we see it is probably the de escalation is now occurring. Is now occurring. Well, that gives everyone a little bit of breathing space, doesnt it . And i mean, particularly countries like the United States, but also the uk, of course, because, you know, we have committed havent we, to doing what we can to protect israel should another strike come. Come. Well i think thats right. And i think it is time now for, the friends of israel, to come together and do whatever they can to shore up that response , can to shore up that response, that that safety blanket, if you like , i think the mealy mouthed like, i think the mealy mouthed words of were not going to be with you if you if you respond doesnt help anyone. I think people need to know where people stand on this. And lets be clear here, israel have been reactive on every occasion , reactive on every occasion, since the 7th of october, they havent been proactive. And on that basis alone, i think, the friends of israel really need to stand up now and do what they can, even if it even if it is only signalling, by word of mouth that we are with you and they should be. What do we know about Irans Nuclear program . And how concerned do you think we should be about that . If were going to be about that . If were going to be seeing for tat strikes taking place here . Well, i mean, this is very worrying. And its, esfahan is worrying. And its, esfahan is the centre of Irans Nuclear program. I would say that the world should be very worried if israel. I beg your pardon . If iran develop that nuclear, strength that can then threaten, nafion strength that can then threaten, nation states around the planet, so the fact that the fact that israel has made a strike on that sends out a signal, i think, and i think that, you know, the planet should be behind them, i dont think that the i think the saudis will be happy enough with that response. I think the other sunninafions that response. I think the other sunni nations like egypt , that response. I think the other sunni nations like egypt, oman, the uae and others, i think they will be reasonably, settled by, israels response this morning. Israels response this morning. Okay. Mike, shira, good to talk to you. Thank you very much indeed, lets try and get a us perspective on this, because obviously, the United States, a key player, a key ally of israel, a us political analyst, doctor roger gewolb joins us. Rogen doctor roger gewolb joins us. Roger, good to see you this morning. I mean, would you agree morning. I mean, would you agree with what major shira was saying there that it would seem, at least that israel has listened to what the white house has said, has listened to President Biden and has well, responded. But in a in a very tempered response. Yes, yes. Response. Yes, yes. Well, i dont think they particularly listened to joe biden or necessarily anyone else. I think theyve made their own decision, as mark said, we dont know what, if anything, is coming next, but this was a very measured response, and its more messaging ispahan, as the major said, is the home to the iranian Nuclear Program , in december, i, Nuclear Program, in december, i, along with a lot of other people, announced on American Television that iran was a week away from having a nuclear capability. So they must have that by now, and i think israel was sending a message in the second part of the message, stephen, was that, of course, isfahan is the home of the factory that made the drones that were flown at israel on saturday. So it was it was a very measured response, i think that the foreign minister of irans statement that any attack will be met by something much more massive needs to be paid attention to , analysts in attention to, analysts in america, such as the former director of national intelligence, feels that they will, retaliate disproportionately , and that the disproportionately, and that the messaging phase is over and there could very well be an escalation at this point. Roger, i understand from a senior us official is that the us had advanced warning of this strike, but they did say they didnt endorse the response. The didnt endorse the response. The us would be really, really careful now not to implicate themselves in any of this at all. Well, i think theyll probably be implicated anyway. Probably be implicated anyway. My probably be implicated anyway. My guess, my hunch. Is that the iranians will probably find some way to implicate them so that either directly or, more likely, through their proxies , the us through their proxies, the us military bases in iraq and syria become fair game, become , become fair game, become, targets. Now, at this point , i targets. Now, at this point, i mean, its do you think the International Community is Still Holding its breath . Holding its breath . Roger. After i mean, theres been so much concern about how quickly this could escalate the fact, as you say , measured fact, as you say, measured response, the fact that that iran and tehran seems to be playing this down. Do you think we could be all right, or should we could be all right, or should we still be hugely concerned . We still be hugely concerned . Well, i think we could be all right, but i think we should remain concerned. Its been described by some, us sources as, something of a humiliation for iran that , israeli fighter for iran that, israeli fighter jets apparently were able to enter iranian airspace a couple of hours ago, something the iranians were unable to do with israel, the fact that theyve sent this message next door to where their Nuclear Production , where their Nuclear Production, exists and where the drones were made , a lot of messages sent made, a lot of messages sent there. And so iran will probably feel that they they must retaliate the position of the, the mullahs and the ayatollahs in iran, is described as somewhat weakened, and they need to show strength , so they will to show strength, so they will probably do something, lets hope its not on a massive basis. Lets hope its , for tat, basis. Lets hope its, for tat, but, some of the experts do feel that that phase is over and that their response will be greater. And i would imagine then that the israelis are waiting to see what that is before deciding what, if anything, to do next. Okay. Roger, thanks very much indeed. Well, middle east security analyst Seth Frantzman joins us now. Good to see you this morning, seth. And whats your assessment of what weve seen in the past few hours . The past few hours . Well, it does appear that, you know, there has been some sort of incidents in iran, but i think its clear that the Iranian Regime is downplaying it. And it does seem that although, you know, media is indicating that israel carried out sort retaliation or indicating that israel carried out have;ort retaliation or indicating that israel carried out have you, retaliation or indicating that israel carried out have you, i retaliation or indicating that israel carried out have you, i thinkation or indicating that israel carried out have you, i think that or what have you, i think that well probably hopefully see some sort of de escalation, because in the end of the day , because in the end of the day, iran attacked israel with 350 missiles and drones, which is unprecedented attacks. So i think israel had to show that its willing to do something. But i think that its not in anyones interest to see escalate into a wider regional conflict. Do you think why do you think, seth, that that iran is playing it down following the its previous rhetoric . Its previous rhetoric . Well, the Iranian Regime has spent you know, the last decades or so pretending that it is on the winning side. It basically the winning side. It basically is always messaging the israel, the United States are losing and that the United States is leaving the region, that israel is under siege and israel is about to fall apart. So if you spend many years as an authoritarian regime, messaging that your enemy is weak and that you are on the offensive everywhere in the region, and then all a sudden it turns then all of a sudden it turns out that in fact, i think what many people know, which the many people know, which is the Iranian Regime, a bit of a Iranian Regime, is a bit of a paper tiger. Its not as strong as itself. Think as it portrays itself. I think that harmful that would be incredibly harmful to to admit that it to the regime to admit that it cant defend its own airspace. So has to pretend that it can so it has to pretend that it can defend its airspace, because especially that be especially that would be embarrassing, considering especially that would be embthat;sing, considering especially that would be embthat israel onsidering fact that israel had intercepted, with the intercepted, along with the americans, 99 of drones and americans, 99 of the drones and missiles iran attacked missiles that iran attacked israel with and iran shows. I mean, iran is claiming this morning that it was attacked by a small miniature drones. If a few small miniature drones. If it claims that it cant even stop that, then how can it stop something more serious . Read into the what can we read into the fact that israel has not said anything yet . Could it possibly be an indication that this isnt over yet . Over yet . Well, certainly. Yeah, its an indication on the one hand that, you know, israel, of course, reserves the right to continue its any sort of response. I mean, this is its obvious that this is an open conflict in the sense that iran openly attacked israel. However, i indications in us i do think the indications in us media this morning, the reports that abc and other places that basically had indicated that there had been an attack, it would seem to show that there is some acknowledgement bit some acknowledgement a bit on the side , in, in terms the israeli side, in, in terms of how this will be viewed by, other anti israeli powers in the region, what do you think . I mean , because the i mean, the mean, because the i mean, the issu