Business news and analysis. Business news and analysis. 1186, and this is 1998, it toppled 19 by august 31st. A lot of anxiety there. But then, it mostly move sideways during the Senate Hearings which began early february, ended on february 12th, 1999. Look at the chart, you can see the stock market was up to the races after that. Neil you have a good economic or market backed up. I think it helps if you are president to base of the like his. Richard nixon was not so lucky, if you think about it. If he had to kind of growth that reagan had, clinton had, he might have survived, for sure. Neil you never know. Certainly, all of these rattling barks, could it rattle your money . Sam, what you think . Hey, neil, good to talk to you again. I think that newspapers are sold on headlines, but stocks are purchased on bottom lines. This really does not affect the overall bottom line. I think it certainly is something that will be selling newspapers and causing people to turn on fox in the coming days, but our expectation is Economic Growth will remain healthy, earnings will continue to rise. As a result, solo stock prices. Neil you have to wonder, john, with this concern or outside the box of the development, it will be like the black Swan Development that you see coming. What would happen if a house switch, democrats begin impeachment hearing, you know the drill, then what . I think the house will switch to democrat. The president s party has lost each in the house. I think that is likely to happen. Im not sure that they will start the impeachment process. But one of the probabilities of that, two president s impeached, one resigned, the market did not change long term because of those political scandals. The market will change on basic
economic fundamentals. The economic fundamentals right now are very strong. Plus, you have to understand that president trump, his economies are so pro growth. The cutting of regulation, the cutting of taxes have already been put into place. We will see that to benefit even if the house switch is to democrats. Neil do you get sense that the president s own performance of the market and the economy, people objectively has said it is very strong is hurt by the ongoing drip, drip, drip of development of the Washington Post story out a few minutes ago that there are president saw the possibility of Pardoning Paul Mena for . But again, it is part of the ongoing pattern. Heres another development. Here is another drip when you think . Thought that the market cares at all, neil, i question the uncertainty. What is the uncertainty . At the democrats take the house, the president is more than likely not going to be impeached. We know that he will not be in the senate. Vice president which is donald trump without the tweets. The same policies are getting put forward. Neil [laughs] trump without the tweets. Thats pretty good point. You are looking at hypotheticals, and i agree with catherine, we are a long way from that. There is no way to play Something Like that. No, there is not. The market is pretty much ignoring it. The market was flat pretty much from november 2014new bar for 2016. The reception at least of a business pretty administration. The transferred trump was a positive one. The capriciousness for mr. Trump for Trading Something on amazon, when he went after amazon, i thought this would blow over, sure enough, it did. There is a little bit of a trade in that, but i would not recommend trading on the
probability of president trumps timeline. Neil would you adjust the trade here . In fact i have. Neil, when i was last on your program, i said i dont believe that the trade war is all for nothing. I think it is a negotiating tactic. I actively recommended my clients to invest. That is proved to be a very lucrative trade. Neil you said that now. We wont get into that. We have gotten into nastiness, but trade war, and semantics. A trade war is catastrophic. Right now, we are talking about negotiations and proving and getting fair trade. I think you can trade on some of the headlines and headline news. Neil scott, on those earnings, the economy, and the performance, the rumors, backandforth on trade, is just noise to you, right . If the market, neil, remains a forwardlooking indicator. I dont want to spark the good party punch here, but you guys got to wonder, with all of the shots that trump is taking, if one of them hits, after all, that was a worry that we had a couple of months that didnt happen with the trade stuff, especially with vladimir putin. But they are throwing more and more at him every day. Neil thank you all, very, very much. With the drama around the News Development and the drip, drip, drip, the president was considering a pardon melted off his lawyers for paul mena four. His team saying that they did not consult him about any of that. About pardoning manafort. Much ado about nothing. After this. We protected your money then and were dedicated to helping
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dicey. I did not come out of the campaign, and that is fake. It has not even a campaign violation. Neil all right, if no Campaign Funds were involved, it was just the president paying the lawyer, and of story, is that the whole story . There is no legal quagmire there at all. Tom, is he right . Hes part right, but i think it may be a little bit more complex. The fact is, Campaign Finance law is a little bit complicated and byzantine law that there is. I love complexity as much as anyone, but oh, my goodness, it could be very difficult to decide in a particular case what is our Campaign Finance violation and what isnt. Often the question turns on intent. We know from this plea, Michael Cohen affected these please to circumvent Campaign Finance law. But it is not affect someone involved like the president also had the intent to violate camp and finance law. Neil even if youre not paying with Campaign Funds, you could be culpable . You could be, in other words, there are disclosure requirements. If you have a situation where a thirdparty reaches into his wallet and makes a contribution or a payment that is intended to affect the outcome of an election just because that money did not come from the campaign doesnt make everything okay. That is still something that would need to be disclosed. There would be issues about whether you are exceeding the authorized limits on Campaign Contributions and things along those lines. Neil all right, so the difference here is the difference between the candidate himself right in the check, or would it have mattered if it stopped with Michael Cohen writing the check with no involvement . The best way to answer that question is that it would be a different analysis. In other words, there would be one set of rules that could be applicable in a situation where the campaign is writing the check or the candidate is writing the check out of his own pocket. Different rules come into play
if you are in a situation where the third party such as Michael Cohen makes the payment. I would say that the candidate or the campaign reimburses the third party doesnt somehow insulate that. I would still be a situation where the third party, even if he is being reimbursed, it was still need to reapply with the disclosure and the contribution rules. Neil i know that this gets a little bit of fuel from legal matters here, but if the idea was for this to be revealed in the election to hurt the president , you could have effectively made that argument and it didnt. Everything was downhill from that by comparison. Was that an issue . Is that an issue . Neil, this is why it is so dog are complicated. There can be a lot of expenditures that might serve dual purposes. In other words, you could argue that these type of expenditures are personal expenses, that these are the sorts of deals that donald trump would have made, regardless of whether he was running for office or not and that he should be put in the
personal expenditures category. Then again, you have the other side of the school of thought that would say, my goodness, the guy is running for president and the reason why he did it was to increase his odds and the election. Therefore, it should be counted as campaign expenditures. You should recall when john edwards was the candidate and he was making his payoffs, and ultimately, he was acquitted of these charges. But, again, i think it underscores that when youre talking Campaign Finance law, there are a lot of gray area, and at the end of the day, it will often turn on what the intent of these payment was. Neil let me ask you real quickly about the story that the Washington Post put out that the lawyers were talking about pardoning Paul Manafort. John roberts was able to contact gruber giuliani, and that he would never consider this. I dont know what is whats there, but what do you make of that . What would happen if the
president were to do that . It is tough to know what to make of it. The fact is that the president is signaling publicly that what happened to Paul Manafort was unfair. This is not a president who has exercised his pardon power, so i think the possibility of exercising a pardon at some point is on the table. Paul manafort, of all the people who was willing to go to court, there might be a pardon at the end of the road waiting for him. I think that the president was getting good legal advice to the extent that the advisors were saying if you are considering the possibility of a pardon, decide who you want to pardon as opposed to doing it right now or doing so preemptively. Neil tom, thank you, very, very much. The craziness. Have you seen this monster of a storm . Just knocking on hawaiis door. That is the view from space. It is very, very close now. After this. Thats why theres otezla. Otezla is not a cream. Its a pill that treats moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis differently. With otezla, 75 clearer skin is achievable. Dont use if youre allergic to otezla. It may cause severe diarrhea, nausea, or vomiting. Otezla is associated with. An increased risk of depression. Tell your doctor if you have a history of depression or suicidal thoughts,. Or if these feelings develop. Some people taking otezla reported weight loss. Your doctor should monitor your weight and may stop treatment. Upper respiratory tract infection and headache may occur. Tell your doctor about your medicines and if youre pregnant or planning to be. Otezla. Show more of you. Let your perfect drive come together during the final days of the Lincoln Summer Invitation event get 0 apr on select 2018 lincoln models plus One Thousand Dollars bonus cash. But i am a simple farmer. Bas my life is here. [telephone ring] ahoyhoy. Alexander graham bell here. No, no, my number is one, you must want two two, i say like my father before. [telephone ring] like my father before. Ahoyhoy as long as people talk too loudly on the phone, you can count on geico saving folks money. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. But prevagen helps your brain with an ingredient originally discovered. In jellyfish. In clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. At home, with internet essentials. Neil all right, adam is in maui, hawaii, right now with a hurricane that wont quit. As knocking on that beautiful door. What is the latest there, buddy . We havent had rain in a few hours, and now, youre starting to see it pick up a little bit, and The Rain Come in with big drops. A lot of rain. We are expecting potentially 1012 inches depending on where you are in the island. It has been a calm morning. For maui, and much of the island here in hawaii. On the big island, we have video for you. It is only 25 miles or so to our east from where i am standing, the Big Island Of Hawaii Where Hilo is located which gets a lot
of rain anyway. The moisture is coming from the hurricane and drenched 16 inches of water. Conversely, on the other side of the island, on the other side of the volcanoes, it is pretty dry over there. Only a quarter inch. They are expecting to get a lot of rain. People have not taken a slightly appeared that is important. We were here yesterday morning and saw people preparing then, and we continue to pair as The Rain Comes. We talk to officials like mayors, and governors, they dont take the storm lightly. We havent really faced a hurricane of this magnitude and as far of history as i can remember. It will be a new experience for everybody if it maintains its current strength. I am hoping and praying that it will diminish and strength. What is for sure, hawaii will be impacted, the question is how
bad . If the president , trying to get on the front end of this as well. He put out a tweet today saying ive put out an Emergency Disaster Declaration to provide hawaii with our teams, closely closely tell people from fema have come in so far to help coordinate if necessary. The good news, we are getting bits and pieces of it from a local forecasters here. Every 5 minutes or so, updating it. The storm is so big, the wind is helping. They dont believe that the wind will be a big issue as well. The hope that the probability of high winds are getting lower and lower. But the rain total still is a worry for every single island along this chain. Again, the big island in one place has got 16 inches of rain. We are not sure if we are going to get that here in maui, or the others, but there is potential for that, neil. We are all prepared for it and see what the rain brings. Neil adam in hawaii. Headed for the markets. One that you cant control. After this. Hold grudges. For drivers with Accident ForgivenessLiberty Mutual wont raise their rates because of their first accident. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty until i held her. Managing my Type 2 Diabetes wasnt my top priority. I found my tresiba® reason. Now im doing more to lower my a1c. I take tresiba® once a day. Tresiba® controls blood sugar for 24 hours for powerful a1c reduction. woman wed been counting down to his retirement. It was our tresiba® reason. He needs insulin to control his High Blood Sugar and, at his age, hes at greater risk for low blood sugar. Tresiba® releases slow and steady and works all day and night like the bodys insulin. vo tresiba® is a longacting insulin used to control High Blood Sugar in adults with diabetes. Dont use tresiba® to treat diabetic ketoacidosis, during episodes of low blood sugar, or if you are allergic to any of its ingredients. Dont share needles or insulin pens. Dont reuse needles. The most common side effect is low blood sugar, which may cause dizziness, sweating, confusion, and headache. Check your blood sugar. Low blood sugar can be serious and may be lifethreatening. Injection site reactions may occur. Tell your prescriber about all medicines you take and all your medical conditions. Taking tzds with insulins like tresiba® may cause serious side effects like heart failure. Your insulin dose shouldnt be changed without asking your prescriber. Get medical help right away if you have trouble breathing, fast heart