Thank you, iowa. And finally, Hillary Clinton is tied by the socialist Bernie Sanders. Will that hurt her campaign . Caution you are about to enter the no spin zone. The factor begins right now. H9÷ hi, im bill oreilly. Thanks for watching us tonight. The iowa vote, that is the subject of this evenings talking points memo. You know the tv media goes nuts over early political events. There is a lot of nonsense being spouted. Talking points would like to set the record straight tonight. Ted cruz won largely on the strength of religious republicans in iowa and a well organized campaign there. Senator had to win and he did. Although dr. Ben carson now accusing the Cruz Campaign of dirty tricks. Carson will be here shortly. Donald trump ranri second and his snuble of the fox news debate hurt him. Here is the proof. Late deciding iowa voters broke for marco rubio 30 . Ted cruz 25 . Trump just 14 . Had mr. Trump showed up and v9p well in the debate, the not have been that way, in my opinion. All the other republican candidates got hammered, including jeb bush who spent some time and money in iowa. On the democrat side, it was a tie but the timing is absolutely nothing. The reason is Hillary Clinton will win the nomination, even though Bernie Sanders is saying stuff like this thank you so much, as you know we just got in from iowa where we astounded the world. [cheers] now in New Hampshire we will astound the world again. Talking points gentle message for senator sanders. Nobody was astounded, bernie. All the polls said you would compete very well in iowa. Also polling put sanders ahead in New Hampshire. Nothing astownding about that either. What is astounding is that anyone could actually believe Bernie Sanders will defeat Hillary Clinton for the nomination. That will not happen because minority voters in the larger states will break big time for mrs. Clinton who is running as Barack Obamas ship mate. In fact, Hillary Clintons biggest opponent is the fbi. Not the socialist sanders. The bureau is actively investigating mrs. Clintons email problems and well have a special report on that tomorrow. Now, in New Hampshire, Donald Trumps likely to win. So all of those who say he has been damaged are full of it. It is clear that in iowa religious voters preferred the very conservative cruz. Its also clear that mr. Trump made some mistakes campaigning in the Buckeye State hawkeye state, i should say. Buckeye is ohio. But trump is still very strong in newoy hampshire. South carolina, nevada, the three upcoming votes. The media, of course, despises donald trump and will paint him as a loser if they can. But here on the factor, we are fair, truth is trump remains very formidable. Senator marco rubio the big winner in iowa last night. His campaign is now very competitive and should remain so unless the there is something about the senator folks dont know. In New Hampshire folks can vote for either party. Much wider audience than had in iowa. Cruz, trump, rubio, all viable. Bernie, two state pony. Hillary . Not damaged by early voting no matter how it goes. Her high noon, march 11st, the super tuesday primaries. And thats the memo. Now for the top story tonight, reaction. Joining us from washington, charles krauthammer, look as little dazed by the brilliance of that talking points memo. Where am i going wrong . You know, next time im going to have to wear sunglasses. The brilliance is blinding. Blinded by the light. Right. You know, you are completely wrong when you say that trump was not damaged. This is supposed to be a no spin zone. Of course he was. He lost. So what . Trump is a guy who defines people i dont actually hate the word. Either losers or winners. When you lose something, in trumps world, you are a loser. Now, heres the damage that was done. If trump look at the counter factual. If trump had won, ted cruz said last week correctly. Trump wins iowa, he is going to win New Hampshire. Runs the table. And he cruises right through the stating for the nomination. He aint cruising no more. This is going to cost him a long slog through the trench. I still think at least as of today, a candidate casino im still going to putn t little more money on trump than on the other two. Namely rubio and cruz, but its just going to be a little bit more money. All right. Let me challenge. He has a slight edge. Yes. But the overwhelming edgy would have had if he had won in iowa disappeared in a puff of smoke last night. All right. Now here is where youre wrong. It doesnt matter enlighten me o seer. I will. It doesnt matter that trump didnt win in iowa. He showed pretty well. Everybody knows overwhelmingly it was a religious7aq vote. Trump supporters are not bailing on him in New Hampshire or South Carolina or nevada because of the iowa vote. They are not. So next week, trump is likely to win New Hampshire, all right, i think rubio may run second in New Hampshire because he is the guy that really has the wind behind him. But i dont believe trump in the eyes of his supporters is damaged at all. Thats just my opinion. You know what . Thats why the show is fun. Because you say one thing. Pny the other. Now, lets go over to hillary and bernie. Wait a minute. Rebut, okay. Come on. Im ready. Come on. You are just wrong again and i cant let that pass. All right. Go. Your interpretation of iowa is incorrect. Its not that cruz is the religious vote and thats why he won. Because if that were true, how do you get rubio coming into one point of trump. . That is the nonreligious vote. Neferredz, he loses the religious vote. He loses the nonreligious vote. So you have made the point the point is. Trump beats them. You know that from the entrance polling. We dont know how it breaks down for rubio. The pointy is that cruz won the conservative vote as did rubio. What you had between these two men, rubio and cruz are running as conservatives. The reaganites. Each has the mantel and competes with the other for the mantel. One is more extreme and one is more mainstream. Trump is not a conservative. True. He is a populist. You are making my case for me. Thats why he loos. Lost. If you add up the conservatives, cruz and trump, you have got 51 . Im sorry, cruz and rubio, the conservatives, they took 511 of the vote. The populist took 25 . Thats why trump lost. Okay. I am submitting to you that in New Hampshire, a secular state, with no evangelical quotient, okay, cruz is not going to perform nearly as well because the religious factor was huge in iowa. You are now beyond that that does not play anywhere else. But i have got to go the last two minutes over to hillary. Iqg mean, this Bernie Sanders thing is a mediadriven thing. Everybody knows, you know, i know, sanders has nok[k shot to win. And it just i mean it angers me in the sense that its a phony deal. Now, this may surprise you. But on this i will say that you have stumbled on to the truth. It occasionally happens. It was more of a stagger on to the truth but you got it. I agree with you this is a complete media hype. The idea that sanders has any chance of winning. Again, on special report, we do our candidate casino. I put zero dollars on sanders last week. And you are also right that the most important primary on the democratic side is not iowa, its not New Hampshire. It is the comey primary. Comey being the head of the fbi. If he makes a criminal referral, she topples over and then you get a biden and perhaps even with a warren as his running mate. But you will not get a Bernie Sanders. Now, how late can biden get in . See, this is the timing and we have a special report on this tomorrow. How late can biden get in and get on all the ballots . Do you know . It is sort of like i dont know the rules on this. But im sure the dnc will change the rules. Right. If they get if she is literally knocked out, look, the democrats can change any rule, any time that they want. All right. I have got to governmental its not going to look good. Its going to anger the sanders people it can be done and they will do it. Charles krauthammer, everybody, give him a hand it will be interesting to see the mail tomorrow. Next on the run june . Adthe left wing and right wing media weigh in on the votes. Very provocative sound. We have that for you as the factor continues all across the u. S. A. And all around the world. [ coughing ] thats why you need alka seltzer plus day night liquid gels. Its tough cold symptom fighters provide powerful relief. Relief that helps you sleep at night and gets you back out there during the day. [ deep breath ] [ truck horn ] alkaseltzer plus day night liquid gels. Also available, in stores alkaseltzer plus night time hot drink mix. E trade is all about seizing opportunity. And id like to. Cut. So im gonna take this opportunity to direct. Thank you, well call you. Evening, film noir, smoke, atmosphere. Bob. Youre a young farmhand and e trade is your cow. Milk it. E trade is all about seizing opportunity. Ii like to think of myself as more of a control. Enthusiast. Mmm, a perfect 177degrees. And thats why this road warrior rents from national. I can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. And i dont have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. And i dont. And national lets me choose any car in the aisle. Control. Its so, whats the word . Sexy. Go national. Go like a pro. In the impact segment tonight, over at cnn there was a lot of rooting last night, especially on the Hillary Clinton front. Ju much better candidate. I will tell you. The past two to three weeks. Hillary clinton has blossomed into the kind of candidate that you dream about. And that would not have happened had you not had this sort of de well, im not sure how many people are dreaming about Hillary Clintons candidacy. But be that as it may, joining us now from boston mary ann marsh a democrat and andrea tantaros, host of outnumbered. Anything about last night surprise you. How close it was between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on the left and on the right rubios last minute rise. Those polls were correct and he was in striking distance of the top two. Those were the two surprises that i saw. I wasnt surprised by rubio showing because 3 3 of the caucus voters were undecided going in tom the last weekend. Umhuh. And when trump didnt show up, mary ann as i explained unbelievably in the astute talking points memo, when trump didnt show up to the debate, a lot of undecided voters went blank you, im going to look at cruz and rubio. There there really isnt muchzie÷ delineation. They are not similar people. So, 30 of the as we pointed out 30 of those who voted late voted for rubio and i think it wasof trumps no. Am i wrong . You are the not wrong. But thats only a factor not all the factors. I think there were several others o. Obviously ted cruz had the Better Organization here. Had trump had the organization, can you overcome a 4 point deficit. Thats where the polls showed him. That was the margin of error. He should are been able to do it. Nuts and bolts are one thing. National perception is the other. Now, he had henry reports that Hillary Clinton does not want to run against marco rubio. All right. Do you believe thats true . I think thats possible. But i think marco rubio has yet to prove himself. All right. So you believe that its possible that he had henrys report something is accurate. He had will be thrilled with that. He had will be thrilled with that and its to be he had is right. I believe that you look at the demographic chart and rubio would be tough for clinton and thats what rubios campaign thing is now i can win. Correct. Dont get ahead of me. The clinton. Its possible. I know this to be true. Because they told me. Members that i cant name because they would be not only fired but probably burned at the stake. They think they can beat trump and they think they can beat cruz. Trump would be much tougher than people think, especially with, i think there are a lot of reagan democrats. Blue collar workers. Union members who would support trump. I think that makes it difficult. Okay so cruz is an ideological candidate. The numbers arent there for in america. Correct. Trump can cross over because of his message of they are all idiots and im going to straighten it out. Do you agree. I actually agree with just about everything that mary ann said. One, i agree with her that point that trump giving the fox news debate could have been a factor but not the factor. Thats not allot of voters shifting. The fact thatdmyovuu and his new york values did so well in religious rural iowa is huge. By the way, if you look at cruz and trump, both nonestablishment candidates, it was a sharp rebuke of the establishment last night. And number two, trump got the most votes of anyone in iowa. Ever in the history of an iowa caucus, except for ted cruz. Im not running down trumps appeal to a disenfranchised voting public. Yeah. I am telling you it was incredible blunder for him to not show up that the debate and give rubio and cruz all that air time. All right. That was the blunder. It may have been a factor. It may have been a factor. More than that. Mary ann. You dont but mary ann is right about the crossover appeal with blue collar male voters. These voters, bill, they feel that the Republican Party has left them. They have dont have a country club membership. They dont have the elitism and they dont fit into the democrats progressive agenda. Trump is able to compete beyond nevada, all right. He is going to have a he will win New Hampshire. Thats a forgone. And then i want to bring you back to mary ann for the last this media trumped up, pardon the pun , between sanders and clinton, this is a joke. What i hear, she has got Hillary Clinton, there is no way on this earth, other than she is indicted or abducted by aliens, that she is going to lose to Bernie Sanders. And you know it, and every democrat knows it because people of color, primarily voters, they are not going to vote for Bernie Sanders. So once she hits South Carolina and florida and texas and california, and those are where the delegates are bernie can run around New Hampshire andxo have a little snow blower and do whatever he wants up there and it doesnt matter. I wish the media would tell it the truth. Last word. Heres the difference, bill. You are right but. The problem is the problem is i think we are settling into a war of attrition. Democrats award their delegates proportionally. Bernie sanders will keep picking up delegates. Since last week 20 million since last month and average contribution is 27. Is he going to do that race like 2008 between obama and clinton. Thats a war. He is not. He is going to get knocked out on march 1st. Milk shakes, i will bet you milk shakes. I would take a few of those dollars and buy a couple good suits. If i were bernie i would get a food taster. I do agree with you want to you to think this is like a big heated race. Come on. Its. Save the seeing save the segment. Its never going to happen over there. All right. Ladies. Thank you. Thank you. Directly ahead. Ben carson furious. He says the Cruz Campaign used dirty tricks on him. Doctor will be here. Gutfeld, mcguirk have some interesting iowa observations. Those reports after these messages. Your investments through good times and bad. 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That i was going to go back home, that i wasnt going to go to New Hampshire. I wasnt going to go to South Carolina. All right. So cnn put that up. Lets just walk through this so we know what we are talking about. Cnn put that up. Apparently that came from steve kick, the congressman in iowa. Is that where that came from . Well, steve king subsequently tweeted out that it looks like carson is out of the race and, therefore, y