movement? even the left is turning against these people. juan and mary katharine with analysis. caution, you are about to enter the no spin zone, the factor begins right now. captions by closed captioning services >> bill: hi, i'm bill o'reilly. thanks for watching us tonight. the mitt romney sunk -- surge in florida that's the latest from a poll taken in florida. most of the other polls have romney out in front as well. what has happened since south carolina? well, romney has spent millions on tv ads raising questions about speaker gingrich's history, mostly political but the ads are strongly negative. gingrich has fought back to some extent but he cannot match the romney cash. also governor romney did well in the last debate slowing down the gingrich momentum. nevertheless, the speaker continues to warn about a possible romney nomination. on abc yesterday gingrich listed his own accomplishments and then hammered romney. >> all the this is wiped away by romney's totally phony history, which he that continues to repeat. we have a fight over whether somebody can be fundamentally dishonest and try to hide their liberal record in massachusetts and try to hide their past in terms of voting for democrats and get to be the nominee. >> but the real reason that mitt romney is surging in florida has to do with the republic voter in the sunshine state. like new hampshire, florida is less ideological than iowa or south carolina. and there are two kinds of republic voters nationwide committed conservatives who vote on values above all else and practical republicans who look at problem-solving and the ability to win. talking points respects both of those voting blocks and those that are in florida, the practical voters outnumber the idealogues, that's why mitt romney is ahead. i'm not saying it's not practical to vote for newt gingrich. certainly a strong candidate and could take the fight to barack obama, no question about that as we said last week, it is a matter of style over substance in the republic primaries now. it's not much difference in the way romney and gingrich would govern the country although both would never admit that we believe mitt romney will win in florida tomorrow and it will be hard for speaker gingrich to find a pathway after that to derail the romney campaign. once florida voters speak, money will flow to mitt romney. and so newt gingrich will have to wait until march 6th, super tuesday, before any massive change in sentiment could possibly happen. in politics that is an eternity. there are just three debates scheduled between now and then. at this point the long and winding road according to paul mccartney is facing newt gingrich. that's the memo. top story tonight. rick santorum polling around 13% in florida. he is not campaigning there today. his daughter bella is in the hospital with numerous la. senator santorum has to care for her in addition to carrying on with his campaign. the senator joins from us st. louis. how is bella today, senator. >> she is much better. yesterday afternoon she really made a turn and the chest x-rays dramatically improved. i just want to thank everybody for their prayers and outpouring of support for bella and karen and the family. it worked. i mean, she had a very, very tough time of it on saturday. sort of miraculous, bill, i haven't been home since christmas day and the one day i was home was the day that she really started to have a lot of problems and we ended up for the first time in three years she hasn't been in the hospital in three years. she has a condition called trisomi 18. which is a condition that makes you susceptible to having problems if you get sick. severe problems. and so we were just very blessed that we had a good team there she has turned it around and doing great. i just talked to my wife. she son the mend and hopefully be out of the hospital in a couple of days. we are feeling good about things. >> that must make it very difficult for you, senator. i know you are committed to the campaign but certainly family comes first. and you have your little daughter in this kind of a condition. it's got to be very, very tough for you to deal with both of them, am i wrong. >> no, it's incredibly hard. one of the sacrifices that you make obviously as any candidate. karen and i have seven children. we have a couple of them on the road with us. the older ones that are out of school and they are traveling with us a lot. you know the other ones are behind. it's a sacrifice. particularly a sacrifice given this little girl who is really well well well outlived her life expectancy and really just a unique and terrific little girl. she is the joy of other life. she is the most pleasant, sweet little girl you would ever want to meet. sort of the center of the family. i miss her terribly when i'm on the road but in many respects one of the reasons i'm out here is because, you know, fighting for little kids like bella who in many respects are, i think, going to be left behind whether it's obama care or whether it's a system where government is going to start to evaluate people not based on who they are or what they are but what they can do. that to me is a world that i don't want to be a part of and i'm going to fight to make sure never happens. >> bill: okay. you heard my talking points memo and it looks -- we will get into the analysis. it looks pretty clear that mitt romney will win from the votes that have already been cast in the three bellwether counties. again, we will get into this during the program. let's assume that romney does he have well in florida. you're in missouri right now because there is a primary there but it's a nonbinding, no delegate primary. do you stay in if the odds then rise against you to the point where there is not a lot of money coming in, do you stay in the race? >> oh, absolutely. you know, the money is coming. in we have done very, very well. just over the last four or five days we have raised about a half a million dollars online. things have really done well since the last debate. we think we separated ourselves out from the pac really very well and, in fact, the past three debates. since it got down to four. we feel like we have gotten our stride here. while florida is a expensive place to play. i couldn't afford to play in from a financial point of view. we have. >> bill: 13 or 14%. let's be realistic here, senator, have you got nothing really coming up. nevada is romney territory. that's a caucus. minnesota, i don't know what's going on in minnesota. that's another caucus and nonbinding thing in missouri. super tuesday is going to be an enormous financial buy. romney is the only guy that has the bucks. it's not about you or your ideology or how are. it's about the reality of money in this country. >> well, let me just say a couple of things. first up, it's proportional. so winning, while it's a good thing, it's not everything because delegates are going to be assigned base the on the per senel damage of the vote that you get. >> bill: florida is winner take all. >> it is. >> bill: you know what i'm talking about here. it becomes a very long long long shot for you, all right? as romney rises in money and donations. gingrich i don't know what he is going to do. i just don't know. we will try to find out. it becomes very difficult for you to really compete now, some people say well, it's worth hanging on because, number one, your message gets out. you continue to get your message out. you become a player at the convention and if anything were to befall mitt romney or whoever the leader is, you are in position, that entering into your thinking? >> well, i think one thing we do know about this race, bill is if you don't like what's going on in the race wait a week or two. we have seen this race change literally a dozen times. >> bill: that's true, there is nothing in between now florida and super tuesday. there is no event -- unless it comes out of the news world. i will give you the last word. go ahead. >> well, i mean we have caucuses, you mentioned colorado which is another caucus. these caucuses are important. there are delegates at stake. missouri even the primary, even though it's not binding, a strong vote here for us will tell the story. there is a lot of restlessness among conservatives. they are not happy with governor romney. they are not happy with increasingly not happy with newt gingrich and the way his campaign is and some of the things have been highlighted. they are looking for someone as alternative. do i believe this is an episode of survivor, bill. we'll hang in there, this race will come back to us at the right time. >> bill: i can't argue with you. you came out of nowhere in iowa. been very competitive. nobody thought that was going to happen. you hang in there and our best to your family. if we can do anything for bella or for your family you let us know, okay? thanks, senator. >> thank you, bill. i appreciate it. >> bill: next on the rundown brit hume with the latest polling results. mary katharine on the latest -- the last and latest of movements it's really out of control in i wouldn't do that. pay the check? no, i wouldn't use that single miles credit card. hey, aren't you... shhh. i'm researchg a role. today's special... the capital one venture card. you earn double miles on every purchase. impressive. chalk is a lost medium. if you're not earning double miles... you're settling for half. was that really necessary? 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[ male announcer ] your favorite foods fighting you? fight back fast with tums. calcium rich tums goes to work in seconds. nothing works faster. ♪ tum ta tum tum tums >> bill: hume zone segment tent. senior analyst. i love that. you know? >> i had to get it in my contract to be called that they wanted to call me the senior moment political analyst but i was able to ward that off. >> bill: there was the aarp analyst. all kinds of stuff going on with you. >> all of it fits, i'm afraid. >> bill: romney, we have got the polling guys up behind you. the initial votes in florida have already been cast. that sends a strong message that is he going to have a good day tomorrow. you heard my talking points and my interview with rick santorum. you know, i'm looking for the pathway. i'm looking for how these guys get traction after florida. i'm not quite seeing it but you know more. what say you? >> well, i thought i mean i think a lot of us thought after new hampshire, for example, that both gingrich and santorum were finished. gingrich finished fifth in new hampshire. and, yet, he stays -- staged a stunning comeback. remarkable come back. santorum won iowa. things have been happening in this race and, you know, there is always a temptation on a lot of us to want to call these things over and see a straight line projection to certain outcome. but straight line projections are very dangerous in politics. the next few weeks don't look to be particularly busy. only a couple of events. only one debate in the month of february. there is not a lot ahead of us. things can happen. i have no reason to think there is anything to this idea. let's suppose something came out about mitt romney's finances that made us all understand why he didn't release any more tax returns and he did. all of a sudden there is big cure if you feel about that anything can happen in politics. dangerous to make a straight line projection. a lot will depend, bill how much money gingrichens backers are willing to put up if he loses badly in flerld tomorrow. >> bill: the indications are not much because did he come into florida with momentum as you pointed out and romney has outspent him 4 to 1. and even though he has got the big gambling guy kicking a lot of money in there for him, one of the reasons that newt gingrich isn't doing as well in florida as some thought he might is because he can't make the buys. he can't buy the ads. he can't counter what the romney people are saying about him. and he knows it gingrich knows it and he is teed off. you can see it in his demeanor. you can see that in that interview he he gave nbc news yesterday. >> he kind of gets rattled and he starts campaigning about the campaign which is not effective. >> bill: no. but i don't blame him. he is he basically saying can i beat this guy if the playing field were level but it isn't because the establishment is giving him all the money. i don't expect that to change if romney wins big in florida. there is going to be more money for romney and less money for gingrich and santorum. >> bill: all that. >> all that makes perfect sense, bill. i'm not saying it won't play that that way. i'm not seeing it any differently than you do. we have called this over too many times already, i think. >> bill: i don't think we called over to. but we give the folks the realistic viewft landscape. you and i are doing that right now. >> right. >> bill: if there is press generated. believe me, they are going after romney's finances. they have got guys all over the caymans and switzerland, trying to find out if there is anything this guy has done. remember, he had that money in trust invested for him. he wasn't doing this. that's a big shield between him and whatever they may find because they will find stuff. the second thing is rick santorum and newt gingrich are probably smart to hang in as long as they can because something as you said might happen and there they are if something does. >> a lot of real uneasiness with the republic electorate with mitt romney. despite the fact he has been able to beat gingrich to a pulp in florida with ads and have a huge win tomorrow. the remaining uneasiness romney has a lot to do. he needs to make a better case for himself as a capitalist. better argument on the economy than he has made. look, i'm mitt romney, i'm a former businessman. i have got a bad economy elect me. that's oversimplyification but it needs to be more substantive and powerful with that until he does he won't in my view completely close the sale with a great many republicans. >> bill: brit hume, everybody, thanks. we asked you has the factor been fair so far in covering the campaign in more than 20 hours of you voted. 73% say yes would have been fair. 27% say we have not. please email us your beef. directly ahead, the occupy wall street movement blows up in oakland, california as we predicted it would. juan and mary katharine will analyze and then robert redford slamming the republic candidates. say it ain't so sundance kid. coming right back. 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[announcer:] conocophillips. >> bill: impact segment tonight, always interesting to find out why voters cast their ballots a certain way. as we told you in the talking points memo, mitt romney is surging in florida according to the polls and newt gingrich is falling back. joining us now from charlottesville dr. larry sabato the director for center of politics at the university of virginia. from miami, david paligos the director of the political research center which polled the republic race over the weekend in the sunshine state david why exactly the romney surge we conducted four polls. state poll showing romney winning 47-27. we conducted the sister tests that we do at suffolk just to verify the margins and the outcomes and we selected three counties in florida. one in the northeast region, one in the southeast region, one in the southwest region from like elections. and all three of these are pointing to landslide win tomorrow. >> shepard: when you say -- >> bill: when you say that the counties you selected selected ; they are heavily white counties not like dated. how do you say that? how do you know it's a landslide because the vote is tomorrow. not even here yet. how do you know? >> well, we have had some pretty good success with bellwethers at suffolk. there have been 0% accurate in terms of straight up winners. in the cases in the last three election cycles where all three bellwethers agree on the same outcome they have been 100% accurate. >> bill: polling from those counties. not advanced votes, right? >> that's right. part of it were people who had already voted and part of had indicated very likely to vote. and in all three scenarios, in two of the three scenarios, romney actually broke 50%. 52% to 24%. in the other it was mid 40s. >> bill: advance vote in florida, dr. sabato is very interesting because -- people have cast their ballot which makes it out of the realm of theory. we assume the polling is going to be accurate. it was in south carolina. then what? then what? what happens to romney, gingrich and santorum? >> well, look, gingrich won south carolina by a big margin, double digits. romney is going to win florida by double digits. but they are not equal states. there is nine electoral votes in south carolina. there are 29 in florida. this is a giant win for mitt romney and it really does set back the aspirations of newt gingrich for lots of reasons. not least as you mentioned there is nothing really happening that gingrich is going to do well in come february. he has to wait until march 6th to make a real move. and the same with santorum. i just don't see how they move forward. that's not to say they can't win additional contests. gingrich can win some primaries on march 6th in the south and the border states. but, can he make it that far? >> bill: can he make it that far because he he doesn't have any money, right? -- can he make it that far because he says is he going to stay in until the end. >> as long as his friend, mr. allegedson continues to send him money to the super pac. maybe he can stay. in maybe he can win some more primaries. bill, there is now an 80% to 90% probability that romney is going to be the republic nominee. >> bill: where does that come from 80% to 90%. where did you get that. >> from past performance. historical performance. >> bill: do you agree with that? >> i think mitt romney is better set up to win, you know. newt gingrich didn't make the ballot in his home state of virginia. ha