Slowing i think that is clear. It is refracted clearly in the market. Generally speaking marcus do a better job predicting recessions and economists. I would say if youre using a standard, the markets are telling you whether it is commodity prices, generally speaking it is frankly going to grow but clearly slowing. Paul with 3. 1 percent in the First Quarter after three percent growth rate in 2018. Are you saying the Second Quarter with a one in front of it . Maybe even less than that . I mean isnt that bad . Gdp now says there is one handle in the Second Quarter seems to be appropriate. We are thinking with tariffs that have been discussed with the trade war that two Percent Realty is probably the more appropriate forecast for 2019. Something slightly less than that for 2020. Of course, this could change very quickly. I think given what we know now, it is, it would be difficult to sustain three percent real gdp growth this year. Paul we look at the economy, the real stallworth has been the consumer. And i think, helped by the jobs market. So if the jobs market turns over here, you know, are we really going to see some of that flow through to Consumer Spending . One would think so. There are offsets, Interest Rates have fallen, Mortgage Rates have fallen, oil prices have fallen. By the same token theres no question the job market has been very robust and i think youre also on the precipice of seeing real wage gains. You are seeing wage gains about three percent. I think right now, businesses are probably a little more concerned about extending wage and a period of uncertainty. That is one of the things i would be somewhat careful. Paul what i was looking for was an expansion that would continue to go, and if it happened you would see wage gains moving up from 3 to 4 perhaps. Like the often have in the past. Look to me in recent months they are stabilizing the gains of 3. 1 or 3. 2, Something Like that. Were not seeing in a acceleration. It is used for productivity which gives you growth and income and higher asset prices. Paul you can pay people more [laughter] precisely. The problem now is trade policy is blunt and probably some of the supplyside impact of the tax cuts that we saw. Paul on investment . On investment because companies obviously are somewhat more concerned about what the future may hold. About their supply chains, about the product, is the tax cut is there, bad news is that you probably are not seeing the full benefits of a tax cut that you would have seen in the absence of these tensions. Paul what is the evidence following capitol spending . I know it is anecdotal, the earnings cost i see this all the time from ceos and i guess the uncertainty on businesses beginning to have an effect on these investment decisions. I think it is more that you continue to see such a robust share purchases, actually capitol spending last year according to the s p was actually quite good. Paul for fall 2018. But not so much in the First Quarter as a second and third. Right here you see tendency more with Interest Rates and uncertainty for companies to buy back stock, focus on Financial Engineering as opposed to organic growth investing in their own businesses. And so that is one of the things that tends to be good for shareholders but not particularly good for the real economy. In my opinion is been one of the issues really since the financial crisis and 10 years ago. Paul any other policy, potential policy mistakes that you see out there that are counter growth other than trade . No, not really. I think generally speaking its quite stimulative you may see an increase in capitol spending next year people start to get worried that President Trump may not be reelected people might start to try to pull capitol spending into 2020 because of the accelerated depreciation that youre seeing. People might be worried about that peer regulatory i think is still tech is a different story but for the most part im not sure thats a problem for the fed that was the only other it seems to me the policy is too tight at this point to sustain a trade war. Interest rates would have to be lower if the trade war will be longerlasting. Paul as i learned Monetary Policy, jason, it is not supposed to be making up for bad mistakes on trade policy. It is supposed to do with inflation of prices and thats it. And paul, you are preaching to the quarry because it seems to me that Monetary Policy for the last 10 years has been used to solve all sorts of economic problems, social ills, social justice, and very well beyond what Monetary Policy should do. And it is a blunt instrument. By the same token i think the fed was the maintain stability. And clearly, trade is a Deflationary Force medium to longer term and have to take that into account. I think their models were fluid with higher real gdp growth and not have to adjust the models. Seems to be given that great tensions were seeing globally. Paul briefly, you looking for two or three cuts in rates this year . I believe so. I think probably the most appropriate rate by the end of the country two percent as opposed to 2 and a half percent. Paul already thank you very much, jason trennert. Monica met,higher taxes and regulation this is a commercial about insurance and i know youre thinking. 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With humira, control is possible. Paul amid signs of an economic slowdown, are washingtons antigrowth policies making things worse from the president s embrace of trade protectionism to house and senate democrats. Advancing the agenda of higher taxes and new regulation, could we be looking at a return to the slow growth of the obama years . Lets ask wall street journal columnist, and deputy editor, dan henninger. Editorial member, Allysia Finley and bob mcgurn. How worried should we be . I think is deathly a slow down, its been about 170,000 jobs on average which is slowdown from lester. Dad declines in manufacturing and basically very little growth in many service such as we have seen robust growth last year. Especially in healthcare, finance, professional business sector as well. Paul the jobs market has been holding up pretty well even amid slowing investment. This strikes me, bill, as a warning to policymakers a better get back to thinking about economic growth. I think especially to President Trump and the republicans. Because im not sure the democrats, this hurts them. They were saying two percent is the new normal. And it may have maintained the growth policies gave us a sugar high. If we have a present growth and then it drops down 22 percent, they will say look, we were right. That will give them a big advantage in the 2024 minimize the president s advantage in the 2020 election. Paul what do you. 2, dan in the policies . Jason trennert talked about trade i think its a problem. It is about that i think its a lot. We discussed did this in the context of full implement, we have a very tight labor market, stories are written all the time about finding a hard time finding new workers. The leslie mayes near election on economy or taxes. The other issue i think is immigration policy. Typically, you would join immigrants to start bolstering labor needs. With terms policies they created this boom in the economy, drove in employment rates down to low implement and now he is faced with the reality that we need more workers from somewhere. But the white house is pushing back against the idea of bringing in skilled or unskilled laborers. Paul every sort of the president s as we do need more workers like you said. Then he goes back and says well, maybe we dont and focus on immigration enforcement. There is a contradictory policy there but i think the biggest overhang of growth right now is trade policy. I would say that because you have multiple fronts and the threat of european tariffs or european or Japanese Cars come we dont know where china will go out, we dont know where north america trade problems will sort out. What you have here is the built in uncertainty that ceos are saying, rather make the investment, it is hard to judge the return on i will just buy back stock or i am going to have a merger or Something Like that. What i think is having the obama relations. President trump seems to think the ideal tariffs are the cause and maybe well have some cause but those are dwarfed by the benefits of the tariffs that produce economic growth. In fact there creating all kinds of headaches, supply chain, increasing cost at the margins for manufacturers, retailers and rbc consumers as they try to say are we going to shift production, some of manufacturers have shipping to mexico, what are we going to do now . Paul so, i mean the goal of the tariff policy is to force trading partners to deal with us. He has to execute. You cannot let the situation with china just roll forward the rest of the year and into 2020. Nothing anyone of the white house denies that but we need to get the deal done. The president also thinks the Federal Reserve is a magic bullet. Only cut rates, everything will be fine. But weve learned through history and obama learned for eight years you can cut rates down to zero and it doesnt necessarily right the interesting thing is all president s sort of prefer politically elusive policy it helps them in the short term. But i think we need the fed to do his job which is price ability and if we get in the business of the fed tried to correct policy mistakes, that could go awry in a lot of different ways. Paul you can make a case it should be where inflation is it has fallen some and the fact that prices, commodity price across the border not rising. They are falling. I mean oil is dumpy this week but the idea that there is a magic bullet i think is the danger. Youre right, we see that in europe. You have negative Interest Rate for the past five years and it is not produce growth, germany is now on the bubble of a recession. And the Southern Europe has i mean, its really depressed savings for pensioners. Paul can donald trump win reelection with one percent growth between now and 2020 election . Yes, he can. The reason he can is that the Democratic Left is one of the Democratic Party and they may make themselves unacceptable. It is a simple as that. But the economy is his greatest accomplishment. No question about it. Dictionary achievement, if it starts to go south, if the trade problems start to affect farmers, workers in manufacturing, it creates doubt and anxiety in their minds, it could suppress turnout for the president. Could make this election a lot tighter than it should be. Paul all right thank you appeared welcome back 2020 democratic hopeful, joe biden rolling is Climate Change proposal with the goal of the limited fossil fuels by 2050. Is this a political winner for the former Vice President . Applebees new loaded chicken fajitas. Now only 10. 99. I was told to begin my aspirin regimen, blem. And i just didnt listen. Until i almost lost my life. 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Paul that is 2020 democratic hopeful joe biden talking about rolling at 1. 7 trillion climate plan with a goal of net zero emissions by 2050. Hes going to go will be on the policies of his former boss, barack obama as he faces skepticism from the liberal wing of his party. We are back with dan henninger, kim strassel and wall street Journal Editorial Board member, kyle peterson. Kyle, what precisely is joe biden proposing . A map be the green a new deal but it is a leap in that direction pretty wants 1. 7 trillion in spending over 10 years. Paul federal funding . Is bigger than beto orourke s plan his own net net zero emissions by 2050. He went on a course to be electric, there is no date given for that. He was the new transcontinental highspeed railroad. Paul conversion of the one that cant build from california and cannot afford except coasttocoast caused stunning about conserving their present of land and water by 2030. It is a pretty big ask. More than i expected since he had suggested his advisors had suggested he was pitching to middle ground. Paul he talks about an enforcement mechanism, which he does not specify. How do you get to all of these dreamy goals if you dont have any enforcement . And how does he do it . That is a big question. That is a problem with a lot of these proposals. They have big dreams, they have big goals but theres not very much specific how to get there. He wants to have a series of targets, targeted emission cuts, he was the first of those two hit the enforcement mechanism which is unspecified at the beginning of 2025. Right at the end of his first term it could be a carbon tax, it could be a cap and trade proposal but we will let Congress Fill in the details essentially is what hes saying. Paul cam, none of us is the past been able to get the congress. Congress couldnt pass this three democratic senate, it always seems to lose on the ballot. I guess that is one of the reasons he doesnt specify it but if you cant do those things had you get to his goals . Well you can only do it through executive action. And this is of course, what obama did when he was there, when congress would not pass a bill for him, the house did it, it suffered enormously at the polls later that year, and so he turned in the end to his executive authority and your there were a lot of issues legal issues with that. He was challenged in court and i think one of the problems even if use really aggressive executive authority, he cant get anywhere near what joe biden has proposed. And it is one of the final issues of the plan. Paul all the candidates are piling on Climate Change. It seems i Climate Change now for the democrats is essentially required. And a big plan with a big number and a big goal and even zeroing out fossil fuels. Which employs what is the figure now . 1. 1 million jobs in coal and gas . Yes it raises an interesting question. Whats going on here is that th