Served as Senior Adviser to president george w. Bush. Karl, thank you for coming in. So describe the comeback, what evidence do you see for it . Well, i was suggesting that in addition to increase in republican enthusiasm and likelihood to vote thats been mirrored in a number of polls for after kavanaugh that this was actually starting before kavanaugh, if you looked at some of the individual state polls, for example, in tennessee up through labor day democrat led in 5 of 6 statewide polls, since labor day republican candidate Marsha Blackburn has led 4 to 5 polls conducted. My suggestion was that there was other things going on just besides kavanaugh and the other thing important beside natural increase in republican enthusiasm was the quality of individual republican campaigns. If you look at it particularly in the house since september, North Carolina 13, representative, ohio with steve, ohio 12 with troy, new jersey 3 with tom mcarthur, virginia 2 with scott taylor, florida with carlos carbella. All appear to be moving in republican direction. Paul okay, let me push back at that a little bit. Youre saying that the quality of individual candidates matter. Individual campaigns matter. I understand that but we have been hearing 4 to 5 six months that really the republicans fate is not in republicans hands, nationalized electorate, democratic enthusiasm that defeat donald trump and youre saying that thats not at all universally true . Well, it isnt, some truth in it because the underlying landscape matters a great deal. Florida 27, republican incumbent is retiring, very popular, ross, democrats dominate dona, tv anchor woman, salazar, everybody assumes sheleila will win, we find ourselves 3 weeks before election and the polls are showing that salazar is either slightly leading or dead even, why because she Ran Strong Campaign and her opponent didnt. West virginia 3, open seat, everybody assumed that the democratic candidate, state senator had the leg up in the most democratic part of West Virginia and then we find ourselves in a New York Times poll with Republican House delegates member carol miller up by 8, why, shes running a better campaign. Paul well, lets talk about broader issues here that maybe affecting us, one is the economy, a couple of polls i have seen because of the Strong Economy give republicans the em or democrats head to head, sometimes by double digits and yet it doesnt seem to be the main voting issue this year. Why isnt the economy working as well for republicans as you might think . I think there are two reasons, one is because when the economy gets better, people tend to to sort of assume that thats a given. The economy was very strong in 2006, in 2006 when the republicans lost the house and largely because concerns about iraq war and scandals among republicans but the economy wasnt talked about. Other reason the president needs to set the tone and focus on the economy and the president has bounced around from issue to issue from eye to eye testimony and lack of consistency in not only saying the economy is good but more importantly describing what progrowth policies hes going to pursue in the months and years ahead to make it even better. Those two things are missing. Paul yeah, i dont see any discussion at all about, for example, what is the democratic agenda on taxes, for example, i think they are going to come out and try to as i listened to them quietly, they are going to try to repeal the tax reform, at least in large part and raise taxes but you dont hear republicans talking about that. Yeah, and look, let me give you two examples of how this could work n texas 23, will hurd in 65 latino district that Hillary Clinton carried and don baken of nebraska 2 in a district that Hillary Clinton carried, both were considered to be tossups and both touted that the opponent will reverse tax cut and my opponent is in favor of a universal government run Health Program that will kill your private Insurance Plan and cost us 32 trillion and whats happened to both candidates, they have been moved off of the list of tossups and into lean or likely republicans and democrats have stopped spending money in districts. Paul will hurd distanced himself from the president on immigration. Right. Paul just as carlos cabella. Absolutely. Paul and thats helped them in those districts, so what about absolutely. Paul what about the president S Immigration focus in the waning days to have campaign, help or hurt republicans . Well, it depends. Weve just seen the first outlines of it. If it is defending our borders, thats got widespread acceptance, build the wall that has less acceptance, if it is extremely, against finding a solution for the dreamers and finding solution to path to citizenship for people who are already in the country itll be hurtful. Youre right, my point is smart candidates like carbella and hurd understand what the districts want and running smart campaigns. Paul talking to you again before the end of this thing. Yes, sir, absolutely. 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[cheers and applause] all cause because of the illegal immigration onslaught brought by the democrats because they refuse to acknowledge or to change the laws. Paul President Trump looking to make immigration a central issue in the closing weeks to have Midterm Campaign and threatening to close the southern border with mexico as caravan of migrants from honduras sits way north, the Mexican Government announced thursday that it is asked the United Nations for assistance in screening the refugees in an effort to stop them before they arrive at the u. S. Border. But the president is encouraging republicans to make, quote, the horrendouS Immigration laws and border wall strategy. Lets ask dan henninger, Editorial Board member Allysia Finley and Columnist Bill mcgurn. Allysia, smart strategy or not . I would say that i think what they are trying to do is galvanize the base. Paul right. Especially trump states or trump won in 2016 in north dakota, perhaps even arizona but where i think it really hurts republicans is in the swing house districts, really detracts or distracts from republican message of the economic growth. Paul its a mixed impact, some might help in some states right. Yeah, in those states i think republicans are polling ahead, what we are concerned is the house majority. Paul where they need to pick up 23 seats and 23 seats held by republicans where Hillary Clinton won. So do you think that a deal on immigration like a daca trade for Border Security of the kind that looked like it was coming together, would that be helping republicans now . It would help tremendously if you think of steve, Carlos Carbello in florida, improved their chances of holding those seats. Paul i remember eric paulson, came to see us and he said it sure would and hes in a tough race. Dan, what do you think . Well, i think thiS Immigration is becoming a liability for democrats. Oh, yeah, i think that donald trump did not create this 4,000 person honduran caravan coming up from honduras, right . Nobody seems to understand what happens with these caravans, now that mexico is actually calling in the United Nations to try to help them resolve it. Paul seeking Refugee Status presumably, right . Yeah, you know, the president of honduras himself claims leftwing opponents are creating caravans to embarrass him and the head of Border Patrol was down there a couple of weeks ago, he could not figure out what was going on in honduras. Paul so you the caravans are coming and somebody has to do something about it. Paul to the extent that trump focuses on caravans and cant have borders run willy nilly, that helps republicans. Because the democrats are in favor of sanctuary cities which is basically doing nothing, they want to abolish the custom ice, immigration custom enforcement. They are, in fact, doing nothing about what is manifestly a problem and i think especially in some of the big senate races this is becoming a problem for democrats who they themselves say try to stay away from the subject. I agree with dan, i think immigration is two different issues, if its about dreamers, people that were here when they were young, they didnt make decision, sympathy, if its about other kinds of issues like family separation, i think it works for the democrats this way, but i agree when you have a caravan trying to bumprush the border, thats a different kind of immigration issue and i think it plays in different districts. Do i think theres a danger. I look at my district, the competitive suburban district, classic swing district in new jersey where jay weber is facing very attractive democratic candidate, he would have been helped by vigorous case of the economy because opponent is making tax cuts a big issue. You know in states like new york and new jersey and california, people are complaining about the loss of the salt deduction. So i do think that the emphasis i do think that republicans in general have suffered from a lack of emphasis on how good the economy is. Paul so give these guys what if, why do you think they are wrong . I wouldnt say they are completely wrong but in terms of Border Security, yes, that do play to republicans advantage, you want the message to be on the economy at this point. Not the distraction, immigration is a very divisive issue in gop and candidates are going to be asked, why whats do you think about this, why whats do you think about that and that really puts them in predicament. Paul i also argue, dan, look at what happened with the border family separation at the border this summer. That was fundamentally an issue, okay, we are going to increase enforcement at the border, that was a fiasco and that redounded to the republican detriment in districts because they looked and said, why are we doing this and yet that was a function of the preoccupation with border enforcement. But i think the politics have shifted, paul, and the burden is now going on over to democrats for not having any kind of solution to the immigration problem in the same way that health care has become a republican problem because people are looking to republicans for a solution, they said they would do it, they really havent. I think thats whats happening to the democrats on immigration. Yeah, i think, look, again, immigration is one issue but when you have a caravan, again, trying to just come over the border, what people dislike is the lawlessness. I think that plays to the the advantage and democrats are incapable of saying that we should have any Border Security, i think. Paul yeah, well, if its sanctuary cities i think you guys are right but if its separation of families, i think thats going to hurt fathers who have been here for decades. Right now theres a caravan coming, right, that was 6 months ago. Paul all right, gentlemen, and allysia, two closely contested government races giving us early preview of 2020, perhaps President Trump can line alright, i brought in ensure max protein. To give you the protein you need with less of the sugar you dont. [grunting noise] ill take that. 30 grams of protein and 1 gram of sugar. Ensure max protein. In two great flavors. honking when your craving strikes, you need your wing nut. no one can totally satisfy a craving, quite like your wing nut. Hi, kids im carl and im a broker. Do you offer 4. 95 online equity trades . Great question. See, for a full Service Brokerage like ours, thats tough to do. Schwab does it. Next question. Do you offer a satisfaction guarantee . A what now . A satisfaction guarantee. Like schwab does. Man scoffing what are you teaching these kids . Ask your broker if they offer awardwinning full service and low costs, backed by a satisfaction guarantee. If you dont like their answer, ask again at schwab. If you dont like their answer, unstopand its strengthenedting place, the by xfi pods,gateway. Which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. Well almost anything. Leave no room behind with xfi pods. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Click or visit a retail store today. Paul two high stakes, governor races shaping up to be preview of 2020 with trumpbacked republican candidates in close contests with their Progressive Democratic challengers in florida polls show former congressman ron desantis running even with tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum, in georgia, leads stacy abrams by just 2 points. So dan, other than these are very important states, large states, whats the significance of the two governor races . Well, to a great extent, paul, they are kind of proxies for national politics, donald trump versus the democrats, democrats now personified mostly by progressive democrats like Kamala Harris, cory booker that would be your setup for the president ial in 2020. Here in georgia and florida youve got a couple of basically progressive democrats, African American, stacy abrams in georgia, Andrew Gillum in florida who had denied that hes a socialist running against two candidates who have aligned themselves with donald trump. So its a very conservative candidate running against the progressive. The other thing that i should point out, stacy abrams, for example, in georgia has spent 5 years enlisting black minority women, younger voters, getting them on voting rolls, a test of the democrats and the energy of Progressive Opposition to donald trump and shes going to be an excellent test of whether the democrats by running to the left but running with a lot of enrolled voters and energy can defeat the republicans. Paul its really interesting, both sides, republicans and democrats, candidates emerged almost from the base, base of their party, desantis and kemp wrapped around trump to beat centrist bush candidates. In the democratic side, two candidates, really the progressive energy, so you have far ideology divide. One of these two is going to win, its a very different government in both states. Well, i think thats right. You thought to consider republicans will probably hold legislature in both sides, you see Andrew Gillum, 15dollar minimum wage, Medicaid Expansion u free college tuition, stacy abrams supports many of the same things and theyll be pushing those, i think some republicans, you know, moderates may go along. You have to consider in kansas another governors race thats up for grabs, republicans, many republicans in the Legislature SupportMedicaid Expansion and some of the goals of the democrat. Paul adam putnam running in florida, member of congress and he lost to the current to desantis and i think putnam right now would be running away with this race. Yeah, im not sure. As you say its a black and white divide. I think its also a harboring for 2020 that if democrats can win on this progressive agenda, itll give them more confidence that they can take those things nationally against donald trump in 2020, it hasnt really happened yet but its also clearly where the party is, right, where the democratic. Paul where the energy. Both African American candidates in the two states that you mentioned, so its a real test. Paul to what are the republicans running on . Theyve had the republican governors now, what are they saying we will do in the next four years . Well, i think they are trying to moderate a little bit. You see in florida, desantis is talking about cutting taxes, cutting corporate rates partly to draw contract to gillum