instead begin to normalize relations between our two countries. >> welcome, i'm paul gigot, that was president obama unveiling sweeping changes to u.s. policy towards cuba in the wake of a swap that freed american contractor alan gross after five years in prison. the president announced the surprise deal on wednesday and said his administration will take steps to normalize diplomatic relations with cuba and eegs economic and travel restrictions. he also called on congress to have an honest and serious debate about lifting the trade embargo which has been in place since 1962. joining the panel this week, dan henninger, america's columnist, mary o gradedy and global view columnist brett stevens. >> mary, is this a better deal for cuba or the united states? >> quite obviously it's a better deal for the cuban regime, not for the cuben people. not only because we got one person who was spying for us in prison in cuba almost 20 years in exchange for three cuban spies that were in jail in the u.s. -- >> and alan gross. but the president insists that was part of a humanitarian deal he made with the castros. but i think the other big reason here obviously is that the president has legitimized the regime by restoring diplomatic relations. >> going to negotiate towards that end. >> right, he wants to have a u.s. embassy in cuba and open a cuban embassy here. the big thing here, paul, cuba right now is on the ropes. they are losing all of this subsidy money they are getting from venezuela through the oil market because the economy is in bad shape and oil price is dropping. the last time that sort of thing happened in cuba was 1994. that's when they had to introduce the special period, which was to basically start liberalizing the economy and they almost lost control. as the economy healed, they went right back to their police state. and they are getting close to that now and president obama is stepping in and bailing them out. >> brett, what do you think about that? >> the idea of lifting the trade embargo isn't necessarily a bad idea, the idea of changing 50 years of policy isn't a bad one, we've been stuck with the same one for so long. >> we endorsed it 20e years ago. >> right the problem is not a problem about the principle but the execution. i'm afraid we've given up too much leverage for the sake of what amounts to a photo-op moment for the president. we had a reset with russia. we attempted a reset with iran. we also had a reset rather anl gous to this one with burmese dictators, none worked because we gave up so much at the beginning so six months, a year from the road there was very little pressure we could bring to bake to make re -- bear to make the regime change. >> if we flood them with investment, if we put our arms around them and we'll get better results than we've got the last 50 years where the castros have persevered. maybe if we give them new information technology they'll open up? >> i don't buy it, paul. >> i think it's potentially very dangerous deal. the best way to think about this is it's anlgous to china. if you go do business in cuba, you have to be in partnership with a cuban. what you're going to be in partnership with is the cuban military or the communist party just as in china the opening enrich the people's liberation army. who's going to get rid is the cuban military. they have relationships with the russians and with the chinese and i think we're actually reviving cuba as a military state. >> i would draw a distinction with china. he let private agriculture flourish and you could have your own private plots, they don't allow that in cuba yet. >> i wondering if anyone in the white house understands how cuba works? the president used the word isolation over and over again in the speech. cuba is not isolated. cuba has european, latin american, asian investors all over the eisland but it's still poor. why, cuba controls everything inside. the idea we'll embrace cubans, we're not allowed to. you're going to drop the embargo and we're going to selectively decide who gets too do business in here so that we maintain control and run the economy. >> no matter what happens -- look, people have to keep this in perspective. cuba is a small highly impofrished island there's a talk of demand for american business. that's ridiculous, we're having a potentially fruitful policy with a small and des constitute dictatorship that needs a lifeline from the united states. >> you've got rand paul endorsing the president's position, other republicans like jeff flake favorable to it. then you have marco rubio and jeb bush, former governor of florida saying they are not pleased with it. why the split? >> let me mention two more democrats, senator robert menendez of new jersey. >> cuban-american. >> and former governor bob graham, democrat, both criticized the deal and said it went way too far. any politician who understands cuba as mary was describing it realizes what barack obama has done is way beyond anything. >> we've been criticized and i got the e-mails and you did, mary, from our editorial which was skeptical of this. we did endorse basically the prisoner swap, but they are saying, you're behind the times, we've got to get into cuba. >> if there are such big business opportunities there, why are mexicans saying, you go in. why don't they go in. i find that amazing. >> they can go there. why are they encouraging us to go there? i smell a rat. >> when we come back, hacker threat causes sony pictures to can sem a high profile movie release. did the u.s. just lose the first major battle of the cyber war era? get fast-acting, long-lasting relief from heartburn with it neutralizes stomach acid and is the only product that forms a protective barrier that helps keep stomach acid in the stomach where it belongs. for fast-acting, long-lasting relief. try gaviscon®. sony pictures pulled the plug on the planned christmas day release of "the interview", a comedy centered around the assassination of kim jong-un. after hackers warned against attack against the movie chain showing the film. leaked mountains of sensitive data and embarrassing e-mails in what the white house has called a serious national security matter. we're back with mary anastasia o grady. >> this is a case where the artists are much more right than the business. sony caved to a terrorist threat. who are we going to satire if you can't make north koreans the bad guy. >> there's nobody left. >> there's a business concern here that i think speaks something that we had to deal with ten years ago with mow mohammed cartoons. in this case, i can't judge fully but companies -- especially public companies -- >> let's say they had showed the film and somebody showed the film and there was an attack on the theater, they would be sued from here to the company. so i sympathize a little bit with them but they are making a compromise, mary in classic american first amendment free speech. we're going to be silent because they attacked us. >> yes, they are, i think they could have handled this a little better. for example, released it digitally, said if you want to be a patriotic american, turn on netflix and download this movie and cheer and eat popcorn and laugh at kim jong-un but they didn't handle it that way. >> maybe the u.s. government should buy the film -- >> and air drop into north korea and distribute it around the world. >> some people are saying this is really the possibility and u.s. government is saying privately not publicly, that they believe north korea is behind this. if that's true, this would be a case of state sponsored cyber terrorism. that has huge implications politically, it means even a rogue state that's isolated from the world in so many areas can attack inside united states. what are the implications of that? >> i think that it's very -- it's a lot of fun to make fun of hollywood and this was very embarrassing for a lot of people in hollywood. that was the initial reaction but i think that this is a very serious thing that the u.s. -- both the u.s. government and the brooder private sector and u.s. should have come to sony's defense and really been much more aggressive in its response. now the white house is waking up but this should have happened days ago because this is a fundamental attack on first amendment rights in this country. if we don't -- if we can't defend against this, we're basically victims of terrorism. >> what can we do about it? >> if it is indeed north korea, put them back on the list of state sponsors of terror. >> taken off by george w. bush. >> absolutely. >> let's go out to asia and get our allies on board. japan is conducting its own negotiations with north korea. we are not presenting a united front -- >> china has we believe is looking turning a blind eye -- it isn't at all for the obama administration, they stood up and did a climate pact with beijing. >> china is not likely to help us stop this in north korea. >> and may have been involved too. there's a lot being said, north koreans are not that sophisticated to go into sony servers and figure out who they could embarrass in which ways. they can outsource to so many sources. in terms of what we can do, the pentagon has for years said cyber terrorism, cyber attacks, that's the next wave -- next thing we have to worry about and there has to be a pentagon response somehow that really this is a national defense issue, even if it involves a parentally silly film. >> a comparable attack, us on them? >> no, think about cyber defenses a bit harder, to what degree -- it became controversial a couple of years ago, should the government help companies defend themselves? how much information sharing should there be between companies about what they are seeing and telling the government and trying to figure outweighs to defend against it. >> briefly, mary. >> i don't think we should be defensive, we should go on the offense and our response shouldn't just be proportional, but a serious attack. let's find these people and let's send them a message and they will tell them you can't do this to american companies again and certainly they shouldn't be able to travel in the world. >> when we come back, russia's currency collapse is putting the squeeze on vladimir putin. will the country's economic crisis weaken the rush dictator or maybe him more dangerous? i hadn't been successful. quitting smoking this time was different because i got a prescription for chantix. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. the fact that it reduced the urge to smoke helped me get that confidence that i could do it. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. some people had seizures while taking chantix. if you notice any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse while taking chantix or history of seizures. don' take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you develop these, stop chantix and see your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. tell your doctor if you have a history of heart or blood vessel problems, or develop new or worse symptoms. get medical help right away if you have symptoms of a heart attack or stroke. decrease alcohol use while taking chantix. use caution when driving or operating machinery. common side effects include nausea, trouble sleeping and unusual dreams. i love myself as a non-smoker. ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. with the ruble in freefall and the russian economy on the brink of collapse, a defiant vladimir putin blamed the u.s. and europe for the crisis gripping his country and signaling he would not back down over the crisis in ukraine. we're down with dan henninging and bret stevens and matt kaminski. how big a threat of is this plunge in the ruble and economy is going to shrink they think maybe 5% in 2015? how big of a threat is that? >> i don't know if i would use the word threat so much. it's hard to see who would replace putin. it's a significant problem, really significant problem. vladimir putin does not represent any party there like the soviet union you had the communist party below the leadership. this is a cult of personality. that is why putin always had to use russian propaganda to whip the russian people into thinking he was the guy in control. there was a couple of things he said in the press conference that struck me as interesting. one, he's now talking about moving away from an oil dependent economy and retooling it. going to take two years to get done. which suggests to me that putin is finally realized that he alone is not going to be able to rescue russia from the current problems that it has right now. and he may have to move into a direction that actually is slightly more rational. but at the same time, he is pushing that paranoia button very hard, blaming west for causing these problems. >> will that lead, do you think, to more adventure abroad. >> it's a historical fact that russian weakness has been accompanied by a policy of expansionist and not contraction. you're now going to see, i suspect, i should say, a putin who's very given to taking geo political risks and further incursions to create a land bridge with crimea -- >> and russia. >> and exactly to connect the two. possibly into the baltic states which would involve nato, possibly oil rich lands. this is not a guy who's going to sit still. i don't think he's going to revert to being a cautious economic manager who's going to apologize for his geopolitical aggressions in ukraine. >> what about inside russia, matt? you've been there many times and interviewed so many of the other people who are now either in prison or threatened or been silenced somehow. he's -- putin is playing as dan suggests, the nationalism card. your economy shrinks by 5% and purchasing power is cut in half. it has to have political consequences. >> two themes in russian history, the stable strong handed czar and other is timeless chaos. basically they have not changed fundamentally economically. this regime knows that its days are numbered, not sure how many days but there's a feeling and panic in the kremlin and russians are now bracing and saw them going out to buy appliances because they saw the currency shrinking. >> hyper inflation or high inflation. a feeling going back more towards internal instability, which will take years to play out. >> how does putin -- i think 70% of the economy is a commodities play overwhelmingly natural gas and energy. when was the last time you looked in your pocket and saw made in russia in a key chain or basic device. this is not an economy that's going to be able to change on a dime. >> congress passed new sanctions this week against -- last week against and president signed them, against russia, giving president obama the ability to impose new sanctions if he wants. as well as offering $350 million in arms for ukraine. should the president exercise those and will he? >> he should. but i don't think he will, paul. that's a bill robert menendez oppose. both democrats and republicans support the idea of sending say anti-tank weapons to the ukrainians, which would be a very smart thing to do under the circumstances. to hedge against any kind of adventurism. i do not think president obama will sign it. >> i think you can give obama credit for the sanctions this summer, but fund -- always trying to find a way -- the french and italians, if you back down a little bit, it will be back to business as usual. he will not send arms to ukrainians. >> if you console date the gains you already made, we'll ease up on sanctions and get back to business as usual, that's where he seems to come out. so i mean, you expect the same thing? >> look, this is the sanctions give him flexibility to do nothing. you'll see the same story that played out in syria, ukrainians will not get arms they need and that will be further induce. to russia to act. >> sounds pretty ominous. we have to take one more break. when we come back, hits and misses of the week. huh, fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. everybody knows that. well, did you know genies can be really literal? 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[ narrator ] on a mission to get richard to his campbell's chunky soup. it's new chunky beer-n-cheese with beef and bacon soup. i love it. and mama loves you. ♪ and mama loves you. there's something for everyone on your list at bass pro shops. get warm sherpa lined flannel shirts for under $20. save 25% on bass pro outdoor watches. and remember, there's still time to get a free picture with santa. time for our hits and misses of the week. >> i'd like to give a hit to former florida governor jeb bush for saying he's going to actively explore a presidential run. this is a serious guy and serious thinker and has a serious record of reform. time for a serious debate in this country, looking forward to it. >> watch e-mails come in, criticizing you for this one. >> this is a miss for new york state legislators and governor cuomo who just signed into law a ban on tattoos and body piercing for pets. now, i think that the new york state politicians might have something more important to do than putting a ban like this into law. but if they insist, i have another species in mind that could benefit from a ban on body mutilation, and i think that would make all of us better off. >> okay. paul? here's a hit to former u.s. prosecutor michael garcia for this week usefully shaming the most scandal ridden sports governing body in the world, no, not the nfl. i'm talking about fifa which overseas the world cup. he wrote a record into the bidding process for world cups given to qatar and russia. on friday fifa said they will publish versions of his report. >> and nothing will change, right? >> we should still be calling for the world cup to be taken from those two countries and given to this country and possibly the uk? >> i'm for that. if you have your own hit or miss, tweet it to us at jer at fox news.com. thanks to my panel and all of you for watching, merry christmas, hope to see you right here next week. president obama and his family kicking off the annual winter vacation in hawaii. they arrived late last night and expected to stay two weeks in the aloha state before returning to washington. welcome to "america's news headquarters". >> the president's holiday vacation coming after the final press conference of 2014 yesterday. guess what? raising some eyebrows and only called on women reporters, first for the white house, calling on eight of them. the white house says it was a way for them to recognize those jo

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