to enter the no spin zone. the factor begins right now. captions by closed captioning services >> i'm bill o'reilly, thanks for watching us tonight. agony, agony on the left. this evening's talking points memo. no matter how the debate turns out america will lose. dick morris disagreed. he will be here in a moment. but i am more convinced than ever that the folks understand it is not good for the nation to borrow another $2 trillion on top of the 14.5 trillion we already owe. i think even the dimmest among us knows that's bad. and who wants to keep borrowing? well, that would be the left. and its leader president obama. smart people on the left understand the situation. the consumer confidence in america stands at 58.5. that's a catastrophe. the historical barometer for a president being reelected is about 100 in the consumer confidence index. so it's easy to see the trouble mr. obama is facing. in the face of that, the committed left media is demonizing their opposition conservative republicans. >> i think i can go back to the high priest or the high priest of this tea party caucus. michele bachmann. i think she is a true believer. i want to show you something now on o'reilly, which is where you go when you want to speak their religion, when you want to do the whole thing with the vestments on and everything. when you go over to the far right you go over to bill and check out. here is michele bachmann. >> can i almost smell the inaccidents. do you have any idea what they are talking about? i don't have any idea what they are talking about. of course michele bachmann is a true believer. she is a committed conservative. no one disputes that the question then becomes why is the liberal media obsessed with michele bachmann and for that matter sarah palin? why? the answer is a bit complicated. the left is extremely disappointed that president obama's economic policies have failed so far. liberals are frustrated. and when people get frustrated, they tend to lash out. ms. bachmann, ms. palin are easy targets because they are outspoken in their opposition to the left, thus the lashing. but, again, it's mindless, the real deal is that most americans now believe president obama has lost control of the economy. continuing to hammer michele bachmann not going to change that. and that's the memo. now for the top story tonight. let's bring in the purveyor of dick morris.com mr. morris. i told you last week and now all the polls are saying the same thing, americans are putting the debt debate, crisis, however you want to describe it on the soldiers of -- shoulders of the left and mr. obama, correct? >> i didn't agree with that i do agree that we do not want to borrow more money. obviously you can't get off it cold turkey because we can't cut the budget by 40% in one week. but i believe that the republicans are on exactly the right track of opposing additional taxes, supporting spending cuts and demanding constitutional reform of a balanced budget amendment with spending caps on the federal government in return for a debt limit increase. >> right. but the tea party and michele bachmann, did you see the interview? >> absolutely not. that's a good bargaining position. and. >> bill: i have got to tell you it's more than a bargaining position. i have read thousands of viewer mail this week there are people out there who say we don't care if the economy collapses. we don't care if the checks aren't written. we don't want any debt ceiling rise. period. what would you put the percentage of those americans at? you are a tea party guy. >> right now, probably, i mean if you just ask the question, probably 65%, 70%. if you probe it and you say the consequences, you probably would get it down to 30% or 35%. i have got news for you, michele bachmann wins the presidency of the united states, she is going to have to raise the debt limit. you cannot cut the budget by 40% in one week. >> bill: you can't do it because of the american economy. not even that. >> that's just the economy. the defense budget. >> bill: do you want to seat stock market drop a thousand points. >> or more i do want to say this all of this nonsense and it is nonsense, i would use a stronger word, about how we are going to default if we don't raise the debt limit is ridiculous. first of all, the federal government owes about 200 billion foreign debt service the rest of the year. it's going to take over a trillion in revenue and taxes the rest of the year. they can pay it. >> bill: rove had this last night. the bottom line. >> wait a second, hang on. but then i also think that the republicans could make this go away in a minute bypassing a conditional increase in the debt limit, saying if the treasury secretary says he needs this money to avert default and he has got no other way to do it, we're going to let him increase the debt limit only to stop america from defaulting on its credit. the minute the republicans do that, obama no lever to hold over their heads. >> bill: i would be -- now i'm going back, i'm more of a tea party guy than you. i would do that but i would say in return you have to put in writing you are going to cut a certain amount out of the budget to even give you that you have got to do that now, here is the really interesting dichotomy here. we told in the talking points memo the consumer price index 55, whatever it. >> confidence index. 55. no president has been reelected even close to that. >> he won't be either. >> bill: let's put on the screen the latest quinnipiac poll and here are the matchups. president obama against mitt romney obama wins 47%, to 41 hers. president obama against michele bachmann he wins by 12%. palin, he wins by 19%. and by perry, who is not even in yet, he wins by 13%. how do you explain the disenchantment on the part of the americans toward the president yet when you put the matchups with the republican contender, he beats them all. each of those four polls is totally different. romney obama at 47, romney at 41. >> bill: 41, right. >> obama is losing that race 53% to 47%. when incumbent president is below 50% of the vote, all the undecided always goes against him. >> bill: every one? >> every single one. i went back to 1960 and i looked at every single race where an incumbent president was running for re-election. even when they massacred the opponent against johnson against cold water and nixon against mondale every point of the undecideds, 8 a% of thement to the challenger. >> bill: i just want to be clear, you say in a poll like this it's misleading because the undecideds and -- romney and obama. >> they are all going -- 13% are undecided in that poll. you say they will all go to romney. okay. >> now, the palin poll is different because they are the 53%. and secondly it's on people that don't like palin. and, therefore, he would -- palin would lose. bachmann and perry, the reason the president is at 5 oand not lower is they just don't know who she is. name recognition. the important number of the four is that romney won and obama is losing that by six points. >> okay. look, you are the pollster. >> look, i worked for bill clinton and i would take a poll and he would be at 40% and bob dole would be at 40%. i would say to him you are losing by 20 points and he would understand that. and that would be what we do. >> bill: i'm not questioning you guru of polling. do a poll for me. come back next wednesday. i want you to ask a very simple question. who is responsible for the giant debt america has? the republican party or the democratic party or both? got it next wednesday. >> got it. >> can i just say something about bachmann and palin? >> bill: real fast. >> they are existential threat to the democratic party because the democratic party is essentially based on women. women and minorities. and, therefore, when they need a conservative republican woman, that threatens them in a way that a man never can. and that's why they are soville i vitriolic. >> bill: gender politics going in there factor is mentioned in a white house briefing today all about the debt. lou dobbs is annoyed with both parties. dobbs will be here. later transformers 3 most likely a billion-dollar movie and the factor plays a role. we'll show it to you upcoming. motorcycles, boats, even rv's. nobody knows where he got his love for racing. all we know is, it started early. casey mears, driver of the number thirteen geico toyota camry. geico, saving people money on more than just car insurance. ♪ i like your messy hair ♪ i like the clothes you wear ♪ i like the way you sing ♪ and when you dance with me ♪ you always make me smile [ male announcer ] we believe you're at your best when you can relax and be yourself. and at thousands of newly refreshed holiday inn express hotels, you always can. holiday inn express. stay you. and now stay rewarded with vacation pay. stay two weekend nights and get a $75 prepaid card. >> bill: imhacket segment tonight as the debt debate goes on americans are becoming frustrated. here is white house press secretary jay carney today. >> there is a growing chorus out here of republicans and conservatives who acknowledge that we need to do this in a balanced way. i think you interviewed senator simpson who made that quite clear. i think bill o'reilly on fox news expressed that sentiment last night. >> bill: now, while i am a registered independent i am calling for reasonable compromise on the situation. no, no income tax rise. here now fox news business anchor lou dobbs both sides are at fault in the matter. all right. let's begin with the republicans. what are they doing wrong? >> first of all, they are simply intractable on the idea that they will allow the increase in revenue. >> bill: they have to be, come on. that's what they campaigned on last november and the economy is in jeopardy so i'm intractable too then. >> and i'm not. i'm an independent as well. i'm also a conservative, certainly when it comes to the operation of the federal government. we have -- >> you would raise the upper level -- >> absolutely not. i would, in fact, reduce income tax rates. >> bill: you would close the loopholes. >> absolutely. >> bill: you said income tax rise close some of those loopholes. >> right. >> bill: number one they are coming across the g.o.p. intractable in that matter. >> exactly. speaker boehner has been courageous and strong throughout he has to take the next step which is now to lead because this president is not leading and boehner is failing to fill that vacuum. >> bill: what does boehner specifically have to do? what do you want to hear him say. >> hear him say specifically rather than to say to the president we want to see your numbers. he needs to present now to the american people the plan to reduce the deficit, to reduce the size of government. >> bill: this is what we want to take out now in our -- >> -- i think to lead he has to do this. he has to discuss three things that have not been discussed by either party. he has to say what is a reasonable level of debt for this nation now at 14.5 trillion. >> bill: it's theoretical. >> $14.5 trillion. >> bill: that's not reasonable. >> absolutely not. second of all he has to say what's a reasonable time to balance the budget? these have to be concepts expressed to the american people. >> bill: boehner here is what we have to cut boom boom boom boom boom boom. i don't think it's going to harassment democratic side, first of all, do you agree with me that liberal measure is getting hurt in this debate? >> absolutely. that the perception of the folks. >> this president, i mean, is he looking worse every day in it. and at the same time, nothing is being done. he has an opportunity here to cancel out two and a half years of miserable performance. he could stand up and say we are going to cut the where -- >> get one out of two on this one, bill, when it comes to leadership, we will be in great shape. >> bill: clear to me from the cbs interview yesterday with scott pelley when he asked president obama are you going to be able to cut the social security checks on august 3rd and the president said well, i don't know, we really don't have the money there. it's clear to me that the president is going to play what he played before. of the medicare scare card. now he is going to play the social security scare card. >> this president, who was elected on hope and the promise of change, problem change has become a president who resorts to the rhetoric of fear. is he fear mongering and he did something that i think politically is so low that it is contemptible last night. he went to his favorite news organization, cbs news, and he chose to try to scare older americans dependent on social security. that's beneath contempt. >> bill: you don't believe that that would happen that they have -- >> -- not unless this president made the choice to do that. >> bill: not to do it because they have the choice. >> it's a political choice not an mick issue -- economic issue at all. >> bill: the stock market is going to go down a thousand points it's going to be really bad for the economy, i'm sorry. >> it will not happen on august 3rd. this pretense that august 2 s nd a real date. >> bill: i think they are going to get a deal. all they have to do is announce a deal. >> understand, please, everyone, investigated in the market, bond market, whatever security, these folks are smart. they are watching -- they are watching a game. they are watching people who think they are playing a very high level game and right now this president is screwing it up badly. what will screw up the markets will be if they try to push through something in two weeks, some contrive, nonsense they haven't read that they don't understand. >> bill: like the obama bill. i have got that i think if they announce a deal and take time to iron it out that that would calm the economic -- >> i agree. >> bill: that's what they should do. lou dobbs, everybody, there he is, very smart guy, lowe. take a look at him. there is a smart man right there. directly ahead, attorneys for casey anthony. very worried that her life may be in danger. >> get her out of jail. get her out of town. she can't be here. jack kels out there. >> bill: county state of florida protect ms. anthony once she leaves jail this weekend? right back with that report. 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>> i certainly did, bill. he was telling me that he does have one of his assistance looking into what it would take for casey anthony to change her name. as for changing her appearance, he is saying that the defense team is suggesting to her that she cut her hair and do something to conceal her appearance. he says that his client has probably almost as recognizable as the president at this point. after the amount of media attention she has gotten over the last eight weeks. >> bill: do you know what the strategy is? i guess they are going to let her out of the back door of the jail. usually the prisoners come out the front door. i wouldn't imagine they dual that because there is going to be hundreds of reporters there and probably spectators as well. so they will probably to try to secret her out some place else. and then, what, her attorneys? because the state of florida is going to say hey, once you are out of here, you are gone. we don't care. and her attorneys are going to take her from there, right? >> i do know that her defense team does have a plan in place. they are obviously not letting that out to the public for safety reasons. typically jail inmate would come right out that door and just get into a car and go. but in this situation i'm told that that is very likely not going to happen. my sources at the jail are telling me that in all likeliness, no matter where we are camped out around this jail, we likely won't get a single shot of her as she leaves. they tell me that they probably won't even let us know until at least 30 minutes after she is out of here that she has officially been released from the jail. they are saying that is for the safety of casey and also for the safety of those of us out here covering and protesters who have just been so many threats. >> bill: going to be like elvis, elvis leaves the building and nobody even knows where elvis is but elvis is gone and nobody sees him. look, this underground parking in that deal. that's how they are going to do it. they will get her out somehow. another casey anthony matter, there has been some witness controversies. number one, ms. anthony's mother, i guess, could have been charged with perjury for changing her story about chloroform. tell me what cindy anthony did and why the state did not charge her. >> well, computer searches done from the anthony home had showed that somebody back on march 19th of 2008 had searched chloroform several times. to the surprise of everybody, cindy anthony got up on the stand and said she was the one that had done the chloroform searches. the state using that as the premeditation for murder for casey. so, by cindy saying that, that blew their whole theory out of the water. well, then, they brought cindy anthony back up on the stand after getting her work record. excuse me, didn't bring her back up on the stand got ahold of her work record and brought in some of her co-workers, a person from the corporate headquarters in atlanta to say according to her computer records she was actually logged on to her computer that day actually doing work and sending emails at the same time that she was saying that she was actually sitting at home searching for chloroform on her computer, bill. >> bill: they were able to prove that cindy anthony, casey's mother lied to try to help her daughter, obviously, but they didn't charge her. why didn't they charge her? >> they are not exactly saying specifically why they didn't charge her. i think this is one of those cases where investigators did realize this was a woman in a very sticky situation. >> bill: so they felt sorry for her. >> she lost her granddaughter and there was a good possibility that she could lose her daughter. now we know obviously that's not going to happen with the verdict. >> bill: probably a political thing why they didn't charge. 30 seconds here. now there is an allegation that another witness was tampered with. do you know anything about that? >> you know, police are being very hush h