the deficit is the amount of money we spend over the amount of money that we take in. it's a big problem, as you know. the republicans are proposing cutting spending on social programs, including a restructural of medicare as well as dropping tax rates while closing tax loopholes. this is a sharp contrast to the president's budget plan. one of the ways the white house wants to cut the deficit is by increasing taxes on the wealthy to help make up the difference, that gap we've been talking about. this republican proposal doesn't stand much of a chance in passion the house or the senate, at least as it stands now. but the battle will certainly spill into the presidential race, and the races of course in the house and senate this year. the national debt, the amount of money we current leo stands at $15.6 trillion. you can see that number is constantly moving. in the past 30 days alone we've added more than $153 billion to that total. we're going to check this debt clock by the way at end of our show today to see how much has been added, jon. our brain room estimates in just the next two hours we're going to ad $304 million in just that time. jon: there was a time when they shut the debt clock down. jenna: it's hard to look at. think of that as we go minute by minute through the show today. it is primary day in illinois. we are glad you are with us, i'm jenna lee. jon: i'm jon scott. there are reports of problems at some ballot locations. mitt romney and rick santorum looking for a big win. the former massachusetts governor is spending the day in chicago participating in a campaign event at google offices there. rick santorum is in pennsylvania delivering a speech this evening at gettysburg honoring ape brahm lincoln. newt gingrich is moving ahead to louisiana, and ron paul is off the trail completely, no scheduled events. 54 delegates are at stake in illinois though rick santorum is only competing for 44 of them because he missed filing deadlines. and speaking of delegates, according to the latest tally romney is out front with 521 followed by rick santorum with 253, newt gingrich in third place with 136, and paul trails the field with 50. with us now the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to president george w. bush, carl roefrbgs also a fox news contributor. nobody knows political numbers better. so mitt romney is trying to regain this sense of inevitability, karl that he had after the wins in new hampshire and florida. if he wins illinois does he have it back? >> he has it back until saturday when we have the louisiana primary, and in all likelihood rick santorum is likely to win louisiana. i don't think we're going to start to see a more definitive potential moment for romney until early april when on april 3rd the district of columbia, maryland and wisconsin all vote and all of them are winner take all primaries with over 80 delegates at stake than johnsto. jon: you have said on this show before that you are not a big proponent that the convention could be a brokered convention. but all signs point to newt gingrich staying in the race to make it exactly that. >> we'll see if he has the ability to make it that. he certainly didn't have the ability to make it that in puerto rico or in hawaii. he's not going to have the ability to make it that in illinois. he will not pick up any delegates tonight. tonight it's a two-man race. i suspect from here on out it's likely to be a two-man race unless there is some kind of major event in the campaign that allows speaker gingrich to recapture a momentum. remember he was expected to win, said he absolutely needed to win mississippi and alabama and he came in second on both. jon: rick santorum is already down because he didn't qualify for the ballot in all of the districts there in illinois. he has said that if he wins illinois he'll go on to win the nomination. do you see any possibility of him winning illinois? >> remember we have two contests tonight. first of all we have a beauty contest, and he's hoping to win that beauty contest in order to affect the arc of the campaign. and what he's counting on is math. there were about 900,000 primary voters in 2008 in the state of illinois. we think of chicago as a democrat town but cook county cast 180,000 votes in the republican primary. the five suburban counties around it cast almost 300,000. two eurban counties that are long drives into the city but people work there and live in chicago 91,000. down state 300345. he's hoping to win this big and keep it close in these. and win the beauty contest. because as you point out he is unlikely to win the delegate contest. if you've got 54 delegates up for stake and you haven't filed in four congressional district with 12 delegates that means that you're competing for 42, and your opponent has already started with 12 makes it very hard to get to a majority of 28 among those 54 delegates that are up for stake tonight and i think it highly unlikely that rick santorum will win the majority of the delegates. the question is going to be how big a majority does romney have among the delegates? he's won thus far in the contest 54% of all the delegates elected, that would mean 29 is the magic number. if he wins 29 then he's won roughly 54% of illinois' delegates. if he wins above that he's increasing his margin and making it more difficult for rick santorum to win. jon: karl rove our fox news contributor. jenna: to a case gaining national attention. the f.b.i. and justice department are investigating the shooting death of an unarmed black teenager in florida by a neighborhood watch captain. 17-year-old travon martin was on his way back to his father's girlfriend's home after buying candy at a 711. george zimmerman says he was forced to shoot him in self-defense during a confrontation. steve harrigan is live with more in miami. where does the case stand now. >> reporter: we are getting new interesting details from the family and the victim's lawyer, moments ago saying that in fact travon martin was on the phone minutes before the shooting with a 16-year-old girl. he told her he was being followed, he was being pursued, he was frightened. she told him to run, he said, no, i won't run, but i'll walk fast. so of course if this case turns in to not one of self-defense but of a young man being pursued that would make it very different. the investigation is heated up. the department of justice is now involved, they will be working alongside the f.b.i., as well as the state attorney's office. this investigation could take some weeks. and it's something really the family has been pushing for. they say they don't trust local police. local police in defending themselves say they have run a color-blind investigation. they say the shooter, zimmerman had a bloody nose and a wound to the back of his head at the scene of the shooting. he claimed i was acting in self-defense, and police say that under florida's gun law they had no evidence to charge him with a crime. jen a. jenna: at this time there is no charges against the shooter. >> reporter: there's no formal charges right now. we are beginning to leer a lot morlearn a lot more about the shooter himself, george zimmerman. 28 years old, he has called police more than 40 times in the past year and a half often to report a quote, suspicious individual, and that is exactly the pattern we saw in this case. >> we had some break ins in my neighborhood and there is a real suspicious guy. this guy looks like he's up to no good or he's on drugs or something. he's got his hand in his waistband. something is wrong with him. he's coming to check me out. he's got something in his hands, i don't know what his deal is. >> just let me know if he does anything okay. we've got them on the way. >> they always get away. >> reporter: we've listened to a number of previous 911 calls also made by zimmerman to police. often they are about, quote, suspicious individuals and often, at least four out of the six past occasions that suspicious individual was a young black man. zimmerman apparently has moved out of his home saying there have been death threats against him, but they say he is cooperating with the investigation. jenna. jon: new developments to bring you on that horrific shooting outside a school in southern france. the interior minister now says the gunman was wearing a camera around his neck and might have filmed the massacre of a rabbi and three young children. the shooter linked to three other murders earlier this month. greg palkot is following this live from our london bureau. what is the latest you're hearing from toulouse. >> reporter: it's getting stranger and stranger. hundreds of police searching for what they believe could be a racist anti-semitic serial killer. of course there is a lot of security at that jewish school in toulouse, france. that was the scene yesterday of the killing of the rabbi and those three children. they believe the very same man killed three french soldiers, a north african muslim and caribbean descent in two other incidents in the past week and that he used the same gun, the same technique, the same motorcycle, and yes, jon, that bizarre high-tech twist to this case, officials now say that he was wearing in a body harness a gopro brand hd camera which would allow him to shoot video digitally while he did the actual shooting. eerie and gruesome, jon. jon: how are the folks in france react. >> reporter: their reaction is huge. french president nicholas sarkozy led a moment of silence in schools all across that nation of some 60 million vowing once again too find the killer. the terror alert in the south region of france is at the highs it has ever been since they've recorded these alerts. the bodies of those killed yesterday, we have learned, have been transported up to pairs. there will be a memorial service there. then they will be flown onto israel for burial tomorrow. the individuals carry both israeli and french passports. we've also learned that the funerals for the three soldiers who were killed in this rash of incidents will also take place tomorrow in southwestern france. jon, the fear now is that the killer could strike again. so far these incidents have been taking place every four days. the next chance, according to that schedule will be friday, which just happens to be the muslim holy day. authorities there, jon hope they can catch him before that. back to you. jon: you can see why it's so frightening for the people there. greg, thank you. jenna: the u.s. navy doubling the size of its fleet in the persian gulf preparing some say for a worst case scenario with iran. what it really means for our military, and the nuclear standoff with iran, we'll take a closer look at that. jon: a trueee eerie sight flashes of lightning revealing a tornado hidden in darkness, part of the severe weather hitting texas, and more could be on the way. jenna: take a look at that. mixed feelings as jon scott can tell you. jon: yep. jenna: in the mile high city. the denver broncos saying hello to peyton manning but it's probably goodbye to the hometown favorite tim tebow. rick has an update ahead with a major news conference set for this afternoon. what will tebow do, jon? what will he do? jon: i don't know, but denver is going to miss him. you've felt like this before, right? 2:30 in the afternoon, a lot to do, and you've hit the wall. but you got to get stuff done. so take 5-hour energy. just open it up, knock it back, and roll up your sleeves. 5-hour energy is faster and easier than coffee. man, does it work. you'll get that alert, energized feeling you need to get stuff done. a lot of stuff. wow. look at you go. 5-hour energy. when you gotta get stuff done. david: trox jon: strong storms with heavy rains flood the area. the national weather service confirmed a tornado touch the down 25 miles southwest of san antonio. meanwhile street flooding is causing major problems for drivers in the dallas area and nearby, tulsa, oklahoma. as you can see driving nearly impossible for many people this morning. jenna: didn't get rain for a long time. suddenly here it comes especially in the state of texas. hear is the eerie video jon told you about touching down of a tornado in san antonio. you can see a funnel cloud in the middle of your screen. when it hit there were numerous reports of overturned trucks and downed power lines, damaged roofs. really scary when you can't see it. jon: no. folks in texas and oklahoma not out of the woods. more severe storms possibly bringing flash flooding to some areas. meteorologist, maria molina live in the weather center. very scary stuff, maria. >> sometimes you issue the tornado warnings you can't really see the tornados. some of the tornados could be rain wrapped making it very difficult to see. when you see a tornado warning issued for your county you need to seek shelter immediately. basically where some of the storm reports were issued yesterday. stretches from parts of minnesota through texas. a very scattered or widespread area where we saw severe weather yesterday. and tornado reports, three of them coming southwest of san antonio like you mentioned, causing some damage out there to power lines and trees and surrounding objects. we do have a brand new tornado watch across eastern portions of texas and western louisiana until 5:00 p.m. central time. what tornado watch it means, conditions are favorable for thunderstorms to form in the area and possible large wind gusts and possibly of tornados. we'll keep you updated as storms move through the area. shreveport you're included and lake charles. some big cities. we'll looking at heavy rain through the storms. arkansas you could look at severe storms and also central portions of the state of louisiana and southwestern mississippi a lot of rain with these horribles. thunderstorms. we're talking eight inches of rain in alexander. many reports of rain in the area and western arkansas and oklahoma and images out of texas, flooded roadways. make sure not to drive through any flooded roadways. it will be very hard to tell how deep the water is. jon, of course we already have the flash flood warnings in effect. flood warnings stretching from texas up to missouri. jon: maria molina, thanks for keeping an eye on it for us. sound like a pretty scary day out there. >> yeah. jon: thanks. >> more updates on the weather as we get it. meantime how about a little football? jon: love football. jenna: manning madness may be just about finished. peyton manning, possibly the biggest free agent in nfl history is looking primed to sign with denver. we might get announcement as early as today. the question is real question is, what about tim tebow? rick, tebow on a direct call? what is happening here? >> reporter: i do not have his number but if anybody out there wants to send it to me @ rick folbaum on twitter. let's give you the breakdown. this is the information as we know it, jenna. the big winner here the denver broncos. that announcement expected to be mate official today. 3:00 p.m. is the sometime that a news conference set for. manning heading to a team that won a total of two playoff games over the last 13 years. if man something healthy, and that is a big if because he sat out all of last season after neck surgery, the broncos could be mile high. fans, some of them, are excited. >> peyton manning, i love you dude! welcome to denver. >> i'm a season ticket holder. i'm pretty happy putting $1,000 now. >> i think we need to bottle up peyton manning, and sell it. >> we get great national matchups. we'll on tv. >> have peyton manning and tim tebow on the same team you couldn't be happier about that. >> expect the tim tebow is not expected to be in denver. the team is expected to trade him. because of that, a lot of other fans are upset. >> i heard your heart is breaking? >> breaking a little bit. really is. >> you think we'll keep tebow? >> no. i don't think tebow will want to say. >> what will you do with the jersey? >> i will wear it to every single broke cogame. i'm a tebow fan. >> reporter: peyton manning's career in colorado is getting started. 36-year-old superstar expected to sign a contract for five years, worth $90 million. broncos-raiders, september 12th. that news conference 3:00 p.m. today where we should learn more about this new deal. one of the teams i should tell you there is talk tebow might go to, my philadelphia eagles. we'll have to wait and see. jenna: we will see. might be up to tebow. maybe he will stay. jon: i would like to see him stay. jenna: rick, thank you very much for that. you mark that downers i do have it, september 12th. will be huge, big game against the raiders. there is this big budget proposal. house republicans unveiling a new blueprint that proposes significant tax and entitlement reform in 2013. does it stand a chance of passing the senate? jenna: that is a big question. if you thought "the jetsons" were just a cartoon, get this. online retail giant, amazon.com, spending millions of dollars to employ, robots. jenna: house republicans unveiling a brand new budget plan moments ago, bringing the issue of america's future and our bottom line center stage in the political conversation. right now house budget committee chairman paul ryan is getting ready to take the podium at the american enterprise institute in washington. he will talk at great length in detail about the 2013 plan which calls for deep spending cuts in social programs and cutting tax rates to two and slashing corporate tax rate to 10%. that is just for starters. reining in government spending and skyrocketing deficits. the real question, does any budget stand a chance of passing? steve moore. steve, this is enough of a difference of ideas that maybe this one gets through? >> jenna, first of all, hats off to paul ryan. this is a guy who i think heroically and taking on these enormous enlightment programs and enormous debt grown by five trillion dollars over the last four years. he is not a popular guy in washington right now because he does want to cut back on some of these sacred cow programs like medicare and medicaid and food stamps. i think almost all americans realize we can't continue on this debt path of bore he aring a trillion 1/2 dollars a year. so he is the first politician in washington in a long time, jenna, i've been in the city a long time, actually been willing to take the bull by the horns and say look, we have to change and we've got to radically reform some of these programs and get this debt down. >> was intern of yours, wasn't he, steve? you see this type of greatness at that time? >> jenna he worked for my great friend and the guy i miss so much, jack kemp. interesting you should mention that episode of his career i think paul ryan in some ways is the new jack kemp. he is visionary. it will be difficult not just to get the president to sign onto this budget but get some of the republicans who may not want to cut some of these programs to go along with it. it will be a heavy lift to even get this through the house, let alone get the president to sign off on some of these big cuts that he is talking about. jenna: gene sperling, one of the main guys that helped develop the economic policy of the president said in an interview this morning when it came to the medicare part of paul ryan's plan, he said this process risks creating an actual death spiral for basic guaranty of medicare as more people are forced out of the system and those who remain face higher and higher costs. we remember the comercial, grandma in the wheelchair gets pushed off a cliff. will we see a repeat of that? >> you better believe you are, jenna. that is one of the things make a lot of hand-wringing republicans very nervous. they don't want to face the assault of democratic ads saying republicans are trying to destroy medicare. nothing could be further from the truth