tough challenge from newt gingrich, and rick santorum and ron paul, also still in the race which could split the conservative vote in florida. right now, though, we're getting brand new numbers on the early voting, already underway there. jenna: very important. lots of early voting taking place. phil keating is live in miami. phil, when we take a look at the role that each of the candidates is playing, it seems like newt gingrich is playing the role of the underdog yet again. >> reporter: he has to. every poll consistently coming in over the past few days showing romney with -- with a commanding lead, on average ahead seven points ahead of gingrich so gingrich, again, hope 230g a -- hoping for a come from behind victory. we have new numbers for absentee ballots, 600,000 total coming in for a primary that's going to pull out 1.5 to 2 million republicans, so that's about one third of the total vote. tomorrow, of course, the other two-thirds are going to go to the polls and that's why the candidates are stuffing hard once again for about the ninth straight day down here in florida, an expensive -- an extensive state, gingrich in jacksonville, again promising supporters a big come from behind. >> i'm very excited. i can feel it over the last three days, the end of close again, we just as we had in south carolina, there was this huge wave of dishonest romney ads and people went wow -- frankly, if all that stuff was true, i wouldn't vote for myself. reporter remember gingrich has pointed out he really wants to win florida, and if he diswint, he is saying he's not dropping out, he's going all the way down to the convention, up in tampa, in august, and he is very harshly attacking romney, it's going both back and forth, and he's saying there's no way the conservative republicans at the national convention in august are going to nominate a former governor of massachusetts who instituted romneycare which he says is pretty much the same thing as omabacare. jenna: we'll see. it's only january at this point. that's what gingrich has to say now. what is the romney camp saying? >> reporter: completely dismissive of gingrich's attacks and romney is on the tv air waves attacking gingrich heavily, almost every single commercial break if you're in tampa or orlando or ma'am, it's one of the two negative attacks on the other. romney saying gingrich is a house speaker who resigned in disgrace, and that he truly is going to absolutely secure the nomination. >> what was that back there? send him to the moom, he says! the idea of the moon as the 51st state is not what would come to my mind as a campaign basis for here in florida. >> reporter: that of course a jab at newt gingrich who last week offered in the space coast, in the eighth year of his presidency to establish an american colony on the moon, so one more busy day of campaigning during the day, both candidates traversing the state and it comes down, polls open 7:00 a.m. tomorrow in florida. jenna: we're looking forward to it, phil, thank you. jon onthere's brand new polling out of tomorrow's primary in florida and the momentum from gingrich's south carolina win seems to be dwindling, quinnipiac finds mitt romney has a double digit lead in florida, ahead of gingrich by 43-29 percent. rick santorum and ron paul both coming in at 11 percent apiece, but a whopping 24 percent of those surveyed say they could change their minds by the time they vote tomorrow. let's talk about it with stephen hayes, senior writer at the weekly standard and fox news contributor. so the question, stephen, is what happened to newt gingrich's surge? >> yeah, that is really the big question, looking at where the polls is today in florida. but i think basically, if you don't spend too much time overanalyzing it, he was down in florida, then he had this momentum coming out of south carolina, as you suggest, then things start of settled down again. obviously, he had two debate performances that were not up to par with his previous debate performances, and for a candidate who has said the reason you should pick me is because i am going to challenge barack obama to the lincoln-douglas-style debates, chase him and the country and i can outdebate him, having two bad debate performances in one week is a big deal. jon: and when he goes up against barack obama, if he becomes the nominee, he's going to take all kinds of criticism, the same kind that he's been complaining that mitt romney has been leveling at him. >> yeah, i think this is the wackest message that we've had from newt gingrich, maybe in the entire campaign. he was on the sunday shows yesterday, and he was asked about why he has slid in poll, why he's not doing as well, and what he has been saying is look, you know, mitt romney is able to raise a lot of money, he can put on these dishonest ad ses on television and i just can't respond, and he's asked about a debate performance and he says i've never stood next to somebody on the stage who's willing to miss characterize my views or misrepresent my past like mitt romney is, and the question for newt gingrich is if mitt romney is doing that, what do you think barack obama is going to do, and if you can't respond to mitt romney's attacks, how are you going to respond to a tougher, you know, better-funded candidate in the fall? >> jon: so let's look ahead for newt. if he does not win florida, is there any reason at all that he would want to step out of the race, step aside, and let mitt romney or somebody, you know, press forward? he says he would not do that. >> no, i think there are tactical reasons and personal reasons that he doesn't want to do that. for one, very few of the delegates will actually have been award by the end of florida so this is a long prosets, i think he's girded himself for a long balances. i talked to an adviser to gingrich two weeks ago that told me he was staying in through the convention. it's something that gingrich reiterated over the weekend. on a level level, i think he's really come to dislike mitt romney so any inclination to give him a path to the nomination is out the window. gingrich doesn't care it he stutles -- scuttles the fall campaign and makes things difficult come a general election for mitt romney. he doesn't like the guy. jon: so this has become personal. >> very personal. jon: he's 68 years old. it's not likely that he could do what tim pawlenty did and step aside gracefully and hope that there's maybe perhaps another chance down the road. >> no. this is not something that would be -- i mean, newt gingrich, he's the kind of person who if he's going to do anything, to be a president, you can't easily imagine him as a vice president. i mean, newt gingrich as a vice president wouldn't be your ideal cabinet or even a -- candidate or even a cabinet official. he wants to win, he says there's an early process, there's a lot in front of us. i think he could make a case, do well in the southern states, if he stayed in. there's the georgia primary coming up. it's got 76 delicates, i believe. jon: and he just picked up herman cain's endorsement. >> he's gotten several conservative endorsements which he's been touting, michael reagan, rick perry, herman cain. he's trying to make himself the clear viable alternative to romney. i think santorum, however, makes that a difficult case. santorum had a very good debate last week. jon: fascinating case and -- race and we will be there to cover it. stephen hayes of the weekly standard, constitute. jenna: more politics to come. in the meanwhile, new developments on the state of several americans prevent frd leaving evicinity, along those detained is sam la hood, son' transportation secretary ray la hood and he remains on a no exit list, could face up to five years in prison. chief intelligence correspondent catherine herridge is live from washington. let's start with that particular situation. how is the administration dealing with this? >> jenna thank you and good morning. over the weekend, secretary of defense leanne panetta called field marshall tantawa and urged him to take this exit lit. now two cabinet secretaries and the secretary are working the issue. a handful of americans, all employees of the ngos, nongovernmental groups that support democracy, have sought shelter at the u.s. embassy in cairo, you see it there, and they will do so until they're allowed to leave egypt. what's key here is the u.s. embassy in cairo is sovereign territory and limits the ability of egyptian authorities to detain or arrest americans. on sunday senator john mccain seemed to indicate that sam la hood was among the group. >> we are in constant contact, he is in our embassy, and we are doing everything we can. egyptians have to understand that this is a very serious issue as far as our relationship is concerned, and ultimately, could be a serious issue as far as the amount of aid that goes to them is concerned. >> reporter: congress requires the secretary of state to now certificate any egypt is transitioning to a civilian government before this military aid is released. they get about a billion dollars a year from the u.s., and the president has warned the egyptian government this no exit list does not meet that requirement jenna. jenna: really quickly here catherine, who exactly is holding these americans? is it the new g that is being voted in, is it the military that remains to have control over the country? who exactly is it? >> well, that's an open question. this investigation was begun by the judiciary. they are the ones who are leading it. though the analysts i've spoken to believe the military is really sort of behind the scenes pulling the strings because they want to maintain their control. we were not able to raise sam -- to raise sam la hood, and sam la hood told us recently there had been no progress. >> my family is very concerned for my own safety, as well as the family members of everybody else that works for the republican institute and these other organizations. it's a little bit scary for us to be facing these very serious allegations, but you know, also for the egyptian police that work for these organizations. >> when -- what la hood emphasized, he also this is larger and broader than this group iri and the other nan given monthly groups, he believes this is a broader crackdown on those who want to build come democracy in that country. gen jen which makes this story even more significant, catherine. thank you, we'll continue to watch that. jon: there is more tough talk from iran to tell you about, why the islamic republic says it will respond to any military threat in a, quote, crushing manner. all the latest over the tension in iran's nuclear program and what to do about that. jenna: and disturbing new developments in the case of a missing maine toddler. what police discovered in the home where ala region olds was last seen. jon: one survivor said it looked like the end of the world. what caused this deadly pileup on a major highway in florida? a live report from the scene, coming up. >> i figured if we would stay in the car, we would have been dead, because you got cars coming in like 80 miles an hour, just popping you like that. i didn't know what to do. with great grains cereal. see the seam on the wheat grain? same as on the flake. because great grains steams and bakes the actual whole grain. now check out the other guy's flake. hello, no seam. because it's more processed. now, which do you suppose has better nutrition for you? mmm. great grains. the whole whole grain cereal. jen jeanne fox news alert, out to california, 20 minutes ago firefighters got the call to respond to this. take a look at this fire. nicity paramount, california. we're hearing it's actually at paramount lot there. it's being described as an industrial structure, so what it is exactly that's burning, we don't have any information. we do know at this time, again, that it's been burning for approximately 20 minutes or so. no injuries reported at this time. you have firefighters on the scene for about 15 months now. jon: and on the roof. how would you like to be standing on the roof knowing that fire has already punched through other places in there? that's got to be extremely dangerous. jenna: you wonder where it's burning really. you can see the heat in the front there but obviously there's a lot for the firefighters to deal with. we'llston to -- continue to stay on this, bring you updates as we hear more. jon: this fox news alert. police in north florida, still searching for clues after a horrific pileup on a highway this weekend. at least ten people were killed, another 18 injured when dozens of vehicles slammed into each other on a dark stretch of i75 near gainesville, it was shrouded in blinding fog, as well as smoke from a brushfire at the time. survivors describe a scene of absolute chaos. >> you couldn't see the road, you couldn't see cars, barely. you had on your high beams, you couldn't see anything. >> we saw the two semi trucks sitting in the road, then we just stopped, out of nowhere, boom, somebody came crashing into him and literally, his car goes under the semi truck, like and he is smashed into the semi truck. >> we didn't have enough time to get out of the car, which i'm glad we didn't because as soon as he got hit another car came in at least doing like 80 and knocked it forward into the fir of my truck, but locally it knocked us along the side of it to where we didn't do the same thing that he did. >> i figured if we had stayed in the car we would have been dead because you've got cars coming in like at 80 miles an hour, just popping you like that. i didn't know what to do. jon: wow, scary stuff. with us now, an affiliate reporter from our fox affiliate, wttv, live near gainesville, florida, with the very latest. >> reporter: good morning. this has been the worst traffic crash in the history of the state of florida. it was absolutely gruesome. you just heard that victim talk about it there. i75 is officially opened, going in both directions northbound and southbound lanes. they were closed off for much of the morning because of that smoke and fog that had been hindering that part of the interstate for much of the morning. smoke and fog, by the way, is part of the blame for this traffic disaster. there was a 62-acre brushfire nearby and the smoke was going through the interstate and it made for horrible driving conditions, and we're now learning this morning an arsonist may have set that fire. we hope to have mo information on that from the division of forestry this morning. the car scene was something like a movie, cars, truck, tractor trailers, flattened and burned. at one point, you can see a car sitting on top of a pickup as if someone picked up that car and then smashed it on top of the truck. when theory cuers first arrived, just to kind of give you an idea of what these guys were going through, they couldn't see their own hands through the smoke and fog. they had to listen to people screaming and moaning in order to locate them and give them assistance as well. but again, i75 is open, florida highway patrol is investigating this, and of course, we're going to keep you up to date to find out who in the world set that fire at that -- that brushfire that happened nearby this weather, some 50 miles from here. jon: i think everybody can identify with that kind of terror, just driving down the road. elcidi, thank you for that report. jenna: some dramatic new developments in the search for a missing toddler in maine. what investigators found in her father's home. we'll have the latest in the search for ala reynolds next. the government is stepping up its investigation into the popular jeep liberty, what's happening now and what investigators are saying, coming up. jen it's a brand new week and we have mixed messages, inspectors are on the ground in iraq and -- iran and iran says it expects them stay longer. but then we hear things about new weapons that iran may be developing and the head of armed forces saying, quote, we believe the u.s. doesn't have the ability to take military action. in the meanwhile, we will strengthen our military's abilities day by day, we will respond to any threat or aggressive action in a crushing manner. here now, international security expert with mit security studies program, jim walsh. it seems like a contradiction, welcoming the inspectors and then saying don't you dare come close to us. >> yeah, i think most countries do this, where it's sort of a good cop-bad cop thing, where they're welcomed the inspectors in, they're going to join talks with the americans and europeans, the c15 talk but also sending a deterrent message saying don't mess with us, and if china had a big conversation, a public debate about attacking the u.s., the u.s. would probably respond the same way, saying back off, buddy. this is sort of normal. this is normal speaker national policy. jenna: let's talk a little about the inspector, though. what exactly are the inspectors allowed to see, where exactly can they go inside the country? >> i think this isn't just the inspectors, it's also people who are high up in the agency and i think this is less about looking around in the different nooks and crannies of iran and more about meetings with the iranian government and head of the iaea, or number two in the iaea about are we going to go forward, are you going to tell us what we need to know, set up procedure, are you going to answer our questions. it's not so much hunting around this as much as it is trying to negotiate or talk about steps going forward. so i don't expect big announcements out of this meeting. it's really a setup of what's going to happen later in the month when iran meets with the u.s., europeans, the russians and chinese. jenna: how optimistic are you about those future talks? >> well, i think this is a good news day as far as the iran story goes because iran is letting iaea in, it is talking to them and there are going to be negotiations. that's probably better than having a third war in the middle east. so i think that's a positive. but you know, we shouldn't get too excited here. i wouldn't go overboard. we're at the very beginning of this process. and so i would keep those expectations low, but at least it's pointed in a direction where there could be progress. but we're going to have to take it a day -- take it a day at a time on this one. jenna: i was quoteing from a joint armed forces staff from iran, talking about the new weapons they're develop, one of them is a laser-guided artillery shell, so obviously, they continue to work on their military program. we've heard again and again from the administration officials that a nuclear iran is a red line, that we will not accept. but what about an iran that's heavily armed, do we want to have the same response to an iran like that? >> i think nuclear is a different category that requires a different response but you're right to ask the question, do we want iran to have a big military, do we want any country to have a really big military. the answer is probably no. but when you compare iran's spend to go u.s.' military spending we're overwhelmingly ahead both in what we spend and the quality of what we produce. iran often makes these sorts of announcements that thank you -- new things they've invented and some turn out to be true and more often than that, they turn out to be bluster. even with this announcement it doesn't change the military problem. iran doesn't have force projection capability, they don't have the wherewithal to invade a bunch of countries, but they're going to continue to try to develop their military but obviously it would be better if they didn't. jenna: apparently one businessman inside that country is developing tank drones, minature tank drones to send to the president, mocking the administration for demanding to send one