points down in the polls. now we're leading in the polls. bill: larry sabato, center for politics, university of virginia. good morning to you, sir. first, if mitt romney wins michigan, what does that mean? >> it gives him real momentum again. he has had it several times prior. but this is a critical moment because next tuesday 10 states vote in super tuesday. the biggest delegate pile yet. the biggest day in the primary season yet. and he wants to do well in one state above all and it happens to be your home state, bill, ohio. bill: flip it around. because you're right, it has reached a critical state. what if santorum pulls off the upset in michigan? >> it's probably even bigger for him than romney winning michigan simply because the, romney's native state is michigan. if santorum can defeat romney in michigan, then he has a very bad chance to beat -- very good chance to beat romney in ohio. that is the state of the the 10 the press will focus most. after all ohio is the super swing state in november. it really matters what happens there. bill: good point. as of today, you warn us not to overlook arizona. explain that? >> this is becoming a delegate contest. there are very few people left who think this nomination will be wrapped up quickly or easily. we're into counting delegates. we should be counting delegates. arizona is one of the last states that has pure winner-take-all. if you get even one more vote than your opponent statewide in arizona, you get all 29 delegates to the republican national convention. romney is way ahead. he is going to get all 29 delegates from arizona. so he will win the delegate contest tonight. he will split the delegates more or less with santorum in michigan but romney will win the delegate battle tonight. bill: larry,, thank you. we'll see how the forecast plays out. larry sab toshgs university of virginia. we'll talk again. laying the table or setting the table for us. patti ann. patti ann: as larry said the delegate fight is key. there are 30 up for grabs in michigan and 29 on the line in arizona. there is also early voting in arizona. this is where the candidates stand. mitt romney in the lead with 123 delegates. rick santorum in second with 72. a candidate needs 1144 delegates to secure the republican nomination. bill: so then make sure you keep it here on the fox news channel all night long. full coverage the primaries through the the day. special coverage 6:00 eastern time on "special report" with bret. and 9:00 okay eastern time with bret and megyn. fox news channel your headquarters for election 2012. patti ann: mitt romney bringing out the big guns in michigan. detroit rock star kid rock jamming out for romney during a campaign rally. >> i'm happy to introduce a son of detroit, a friend, a guy who makes great music who introduces me by dvd everywhere i go. kid rock. ♪ . ♪ i was born free] patti ann: rock singing a live version of "born free". the campaign song of the campaign. the two went behind closed doors when romney went to the singer's home in michigan. new details on the deadly school shooting in ohio. here is what we know. one student is dead. another brain-dead and three are still hospitalized. that is five people total who were shot when the teen gunman opened fire yesterday morning. witnesses say the attacker walked into the cafeteria during breakfast, pulled out a gun and started shooting. one witness said he targeted a group of kids sitting at a particular table. hear is the dramatic call for police moments after shots rang out. >> we have three students down in the cafeteria at this time. we still don't know where the shooter is. patti ann: steve centanni is live in cleveland, ohio. hi, steve, what more do we know about this latest victim? >> reporter: the latest victim is identified as 17-year-old russell king, jr.. said to be a good student, socialable young man, very quick to smile. he was a student at a vocational school nearby. he went there in the morning and back to chardon high school for afternoon classes. memorial services are, planned. candlelight vigils are in churches around the city of chardon which is in shock and grief after these shootings. candlelight vigil at a church in downtown chardon. the other victim was identified yesterday. he is 16-year-old, danny parmetur. he is described as a bright boy with a bright future. he was the first to succumb to the gone shot wounds inflicted in the cafeteria. patti ann: the shooter is in custody. what's the latest with him? >> reporter: that's right. he is expected in court today. a juvenile court hearing, detention hearing to determine whether or not he will continue to be held by juvenile authorities by the sheriff's department. he being questioned. the investigation continues investigators have a long ways to go to put all the pieces together in this case why he would have opened fire suddenly in that school cafeteria yesterday. but, some of the students who knew it. j lane described him as and here is some of what they had to say. >> he didn't seem any different. he seemed just how he would be on a normal day. he didn't show any expression on his face. he was just, he was just t.j.. >> he seemed like he was sweet and not anything wrong with him. >> amazing what some people have hiding inside of them. >> reporter: there were pictures on twitter purported to be t.j. lane released just before the shooting showing him holding guns and holding up a sign with the date on it. turned out to be sunday's date, not monday's date. back to you guys. patti ann: steve centanni live in ohio. bill: on and on we're hearing new and frightening descriptions the moments the shots were fired. listen how some of the students described their panic. >> it was terror. everything had just gone tunnel vision. like i, i need to get out of here. you see glances of your friends laying all over the place. there is blood. there is people screaming. everybody is running in different directions. and you're just trying to get out. >> saw part of it, kind of the end of it go down and stuff, victims laying there. >> i never forget his face, the gun and the sound. bill: schools in that district are closed today. understandably so. administrators say grief counselors are on hand for students. any faculty shaken up by the tragedy. patti ann: well, filling up your car just got even more expensive. the average gas price rising again overnight. the 23rd day in a row. according to aaa the national average is up about two cents to the $3.72 a gallon. the soaring prices changing the way companies are doing is about. in texas, some gas stations are offering in-store discounts to hook customers. >> reason i come here i can always find $5 they want me to spend inside to get me the 10 cent discount. >> locked gas cap --. patti ann: experts say prices could soar past the $4 mark by end of april. bill: she is great, huh? saying what we're all saying what we're thinking every time we pull up there. some of the many stories we're watching this morning in "america's newsroom." there is a state, one state anyway, borrowing money from the pension fund to pay for the pension fund. does that sound crazy? it could happen in other states too. talk about a shakedown. patti ann: a plane's nose gear collapses during an emergency landing. we'll tell you where it happened. bill: a michigan melee. mitt romney said rick santorum sunk to a new low. what he dived and whether or not it was fair game. you decide. >> i think it is outrage just and disgusting, a terrible dirty trick last hour, by the way, late afternoon on day of election, hoping no one would notice, sending out calls to democrats and union votersers to go into the republican primary to vote against mitt romney. patti ann: the man who once played tarzan is now in trouble with the law. authorities raiding steve sipik's home removing two tigers and a leopard. the former actor arrested for not having appropriate permits to keep the animals. he argued he has done nothing wrong and planning to get his cats back. >> they say i'm breaking the law. i never broke the law in my whole life. >> unfortunately whether because of a financial matter or other reasons, he has not been able to bring his facility up to certain standards that are required by law. patti ann: sipek had his federal permit to enown the animals revoked in 2004 when his 600 pound tiger escaped and was shot dead. bill: state pension fund across the u.s. facing a multitrillion dollar short fall. there is new report that focuses on one state, new york and it's unusual civil for paying out benefits. cities in new york are borrowing from the $140 billion pension fund that they're supposed to be contributing to. john fund, senior editor, "american spectator" writes about this topic a lot. john, good morning. welcome back here. what is going on now? they're borrowing from the fund that is already underwater? >> you have heard of robbing peter to pay paul? this is it. this is a big gamble because what these cities and counties are doing is, around the state of new york as well, they're saying, look, we can't afford our pension costs. so rather than change the pension formulas, rather than dial back some of the benefits we're going to borrow from the pension fund that we're drawing from. this is like the new york lottery on steroids except the return is probably just as problematic. it is insane! this is exactly how new york city got into trouble in the 1970s. it borrowed money paved on something called revenue anticipation. it said well we expect to get the revenue the next few years so let's borrow money on it. the revenue didn't come in and new york city almost went under. bill: there are two ways looking at this and i will pose them both to you. those who support the idea, we're going through a rough period. we need to smooth things over. once the economy comes back we'll be okay. how do you buy it? >> how many of those same people predicted four years ago the economy would be still in this much trouble? none of them. you can't anticipate the future. if you're going to make promises on pensions you have to have enough money in the kitty or you have to scale back the benefits. several states have done that utah recently put all of their state employees on defined contribution plans. these are like 401(k)s. look, only 15% of private sector workers today have a traditional pension, a defined benefit pension. over 80% of public employees have a defined benefit pension which is much richer and much better. we have to equalize the bills. people bay paying bills for public employees can't have pensions more valuable. bill: this is slilt of hand you say. this is shell game. you have to guess where the money is going? >> can go out to times square right now, a few blocks from here and find a guy playing three card man tee and might be a pension consultant for the state of new york. bill: i advise you not to do that if you do, take a camera. here in the state of new york retirement fund, third largest u.s. public pension. more than a million members, retirees, beneficiaries in the system. number of retirees increasing more quickly than members joining s new york alone in this? are you finding this another states? >> almost every state has not adequately paid for its pensions. new york city is the worst. its pension costs gone up six times in the last decade. illinois is in real trouble. i find at least four or five states will run out of money for their pensions in the next three or four years. we have got to do something about it. the way to do it is, we have to go to more sustainable pension plans. get people in defined contribution plans, 401. cans encourage them to save for their own. otherwise these pensions will leave little or no money for other things we want to do. building roads. paying for schools. if pensions get so big other essential government services have to shrink. that is not good for the economy or society. bill: your point is well-taken. you call it an outrage and dangerous. indeed it can be on the budget. side. john fund, thank you. we'll keep eye on that. because it ain't going anywhere. thank you, john. patti ann: it was a wild finish to this year's daytona 500. >> here is, jr. to the outside. side by side with kenseth. matt kenseth wins the daytona 500. patti ann: from fire to rain, matt kenseth taking home the trophy in one of the most bizarre races in history. bill: did you see what happened near the end of the race. patti ann: we'll have more on that. bill: just got over a few hours ago. dying for your faith. an execution is looming for this christian pastor in the country of iran. anything not moving forward... is moving backward. 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[ male announcer ] want great taste and whole gin oats that can help lower cholesterol? honey nut cheerios. >> matt kenseth trying to win it for the second time. here comes junior to the outside. side by side with kenseth. matt kenseth wins the daytona 500!. patti ann: nascar fans seeing fire, rain and a historic delay at the daytona 500. but perhaps the biggest story of the day wasn't matt kenseth's victory you just saw but this. >> safety workers quickly on the scene. and this is a bizarre twist to this daytona 500. down in turn number three. patti ann: driver juan pablo montoya colliding with the jet dryer used to dry off the track and that caused a huge fireball that delayed the race over two hours. luckily everybody is okay. julie banderas live in our new york city newsroom. walk us through the end of that race. pretty dramatic. >> reporter: even if you didn't stay up and you probably didn't to watch it because it ended in early morning hours. a crazy 36 hours of nascar ended with matt kenseth the winner. ending anti-climactic after the crash that happened. juan pablo montoya's car plunged into a safety truck causing instant explosion of jet fuel inside that thing. the truck carrying and drying the track held 200 gallons of karo even -- kerosene that poured down the surface of turn three, creating a fiery explosion at nascar's biggest race of the year. montoya escaped relatively unharmed and his helmet was sinked and foot ached. he felt a vie abrasion in the car when it turned to the right. freak accident and massive fire stopping race for two hours. finishing at 1:00 a.m. in the morning. workers used tide laundry detergent. when the debris was cleared it was kenseth's race to lose and he won it with considerable lead. >> it was a tough one for us. first weekend with best buy and be able to win the 150s gatorade dual and back it up and win the 500 especially with all the little problems we had. we had a lot going on yesterday. feels pretty cool to be able to win the races. >> reporter: he held off dale earnhardt, jr. and roush racing teammate greg biffle during everytime finish. certainly exciting to the end. patti ann: absolutely. this was not the first mishap even at the race, was it? >> reporter: certainly was not. from start to finish drama. the event will not be remembered for actual racing or all the fluke things that plagued it. day long race was scheduled to begin sunday afternoon. look at that. rain. doesn't make for good racing conditions t ended in the early morning hours tuesday. rain delays would force nascar to push the race from sunday to monday afternoon. making it first-ever sunday into monday delay in the race's history. then monday night for the first-ever daytona 500 in prime time television. so a lot of people were watching. i guess that is the good news in all of this. patti ann: all right. julie banderas live for us, thank you. >> reporter: sure. bill: think about a rainout on sunday and a rainout on monday. patti ann: i know. bill: i turned it off at 140 laps left out of a 200 lap race. the thing went to 1:00 in the morning. they will not forget this one. want to take to you michigan. that is mitt romney up and early on the stump, 9:30 local time there? he has got a battle with rick santorum. this could be a late, late night later this evening. your wallet is getting lighter. you know that. gas prices on the climb to 4 bucks a gallon. look out america. can anything be done from washington? senator rand paul on deck will join us with his ideas to reverse that trend. your finances can't manage themselves. but that doesn't mean they won't try. bring all your finances together with the help of the one person who can. a certified financial planner professional. cfp. let's make plan. aaaaask me. 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[ male announcer ] tempur-pedic brand owners are more satisfied than owners of any traditional mattress brand. ♪ to learn more or find an authorized retailer near you, visit tempurpedic.com. tempur-pedic. the most highly recommended bed in america. patti ann: concern is growing for a christian pastor sentenced to death in iran because he renounced islam. as of right now sources tell us he is alive but his execution could come at any time, despite international outrage over his case. leland vittert is live in jerusalem. hi, leland. is there a chance this man's life will be spared? >> reporter: hi, patty. that is certainly the hope here that his life will be spared but there is still a death warrant out for this man's execution. his lawyer though says the iranian government amid all this international pressure has sort of toned down its rhetoric a little bit. youcef nadarkhani was 19 when he converted to chrissie anty. he became a pastor which is a crime in the islamic republic of iran. it wasn't until he started complaining his kids were taught islam in school when he was actually arrested and sentenced to death, complaining about such things and not eaching your kids islam in iran is considered an executable crime. there has been heavy pressure placed on the iranian government by christian groups and even by the united states government because of this death warrant being signed for this man. in the past couple days the iranians said we'll not execute him for being a christian. we may execute him for other things but they haven't specified what those are. patti ann. patti ann: how does this play into the larger picture what is going on in iran right now, leland? >> reporter: iran is becoming increasingly isolated here because of their nuclear program. there is threats of heavy sanctions. we're told iranian regime is increasing number of executions. you may get into a situation where youcef become as bargaining chip on the world stage. secretary of state hillary clinton has weighed in and members of congress and number of foreign governments says though think the execution is absolutely abhorrent and it should not happen. the problem is as ir