yet. was it official he picked up the state? most organizations are saying ted cruz. kentucky seems to be anyone's guess. we have obviously donald trump comfortably ahead. on the democratic side, bernie sanders wins nebraska. bernie sanders has picked up louisiana. so when you have this breakdown -- i misspoke there. it was hillary. i'm reading incorrectly. hillary won louisiana. and kansas and nebraska are sanders pickups. >> that african-american vote, so important in louisiana. hillary clinton has shown to have that. >> she has more delegates. the breakdown of delegates today could be anyone's guess here. it would appear there's always a delay especially in caucus states, how they award the delegates. you just don't know. in nevada famously last go-round eight years ago for democrats, hillary clinton had won the caucus state of nevada and ended up with barack obama winning the state and the delegates. so caucus states can do that to you. it can be very weird. conversely, you could have a narrow win in a caucus state, even a primary state, then get all the delegates. that happened to donald trump in south carolina. it's always about this delegate rewarding. how they are going to do that. i'm wondering for donald trump, you leave this night, i don't know what the expectations were going into this. but i think -- i think a lot of people thought ted cruz could do well in one. >> i think cruz did better than expected. >> that's what i think. >> little bit. little bit. that's almost like super tuesday in some ways. he did what he said he was going to do. >> meaning he said he was going to win texas and he won texas? >> yeah. he did a little better by adding oklahoma. >> and alaska. >> right. so he did a little bit. [ speaking simultaneously ] >> what is with her tonight? >> that's really good. >> that's better than your southern accent. >> i do a really good sarah palin. >> i heard about that. >> we will have some time here. >> i know. >> tap dance here too. >> i will do a scottish accent. >> one thing that is overwhelmingly in donald trump's favor is the popular vote. he is up significantly over anyone else. that gets back to something you touched on all the outside folks he's bringing into the party. that's his calling card. >> we had one person saying this is now the republican party. meaning the establishment is here and donald trump has just picked up the tent, walked 15 feet, dropped the tent and new people are under it. >> the most interesting thing about -- this is going to decide the general election, there is still an establishment in the republican party. there is still -- i don't even know if that's the right word. there is a traditional republican out there. people who believe in what is perceived to be traditional republican values. they do exist. so if trump brings in all the new people that's fine. he probably will. maybe some of them cross over the blue collar democrats and they vote for him. what happens to the other people? what happens to these traditional republicans? >> the candidates are tweeting. they state the obvious. ted cruz just tweeted out thank you, maine. donald trump just tweeted out thank you, louisiana. i guess that makes it effective. they are waiting to see how everything sorts out. we are going to have, if you are the leader, and you have 100 delegate lead, whatever donald trump had going into today, isn't the idea of the other candidates to slow your momentum down? did ted cruz do that? maybe splitting the delegates? >> evno. he did not. these were caucus states. the caucus states he won before or iowa, oklahoma and alaska. it was expected he would win. they were closed, only republican contests tonight that would benefit him as well. i don't think -- if donald trump ends up picking up two of the four, i think that's a really good night for trump. it's certainly not a road block as we move into next week and then the biggies with florida and ohio. >> just makes michigan important and maybe we haven't talked about it enough until tonight and that poll, one poll may be an outlier but it makes michigan more important. what if kasich wins michigan? at this point, nothing's changed. >> he needs a wild card. >> may i raise a big question? there's one more debate, right? >> yes. >> why would you go if you were donald trump? >> that is a good question. >> why would you debate? >> well, but if you don't -- >> i don't know. he didn't go to cpac. >> she's right. here's why. the last two debates have not helped him. he's getting worse with every debate. >> the reason -- >> he's not getting worse. he's getting hit harder from the candidates. >> he's not handling it well. >> no. correct. cruz is a pretty -- he did a great job thursday night. i think cruz versus trump, if it's just two people on the stage, i think cruz actually really hurts donald trump if it's one-on-one. >> interesting. rubio will be swinging for the fences. not that he wasn't already. >> i'm with you. >> chris wallace put up -- >> she's tired. >> i'm not tired. >> he's trying to help you. >> i'm trying to help the people who said what happened to you. >> we're not in commercial break? >> we're live. >> i said privately when chris wallace put up that full screen graphic, i said i didn't know a graphic made a slapping sound like that. he couldn't -- trump was not able to coherently respond. >> that's a really good point. he should sit it out politically. >> i don't know. i don't know fif it helps or no. >> he hasn't helped himself. he's still marching towards the nomination. >> governor kasich put out a statement. have you seen this thing? reads like "war and peace." he is saying he does have a campaign strategy knowing that the nominating calendar is front-loaded to benefit the other candidates in the race while it says more and more about a kasich candidacy the more we get into it. he's referring to michigan on tuesday, ohio on the winner take all day. i think going through this, i can read fairly quickly, he is positioning towards that inflection point being march 15th. >> he's right but the problem is trump is able to hang in in all the states, able to have a decent night tonight. >> that's a very good thing. trump can hang in everywhere. >> cruz -- >> he hasn't had a -- >> and cheaply. >> he hasn't placed third in any contest. >> is that right? >> i think she's probably right. i'm not 100% sure. >> he has always gotten some delegates. >> this part of the calendar has set up well for cruz. that part, kasich may be right. >> what do we hear from donald trump when he does speak? he is the leader right now. that could change. he's waiting for kentucky. he could easily say i'm picking up delegates in republican only primaries and caucuses where people said i couldn't do that. if you are a savvy businessman, as he is, you could make a very good pitch here. >> i want him to do what he did after super tuesday and the presser that he gave. >> that was very gracious. even his wife said that. >> the tone was money. he talked about the right things. he talked about jobs. then he had that debate -- >> then we had the debate. >> but again, when he feels like under the gun -- >> but we don't have a read how much that debate hurt him if at all. unless this michigan thing indicates in more urban states or more industrial states, so-called kasich country, as the governor likes to say, it did hurt him. >> i think it may have hurt him on the margins a little in certain places but for him to go out and win a state like louisiana today, where you would have to say maybe some people would have been offended by the vulgarity, to go back to the earlier point there are so many conservative people, they identify such in that state. he won the state so he's marching on -- >> people -- [ speaking simultaneously ] >> he got a lot of evangelical vote with that vulgarity. >> are there degrees of vulgarity? he seems to be proving that yes, in fact there are. the people who love him just love him. >> they really do. >> i could go on fifth avenue, i could shoot somebody. they just love him. karl rove wrote that piece saying if you are going to truly attack donald trump, you have to attack the actual brand which is the businessman's brand. you have to have people question which is why in that thursday night debate you had such a powerful turn with trump university with the questioning about just how many jobs has he created, how many have been legal, how many have been paid what they are supposed to be paid. if you attack that part of what he represents, then maybe the other candidates i'm sure their strategists are working on it. >> they wanted to stop people and get them to think about what you think you know about the guy you might not. noelle, i'm a big donor and i'm looking at candidates to give money to and i might be thinking after tonight you know, this trump guy, yeah, he's kind of had an even night with cruz but is still getting closer and closer. what do you think? >> i'll tell you what. i have had a lot of bundlers call me and feel me out and e-mail me with exclamation points on their e-mails. i think that my advice actually would be to hold your check. it's getting so close, hold your check. if you're not for trump and you are angered by what's going on, i think the obvious choice is to really look at cruz. by now i'm doubting seriously that rubio would be a contender for large donations right now. >> but he has a lot of money to begin with. lou dobbs was mentioning that. he has a lot of cash on hand. i don't know how much. but he could -- in florida it doesn't seem to be working. do you have any updates in polls that show he is making some headway there? all the ones i've seen have him trailing by double digits. >> yeah. the only time you will hear that rubio's ahead is when rubio's -- when he says they're going to win florida. i have not heard any polls that put him up. >> even if he loses florida he's still going to campaign on. is that possible? >> i don't see how a path is possible. i'm hearing the same thing as you. he's saying it and that's what the word on the street is. i just don't see how. it just doesn't make much sense. he's holding up what could be a real race between cruz and trump. >> do you think the fact he's a split tonight, that cruz, he couldn't kill off cruz because cruz is alive and very well, thank you, how much of this goes back to what my colleagues were talking about sort of a dicey debate performance the other night in detroit, maybe outside mitt romney factor, show us your tax returns, he's not what he appears to be, et cetera? >> i don't think that the mitt romney deal really did a thing to trump. what i do think hurt trump is that debate. that debate, especially when -- ted cruz didn't help donald trump. what really hurt i think were the hard facts that came up when wallace or kelly, i don't remember which one, put up hard facts and he had them in front of him and i think that really hurt him in an area where people are concerned which is his knowledge on policy and different issues other than just stating rhetoric. i think it really wounded donald trump, that debate in detroit. >> real quickly on the democratic side there were three races up for grabs. hillary clinton wins louisiana but had some problems in kansas and ultimately nebraska to bernie sanders. so the sanders folks would say two to one. two to one. they have a very good chance in maine tomorrow. that's their turn. that's a state where sanders has been polling very, very well. what do you make of what's going on with him? >> well, i think ultimately, i think sanders is giving it all he can give but i think clinton will end up prevailing. >> i see sanders going all the way to the convention. i don't see any compelling reason for him to drop out. do you? >> no, i don't think he's going to drop out. i see him going all the way, i just feel that in the end clinton is probably going to get the numbers she needs to be the nominee, unfortunately. i don't know how she does it. she's got this investigation going on and a presidential campaign. it would make me nuts to have two huge items going on. that's multi-tasking. >> but she's doing it to her credit, whether you like or dislike her. one thing i had to ask. say it's hillary clinton versus donald trump and you always hear from the clinton folks they were salivating at that prospect thinking he's easily beatable. what do you think of that? >> no. i think even -- no matter who is on the gop ticket, whether it's cruz or trump or whoever, if it is trump and clinton i see trump winning that. there are people who aren't impressed with hillary clinton. a lot of people are writing checks but aren't doing witneit a smile on their face. they are doing it out of obligation. >> we were talking about how donald trump fares. he has obviously been hit more but doesn't handle getting hit more very well. i'm wondering if looking at that, she is a fairly good debater, whether they know just what buttons to push to get him to melt down. he survives these so-called meltdowns if that's what you want to call it. what do you think? >> i think you're right and i think that you have got a fantastic point in the fact that they are looking at these, looking at tape, looking at his knowledge on different policy issues. they will hammer that and hammer it hard. i think that that's going to be something that clinton would hammer in a debate because she has -- she's an attorney, she's seasoned, she has no problem going for the jugular and -- >> no problem at all. >> no. not at all. he has no problem obviously trying to go against a lady. so this is going to be a very -- it will keep people watching. >> even throwing out the mysogenist thing, donald trump, do so at your own risk, hillary clinton. that's what donald trump has been saying. i just want to bring your attention to what's going on in west palm beach, florida. we have been waiting to hear from donald trump. he promised a press statement. he's not speaking to a crowd per se or celebratory thing. just sort of what he did very similar on super tuesday. a press announcement. that was the one with christie. >> i want to just correct myself. trump finished third in one contest, in minnesota. >> is that right? >> yes. >> we didn't want to say anything. >> the good people of twitter are following this very closely. i want to also say alaska, oklahoma and iowa were closed contests. if i said caucuses, i misspoke. closed contests like the ones tonight. >> you are pretty unreliable when it comes to sharing information. >> anything else? >> i actually unlike some people i know, admit when i'm wrong. and i'm willing to apologize. >> you do. that is why we love you. meantime, kentucky, we are waiting. i'm told, i think donald trump is holding off talking to the troops. my good man, when are you going to speak? we are waiting for that. deirdre has been going through these numbers. >> this is the more digital version of all your notes. i'm sure they say exactly the same thing. we really cannot call kentucky but what we can do is certainly pull it up. you can see 53% are in now. as far as this is how the counties are breaking out, trump and cruz, it really is neck and neck. i like what your guest just said about how when donald trump spoke on thursday night about policy, there were a lot of shifts and in some ways revealed some big gaps. you spoke about education, about national security. how this is breaking down in kentucky, this is something we mentioned, when it's a caucus, when you have to be there for six hours as you do in kentucky, that tends to disfavor donald trump and help some other candidates. we talked about how rand paul essentially created this system hoping that he would be the beneficiary of it. but in fact, for the moment it just is donald trump and senator cruz pretty much neck and neck. again, only 53% is counted. just to remind you, 46, the same amount we saw from louisiana earlier. in essence, this is what's going on in kentucky and of course, we can just take a look at what this means for the rest of the night. we have really been just talking about this cruz corridor from super tuesday, he did win his home state, texas, got to oklahoma as well, had iowa, alaska as well. quickly back to you. >> thanks. show kentucky again. early on with the initial reports coming in, trump was up by 12 points. now it looks like about a four point gap. 70% of precincts are in? >> now 70. exactly. >> they are still not kfr abdomin comfortable making a prediction. >> rubio is having a very rough weekend. certainly having a rough night. kasich as well. which as you have been saying, really puts the focus on the next states to come, especially for kasich in ohio and maybe michigan. >> you know kentucky as well. >> because i'm from the south? we are all one big area? >> oh, my god. i don't go to get the latest report out of dublin from colin. forget it. are you calming down here? on kentucky, what do you make of how tight it is? >> coal mining in the eastern part of the state -- >> those are the counties aren't in yet? >> a lot of them went to trump. >> do you know, with this state, is it 20%, i know it's caucuses but normally you get less than 20%. a lot of these type of states. you don't get a single delegate. would it be just trump and cruz? >> yeah. as i understand it. >> wow. wow. in a way, i'm afraid to come to you now -- >> 5% threshold in kentucky. >> oh, okay. >> there's the 5% threshold in the at-large and congressional district allocation. >> you stole that answer from her. >> yes, i did. right before you asked her. >> okay. he gets kentucky, donald trump gets kentucky, what does that tell you? >> it tells me that he is more effective with hardcore republican voters than people are giving him credit for. it is that -- i want to point out that because ted cruz won maine, that's trump's first loss in new england so far. so -- >> say that again? >> maine, because cruz won maine, that's trump's first loss in new england so far. and with the endorsement that he had in the state of maine. people in kentucky are very serious about caucusing. there was a lot of activity. >> that sounds like hell to go through. right? six hours, you're sitting around? >> what are you saying about the people of kentucky now? you don't want to spend six hours in the state? >> in any state, that's a long time. we like to go in, pull the lever and get out. >> southern baptist when you go to church, you are sitting there more than six hours. >> you are? >> we're used to it. in many churches you are captive. morning into the evening. >> i don't want to say it's irrelevant but this is fine for trump. the way it is now. the proportional allocation of delegates and the fact he's doing as well as he is. if i had such a hard debate performance and i'm being ripped apart by everyone in the establishment i come out of the first slate of states afterwards with a split -- >> in states that cruz is supposed to do. think he will -- i'm actually curious now, will he be saying good job by ted, he was terrific in these states, he organized well, little marco -- >> he's still a liar. >> little marco, on the other hand. >> liar, liar, pants on fire. right? >> he was doing the liar, liar pants on fire thing today. >> i know. >> frank luntz tweeted that trump needs to be at 366 delegates after kentucky and louisiana to stay on pace. to get to the 1237. >> will he be? >> i don't -- i would want to wait until they call kentucky which they haven't called yet. >> you had an inkling how it could go. >> i think he will be safely in the zone. but kentucky's weird. >> if i said that you would have said -- >> no, i just like -- >> you can say it. all right. it is going to be weird here because we have separately another poll out tonight that i started with but it's interesting because this same poll in michigan, the one i'm talking about, had donald trump up by a country mile, double digits. the latest michigan poll, we mention it because michigan is up for grabs on tuesday along with hawaii, idaho and mississippi. but if that is true, someone said it's an outlier, i'm just saying the same poll more than a couple weeks ago had donald trump winning. swamping. is something going on in the rust belt states? that will be fun to watch. >> if so, there it is. absolutely. trump better hope this is an outlier. if it isn't, that does speak to a loss of momentum. again, math wise, i think he's still set up very well to be the nominee or at least the leading delegate holder heading into the convention. i understand those are two different things. we were talking about the attacks against trump, i think the attacks may have dented him a little bit but more so for the general election than for the fractured primary we are still in. long as everybody stays in the race, especially if kasich does well in michigan, for example, and you have cruz having a good night now but we don't see much much a path for him and rubio does well in florida or -- >> all bets are off then. >> if rubio wins florida all bets are off. he's still down a lot in florida. he had no momentum. >> he had been getting 99 delegates out of there, if he gets them all, he's still -- >> still a ways to go. >> how does rubio close that gap in a week and a half? where he's still losing by almost 19 percentage points? >> they have been talking about missouri and north carolina. i have not seen polls in those states. you raise a good point. >> how does rubio in his home state close that gap? >> i feel like tonight is a very bad night for him. >> would trump ever name marco rubio -- >> no. no. no. stranger bedfellows in politics. the cpac chairman and the other big event for ted cruz tonight was getting the cpac straw poll. that is a big wind at your back among certainly conservatives who see in mr. cruz a guiding light. matt, good to have you back with us. i wonder how much of that was decided by donald trump skipping out on a speech because i notice he didn't even come in second. he came in third. your thoughts? >> look, i think it was a big mistake. i think -- >> would it have changed things if he had spoken? or did donald trump read the writing on the wall? >> you know, you know this. i think everyone knows this. conservatives know that ted cruz is the orthodox conservative. they love a lot of things they hear from trump but there's a lot of question marks because he ha hasn't been in public office and they don't know where he's been on everything and where he's going to be. doing symbolic things like coming the cpac and courting conservatives is more important for trump than anyone. skipping it sends a message not just to conservatives here, but to conservatives watching from all over the country that trump was willing to skip the most important conservative event of the year. they are trying to decide whether they want to be with this guy, they like a lot of what they hear, or just go with rubio or cruz. i think what tonight has shown is a lot of conservatives are breaking to cruz. >> now, is that too late, though? i'm violating what i said at the outset of the show that for all the fuss and attention to the inevitability of donald trump, he's only a quarter of the way there, maybe a little more given his pickups tonight. for cruz to be surging at this time, particularly with conservatives, you are quite right, i agree it's a powerful wind at your back but is that wind too late? >> i said publicly that i think donald trump is the likely nominee. but it's not done. he needs to be sure-footed in the decisions he makes. he's made some bad decisions. >> what does he have to do? what do you think he has to do? >> i think he has to make it very clear to conservatives who are at least two-thirds of the people voting in these primaries that he is going to be with them. that they don't have to be concerned about where he's going to be. yes, he doesn't have a voting record but he is going to be with them on these issues. i think he has to do that. i think what we have seen tonight is conservatives still have question marks about donald trump. i still think it's likely he gets the nomination but i think ted cruz showed tonight that if there is going to be an alternative to trump, it's more likely going to be him. >> all right. but that relies on some other guys hopping out or being forced out. obviously i'm talking about rubio and kasich. how likely is that? >> that's a great point. if they all keep staying in the race, it's going to be a muddled mess and it's hard for anybody to say they are the trump alternative. that being said, marco rubio said today at cpac that he would win florida. if he doesn't win florida, i think he's got really tough questions to ask himself. i think it changes. but here's the question. you started off, donald trump is in a very strong position to get this nomination. but he hasn't done this before. he's a rookie at running for president. if he can make the right decisions i think he's going to get it. the thing is sometimes he's erratic. i think he's been erratic lately. >> you know, did you get the call from trump? >> i didn't talk to -- on that particular decision, i didn't talk to him. i have talked to him many times. i have a good relationship with him. i just think they didn't understand the ramifications -- >> i don't want to get personal. who did that call go to? did he call personally? did his people call, donald can't make it? he's going to campaign in wichita, going to orlando? who made that call? >> i talked to his campaign manager to settle on what the decision was going to be. the decision was we weren't going to accept him on his terms. we would only accept candidates on our terms. >> what were his terms? in other words, he would have spoken but for what? >> yes. he didn't want to have to answer the questions. >> oh, i see. >> you know what? when you are the front-runner, you don't like anything that can throw kind of like sand in the gears, but when you come to cpac, you got to take the questions. you know what's funny is donald trump is really good at the questions. he's good at getting attacked. if you get a few boos from an audience that never held him back. i think it was a bad mistake. >> i was surprised but he might have calculated i might get a bigger bang for the buck trying to nail down kansas which he didn't. or maybe plant some seeds in florida where he is right now. we will never know. >> we will never know. i'm a kansan and i think he was always going to have a hard time in kansas because that caucus is dominated by social conservatives and evangelical voters. he's done well in some places but it was going to be hard for him in kansas. he didn't understand it's not just about coming to cpac. it's the fact that conservatives around the country watch it. >> matt, thank you very much. i bet you had very little sleep over the last few days. >> i'm a little tired. >> you're coherent when you're tired. we are showing kentucky because i think we have 73% of the vote in. that gap has narrowed. i think it was close to ten points. it's now three and a half. i don't want to read anything into that. >> fayette county which is lexington, kentucky, which is one of the reasons you saw that gap narrowing like that. >> what else could close -- we don't know what the remaining counties are? >> i don't know what counties are open. no, i don't. >> he's waiting to speak until he knows for sure. >> that's smart. >> yeah. >> what if the results come out and he's speaking, somebody heckles him. >> trump won near louisville. >> jefferson county is louisville. >> which is good for trump. >> the bigger cities in kentucky. >> that's where he's strong. he tends to do well. not across the board but that tends to be some of his stronger areas. >> you got cruz in lexington and louisville goes to trump. >> all right. we will take a very quick break here. we are waiting to hear from donald trump. this was taken as a press announcement i believe last week at this time. press announcement was supposed to be a big endorsement. now it ended up being a statement. he took some questions, lots of questions from reporters. that was a famous one with chris christie behind him. note to self, if you are going to back someone, make sure when they're speaking, back away. way, way, way. no upside to it. none. zero. quick break. when it comes to small business, she's in the know. so strap yourselves in for action flo! small business edition. oh, no! i'm up to my neck in operating costs! i'll save the day! for plumbers and bakers and scapers of lawn, she's got insurance savvy you can count on. you chipped my birdbath! now you're gonna pay! not so fast! i cover more than just cars and trucks. ♪ action flo did somebody say "insurance"? children: flo! ♪ action flo cut! can i get a smoothie, please? ooh! they got smoothies? for me. all right. you know, if i'm ted cruz, i'm thinking this is a good night for me. lot of people have given me up for dead when this race started, no one thought i could get very far. i am the sole alternative right now to donald trump. i'm behind him but i'm keeping pace with him. on the phone is kelly ann conway, cruz fundraiser who early on said do not dismiss this guy. after tonight, i think it's safe to say few will. again, when you are even with a guy whos running ahead, he is still getting closer to the destination you want to get to before, right? >> well, that's true. but i think when senator cruz says that he's -- if you want to beat donald trump, you have to do that through another candidate at this late stage. i recognize and i respect those folks who are spending millions of dollars for their hash tag never trump effort, but when you go to vote, the ballot is not going to say trump, cruz, rubio, kasich, not trump. you have to vote for another person. so i would urge those people to see it's a two-man race now and see if rubio can do the right thing by dropping out and endorsing senator cruz. >> you really think that's going to happen? >> it may happen. senator cruz is way behind in his home state of florida. he's 44 years old, has a huge future in front of him. but that future is a little more murky if you lose to donald trump and/or ted cruz in your home state of florida, especially when you have already given up your senate seat there. lots of print media saying this rubio campaign is way behind in establishing their ground game. you already had hundreds of thousands of early votes cast in florida. those are seen to be largely trump votes. >> we don't know that. we don't know that yet. it does put the pressure on the senator, senator rubio, to put up here. people have said that even if he loses, he's going to keep fighting on. rubio. >> that's fine. except you have to ask yourself to what end. in other words, if this is about [ inaudible ], then why would the delegates go to rubio who couldn't win it fairly and squarely? look, senator rubio is a fine person. i have a very good relationship with him. he adds so much to the conversation. but the point is he's had his shot. he had all the king's horses and all the king's men money, he has been endorsed by governors and not winning those states. he's not able to turn it around. if the goal here is to not win fairly and squarely and somehow, subvert the will of the voters and go in as the third choice into a contested convention and have your name split in there, that's very risky. i think the grassroots will revolt and i can't blame them. >> you got some press recently when you ripped mitt romney a new one and the gop establishment even though they are not all on the same page on this. some of them hate your guy, some of them hate donald trump. but saying that this effort on the part of romney and some of the establishment to stop trump from winning the necessary 1237 delegates was awful, horrible and the wrong thing and wrong message. what did you mean by that? >> what i meant by that, actually my comment went to some of them saying they would never vote for mr. trump if he is the nominee. i think that would be a huge mistake because they are already threatening a third party run in the republican establishment. so if you have mr. trump as the republican nominee, mrs. clinton as the democratic nominee and you run a third party republican, you are giving the white house to hillary clinton. they will own that, neil. they will absolutely own another four or eight years of a clinton because her husband got in there in 1992 after a three person race. ross perot got 19% of the vote, bill clinton got far less than 50% of the vote and became a two term president. >> by the way, in his second term, to that point, he also got under 50% of the vote. there's some precedent for that. >> that's right. that's right. that's my whole point. if you were to oppose mr. trump, go do that. i believe in the first amendment. god bless governor romney. but if the alternative to that is running a third party candidate, look, mrs. clinton gets 42%, 43% of the vote before she gets out of bed in the morning. getting her to 51% is a tough road especially because male voters really don't like her, trust her or want her to be president. she has a huge male gender gap. that all washes away if you have two republicans trump and somebody else running. i are seen cruz. i believe the nominee could be senator cruz. he's got momentum and is showing support tonight in kansas and in maine, two very different states. donald trump had done very well in the new england states until tonight. these closed caucuses and primaries where only republicans can vote, that's a whole new ball game. those tend to be more conservative. you don't have crossover democrats and independents coming out for mr. trump. >> well, but you know what's interesting, even in the closed states, donald trump will end up doing okay. >> he will. you can't take it away from him. he's a front-runner. >> let me flip this around. i know you don't like to talk about vp spots. but could you see trump and cruz coming together? it would be weird seeing as trump has questioned whether the senator was a natural-born citizen. could you see that? >> i could see that. i could see that. i can see a cruz/trump ticket, too. >> good for you. >> but i could see it and i will tell you why. who donk could ever i don't thi repair the relationship is donald trump and marco rubio. i join many people, i'm a huge fan of marco rubio but i'm shocked he would mud wrestle in the mosh pit with these sound bites and mocking his manhood. but if you even watched the debate the other night, the fox news debate which was fantastic, the moderators asked a great question -- >> i thought the fox business debate was better. i'm kidding. >> all the debates have been great. here's the point. senator cruz asked donald trump at some point, take a deep breath, count to ten. he's not mocking his manhood or making fun of his hair. that's so awful. i think that's the problem here. rubio and trump probably won't repair their relationship but trump and cruz, absolutely. trump and cruz represent the same strain of the party. the conservative -- >> the strain of the party that hates both of them. >> that's fine. that's fine. all their quote electable candidates who couldn't use are out of the race. >> you are right about that. everything i threw your way you batted out of the park. >> only because i see the one-two punch of trump and cruz really has left the establishment on their backs. when you add up trump and cruz voters, you are way above 50%. >> there is that, too. i'm going to steal all these ideas and use them as my own. kelly ann conway, very good having you. thanks for taking the time. >> all the best. >> can i get real quickly what's going on in kentucky? >> we do want to pull this up. you can see very, very close which is why as you have been referencing, probably donald trump is waiting to speak. you can see here 81% of the results are in and it really has been neck and neck. donald trump, 35%, senator cruz, 31%. so trump obviously here in purple. you have been making the point about the coal miners seeming to go for trump versus cruz. louisville, more or less called for donald trump. more than about a million people involved, of course, in the state in the voting process, the caucus process. we have talked about the fact that in kentucky, if you wanted to participate today, it is a six-hour event. you have to stay there. normally that would benefit somebody like senator cruz over trump but you can see for yourselves, donald trump clearly in the lead on that. some of the other things i want to point out. a 5% threshold. in other words, every single candidate has in fact passed that 5% threshold. then the delegates and there are 46 of them will be divided proportionally but this is still a good night for trump and still a good night for senator cruz. the 5% threshold met by everybody, will in fact be divided proportionally there. then three of those delegates are official rnc delegates. >> all right. interesting to point out that 82% of the vote is in. it's still too close to call. but it is looking like it is possible that donald trump can squeeze this one out, then leave the evening 2-2 with the kansas caucuses early on going to ted cruz, the maine caucuses to cruz, the louisiana primary going to trump and potentially kentucky going to trump. as we have all been talking, i want to bring you up to speed on tax returns. john kasich the latest to say he's releasing at least partial tax returns. what they do is they give the first two pages of the 1040. they don't add schedules or other forms which gives you a snapshot what they're paying. he released the first two pages for 2008 to 2014. they had adjusted gross income of $5.1 million and paid, over that period, $1.3 million. paying taxes of $376,000 in state taxes. that is keeping about a 30% effective tax rate. about what the others paid. we can say -- did we call kentucky? donald trump has won kentucky. which means donald trump is moments away from speaking. which also means there is a better than even shot we will get to go to bed before midnight. >> thank you, neil. when you think what does it look like? is it becoming a better professor by being a more adventurous student? is it one day giving your daughter the opportunity she deserves? is it finally witnessing all the artistic wonders of the natural world? whatever your definition of success is, helping you pursue it, is ours. t-i-a-a. put under a microscope, we can see all the bacteria that still exists. polident's unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes, killing 99.99% of odor causing bacteria. for a cleaner, fresher, brighter denture every day. try align for a non-stop,ive sweet-treat-goodness hold-onto-your-tiara, kind-of-day. live 24/7 with 24/7 digestive support. try align, the undisputed #1 ge recommended probiotic. all right. welcome back. this has gone a little longer tonight than we thought. we had a real contest going on. for the republicans, we now know our top two guys. marco rubio is not one of them. this could be a concern down the road. trump and cruz split the states with cruz picking up kansas and maine and trump picking up kentucky and louisiana's primary. it's hard to see how this will all break down delegate wise but it is safe to say it will be close to even which if you are donald trump just gets you closer to the goal. if you're ted cruz, separates you further from the non-donald trump pack. good for him. for marco rubio it is anyone's guess what the strategy is going forward because the pressure's on to do well in some of these follow-up states, most notably on the 15th his own state of florida. donald trump is ready to address the troops. he wanted to get that confirmation from kentucky that he had won. even steven on a night that started out worrisome for him. donald trump in a fairly good position now talking to the troops in west palm beach florida. he has been working overtime in this state wanting to put a spike in marco rubio. donald trump. >> thank you very much, everybody. i greatly appreciate it. nice to have you all at trump international. it's been a great club and a great success and we appreciate it. have so many of our members, beautiful. it's really been an amazing tonight. tell you what, i have been in competitions all of my life. there is nothing so exciting as this stuff. nothing. winning deals or winning club championships or whatever you want to say, there's nothing like this. it's really exciting stuff. and very important above all else, it's very, very important. so i want to thank the people of louisiana, the people of kentucky. it's been just an amazing relationship. amazing relationship. rand paul, your senator in kentucky, fought very, very hard today and for the last number of weeks fighting us every inch of the way and we won and we won by quite a few votes so i'm very, very happy about it. thank you to louisiana and thank you to kentucky. i want to really thank the folks from maine and from kansas. we came in second and we really didn't spend very much time. we spent two hours in one place and two and a half hours in the other and we came in with a strong second, so i want to thank those folks. i want to congratulate ted on maine and on kansas. he should do well in maine because it's very close to canada. let's face it. i think marco rubio had a very, very bad night and personally, i would call for him to drop out of the race. i think it's time now that he drop out of the race. i really think so. i think it's probably time. i don't think tonight he can get up and rant and rave he did great. he comes in third, he comes in fourth. every time he comes in third or fourth he says you got to be able to win and he has not been able to win. i think it's time that he drops out. i would love to take on ted one-on-one that. would be so much fun. because ted can't win new york or new jersey or pennsylvania. he can't win california. i want ted one-on-one, okay? so i think one of the reasons we did so well tonight and so strong is that we really had a good debate. i think we did very well. i was hit from every side, every angle that you could be hit from. very viciously, actually. but i think we did very well on the debate. i do say this. we are marching along and i think we are doing very well in florida. today i was in orlando. we had a group of at least 20,000 people. we had to send 10,000 people away, the place was packed and it was an amazing day. i love the people of florida. it's my second home. we're in florida tonight and i just want to thank florida for being, you know, just incredible. i'm looking at the poll numbers. even though i have never seen any human being hit with more negative commercials than i'm being hit with, i have to tell you. no human being should have to have $40 million spend on negative commercials. despite that we have a tremendous lead in florida and i think we are going to do very well. i think we are going to do very well in ohio. when i was a young guy, i worked in cincinnati. i think we will do fantastically in ohio. i love that state, i love the people of the state. hopefully we will do very well there. the biggest story in all of politics isn't even what's happening tonight and on super tuesday but the biggest story is the tremendous outpouring of voters coming into the republican party. you are seeing what's happening. millions and millions of people are coming in and voting and they have never seen anything like it before. actually, they are doing covers on "time" magazine because it's a movement. what's happening is a movement. i'm very honored to say that if i were not involved that wouldn't be happening. i'm only kidding. actually, i'm not kidding but i'm saying i'm kidding because i want them to say i'm a nice person. you are talking about millions and millions of people and we have a dynamic party and as a party, we should come together and stop this foolishness. we have something, i was thinking about it today for the first time. the establishment is very unhappy with the way things are going. i can understand that although i used to be part of the establishment. seven months ago before i decided to run i was part of the establishment. but now i'm not part of the establishment. once i announced i was ruyou think, they said what's he doing, we want people we can control, we want people we can give money to. if we want something for pharmaceuticals or electric or utilities or lumber or oil and gas, we have total control over our senator or our congressman. you know, i'm self-funding. i'm not taking their money. they have no control. i'm going to do what's right for the american people and that's very simple. so they're not happy. but i was thinking today because i love the republican party and i love the conservatives and i love a lot of people that are very good friends of mine, and i have been a member for a long time but today i was thinking for the first time, really thinking about this. we lost a great man justice scalia. he needs to be replaced and you can only replace him with somebody truly great. he can never be replaced. he was really something. a very, very good friend of my sister who is a federal judge on the court of appeals. and highly respected. and we have -- that was totally unexpected. it just shows what happened. totally unexpected. so we have a situation where they are now saying well, maybe we are not going to be able to beat trump the normal way so we will run a third party candidate and maybe we can't get on all the states but we will do enough that it's impossible for donald trump to win. i'm saying what are they doing. because we are going to a point, me, going to appoint a conservative great judge, high intellect, very conservative, something that will make the people in the republican party very happy. someone that will make the people very happy. if they run a third party or independent party, if they do that, it will make it impossible for the republican candidate on the assumption it's me or anybody, to win. if that means losing, that means that hillary clinton who should not be allowed to run because of what she did with the e-mails, should not be allowed to run, but on the assumption, on the assumption that they did that, it would be impossible for the republican to win. and obviously the independent or third party could not win. so the democrats would have an absolute free run. probably you wouldn't even campaign because it would be impossible to win. and what does that mean? that means that automatically, they are going to appoint very, very, very liberal judges and all of this time time that the republicans are fighting saying that we don't want president obama to appoint the judge, it's not going to matter because the new president who would be a democrat would appoint the judge so it no longer matters. and you probably are talking about, because it just seems to be the appointment of three, four, or five supreme court judges. and you got to start thinking about that, folks. because anybody that does a third party, that's what it's going to mean. very simple. it guarantees, 100% guarantees the election of the democrat. that means the appointment of supreme court judges, three, four or five. that is a total wipeout for conservatives and for republins