predictions. those people are hillary and bill clinton. you can't blame hillary for getting sick and broken after falling from such great heights. every expert in the world told her she would easily win the presidency. it wasn't just news week who constantly shouted her she-win. frank thrunts tweeted on election night quote hillary clinton will be the next president of the united states." no, frank, no she won't. frank wasn't alone in his wishful thinking. the new york sometimes upshot showed her with an 85% chance of winning. larry sabato's crystal ball pegged her at 322. and this was:00 p.m. election -- this was 9:00 p.m. election night. it wasn't just the buildup to the big night. the washw post predicted smart white women would be so grossed out by donald trump they would usher in the first female president. one writer called the fallout an apocalyptic election scenario. columnist dana milbeck wrote, i'm so certain he won't win the nomination that i'll eat my words if he does. and he did. dana and his lady name gobbled the newsprint right up. here is a clip. and of courts never trumpers swoirp and down there would be a conservative independent candidate. temp. they have backers and resources to make them viable. i was hoping gary johnson would build on his goodwill and get on the debate stage in 2016. boy, was i wrong. everyone was wrong. even donald trump admitted the morning of november 8, he didn't think was going to win. at least hillary lost and frank luntz didn't promise is to eat his hair. that would be almost impossible to recover from. i'm here, you are there, i'm kennedy. the truth is just about everybody got all the big political stories from 2016 wrong from brexit all way to our only election. except for a few of wise journalists, namely eric bolling and lou dobbs. but perhaps no one was more wrong than the washington examiner's senior columnist. tim carney joins me now. tim, welcome back. >> thank you very much. a very kind introduction. how did you blow it? >> in the general election i trusted the polls. aggregate of the polls, you average them out, and you look at them closely and you are right. going back work for bob know snracbob novak in2002. there was another way i deserve the mockery of the masses. since 2002, i have been saying populists were going to take over the republican party. and when the populist came to take over the republican party, i said i don't think this is the guy who is going to do it. kennedy: you talk a lot about projection. i think it was people own personal feeling that colored the outcome of their analysis or polling. and in 2009, in your book obamanomics, you wrote about the rise of populism. but you thought it would be tethered to an ideology. >> libertarian and free market populism. it would be railing against crony capitalism and getting the power out of washington. but the regular person out there isn't an ideologue. they are people who know what they like and what they don't like, who the good buys are, and who the bad guys are. that's what donald trump was, that regular guy who happened to be a billionaire living in a mansion on top of new york city. kennedy: people had strong feeling either way and not listening to the people who would cast the deciding votes. do you think people will ever trust polls again? >> not for a long time. what i always told people you have one poilt's wrong, or a poll might be wrong by a couple of points. the magnitude of the error wasn't so huge. but in every state was in the same direction and it was enough to cross the threshold from a hillary to a trump win. unless polling reforms itself it will be impossible to get anybody to trust it. hopefully while be more sceptical that it was this year. tim carney, thanks so much for being here. merry christmas and happy new year. now it's time top move on to the guilded party panel. we also have anthony fisher from reason.com. and a sharp dressed imagine named tom shillue, the host of "red eye." for all the folks out there who don't like that donald trump, and michael moore stands with you. he was one of the few people who predicted a trump victory. he now has an attack plan and it's deliciously lame and lazy. he suggests the following. warn politicians they will be held accountable right to the dnc. form an anti-trump rapid response team. pretest the inauguration and run for office yourself. the president-elect must be quaking in his armani boots. i thought it was pretty funny. because michael moore also wrote, all hope is not lost, there are more us than there are of them. but for progressives who hate donald trump, all hope is lost. >> it is lost. he's going to be the president and he will have the powers that the president has. and really strange people are hoping he does a bad job just to prove themselves right. i hope he does a good job. i wasn't a trump supporter. as a libertarian i never had faith in any president. but you can't be rooting against the guy. you look sad. you look sad. if you like someone but they get married, you go, there is always divorce it might be true, but it's time to move on with your life. kennedy: what lazy talking points. these were people who first had faith? jill stein's recounts. then they relied on the hamilton electors. >> rapid response teams have always been politically effective. there is something to be said for the fact that because bernie sanders's likability rating was so much higher than hillary clinton's he may have beaten trump. but that doesn't mean america was ready for 270 democratic socialists in congress. it doesn't mean we'll go full mike until moore. >> but there it is. the deal is sealed. i have been saying the same thing. i agree with michael moore, if you have a political movement and you are trying to get traction, protesting is a fine first stem. before it fizzles out after a few days or few weeks. so you should run people for office. >> what he is going to do isn't going to help the democratic party or american left. he's going to get the about there are wing of the party elected to many offices. it will make them feel happy. they are the far left of the party, the progressives. that's what he wants. michael moore loves being an activist. he wants he and his friends and people who think like him to have more political power. i don't think it will translate into a majority. but for him it doesn't matter. >> i don't think they will win at's elections. they don't like campaign spending. and free campaign spending is how bernie sanders was able to make such a run at hillary clinton. kennedy: i think one the best phrases i heard post election was joe biden summed it up by saying you can't eat equality. and you are not going to get enough people on board if it's not going to improve their lives. >> none of that will affect michael moore. so it's easy to have his ideological purity. >> meantime, in new york city, mayor bill deblasio's administration picking a fight with the president-elect. this time it's over yesterday's bomb scare. people were running for the doors and their lives. cops had to evacuate the place after someone left a bag of toys. sean spice saying back to work at trump tower after a false alarm. thanks nypd. eric phillips responded, no problems, we'll send you the bill. >> was thanks nypd a dig? setting a tone is tough. kennedy: it's very tough in texts or tweet. >> this is not the first time a president has come from manhattan. fdr and teddy roosevelt did. hillary clinton is not only from chappaqua, new york. and security measures up there. kennedy: i think donald trump came to manhattan a lot. >> keep it off twitter. if mother is having a problem with her baby daddy, there may be problems but it's not classy and it's not good for the kid. kennedy: you don't necessarily have to advertise it. but it is expensive. it costs a lot of money. >> if obama were doing this to taxpayers, conservatives would be mad. >> what's up with trump tower. it's like a mall and his home and a high security area? it's not functioning well right now. kennedy: i avoid fifth avenue where i used the to lunch and shop. >> there is literally secret service for pedestrian outside of tiffany's. they have to update that movie. kennedy: i didn't realize katharine hepburn was a prostitute. >> audrey hepburn. kennedy: what did i say? >> it's fun to rewatch any movie and manage the lead character is a prostitute. kennedy: the party panel returning a little later to discuss why actor nicholas cage could pass up the role of a lifetime. secretary of state john kerry adding to a growing showdown with the incoming trump administration. i'm asking ambassador john bolton who has the upper hand. i wonder what he will say. hey there, starting your search for the right used car? i don't want one that's had a bunch of owners just say, show me cars with only one owner find the cars you want, avoid the ones you don't plus you get a free carfax® report with every listing it's perfect. start your used car search at carfax.com kennedy: had the obama administration been a friend and ally to obama? john kerry purposed back on that idea after accusations the current white house rigged the current u.n. vote to make the u.n. look bad. >> this administration has been israel's greatest friend and supporters with an absolutely unwavering commitment to protecting its legitimacy. kennedy: the israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu responded. >> i have no doubt our alliance will endure. the profound disagreement when have had with the obama administration and will become even stronger in the future. but now i must express my deep disappointment with the speech today of john kerry. a speech that was almost as unbalanced as the anti-israel resolution passed at the up n. last week. kennedy: last week the u.s. abstained from a vote to declare some israeli settlements illegal. that caused a fury in israel and it caused donald trump to say he will fix everything after election day, but will it be too late? joining us is former ambassador to the up n., john bowl d to the u.n. -- former ambassador to the u.n., john bolton. john kerry says the u.s. has been the greatest friend to israel and benjamin netanyahu says he's very disappointed. what did you see today in both men? >> from kerry it's hard to say whether he was more mendacious or delusional. this is ostensibly about settlements but it's a reversal of five decades of bipartisan american foreign policy it all but abandons the notion real peace-only come from the parties themselves and aban donts the iconic u.n. security council resolution 242 and 338 adopted after the 67-73 wars that created the policy we call land for peace. this resolution says it's not israel's land to give away. you are stuck at the 67 pound dries from 1949 and that's what you will have to live with. i think it reflects both the ideology and frustration of obama and kerry and hillary clinton while we are at it, that they just got tired of putting up with israel so they decided to impose their view of what's good and will allow israel the live in security. kennedy: their view seems to be west bank story. so instead of the sharks versus the jets, it's obama and the palestinian authority versus netanyahu and donald trump. how does this play out? >> this could be, i hope, the last scene in a very bad play called the two-state solution. john kerry said the two state solution is in serious trouble. it's dared than a doornail. it's not going to work. kennedy: you proposed a 3-state solution be describe that. >> it would divide the west bank and give whatever part israel doesn't want basically to jordan. this would and solution that would be hard to implement because egypt doesn't want the gassa strip and the palestinians there. it's a sad commentary on what anti-israel arab leaders have done. if you care about the average palestinian, not the political elite, but the average palestinian to attach their situation to real economies, gives them the possible sect of a better life for them and their families into the future, not pursuing some abstract political goal called a palestinian state. there may be other solutions that are better than that. but the empirical reality is the notion of the two-state solution has failed. it will produce more terrorism in the region. it will not do anything to better the lives of the average palestinian. kennedy: is there any hope for peace between israel and palestine? >> not as long as the palestinians are ruled in the gassa stri -- in thegaza strip. what kind of palestinian state is it? one reason there haven't been elections on the best bank is palestinian leaders fear hamas would win that, too. kennedy: ambassador bolton, thank you very much for your time. we'll keep an eye on this situation because it turns out it's not going anywhere. thanks again. democrats reeling from november's election. they are look for someone to come to save the day in 2020. will their potential heroes need a walker? ed henry joins me coming up next. [vo] quickbooks introduces jeanette and her new mobile wedding business. at first, getting paid was tough... until she got quickbooks. now she sends invoices, sees when they've been viewed and ta-da, paid twice as fast! see how at quickbooks-dot-com. kennedy: donald trump hasn't even taken office yet and democrats are trying to figure out who has the best chance of beating him in 2020. elizabeth warren told a local massachusetts station that despite pressure the left, the next cycle isn't on her radar screen. warren will be 71 years old in four years. a whipper snapper compared to other possible contenders. bernie sanders look good at 79. when asked about the future of his party, outgoing salt in minority leader harry reid told "new york" magazine, it appears we'll have an old folks home. joining me, ed henry in the flesh. police beth warren not necessarily a surprising prospect considering the ideological turn the democratic party has take in the last year. she also is the most adept in her party at take on donald trump. does she have to pull back some of the thee atricks and some of the attack dog tendencies in order on a viable national candidate? >> i think the opposite. their view in terms of the folks who see her energy and passion. attack dog. they want someone to take on donald trump, and they want someto take on everything one final word for our viewers and be tough. where they saw hillary clinton as a flawed candidate. during the campaign we heard this from the same democrats. hillary clinton has the best resume. she is the most qualified ever. now even barack obama is saying i would beat trump. what he's saying is i'm a lot better than hillary clinton. so much for she is the most qualified ever. i think elizabeth warren is not going to say this publicly. she and other top democrats regret not getting into the mix in 2016. they were pushed aside by the clintons. as it turns out, joe biden included, they might have had a real shot at this nomination antigen election if they had only gotten in. >> there is also an interesting self-examination. i'm wondering is elizabeth warren the proved that? do they see a blustery aauthentic candidate, and does elizabeth warren fit that mold better than some of the polished politicians like cory booker? >> yes, because in some ways. look how good bernie sanders did. the senior democrats i talked to who liked elizabeth warren. a lot of people on the right don't like warren. she is a bomb thrower and too liberal. but as you were saying the party moved left. the energy is there. so elizabeth warren is seen by some in the democratic party as more authentic, and also a woman. she privileges the diversity hillary clinton was trying to bring, but not the troubled candidate who couldn't take on wall street because she was taking money in the right pocket as she was insisting on the right side i'm going to take them off. i think what harry reid is trying to get at. he's older than evident of the people he was talking about. the idea is whether you are the democratic or republican party, you want to be younger with fresh ideas. the democrats don't have a lot of that. warren may show some of the energy i'm talking about for the left. but she is not a fount of new ideas either. kennedy: if her politics resonates with younger voters like bernie sanders did, i think she has got a real shot. >> you say the same about donald trump on the right. everyone underestimated him. someone like warren could come in. i guarantee you there is somebody on the left you have or i are not thinking about who will surprise people and get nomination or go a lot further like bernie sanders. kennedy: great to see you. coming up, the party panel returns. should nicholas cage be worried playing a conservative hero would damage his career in liberal hollywood? kennedy: ronald reagan could be make august giant comeback to life, but not as a zombie. but in a hollywood bio pick. who could possibly play the gipper on the silver screen. nicholas cage has been offered the role. the resemblance is uncanny. the paper claims cage is hesitant to play reagan if the film portrays him in a flattering light. will it make him an outcast in the heavily liberal scene. tom shillue, i think this is a brilliant p.r. move. he's saying, i can't possibly play someone i abhor, especially if it's flattering. then conservatives say how could you have an unflattering movie about ronald reagan, it's the greatest movie of all time. then he will do a flattering performance that turns out to be something he had it, therefore he will get an academy award. >> i think he's setting it up. his career is -- people don't like him anyway. so his career -- i think it was national treasure. we can blame that. ghost writer. there are plenty of reasons. you can take any nicholas cage film. >> i think what he's saying, at some point he will be able to blame it on the reagan pick. five years down the line when no one will hire him he can say the was the reagan pic. >> he could have been the wellesley snipes of that generation and threw off that crown. titanic. before titanic came out. people were, this is unbelievable. james cameron was never going to work again. we have seen him do good work. this could be just a big bait and switch for him to do some measured and interesting work as reagan. >> i would love to see it, regardless of how you feel about reagan. i think it's time we start immortalizing him on cell youoid. >> ronald reagan movies is a great untapped market. a lot of people into ronald reagan. and it has nicholas cage ever said no to a movie him and mario lopez. they don't say no. kennedy: did you get a sex robot for christmas? no? me neither. another year in a row. batting zeros. the second annual love and sex with robots conference. one of the biggest questions was a doozy. will sex robots get the same rights as humans. if a sex robot isn't feeling sexy can it turn down its owner? not same way my blender can't turn down making a smoothie. there weren't sex robots at the symposium so the whole thing is dubious. >> when you think about it, obviously it's a bad thing. people should not be having sex with robots, they should be having sex with people. it's too much of a draw for guys. guys want easy commitmentless sex. as robots get more and more realistic. they won't be reproducing, having children, they should be doing that. it's bad. >> women have robot are type items within. >> they don't want to retire with a piece of equipment. >> maybe a sex robot would snuggle for as long as you want. i know you are still a virgin and that's a percent that thing you just talked about. is it cheating? >> there is so much morality around sex and i think people are looking for a new thing to get obsessed about. lonely people, a lot of them go to prostitutes which is still criminalized in much of the free world. to have something like robots, people are saying this is immoral. maybe that will make prostitution more socially acceptable. kennedy: or maybe prostitute will find other things to do. >> i would never have sex with a robot because i would probably get feelings for the robot. kennedy: a robot will never send you a creepy text in the middle of the night. >> i also think it's possible to catch feeling for a human who is not capable of emotions either. kennedy: at least you know what you are guying with a robot. >> they can't ghost you. kennedy: problem solved. humanity saved. party panel, thank you very much. what a great evening to be an evening. coming up, the cops in a murder case say an amazon echo device could hold clues to a crime. the details are next. your insurance company won't replace the full value of your totaled new car. the guy says you picked the wrong insurance plan. no, i picked the wrong insurance company. with liberty mutual new car replacement™, you won't have to worry about replacing your car because you'll get the full value back including depreciation. make the switch and find out why 96% of our customers are satisfied with liberty mutual. call for a free quote today. liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance. kennedy: a murder trial in arkansas straight out of "minority report," and it revolves around an amazon echo. cops have charged james baits with killing his friend in a hot tub. investigators believe the amazon echo may have record some of the crime or may have information that could help them solve it. so they subpoenaed amazon. but amazon refused to release any information. privacy advocates are suspicious if cops can get info we are on the vernal of big brother being able to listen in on anything we do in our home. remy, let's talk about this. amazon has received two subpoenas they will not comply with. they say they won't comply with anything that's not a valid and binding legal demand. >> an arkansas judge found probable cause that there might be information relevant to this murder investigation in amazon's possession. it raises an interesting question as to how much does law enforcement get to know about us. if you voluntarily put one of these device in your home and it's recording or at least on 24/7, amazon has the ability to be recording 24/7. >> one of the reasons math that might differentiate it from the apple san bernardino case where apple refused to comply with law enforcement demand that they unlock the terrorist iphone, amazon may show that they are in fact recording and storing everything and they have that capability. >> it's very scary to think the reasonable zon doesn't want to comply with these subpoenas is maybe they are not being truthful and if they are recording and gathering information not unlike nsa. so it's a scary proposition. a lot of civil rights activists are complaining the government shouldn't have access or the police in this arkansas case shouldn't have access to what's going none our house 24/. and it's a -- 24/7. but i think it many likely to withstand constitutional scrutiny. police should be able to get this information if it is sufficient for a warrant. just like a search warrant for your home or car, for your computer or cell phone. i think this sort of amazon kindle -- not kind, i ca -- echs not dissimilar from other devices. kennedy: it makes you think what else in my home can listen to everything i'm doing. our director says he covers the camera on his computer. he says they are always watching you. and if something has the capability of listening it's doing that as well. very good. coming up. the saying goes, let sleeping dogged lie. then annoy the fluff out of them. stick around for the "topical storm." g new cars. you're smart. you already knew that. but it's also great for finding the perfect used car. you'll see what a fair price is, and you can connect with a truecar certified dealer. now you're even smarter. this is truecar. justice is spelled b-o-x.hero, say hello to a powerful tool that gives you options to fit your budget. ♪ oh, i'm tied to this chair! ♪ dun-dun-daaaa! i don't know that an insurance-themed comic book is what we're looking for. did i mention he can save people nearly $600? you haven't even heard my catchphrase. i'm all done with this guy. box him up. that's terrible. kennedy: when you finally decide to conquer your fear of heights and go bungee jumping and you start plummeting to your death above a kiddy pool full of piranha, this is the "topical storm." such fun. topic number one. canadians, they are they are as people. they notice how cold it is there. but being the ever positive folks that they are are loving the freezing temperatures and making the best of it. that's real nice. >> hi, mom. kennedy: just a bunch of happy folks skating in the street. there they go. oh, no, this isn't going to end well. i just have a feeling. okay, go ahead, well, we aren't going to let canada have all the fun. here is a look at how we do things in america. >> put your skates back on. >> it's too late, they are off. kennedy: look out canada, we are coming for you are and you are paying for it. topic number 2. you know who is not worried about the robot uprising? dogs. sure, you wriggled your way around the sleeping doggy. i think i would wake up and check things out if i felt some device rubbing my naughty bits. but then i'm terrified of robots, ever since one mugged me. first they take our women, then our freedom. very sad. topic number 3. do you know why dentistry causes so much anxiety? it's not because you are worried about pain. it's that someone will film you when you he flernlgt dental answer these yeah and start worrying about drowning fish like leila. >> who's drowning? the fish are swimming. >> they are drowning. >> they are fine. >> no, they are not. kennedy: every fraternity party i have ever been to. they always have giant fish tanks in den 50s offices so people like leila will have a bad trip and lose their minds with the i am come prehencability of dissolving oxygen over gills. just become a dentist. win-win for everyone. topic number 4. 2016 has taken so much from us. dignity. celebrities. that meatball subi left in the staff region ray tore. man had . he wants to make sure one particular celebrity makes it out of 2016 unscathed. betty white. he created a gofundme page called help protect betty white from 2016. he promises quote if she is okay with it. i'll fly to wherever betty white is and keep her safe until january 1, 2017. his goal of $2,000 has been surpassed and donations are still pouring in. but the question, of course is, does she want the help? >> you are playing like bethy whiteout there. >> that's not what your girlfriend says. kennedy: she is 117. she'll be fine. jane fonda on the other hands. what's the best part of christmas? is it seeing young faces light up when they see what kris kringle left them under the tree? it's punking your kids. one little girl thought she was getting a super special present and couldn't wait to tear through the layers of paper. so excited. >> you like it? >> no. it's an avocado. i wonder if the avocado comes with a gift certificate. thanks, santa. thank you for watching the show tonight. your presence is always a gift. follow me on kennedynation and email me at [email protected]. tomorrow on the show kmele fort, gavin mcinnis and jimmy failla. >> an ancestor they knew nothing about... >> i went through 50-some-odd years of my life and had no clue. >> an inheritance they can hardly believe... >> what was your reaction as you opened those first boxes? >> it was mind-blowing. >> why does andrew green have george washington's will? >> bare-knuckle politics, cold-blooded murder, a legacy all but snuffed out... >> this was a cloud of suspicion of having lived a double life. >> what did they do? >> what are the chances that those boxes would've just been trashed? >> very good chance of that. >> what would you do? >> well, it drove me crazy. >> how 'bout 6,000? >> and what's it all worth? >> you think you'll ever get another auction with a story like this?