Transcripts For FBC Countdown To The Closing Bell 20121211 :

FBC Countdown To The Closing Bell December 11, 2012

Speaker john boehner said he is hopeful a deal will be reached, but also added the g. O. P. Wants the white house to provide details on spending cuts. But in the white house wants the same thing from the g. O. P. But either way that is good enough for the market. We took off and we stayed to the upside. So far neither side has been specific on spending cuts so coming up in just one hour o ony 4 00 p. M. Eastern, former treasury secretary paul oneill says he has easiest way to cut spending. Fox business exclusive and in this our whole host of leaders in business talking about what specific they want to see. In terms of individual standouts. Apple right now about 2 to the upside. Some excitement over the iphone 5. How is this for a order in china. Brenda marshall says china unicom has more than 300,000 people on the waiting list. Nicole petallides with talk about this earlier, but that is enough to boost the stock. Sales in china friday, can you imagine the lines . Sec dont airlines is soaring. Up nearly 6 . Delta says they will buy 49 of virgin atlantic. The price tag more than 300 million. And arg runnin rounding out thep three. Treasury department selling remaining stake in insurance provider that broke yesterday, but today the flow continues into aig stock effectively closing out the largest government bailout since the financial crisis hit in 2008. Lets look forward, all that and the start of a twoday fed meeting. The traitors all over the place. Your stock exchange, cme group and the nymex. Looking at a day like this, were up off of the highs because we have a higher 36 points on the dow but is a pretty decent day when there is still no real clarity in the beltway, what is it that has people so positive . As you mentioned this is five updates for the First Time Since march. Were looking toward the fiscal cliff, possibly ben bernanke comes out and says more. It seems everyday we dont have a fiscal cliff deal we actually go higher in the stock market. I think we would go lower heading toward the deadline. The market looks strong, apple looks strong. 50 billion in revenue possible. We do look strong. Coleman offers 1700 level. Lot of activity in december. And theyre expecting a huge move in the next week and a half. Liz no real fear in the market, so pretty significant blows around 15. Bond yields are not doing anything exciting. Do you look at that and say i am in . Or do you say the fear trade is over . Always at the volatility index and that is one of the gauges a look at it daily basis. Basically levels of the s p 500 futures the highest since obama was elected presidency. We sold awfully hard, we got back and possibly took some stocks off. Were reversing a little bit from the upside, selling off a little bit. The fiscal cliff are the two words that will be mentioned the most. We have costco earnings tomorrow, well keep an eye on that one. Liz is anybody looking at the fed meeting . The announcement were not doing anything it comes to cutting rates would probably the fourth quantity of easing. I cannot imagine well hear anything dramatically different from the fed difference i from e message wouldve gotten from the last couple of meetings. Liz he has the ear of the fed. They can keep throwing liquidity at the system, and there is some signs of mild progress but the fact is for all the work theyre doing, there doesnt seem to be a whole lot of positive results. The tape is obviously telling us there clearly has to be a deal on the fiscal cliff. I am not sure there are lots of folks i talk to who are believers. A lot of people continue to sit on the sidelines and watching the market work higher and are getting a little bit uncomfortable which were not so far on the sidelines. That is what makes the market. Liz i dont know if he does yos talk a lot about operation twist or seen the expiration of that, that is coming to the end. Today you have some Energy Complex moving higher. Natural gas not so much, but how closely tied our prices of natural gas and gasoline into what happened as far as a fiscal cliff is concerned in how people feel about the Discretionary Income they have an in the monen their wallets . The fiscal cliff stuff, i am on the sidelines. We are in a range. If you look at the volatility, we are at the lowest points of the year right here. Has not been this year since last year. But 21 . That tells the a lot of people are on the sidelines. Look at the range we have been in. Everybody got excited. Nobody got excited about calls. You have to look at the volatility, index, as far as relationship between the natural gas. Liz is the trade to sell at 90, by at 80 . Absolutely. But easier said than done. Seems to be Going Forward to the end of the year, on the sidelines, see what happens with the fiscal cliff stuff. The frank. Thing. A lot of those take place at the first of the year. It will be more expensive. Having a lot of people on the sidelines awaiting to see what will happen. Liz they are switching it to frankdodd. Not doddfrank. Youll all pay higher taxes. Liz thank you for joining us. What does a bowl look like in a bear costume and how quickly can he come out swinging . As far as we can remember he has been a bowl and equities especially with everybody else seems to be abandoning ship. For the first time in years youre putting on the bear suit. It does not fit well on me. Weve had this 1450 target all year. We are right near it now. Were just seeing more negatives in the near term. The fiscal cliff, even if they settle it, it will take some percentage of gdp. The worst case, two to three, maybe if they compromise in the middle. The meantime corporate all over the country it hit the pause button. Hiring people, corporations, individuals, small businesses. We think the next story once we get through the fiscal cliff and breathe a sigh of relief is the economic numbers will come a little bit soft. Liz you have 30 billion in assets under management, we dont sit there paralyzed, do you . We have pulled ourselves into neutral and equities. Telling people to hold your fire. We have made a lot of money this year. Were still longterm bulls. Liz which is a decent level. You are right pretty much a couple more weeks to trade, but you are calling 1450 this year for the s p. Not too far from that at the moment. This is it for next year, what would get us there . Reacceleration. Liz that is when you switch it. Did we get a little soft in the First Quarter with economic weakness. Little disappointment. That is what i think you really want to be ready when people are starting to cry about recession, which adobe is going to happen, that is when you want to step in. Liz i want people to put their attention on the big board right now. We have been up more than 130 points, now we are up 60, square looking now at a loss. At least chopping half, still a nice healthy gain at the moment but something is spooking the bulls. You may be right. But teach people how to invest around your double costume here. If you are bearish, what do you buy right now . Near term we are in defensive. Health care ihealth care in pard like in that area. We really like the farmers and the staples as a place to hang out. It still has a pretty good dividend on it. Pfizer is still a relatively cheap stock as people are worried about the pipeline, etc. But actually think it is a Healthy Company that has been undervalued for some time. Liz once youre out of the bear suit, what are you going to buy . Then we will buy supercold as the Economic News gets a lot better. I want to own consumer supercold, industrials in particular would like. But even spread out into places like germany, china, emerging market that we have been buying the last couple of months. Liz chin steve has a china plae dont want to miss. 30 billion in assets under management. He is working his money, trust us. The closing belllin 50 minutes. A fall off the fiscal cliff will derail the programs helping the hosing recover. For the homebuilders worried . Toll brothers is the 800pound gorilla, they would know. A fox business exclusive with dogeared leaflets which tell you if the recovery in housing is here to stay and it matters to a whole host of stocks and what the fiscal fall could do to his business. Only here on fbn. And we n save you 10 on ground shipping over the ups store. Look this isnt my first christmas. These deals all seem great at the time. But later. [ shirt ] merry christmas, everybody not so much. Ho ho ho this isnt that kind of deal. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. Save on ground spping at fedex office. To the number 1 club in the world. The potential of Manchester United unlocked. Nyse euronext. Unlockg the worlds potential. Liz investors continue to pile into biotech stocks. We wanted to check out three of them hitting new highs. Take a look at these. Nicole you talk about jobs for all americans, studies and fda approval, this is what these guys do. Three stocks were focusing on, names hitting alltime highs today. If youre a shareholder and you have some sort of a medical or buying fund coming might be involved in some of these without even knowing it. These are some names we continue to focus on. I was looking up celgene just now, i was looking at celgene where theyre working on late stage study moving toward fda approval for a particular drug to treat blood cancer. These are the kind of things that continue to evolved. These three names are hitting alltime highs. Liz love it, thank you, nicole. Housing clearly in a recovery in a lot of the housing stocks at least at a certain point have hit new highs. All you have to do is look at recent data points in terms of sales of new homes, new orders, signed contracts. Actually prices in many parts of the country. Will it last . After all we have been fooled a couple times before but now you have the fiscal cliff. Hanging over this entire sector. Toll brothers ceo joining me now in a fox business exclusive from pennsylvania. I am so glad you are here because we could very easily say house business. But im assuming business is looking a lot better. My question to you is what is the number one indicator to you that your business is actually on a sustainable turnaround and we could be fooled again. Speaspeaker they begin now untie are near the fiscal cliff. Mortgage rates three and a quarter percent. Buyers have been on the sidelines for five years and anxiously been waiting for better news, more Consumer Confidence to come back out. We had a great spring selling season. Now we are selling into the winter. It all feels good. Liz that doesnt usually happen with this much muscle. Are there any log jams, or our wouldbe buyers getting the credit they need to buy the homes . Our clients can get mortgages. Our buyers tend to put a lot more money down. They mortgage a lot less, very high credit ratings. We are not seeing that problem at all. Lower price point a little bit of a problem but it is getting better. Liz when you look at parts of the business that have done well. The analyst has taken a bit of a back seat to the actual lending business creating a cash cow for a lot of you guys. How is that doing and we understand the margins are very healthy for a lot of these names that are out there . Our service is Toll Brothers, the only claimed it has. It is not in the business of making money, it is for providing great service, have a great race and closing homes and that is really our focus. It is a secondary business that supports housing. Liz is that we dont break out the margins on this part of the business . That is correct, that is exactly right. The Rating Agency came out with this report that said they are highly concerned the home price rebound may be derailed. He was pretty solid about it saying it would go off the fiscal cliff, lots of programs may be cut, and therefore would cause a real problem. What do you say to that report . The whole country is truly concerned about the fiscal cliff, that is obvious. Everybody is sitting back and waiting to see if washington can actually get something done. If political agendas can get it aside and think about the devastation that probably occurred with the fiscal cliff. The spring selling season begins in late january. We have been the bright spot in the economy. Our industry are creating jobs, were coming back in the early stages of a recovery so the fiscal cliff january 1 would have a huge impact on the country, and impact on our business, and we have our fingers crossed and are very hopeful washington can get something done and well have to see. But if they dont, there is no question there will be a little bit of time until things settle down when the buyers will hit the sidelines. Liz will it derail the tentative recovery here . Right now we are three weeks away from this fiscal cliff date and were still selling houses. I dont think it derails it, but there could be a pause until things get worked out. Liz part of it is being discussed, and that is the possible elimination or at least the cutting of the Mortgage Interest Rate deduction here. On one hand you have that would really hurt this industry and we need this sector to come back on the other, doesnt everybody have to have a stake in this . How do you feel about the possibility that could either be cut or eliminated . I think it would be unfortunate if they did it now because housing is what is driving this economy. We are in the early stages of a recovery, so it is important not to touch anything to do with housing for the first year, but understand i that there has to e a modest tweak to the mortgage Interest Deduction, it will be okay. I dont think it will ever be eliminated, but if there are some modest changes to it, we will be fine. Demand is picking up enough, we feel good enough about where things are headed that is not really what were worried about now. It is the bigger cliff that is the issue in front of all of us. Liz you have been able to say at least a modest tweak you could live with in th and the iy could live with. How do you feel the cafeteria style discussions i have had whether they would all be capped at 18,000 or 25,000, people could pick and choose what they want. Perhaps they choose the Mortgage Interest Rate deduction. They dont need that, or they have, could you live without part of it . I dont think a dollar amount cap makes any sense but if it were a percentage amount that is something that is more sensible. Congress and the president understands dont go after the mortgage Interest Deduction right now. 65 to 70 of the country owns a home, it is more likely there will be discussions about deductions in general without identifying individual deductions. We will have to see how it plays out. I dont think any of this gets done in the next three weeks. Thatll be a discussion for three weeks from now and a healthy discussion so long as housing is not stalled because we go over the cliff whatever is discussed over the next year or two should be okay. Liz youre having a great winter season selling year. Thank you for joining us to talk about it. Thank you. Liz anytime. Doug yearly is the Toll Brothers ceo. Eventually they could live with a tweaked the Mortgage Interest Rate deduction, interesting stuff. We are watching this so closely because everybody will feel it one way or another. Were still up about 63 points. Steve cohen is a generous man paying staff quite handsomely over the years. It turns out he was in a given mood when it came to one of his former employees at the heart of a trading scandal. Charlie gasparino on the titan and all the behind the scenes. He is the only one who has them. Many of us owe that fac capital founder is a generous man giving to charity, of course, famous for paying the top traders very well, but who knew he was paying the Legal Expenses of a former employee the government is attempting to flip as a witness against him in the Insider Trading probe. Charlie has wait a minute, usually companies have to pay the legal fees, dont they, of former employees . Depends on how long ago. Matthew was employed two years ago; right . 2010 . Fired basically, pushed out for poor performance. Hes been unployed by sac if two years. This is what we know. Couple things here. The government is clear, i got to sources close to government, trying to get him to flip, okay, against steve believes Insider Trading allegations, drug stocks, provided that information to steve cohen, thats part of the indictment, the charge against him. We dont know what they dont say is whether its inside information, whether steve cohen knewinside information. Steve has not been charged, but the governmentments him, from what we understand, to flip against cohen in this stuff. Will he . We understand hes holding out to today. The implication that extensively if they pay for the legal fees, hes not going to turn he has expensive legal fees. He hired, and you wonder where he gets the money from. He made 9 million in 2008. Hes hiring a guy at 1300 an hour. Who is that . One of the better ones out there, charlie stillman, long time white collar control defense attorney, and from what we understand, that number is pick up by capital. What do they get . I shoold point out, talked to peter henning, big time white collar professor at the university, and it often happens, but we dont know what his employment contact covers and whether its two years out. Remember, its not like he was there hes been gone. When youre there, youre charged, you leave, and we dont know if this was cut now or thhs is this is in the contact from back then and whether its a retro active thing. As long as you are charged for stuff that occurred here, well cover you. We dont know. Theyre not saying. They do get benefits. Basically, you talk to henning, tells you pointblank, you know, like i said, its routine. It happens. We dont know the specifics. Theres a suspicion youre buying silence, always a suspicion. Number two, theres always sharing the documents and information sharing when youre covering someones climate. We dont know if they have a cooperation agreement, but youd think theres a joint Defense Agreement in place that allows for some cooperation where if he decides to cooperate, at the very lowes, they get a heads up, and they get to prepare. This is smart lawyering, even if it was predetermined because he is in the camp, and if hes going to cooperate with the feds, theres some sharing of information. We have seen in the past where people have been at least their legal fees paid for. For example, david, who left berkshire hataway, buffets company, they are still paying for the fees

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