The bridge between annexed crimea and the russian mainland. Meanwhile, prudence threat of Nuclear Weapons continues to loom on to the point we ask Russian Missile attacks on ukraine. How far will the kremlin go with hello and welcome to this weeks to the point. Time have year again, and im very glad to joined the to the point Team Starting to date. Now what i love about the show is that im never alone. Ill always be joined by distinguished guests. Lets see todays line up. Its Alexandra Phillip panko. She is a russian analyst working for the institute for the us and canada studies currently based in vilnius with wayne. Yeah. Folk of ioc. Ssl is an editor for the monthly magazine, australia, hopa here in berlin, focusing on issues in Eastern Europe and woman gunshot and go as my dw colleague from ukraine, norma, working in bond for our russian service. Im glad to welcome here. Welcome him here. Personally in the studio to all 3 of you. Thank you very much for joining us and welcome to this weeks show. And id like to start by assessing the recent developments in ukraine, especially those massive attacks that we saw on monday. Ukrainians, of course have been dealing with russian shelling for months now, but id like to start with you woman. Just to understand whats going on. This attack seem to be different. What have you heard from friends and family while they are different because theyre so massive. There were attacks on the very 1st day of the russian invasion in february. And then there were pauses, but there has never been so menu or missiles shorted the same time when ukrainian territory. What comes a new will now is also that russia extensively using those drones from iran. And this as together, and which means practical that people in ukraine have to stay in shelters for hours and hours on kids. People can go to work. Are they afraid to sleep at night because they were kind of used to those air raid sirens . When i wasnt here for 2 times, i saw people just walking on the streets. Although the government says people, please go to the shelters, dont ignore it. But people somehow got used to it, they felt secure, they dont felt feel secure now, so that this is a major change there. Do you think that that major change also affects the perception of how the war is developing in cri. Oh, of course. Well, on the one hand, people have been expecting Something Like this at the very beginning. And now we have 7 months on all this. Things happen it because it is, is going very intense and a civilian population is now feeling it much more than it used to, especially in summer, for example, when it was relatively calm in ukraine and mainland far away from the front line. Now it is completely different and winters coming, coldest. Ah, people are worried or whether it will be warm in their homes, if they will have Running Water enough food supplies. And the government is urging people to prepare for that. But as of just said, people have been expecting this months before. It didnt happen then, but now they know they have to act the fact that there have been many descriptions of these most recent attacks. Some have said its retaliation. Just like, let me put and said for the destruction of that criminal bridge, others have said this was a desperate attempt by Latimer Putin who, seeing that he is maybe not progressing in the war as much as he wants. Others have said that this has been a very carefully planned attack for months. Whats your assessment of the nature of these recent attacks . All 3 assessments are too, because of things like that and they are planned before, but they are not done. So just to the very decision to use these rocket for ad taro am has to be prepared. But on just after the crimea bridge, there was at the point when they really did it, then m retaliation is so i think its the will, the key word because of things changed after the crimea bridge. And its completely different from what happened at the beginning of the war, because at that moment it was kind of a deterrence, her all and shocked, targeted toward your queen in civil civil society, ukrainian population and Ukrainian Government just give up. And now i dont really think that the kremlin, suppose that the russian or the you couldnt, and government will change its course in this war. And neither when the coin and population. So its just a retaliation, the sands that the chose to moscow radicals. And that after the crimea of which we have to do something, we are losing on ground this war. And they are even now targeting our mainland infrastructure. And crimea is seen as yes maam. So i have to do something, so there was panic. This. Whats your 3rd point . I own a through at a certain point to all 3 of them. And it was also very important for from the perspective of the narrative that weve seen from this war. Alexandra, that couldnt certainly needed to change the way the western media is reporting the way people are talking about his advance in this war. Whats your impression about that change of narrative . Did he succeed in changing that . And that story line, if you will, that ukraine was progressing, that they had actually repelled Russian Troops from vast parts of the occupied land. Was that successful in that sense . Well, looking inside rush hour from russia, from, from the outside. If i, unfortunately, i watch some of the russian television, i have to to know what to what they are they are saying. But i must say that inside russia let him are putting on the kremlin. Generally, they can say that theyve won right now. Thats, thats the power of the propaganda. And its a good thing that they can not change the narrative of the outside world of the free world. Or they can not change the narrative in europe or in the United States. And because people are seeing what is happening in ukraine and they are seeing the civilians target being targeted. And that is very important. And me being from the institute of us and canadian studies im of course, im aware worried. Im a say about the american elections about the kong and elections and congress. And thats what ive been seeing recently in from republicans from fox news from right wing media is the change of narrative, but i dont think it has anything to do with the russian. There is no advance, so i cannot say advance from russian way of waging this horrific war. So this is the whole other question, but thankfully, for now, president fulton and the kremlin, they can only control the narrative inside russia and theyre extremely successful in that. And since most Russian Media is prohibited in europe and in the United States, that is why they cannot change the narrative in europe and the United States. And that is the something that i was happy to see. But dont you think that the perception, even here in the western countries, if you will, was that until now. There were like fights going on in different parts of the ukrainian territory, but that couldnt actually showed that he can massively damage ukraine in one day. Basically pushing a button. Yes, thats true. Youre absolutely right. And i this idea of the fact that, oh, its a war somewhere somewhere far, far away from european borders. No, its happening in the center of europe basically in, in its happening very close to everyones borders. And kremlin is dangerous for the, for europe. So that, that is one of the points. But i dont think that this way, he changed the narrative in a good way for the kremlin. I think he just showed that it kremlin and kremlin politics is quite dangerous for the whole world. So that in this way, yes, i think it changed and the fact and the way europe and the United States were fast to act, to help out ukraine. This shows that people are listening right now. People are listening also within a russia woman. And we already mentioned the hard liners, if you will, in moscow that were pushing for more severe attacks. Some even saying russia should do this every single day. Did glad re put in at least then succeed in convincing the hard liners in moscow that he is going going on or continuing this war in the way they prefer. Well, the hard liners that we have access to. I mean, those who ride every day bloggers are on telegram or other social media channels. They are drinking champagne, of course. So theyre very happy. The question is, how long as there is, this is a big question because we are discussing how many missiles russia has left for how long can rush to sustain such attacks on ukrainian civil into infrastructure and what they are pushing for is a major offensive. So they say we have to use this moment that we have now, or we stopped the ukranian counter offensive, which started in late august and then was very successful in Early September in the north of ukraine. So russian russians claim, now we managed to stop that. We managed to sub that in the south. Now we have to push forward the claim nearly every day that they have retaken maybe some small villages or the territories ukraine and again says we have for it. So it is a very dynamic situation. But you asked about the hard line nice. I think they will not just arrest until they see a major success of russia. And so, so far, the biggest success was to hit power stations to interrupt Energy Supply within ukraine to make people suffer civilian population. There is no success on the battlefield, at least no big success for the russian army. And this is a big question, how the situation will develop in the coming months as we are moving towards winter, as ive just said. And the weather will be worse. And when rain starts and it will be colder, if this will bring this practically to a whole to this ukrainian end, russian counter offensive will have to see. I personally believe it wont. I think we will see fighting, just like before. You mentioned one of the key aspects that we definitely want to talk about because from we can see, the russian army seems to be trying to inflict as much damage as possible. The latest missiles were launched against critical infrastructure, especially the one that guarantees the supply of energy, human casualties are seen as a Collateral Damage that russia apparently is willing to put up with just like it did in syria. The 19 kilometer cache bridge was attacked and damaged by whom is still unclear. Russia accuses ukraine of being behind the attack in response, russia bombs, numerous ukrainian cities, including keith, its main target, the Power Infrastructure grey not new frame, cannot be accommodated. She, we are united even more. Instead, we are convinced even more that terror rhetoric, because marshal neutralizer nash cordial at the south region. The Largest Nuclear power plant in europe has also been the target of rockets and artillery fire on several occasions that has been repaired each time. The most mysterious attack of civilian infrastructure concerns the baltic sea pipeline. No stream one and 2 that have been damaged by explosions in several places. It is still completely unclear who is behind it. Is critical civilian infrastructure becoming the chief target of the attacks. It certainly seems like from what weve seen in recent days now far, according to reports, 30 percent off Ukrainian Energy infrastructure has been damaged this week. How badly does that really hit the country right now . So according to my information, the possibility to repair all that in the coming days and weeks is still there. The big question, roman, all the sad is, did russian not it hard group because its not able, it does not one for pull to the go weasels. All does it still spare some rockets for the future for future attacks because the winter will come but winter is still not there. So its kind of possible some experts, all like these are that they have so few rockets left that they want to spare with them for attacks closer to mid december when the temperature in ukraine is really beyond much beyond the 0. So 10 days or 20 days to repair the system, its much harder than it is for a know. You mentioned the fact that russia might be running out of ammunition or a certain type of ammunition at least. But, alexandra, we have the same situation in nato. We just saw a nato meeting, a high profile meeting of the defense ministers were one of the issues is how to still balance the necessities of ukraine while still are making sure that the nato countries have enough ammunition for their own protection. Whats your assessment on how sustainable the support for ukraine can be . And im sorry, being in berlin m dragging. Every one to watch seems to washington, but im always, i understand they a speak to her about the United States, mostly an a follow whats happening in the United States. And it looks like the United States can and provide the weapons that are needed and are maybe not europe, not, not at this point, but the United States are able to provide the needed weapons. And i key of has been asking for this for a very long time. And oh, of course, that heavy weaponry and everything and a closing the skies and all of that is extremely important. And it looks like a wild, a nato is sale. Of course, its very powerful right now and i, since the democrats are in power, not her president. Trump, who thought, who saw nato as theyre not needed any more. But now, while the democrats are in power is especially the when congress in november, i suppose that and more weapons must come from the United States, not from europe may be, but from the United States. So that would suggest that both sides can still sustain this. For a longer time, a woman were, we were talking about the possibility of civilian infrastructure to be more hardly hit in the coming months. But were not only talking about the russian territory or the korean territory, or saw damages that are still being investigated. For example, in the north stream pipelines, should we brace for more attacks on civilian infrastructure even here in the west . Well, certainly, i think the governments are aware of that and are preparing or have have prepared plans for such cases. We still do not know for sure what exactly happened, but if it was russia and there are some indications that could have been russia that have done this in the baltic sea, then all the Cable Networks are the pipeline in the baltic. Sea in the seas are in danger. So the west is stepping up efforts to control that to monitor the situation. But you cannot put a new submarines everywhere. You cannot put camera install cameras everywhere. And if, even if you have cameras, you cannot stop actual sabotage if they come. So this is something that is possible. This is something that is possible because we have a very special, very difficult vent winter in front of us in western europe and in europe in general. Maybe also in the world because there is an Energy Prices which are sky high. And we have shortages of supply, and of course russia knows it and well try to use it in what way we will see there is another important aspect also in the russian side, because the destruction of that bridge in crimea, the crimean bridge was seen as highly symbolic, weve seen some arrests already by the russian government. What do we know about who really it was behind that attack and how did it hit russia symbolically speaking as well. But speaking it hit very hard. The 1st moment nuku unions had a good reason to hope that it hit more than symbolically, but the fax will show that the automotive who transit transit could be recovered after hours and even the even the way going. So what we see is that this was more symbolic than really military target. I dont know if its clear this was the goal of the ukrainians. Im sure this was you quinn. Secretary with thats no, no doubt about this. No other organization would have done this. Mm. Hm. And so what we saw, why russia at the 1st moment did not hit back in minutes or hours was that there are still controlling the process. Theyre still at least no fainted to, to have a rational process or an investigation. And it took them 2 or 3 days. Um, so its for the public, we dont just sit back, we are a rational actor, thats what they want to show you through. Interesting a, i wanted to add one thing. Theyre always saying everything is going according to the plan. And so we saying everything concurrent, no one knows the plan, but it seems that everyones, everythings going so that, thats, i just want to add him to what you just said and agree with you. This is from crime, you were head. They said it was an incident, it was clear they know that was green and attacks. But they called an incident from unknown people or unknown fire. Just not to be in the situation that theyre forced to act. Right. But we have not seen the condemnation that at least the western countries have had with similar actions by the russian army, as we have seen from this. Apparently, if thats correct, where you say an action of the ukrainian secret services. Whats your assessment on that one . Well, ive is a, its a, its a very symbolic act. And i, i think that as one of those headline, as weve been talking about, put it, its a punch in the stomach while youre grasping that, youre trying to concent, right . So you are completely puzzled whats going on. It is not so much that it hurts, are russia . Of course, it hurts are the supplies to the claim in peninsula the annex graham in peninsula. But as youve said, the trains are running, some cars are running, the trucks will have to use ferries. Now, this slows down the process, but still the bridges, there are the major impact was purely symbolic, i think, at, but we shouldnt underestimate it because its, its, we have to understand its been one of the best guarded objects may be in russia of russian infrastructure or maybe not as good as the kremlin, but maybe 2nd or 3rd. So it is extremely symbolic that russia cannot guarantee that such think wont happen in the future. So well see how, how much pressure that actually implies for the kremlin. Now, many experts fear that a bad performance of the Russian Forces in the battle field could significantly increase the danger of an escalation of the war, even leadin