Unilaterally rejected a year ago i wash into iran also issued an ultimatum to the remaining parties to the agreement giving them 60 days to find a way to keep trading with iran despite the u. S. Sanctions could u. S. Pressure put it produce a new and better deal as washington claims or will it result in war thats the question we pose in this edition of quadriga and here are our guests who will answer it its a pleasure to welcome tori tausig shes a political analyst for the Brookings Institution currently on a robert bosch fellowship in berlin and she says tensions between the u. S. And iran are escalating signals coming out of washington and tehran indicate things wont to cool down anytime soon. And were very glad to have shine arche on on the program he is a political analyst and on iranian and shia affairs and hes editor in chief of iran under is a german language magazine specialized. In reporting on iran he says europe shouldnt see iran only as a threat rather it county when tehran has a partner and its a pleasure to introduce rick novak hes a berlin based correspondent for the Washington Post who covers International Politics and he says both sides know that a u. S. Iranian war could become more catastrophic even than the iraq war President Trump could have few firm allies at home for such a confrontation. So id like to start out by trying to figure out if these drumbeats of war that were hearing are in fact leading to that or whether theyre simply scare tactics on both sides and for that purpose id like us to listen to some sound from both parties. What they should be doing is calling me up sitting down we can make a deal a fair deal we just dont want to have Nuclear Weapons not too much to ask and we want to help put them back into great shape. Would look at of negotiations with the us or poison as long as the us is what it is and has not come to its senses. Talks with the us or poison and with its Current Administration its a double poison him. The tories how sick you said in your Opening Statement that things wont cool down soon but trump is hardly sounding theyre like hes ready to go to war the fact is that he was elected in part on his assertion that he would bring home u. S. Forces from the middle east and not intervene anymore in that region thats exactly right President Trump campaigned in 2016 on bringing troops home from the middle east ending americas costly wars in the region and also withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal and renegotiating a better deal with irans leaders over not only its Nuclear Weapons and its progression of Nuclear Weapons but also its destabilizing activity in the region the challenges that theyre hardliners in the white house that have a very different objective when it comes to iran and that is pushing tensions to the point where we are today that i think requires us to talk a little bit about those hard liners vigneault act in your Opening Statement you mentioned the iraq war well the fact is that one of the chief architects of that conflict is now the National Security advisor to President Trump and were told that iran policy is absolutely in his hands so what are the implications of that lets say the president doesnt want a war how does john bolton feel about it well john bolton certainly has been advocating for military options potentially or at least a very strong stance against iran but it is unclear to what extent trump actually agrees with that assertion or with that stance of we have actually been hearing over the last few hours to do that trump has been quite opposed to some of the statements he has made. Sure there are can you say that the u. S. Can win iran as a partner but if we listen to that sound bite from how many it doesnt sound like hes ready for any kind of discussions and havent in fact hardliners in the regime in tehran been gaining sway in recent months i have to correct that isolates of europe or in iran the support or not so us. At the moment the relationship but the intel on the washroom is too complicated for such a prospect. But youll say the hardliners iran but i think in this regard we have not really hard liners in iran because if you look at the president ial and parliamentary elections no political iran demand to have Nuclear Weapons or to pull out from the deal so what we know seeing is that the loans will socalled hard line as what we see is that even the rough reformers those centrist in iran want. Pressure as a Central Government of mr rouhani. To increase the iranian and to suspend some obligations and to just a few a i want to come back to that in a moment but can you just say a word about the latest u. S. Claims regarding iranian threat to u. S. Forces in the middle east we are seeing reports today that the u. S. Says it has credible evidence that missiles have been loaded on to small boats in the persian gulf and that the revolutionary guards the hardliners in iran are behind this now in april the Iranian Parliament declared u. S. Forces in the region terrorists isnt ringback there some good reason to be concerned in washington about what the implications of that could be i dont think so it depends on the International Community to the International Entity that can have iran to events with sanctions thats the moment. Its not the moment that iran has nothing to lose i wonder you want to listen to love then it can for example blocks through the whole most significant. Happens in persian goes by the moment i dont sing that iran is interested in military conference i also think the us is also not interest the. Military conflict. What were seeing is a loss theres this more. Missiles to prevent investments and business in iran because no businessman want to deal with the county runs theres a fear that the next days libya well let me ask the 2 of you how you interpret these u. S. Claims about having new and credible evidence of a qualitatively higher risk and 3 how sick you mentioned the hardliners in the white house john bolton. Certainly everybody remembers the evidence that he and others presented in the run up to the iraq war is that what were seeing here a similar situation exaggerations or do you think this is more credible to be honest its a little hard to tell what were dealing with here because it did seem to appear somewhat out of nowhere about a week ago we had a scheduled visit from secretary of state mike pump aoe to berlin which was called off at the last minute so that the secretary of state could travel to iraq to meet with counterparts there to discuss what the administration said were Credible Threats of iranian proxies planning an attack on u. S. Resources and military assets in the region with very Quick Movement of u. S. Military assets to the region and all the sudden were in this tit for tat moment of escalation between the iranians and the americans and yet when u. S. Officials such as mike pompei i have tried to make the case of credible evidence to european offish. Ells its been met with increasing skepticism exactly rick no act europeans definitely pushing back on this point even a british general saying yesterday he doesnt buy the evidence hes seeing and that is quite remarkable as as you know britain is part of the 5 Eyes Alliance partnership and and clearly a dispute over evidence the u. S. Claims could potentially justify military strikes and potentially a war with iran and the u. S. And the u. K. Official denying that that is quite striking and i think that is not going to help the u. S. Make its point here in europe especially but also in other countries meanwhile shown archaea iran is saying that it will no longer comply with the limits on production of an in rich to radium that were part of that Nuclear Agreement that the u. S. And the 5 permanent members of the Security Council together with germany all signed up to so what exactly does that mean how quickly can iran rev up its Nuclear Program are we now in imminent danger of seeing it essentially restart its own program. For so well that. This mission. Is into the buys or just appraiser just. Gives the rights to iran to the sepia way is the name of that Nuclear Agreement just like yours. Give irans a right the also spends a right to redraw its obligations if the laws of the do not comment to. The rouhani of this mission is not to. Tool resident just not to destroy the agreement but that argument. Puts the ball in a crowd also International Community especially if we but also russia and china to find the. It was the jeans ok and we will come back to the sanctions a little bit earlier but lets take a closer look at this deal at this j c p a way as you said that at the time it was signed to trumps predecessor barack obama called a historical triumph for diplomacy the deal was signed in 2015 after 13 years of wrangling the 5 permanent members of the u. N. Security council on the one side and iran on the other agreed that iran would cease activities that could result in Nuclear Weapons production and allow robust monitoring and inspect in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions Europe Russia and china say iran has made good on its commitment under the deal so far so torrie what exactly is it that the u. S. Is objecting to. So if we go back to the 2016 campaign and President Trumps criticisms of the iran deal he said time and time again that this was a poorly negotiated deal it was done and acted against a rogue regime and that iran had no interest in maintaining its end of the bargain president trying to renegotiate this deal said that it was going to renegotiate a deal to focus on irans destabilizing actions in the region in addition to its Nuclear Program however if we go back a year ago just over a year ago today the United States unilaterally withdrew from that deal saying that it could again renegotiate a better deal with iran what it did not anticipate was that the europeans and the iranians would both stay in the deal and try to make good on again iran putting off its Nuclear Ambitions for reduction and relief from sanctions and so the u. S. Has been i think increasingly isolated in its attempt to try to get iran back to the table to renegotiate a better deal so sure among the things that the trumpet ministration accuses iran of are threatening u. S. Interests in the middle east as we talked about the idea of the missiles on the boats in the persian gulf that could perhaps be aimed at u. S. Forces encouraging aggression by shiite militias in lebanon iraq and syria shipping missiles to hooty rebels in yemen and allowing iranian irans naval forces to behave belligerently in the persian gulf its quite a long list and its by no means fiction. I dont think so for example if you succeed as a case officer munro. So hard highroad. Raghad who. Even the state department told. Before the war but. They run young told so just do not invade sandals all this is very our way towards influence of iran on the hutus on the rehman. Saudi arabia knows that iran has no lobby in west and often use iran as a pretext to legitimize its policy and the us might also do so there are many other countries that the that the legat to mys its policy. By taking iran as surprise attacks and if you compare for example the role of saudi arabians the region and the role of iran in the region i do not see is that irans will in the region is really destabilizing i see it. Support that. Take on this prime minister. And pressure him to step aside. Sings the only problem between those arrests iran. Is a case of if you want to salute this solves this problem we have to make peace but when its word and pelisse them and then iran come to a damn think so rick no act the europeans have said. Essentially the nuclear deal contains iran is Nuclear Program and if we bring iran out from in from the cold if we reintegrate them into World Markets if we reintegrate them into International Diplomacy that eventually will have levers to work on these other destabilizing behaviors that i listed. There the fact is you could say given that that geo political speech you ation in the middle east with this head to head rivalry between saudi arabia and iran wasnt that pretty naive to think that we were ever going to see iran cease that kind of behavior well you could argue so and in fact for for people critical of the deal the evidence has been terror attacks or killings in europe blamed on iran over the last few months now there isnt any evidence really for that but some of claimed that this sort of indicates that yvon wont stop its behavior and in fact it might feel emboldened by the fact that theres more money theres more Economic Prosperity but the europeans have been quite calm and stuck to that agreement not even really commented on on those attacks or those killings and europe to try to at least give it a chance at least try it out if it could work and thats the reason why theyve set up for instance a Clearing House to facilitate trade between European Companies and iran even after the u. S. Pulled out of that agreement so i can just add to this very briefly i dont think that there were allusions on behalf of the Obama Administration that iran was a good actor in the region and all of the malign activities you mentioned were met with clear eyes by washington this Iranian Nuclear cord was meant to deter irans Nuclear Ambitions and that in itself there was a lot of criticism within washington and elsewhere at the time that it didnt address enough of irans destabilizing activities in the region but again this deal was meant to deter iranian Nuclear Ambitions and what i worry about now is that we are back to a time where we have one you know 2 potential paths one iran kind of restart its nuclear processes or 2 were in a play. Of heightened tensions of confrontation between the United States and iran both of these paths the deal was meant to avoid in the 1st place you know it let me ask you about one aspect of that and it goes back to what cheyenne archaea said about this historic rivalry between iran and saudi arabia the u. S. Is now positioned itself very very firmly on the side of saudi arabia what impact does that have on these tensions with iran is that one of the reason were seeing things heat up now and what consequences do you think will come of that well certainly it does send a message was especially after the killing and the war in yemen that the u. S. Still stands by saudi arabia sends a message not only to iran but to a lot of other actors in the world but i think in terms of iran specifically yes it does embolden saudi arabia in a way to to get tougher on it and do you think it was saudi arabia wants hot war with iran. I think nobody wants war necessarily at this point but what if a problem related to. The late moderate king of. Demands from the u. S. To attack iran with. The documents. Its not youll thats all durbin is always tries to push us for a while against iran so let us talk briefly about where things go from here and as i said earlier the incentive offered to tehran in the Nuclear Agreement was sanctions relief but over the past year the u. S. Has reimposed sanctions tighten them up and now threatens to tighten them even further including both minerals and steel lets take a look. After all steel is the 2nd lifeline for irans economy now in this sector too must fear for its future here really 2000000 iranian citizens work in the metal processing industry. Its not just me everyones worried were just praying it all comes to a good end because everyones being hurt by the sanctions its affecting everybody the us isnt only sanctioning iran but also any Foreign Company seeking to do business there this is why more and more firms are now leaving the country. This has dealt a critical blow to the economy in the past weeks prices have doubled making fruits and vegetables an affordable for many. Years i do not know the prices have been going up so we need to adapt rents are skyrocketing weve been saving on food and i was the old school. As poverty grows so does the peoples anger with the u. S. And europe. This could strengthen hardliners in tehran. Could further sanctions force iran to its knees. Shine arche on what are you hearing from friends and relatives in tehran in iran about the situation there. Scientists are imposing off the u. S. Your military sanctions are. Coming. Hotly. And we see for example as a prize goes high 45 present compering to previous years. Approximately 40 per cent. We dont we do not really should not have emotion because iran has expert 40 Years Experience and invite. Adding sanctions yes the sanctions hurt iran but it will not bring iran to the knees it won redirecting the what will come 20. 2020 in the next us president ial election theres basically 2 definitions of bringing iran to its knees one is whether prolonged hardship would possibly cause the population to rise up promote a resistance against the regime and the other one is whether it would essentially force the regime to make concessions youre saying neither my vote because if you also look at soros also