Services. Hes my guest this week from london. How worry go russia spies about the progress of the war . People inside are not real happy, lives away as a war is going. And they blamed just one guy by the medical jump of that. So who is most likely to turn against who tune and why . How long can he blame others for the setbacks to the invasion . He ordered. Is anyone waiting in the wings to take over if he stumbles . And what are the chances of that camp putin in the long term survive this . Do think a lot thing. So all that and more on conflict of andrew, so that of welcome to complex on thank you for having me for a long time, you and some of your colleagues have maintained extraordinary contact with whistleblowers in the Russian Security services. You implied recently that failures by russias army causing cracks in russias leadership . How serious in your view are those cracks while others correct . Was the start of his war by and talk in his own people and be see him a try catch his for the intelligence agency. That he placed on the house arrest to f as b jr. All Domestic Agency box for the intelligence range in charge of the situation ukraine than it was on the National Guard. And the deputy head of the National Guard was forced to retire. And he was just 45 years old. So yeah, it doesnt look really good. And it sounds really, really different from the p. This was our budget report and had, and that caused a lot of confusion inside of the Security Services. And people inside are not really happy because the way the war is going. And they blame just one guy. Why doesnt he risk turning some of them into powerful enemies against him . After all, is a pretty ruthless system, isnt it . Yes it is. But the thing is bad about Russian Security agencies and the army. They do not have a tradition tool. Conspire to be honest. The last time the Russian Military tried to have some of called that was probably in the 19th century where 5, if father bore bolt off this embrace the nation 25 and they didnt go well for them. The Russian Security services, all this are controlled. The army of us all this is brain. I was the military content that isnt one of the big. Ready department of the f as b, and they have their own people and provide in every military department and never a military unit. So for the military, its not actually an option. Its also not an option for the Security Services, because what the nor poochie and just for his own security as to security agents just. And they just that the protection person that if you were pushing though, whos loyalty, do you think you could now count on . And conditionally, i think his personal Security Services, he has the service of the protection of the president miss. People are close to him. And also his he has is the federal protection service. Again this people are both tockets if provides and protection for him. And for high level officials, and usually these people are very low to him when they be inside is in the system. People in top positions who are looking at the poor performance of the army, looking at this huge economic backlash from the west thats about to hit them and saying, we cant survive this. Its all gone too far. You talk to some of russian spies. How worried are they about the progress of the war and, and the reaction to it in the west . Something they dont seem to have attracted in . Well, yes, they are war but not because of the ration of the west or the one you train them most worth about their positions. They see that which has been a tie. Can they own people for quite some time . And to be honest, that started before the war, weve been living in this climate of selective professions for probably 7 years now. And that is why we have governors and ministers in jail. And also we have is be people in jail. So people inside, they are mostly of board to bought, bakery yes, but of coffee, i understand now that trouble believes was not go and would it well. And theyre made mostly theyre thinking about themselves. We do not only, we dont only have a tradition to or well, of really good conspiracists, but also its a problem of a lack of political acquisition. While its very different from what we had like 20 years ago, 20 years ago in russia, we still had some political conscious political groups. And if you have say, several generals though unhappy if the president , the police, there had some Political Force to go and to ask them for political support. We do not have this faith now. The political position is either in, in jail or a in a czar. Last week, one of your fellow journal flood, the amount of such kin whos published a number of letters from an apparent whistle blow and the f s. B. He went so far as to say that with every week the war goes on, the risk of a coup against putin is growing. You wouldnt agree with that, would you . Oh, 1st of all was 2nd. Hes not my call. If hes not journalists, his human rights activists, and hes a very good human rights activist. He has his own sources, but my contacts and thought of the secret to services. Theyre not i dont hear from them, but theyre ready for some sort of action. I dont think they are there yet. When you say ready, ready, in what way . Psychologic be ready already in terms of organizational movements. What. What is that read its . Its really difficult for them psychologically. And organizational psychological because now we have in the rest of Security Services, people who grew up and met their careers and the one president and probably the one director of the f b because the guy who is now is in charge. He has been around since 2007 with that means that you have a junior ration of, of officers who have no experience without the people. I mean, the father lived us their political struggles. They grew up thinking that the president would be forever. And that i would say narrow, its based thinking and that horizon they, when you talk to them, they usually talk about the department, maybe about the unit, but never about the service and never about the country. They do not have b s. B, guys, yes. About the future and most of the concerns about themselves. So psychologically, its a really difficult for them are gonna sessional as i sat just to build and none the Ground Organization inside was would be really huge challenge because we have this big problem of mistrust inside of the Security Services. So you have middle level officers distrusting the general and general destruction. They, subordinates, how one of these people inside the Security Service about losing their privileges and their money. And the perks because put in and helped to create a john talk chrissy in russia. Hasnt he institutions lives corruption in the police and Security Service has been demick for years of net yes, or the straw box and the falls at 60 be been living in a slightly different reality. Puts on stripped to f. S b and other Security Services of the right to travel abroad. So they already law some of a privileges. They also, they do not have a disability rights to have property abroad. So based on the some sort of not depression, but some, some sort of pressure from the president quite some time. So they have to buy their loyalty. Doesnt t with something. Yes. Yes, absolutely. Yeah. They have been joined good salaries and all that. But it means that van not feeling themselves independent there the instrument that was made very clear about them. So you can see them in every criminal case against the political opposition of the russian, the lease. But we are not acting independently. Whatever happens with putin, there is no sign of any liberal faction waiting in the wings to take over. Is there none whatsoever . No, it doesnt exist. And to be honest, if its a whole bad, say, is a rationale golf now might be while were bow just because dave puts on those attractions all, its not a really option here. These people because they lost their contracts with some years ago. And theyve been given help by the government, by military contracts. Now, many of them became part of the Russian Military industrial complex. And that makes me even more dependent on the kremlin and looking at the repression thats been going on now for some time. And obviously has been stepped up during the war. We have what, 15000 people so far arrested on the streets, beatings, widespread intimidation, long prison sentences. Are you hearing any qualms at all from the Intelligence Services that this is going to fall, that soviet style repression is perhaps no longer sustainable in 2022. Not to hear that article into great people inside just Security Services. Got convinced that that there was a lot of best young again because they had this big idea that all the things in russia happened before because of their medicines. And there has been a big fear, but Something Like 970 and mice one day repeats itself. In russia, and they have biz bis obsession has their own revolution. The problem that sort of a lucian is, but in they opinion, evolution was started by a small bunch of amy grass, not by a big political party. That is why they are convinced. But when you to suppress all kinds of political activity, just no matter how big it is, because were not behind the crack down the new crack down on the like saying the value of the opposition politician, for instance, in the extra 9 years that hes been given in jail, other likely to be more show trials like his on the way. I expect mall shot trials, but not against a political opposition because its all, reggie non exist them in the country. But you can expect some big criminal investigations against the russian, the late because these days is mostly consult with the loyal to all of the russian bureaucracy. And so you can expect some more governance, some more ministers, a sentence out. And that is why the secret service is concerned, because when they see that theyre now on the attack, and so for a moment about putins rhetoric, keys, spoken of traitors and scum in society and the need for self purification. Is he trying to divert blame from himself and on to those who havent supported his war . While he tries to, to rely on bis feelings, shared by many of the country that russia is. This is poor for us. And that has been all this under some sort of from the west and the biggest, how far the west, in this case provided by liberals in the country. So actually what is which is doing right now is encouraging people to leave the country. Remember him, his famous line that the russians people will split ah, this traitors out of a mouth, just like a flea. I think that was his expression. So actually hes encouraging people to leave and the b. C. Bad already. Mobile, 70000. 00 specialists left to come check. Not to mention intelligence. John, listen activists. This pushing out of people who dont support the war. How does that messaging go down with the public at large, the majority still packing the war . Unfortunately, yes. And they think that, ah, actually, it may be good for the country, some sort of cleansing of the country because of his liberal fe joy, they bow goods, well fly, and all of us. And now its time door, protect our country. So we have this deep failing, all of a message is for trust them putting knows how to play with it. What about when the public finds out the scale of the casualties which havent yet been revealed to them . Just as they found out when the soviets were in afghanistan, soldiers mothers have shown themselves in the past to be a pretty formidable voice in Russian Society having by 1st of all of its kind of activities so far are good, is ation. You mention that most of soldiers is suppressed, but forages. So its not actually safe or the mothers door. The cold is going is ation and block for how the other problem is that pushing actually he understood something about the war in chechnya, that for instance, its better not to have soldiers drafted than big speeches sent to the wall. That is why you see all this people now taken prisoners and ukraine and them mostly from siberia, from distant regions, and some for russia like more to go there. And you said he didnt care about them. Well, if you have some People Killed and you have a relative in the small town in and lower their soft costs. But that would be a problem only for the small community. Not for see just like moscow, some pictures book. But they were sensitive enough about the casualties and when comes most proud of the newspaper, printed some figures briefly on march the 22nd and then raised them figures which suggested the army had lost nearly 10000 men with more than 16000 injured. They were very worried about that. What they cover up the casualties on the latest vigorous provide that last week was 1351 People Killed. But again, of course its very far from reality. Yes. You absolutely right. We got, we didnt know that spot too much surprise. It didnt trigger any reaction in the Russian Society. So you have his mothers, you have a relative, quiet word, but thats all about it. And to be honest, the most astonishing part of that is these relatives and mothers, they are mostly worked about a songs, but theyre not one or 2, but what their songs doing in your brain. So base is astonishing, lack of sympathy for the ukrainians, which to me is very shocking because every single family, all not single look at every 2nd family in russia, has some relatives in your brain. What went wrong with the progress of the war with the organisation of the war last week . Ego get in former kernel and the f. S. B counterintelligence said the war in ukraine was based on a catastrophic, the incorrect assessment of ukraines forces. The enemy was underestimated in every aspect. If thats true, why was the intelligence so poor . Well, because it was not only bought but intelligence, it was also bought the consumer of his intelligence. Everybody knows, including people inside of the f as b that pollution, all this has had strong opinions about ukraine and about the functionality or just the functionality of the ukrainian space. And we know that youre right, youre not because you had to strongly pinions. So youre going to listen to any country intelligence, is that what youre saying . Absolutely, and its not it bobs health above that. So the russian intelligence try to tell him that, look, you would be great at the vast grid of the flowers. Its about a very cynical approach and assumption bad. The gradient stage and ukrainian people will just give up, the state will collapse immediately and we just need to while to impose our wheel. And thats what happened to the huge investments russia is supposed to have made in its forces in recent years. We now hear from western intelligence that claims that the numbers huge numbers of russian missiles simply dont work. Dont fly straight, dont explode on impact. What happened was money or siphoned off when corrupt deals by, by people connected to the military. Well, i think that yes, the performance of the russian army is not very impressive, but i would blame not hold his army buckles of political leadership. These war was very different from all the previous put and was in many respects, include them the way its actually lat. Im is a chain of command. Even now is still unclear. An old previous, which is worse. You have this think its called the joined rebel forces and usually you have a commander and you know, his name is that was public. Im in the oldest and you the name of a general us ultimately in charge of that situation on the battlefield. What weve seen happen generally killed on the battlefield, havent we . Thats pretty unusual, isnt it . To have janet was actually there . Absolutely, and i think the problem is that we do not have this general command right now. So we do not know who is in charge, and that is why you have all this problem with communications. We have current nation, and that is why as a general, they think that we need to go was a frontline to see by themselves and they get killed. So its not really goods and tom self. How the whole thing is organized. But political element, i think still plays a huge role in that. For instance, we do not understand militarily speaking, why we have the National Guard troops sent into ukraine. These people are trained to deal with their professors on the streets, not to be engaged in punk battles. And now, well, now actually for a month, b, c columns of these people sent in the ukraine, get killed and darned. And nevertheless, the russian government still doing this misses. So that of what, what should we read into the strange appearance of the defense minister . Shall i go after a long absence from public view was slurring in it. These words, in a way we havent heard before. And the rumors reported by the ukrainians had been that hes had heart problems if he damage goods. Now in putins eyes, all i heard from my sources, but the question was quite unhappy. There were 5 guests showing goal, but what do we need to remember back to get sugar is extremely small. And his very shrewd political operator has been around for 30 years, much longer than putting himself and he knows how to play with food. And so he could have some problems that he has caused, but also he could play for a time the problem put in his face and now is that there is no real replacement for their game show goal. We used to have the collection of popular generals who became popular because of the 2nd church and ones of war and george and sir, what show gore di if he got rid of them, most of them. So if you need to find a good replacement for shribel right now, it would be if huge challenge and may be a struggle. Just wanted to make sure that we can understand that reports in the last few days have said russia is going to concentrate its military efforts on the done bass region. One should say, it has so far, no sign as other operations are ending, but it is moscow trying to recalibrate its war aims to something it can achieve after having failed to achieve its initial aims. Andrei, cartoon of who heads the Russian International council, says the countries leadership comp lose no matter what they will need to end this whole story with some kind of victory. What if i cant . While yes, it looks like theyre trying to provide some explana