National hero, and when it comes to the reverbiations, the National Security issue and they, for the most part, want to see it in the economic sphere. Theyre really hoping, as rouhanis Campaign Promises indicated and hes continually said so, some of this sanction relief is going to be a breath of new breath of fresh air for the countrys economy and hes sticking with his Campaign Promises which, for the most part he has a the of promise is but very heavy handed when it came to Economic Relief it is unclear, for the most part, where he stands when it comes to domestic, political and social reforms. Promises have been made, some minor, achievements have taken place, but for the most part it is unclear if hes going to allow the deal to be used kind of reform the politics domestically as well. Lastly, the opposition, i mentioned, reformist factions in the Civil Society, they view it as an unprecedented achievement. Theyve shown a great amount of patience and support when it comes to sidelining their own demands while the negotiation process was going and theyve given a lot of power i believe to the administration. The administration, again i think briefly, was alluded to, needed credibility of the iranian people to sit at the negotiation table and negotiate on their behalf something arguably they were lacking in 2009 because the population was so divided. So they are hoping for the debate that took place, negotiation, to essentially act as a model when it comes to what they call potential National Dialogue. They are hoping that diplomacy, dialogue engagement is going to essentially overcome the environment of isolation, extremism and an taggism, even domestically. Interestingly enough, i was reviewing some of the reformist weeklies, they already have a set of preconditions in mind that if a debate, National Dialogue takes place, theyre asking for Mutual Respect, some level of recognition from the other sides point of views, negotiation should focus on present and future, not the past, negotiations should take place based on realities of the Current Power dynamics. And their expectations, i think more or less youre familiar with, demanding more press freedoms, more transparency accountability of the government. But yeah, thats where they stand. I think what happens interesting, as last point if i may, the dynamic between the administration and the reformists. I think one thing that makes rouhani unique, unlike ahmadinejad a conservative, he doesnt really belong to what we call a political current. Hes not a rormist. Hes not a conservative. So he needs the vote and the support of both sides within the society for upcoming elections, parliament being a big one, coming up, and his reelection again. So it would be really interesting to see how hes going to play that game. If he completely ignores demands of the reformists, hes going to lose their support, and if he does give too much, hes going to have a bun. Of mad conservatives on his hand that hes going to have to deal with. So that dynamic is also teresting to kind of observe and look at. Im going to leave it there. Im going to do one last question down the row, and then well open it up to questions. Weve been talking as if the deal is going to go through, so very briefly, what happens if Congress Says no . Speak for your own area of expertise what will happen to the inspections regime what will happen to sanctions, what will happen, how will iran respond, et cetera . Well i will start off by saying i do think the deal will go through. But for the sake of the argument, if the deal is not implemented, iran will be in a place where it can dramatically increase its Nuclear Activities quite quickly. It can nearly double its uranium enrichment capacity, so that time it would take for iran to obtain enough material for a Nuclear Weapon would drop dramatically down to a number of weeks. Iran could do that quite quickly. Also far less intrusive monitoring and verification than there is now with this interim deal in place. Iran would wry vert to a basic safeguard agreement it has with the International Atomic energy agency. That would give the agency some access to irans sites but it would not be as complete as would be implemented under the final deal. So Irans Nuclear program would certainly increase and iran could escalate that quickly. Let me clarify. If the u. S. Says no, the agreement doesnt stand anymore . Like the other partners i mean, if im sure, yes, well touch on this, but if the agreement if the u. S. Says no, because there will be no sanctio sanctions relief, i cant see why iran would be incentivized to follow through on commitments. Would be great if iran chose to abide by the Nuclear Restrictions regardless, but i doubt that is the choice iran would take. So under the Iran Nuclear Review act of 2015, were currently in a 60day review period where Congress Reviews the deal and the president is prohibited from extending any additional sanctions relief to iran. If Congress Passes a joint resolution disapproval and the president s threatened to veto that joint resolution, but if the veto is overridden under the piece of legislation, the president is prohibited from taking any action involving any measure of statutory sanctions relief under that agreement. So any congressionally mandated secondary sanctions that have been imposed that were to require a president ial waiver, National Security waiver, to negate the impact of, the president would be prohibited from extending that. There is will intricate legal argument why there might be no ability for the president to extend sanctions leaf but you can talk to me afterwards. But when the rubber hits the road, that means no removal or no sanctions relief on irans energy sector, its automotive sector, on its oil exports. The major significant sanctions targeting iran, major sectors of iran economy, will not go away. In practice, i would say that European Companies would probably continue to adhere to u. S. Secondary sanctions particularly over the last five years, i this is especially for mid to large European Companies but theres a pretty good culture of compliance that has been developed. But once you get outside of that, i dont its sort of on a case by case basis. Especially in d. C. We talk about, well, if there is no sanctions relief, then china will take this action or russia will take this action. But theres really sort of three parties so any sort of to sanctions. Theres governmenttogovernment or theres the u. S. And secondary sanctions, foreign governments theres the private sector each Company Makes their Business Decisions baseed on risk reward calculus. While the cutting off from the u. S. Financial system is a powerful disincentive for some companies dealing with iran, not with the United States, might be worthwhile. Theres a bank in china, sanctioned in 2011, but continues to operate and continues to do significant iranrelated trade for chinese companies. So ill defer to sort of to kelsie about what iran would do on the nuclear side. But i think, over time, with sanctions, you would see the impact of them continue to devolve particularly outside the eu. Im also very hopeful the deals going to go through. To answer the question, i think, as i laid it out, youre going to have different reactions by different internal players and iran. I think ultimately the biggest loser of the game is going to be rouhanis administration. He has banked a lot of his credibility as a president and administrations ability to manage the company on his Foreign Policy and Nuclear Issue specifically. So some actually go further than and essentially say that he might even completely ignore domestic issues and hope that the impact of sanction relief on the economy is going to be enough. That would make the voters happy to reelect him. Thats kind of up to debate. Im not sure about that. But for the most part, hes going to have a very hard time, i think, gaining the support he needs within the populous to continue to manage the country and for future reelections. I think i briefly touched on what the Supreme Leader is going to do, conservative factions. And i think its also going to be dark, dark times for the opposition, reformists and Civil Society if the deal does not go through. Theyve already kind of stuck by the by romanys administration. Theyve put their demands aside for the time being. Every time they speak up for the most part, in the media, limited access they have, theyre told the priority is nuclear deal now. If deal does not go through, i think theyre also going to be losing a significant amount of hope that they have now, that their demands are next in line if you will that are going to be addressed. Were optimistic bunch here. Im also pretty optimistic its going to go through. That said i cant echo what they said enough, they stole my talking points. Sorry. So i do also believe its going to be a huge blowback for the reformists, Civil Society generally and the idea that rejecting this deal will bring iran back to the table for a better deal is pure fantasy, its not going to happen, not anytime soon, north for the foreseeable future. It will prove the u. S. Is not trustworthy, they will say we gave up all of these things, and look, they went and rejected the deal. So this will play very nicely into the hands of the hardliners. I will say also that more generally, something thatss not emphasized enough, it would hurt the u. S. credibility to Enter International agreements in the future. Europeans are not seeing this very well. For them, the train has left the station. Theyre thinking of the next issues, human rights, a top priority, and you know businesses are ready to go back in. So for them its left the station. The fact were still sitting here, having this discussion, is looking ludicrous. The u. S. Will look not very well, lets put it this way, internationally if the deals rejected. Great. Lets open it up to questions. House rules, please have it be a question. It should have a question mark at end in the sound of your voice. No statements, please. Identified yourself and lets try to direct it to one speaker. Since we have two nonproliferation experts, we will alternate them if they come, okay. Wait for the boom. It doesnt elevate your voice, so you know. You have to project. Speak up. Questions for kelsie. Clarify regarding restrictions on Peaceful Nuclear explosions. A wildly held belief Nuclear Explosions are a loud peaceful activity under the nonproliferation treaty . Specifically wildly held arms control association, anyone. It certainly is an ambiguity in the treaty that has caused problems throughout the years since the treaty entered into force. And while it is not, i think, widely accepted that Peaceful Nuclear explosions advance peaceful civilian applications. The argument that the treaty permits that type of activity. So restrictions that iran agreed to related to weaponization, both rule out that mpt loophole on Peaceful Nuclear explosions but also undertaking activities for a nonnuclear purpose. And then applying research to a Nuclear Weapon later. So both are eliminated under the restrictions here in the deal. Right there in the glasses. Just make sure you project. My name is sarah, im a university of Michigan Law School graduate, a question for sam and reza. Imaging a situation where the deal goes through which we are optimistic about but im less optimistic youll see positive economic results faster in terms of sanctions relief. I think the compliance on the nuclear side jump in if im off on this that might be the easier aspect than economic sanctions part. When dealing with the u. S. Climate where it makes regulation really difficult for companies to know how to comply with a vastly changing landscape, when they go in, still have all of these things that are place, like, for example, administrative guidances arent binding. They say you can do that. Thats been a selling point in the administration about snapbacks how do you think if you have this delay of delivered promises on the economic sanctions relief aspect, that doesnt really result in much improvement domestically in the Economic Situation for iran. How will that impact the administrations ability to control the Security Apparatus and impact the reformist opportunity to engage in reforms . Sam, take the first part of that. I think you raid a really good point. Financial institutions in particular, but companies internationally internationally, have been scarred by the enforcement over the past five years. Weve seen some eyepopping numbers for bank fines. And you also hit it right on the head that ofac has been in the business of preventing Economic Activity for a very long time and it will require a significant culture change to get them to be encouraging business with iran or if not encouraging, at least providing clear guidance and engaging in significant back and forth and timely back and forth with companies that rk loare lookingo comply with sanctions. As i mentioned before, i think that the aml issues are going to be really big thing to watch, how thats dealt with. Well see. Were were were anticipating there will be significant guidance coming out with this deal weep have seen a bit of trend its not a trend yet, it will be a trend but a bit of change change in rolling out of the cuba the relaxing of cubarelated restrictions and guidance that accompanied that. I would expect there will be similar guidguidance, if not mo robust guidance, out of the nuclear deal and i think there will. I think treasury will make some to explain the remaining sanctions. Time will tell. Its yet to be seen. Weve seen a lot of interest in the Iranian Market but whether that translates into significant economic benefit, i think remains to be seen. I think thats a very difficult question to answer because, actually, before the panel started, i was commenting to leagues here sometimes it gets really tricky because of the fact that iran is an isolated country, traveling there directly is not always the easiest thing to accomplish. So you get into this game of trying to decipher what one propaganda versus another means and how serious is the irgc or the Supreme Leader or conservatives when they say if they dont see sanctions relief immediately, theyre going to restart their Nuclear Activities or various steps within it. I actually want to piggy back on last point that sam was making. I think partially what hopefully both sides are hoping for is that this practice, this exercise we just had is going to allow us to continue to communicate for clearly in the future. So despite some of the harsh rhetoric that the iranian conservatives have and military apparatus, i dont necessarily believe that right away theyre going to, you know jump in trucks and head towards the Nuclear Facilities to restart whatever they may restart to kind of make a point, if you will. So i think if there is clear communication, i think if it is what iranians keep saying, if they sense that theres Mutual Respect and understanding and it is not a political ploy or a political game that is being played and it is honestly the technicalities of legal and financial law, that that is in place, we i personally am hopeful that theyre going to show a level of flexibility. But just my word, i guess, versus another. Just one quick point, also, on the snapback. I dont if if god forbid that would happen, whatever degree and the deals sort of off, companies, i would very much expect, to have some allowance for snapback built into contracts for clauses. To a certain extent, as weve seen with some of the big bank fines, they were sort of caught off guard by what their compliance responsibilities were, that will not occur Going Forward. Were living in a sanctions world and companies are well aware that they have that they must comply with sanctions and they will account for any potential risks Going Forward that they will need to start complying again with a much broader array of iran sanctions. Can that be a hashtag . Someone start it. Feel free to use that. The woman in the third row. Yeah. Yep. Just wait for the boom mike. And project, please. Keep reminding everybody. Laura wells. Im wondering what this deal, assuming it goes through, how impact irans standing with the rest of the arab world and will the rest of the arab world try to flex its muscle and to reassert its power influence over the region. Who wants to take that one . I could take a stab. Take the mike. It depends what part of the air rash world youre talking about. There are very different views among the arab countries there are countries that have been pro this engagement that helped make it happen, like owe man, there are countries that have not necessarily been pro active in making it happen but said this is good, this is good for us, qatar is one of them. And theres saudi arabia, that we know, has been vocal, if not more than israel, that against the deal. Generally speaking, it seems like most countries in the region are sort of taking it as fait accompli and going with it. How its going to affect dynamics, i dont see any major change in terms of ir