Cars on them. You would really enjoy that. And he will do a bilateral with the president of myanmar. You can tell the white house is managing the myanmar trip very carefully given the fact that the president called the president of myanmar and the leader of the opposition earlier this week to get ahead of that trip. The president has three important issues to manage within the myanmar situation. First and, i think, foremost on most peoples minds is the 2015 election. Right now, precluded to run for president. I think americans would like to see changes to the constitution so she would be able to run. There will be a question, and this will be a hard one, between the white house trying to support continued reform, economic and political reform in myanmar. After all, this is a country that had cloistered itself for decades and has made an incredible amount of political and economical reform but theres a real push from senate and house legislators, including the new senate leader, Mitch Mcconnell on human rights and democracy and myanmar. The president will have to address this. I think he should. The fact that democracy and reform in myanmar cannot be allowed to stall. I think also theres a recognition that you have to be practical about how much change the country can handle at one time. The other two issues that he has to address while hes there is the plight of the rohenga. Steve will talk about that. And the toaster achieve regional cease fires. Strong core burman population but ceasefire negotiations with a wide group of minorities on the periphery of that center. Actually thats going very well. The sovereign integrity of myanmar is important and those cease fires having a political basis not just a military basis is vital. And finally, this is an important story, the new president of indonesia will be at the apec eas and the g20 meetings. There was earlier fear that he might not go to the g20. Hes going. And president obama will meet him for the first time and do a bilateral with him in brisbayne, in australia. That should be a very important meeting. Its got half of aseans economy. It may be nuanced and its indirect but the indonesians will play a very big role in areas like Foreign Policy and National Security concerns in the east asia summit and in asia generally. Under joko wis fiveyear term. And coming to that, i think one thing youll see out of the east asia summit and the asean summit is a growing determination to stand up to china on the Maritime Security threat that china has very practically posed. Mike mentioned, and hes correct, that the chinese have not let their foot off the gas on the South China Sea. Rhetoric from china on a code of conduct is really the best way to look at this, its like the Charlie Brown the football is the code of conduct in the South China Sea. The chinese are holding it, saying were serious this time. Come on, come on, kick it. And they pull it back every time. I think asean really wants the United States to continue its role in putting this on the agenda, talking about it. And we see increased asean cohesiveness behind the South China Sea issues. For the United States not to be in a defensive crouch on these economic initiatives. The United States has been put into that sort of reactive mode on the Asian Infrastructure, Investment Bank and the ftap, free trade area of the asiapacific feasibility study. The way to get around this is play offense. What we havent seen from the good things from this white house, we have not seen a comprehensive Economic Strategy for asia. If its not hard to put in place. If they can get their act together and articulate a strategy, the rest of asia will be game for that and theyre very much interested in not having a synocent rick order or, god forbid, political integration in asia. Thank you very much. Well wrap up with steve morris, with remarks from steve morris. And dr. Morris is the director of our Global Health program. Then well open it up to your questions. For those on the periphery, well be passing around a microphone. And if you can identify yourselves, that would be very helpful. Thank you. Andrew, thank you very much for pulling us all together and good morning. Im going to speak briefly to the mission we had to myanmar in august. But before that, a few words about ebola. The president yesterday announced a 6. 1 billion supplemental for ebola. The majority of that money for overseas purposes both in west africa and in support of the Broader Health ajaend, thats a lot of money. We have been the lead power in the response with 1 billion plus commitment on both the military and civilian side. This steps up the game significantly. We cant do it on our own. The ec, world bank come to the table but the response from other parts of the world and other major powers has been very poultry. And this is despite a very aggressive diplomacy led by ambassador nancy powell and john kerry and others. Australia announced a 24 million commitment just recently following the announcement of the travel ban, which was itself quite controversial. China is the exception, committed up to 2 million. It has special capacities and experiences dating back to sars and pandemic flu response. Most of its efforts are concentrated in sierra leone where u. S. Responses are concentrated in liberia. This is a very welcome positive development to have the chinese making a commitment of this kind for multiple reasons. Scanning and other points of entry. The region is quite alive to the threat. Thats changed significantly in the last six weeks. I will try to minimize any of the redid you know dancy with ernies comments, which i completely agree with. The delegation that we took out in august to myanmar is a follow on to an earlier mission focused on health. This one we did jointly with the Southeast Asian studies, ernies deputy, who i hope is here, was the coleader of that with me. We went out there as a prompting, forwardleaning opposition and one moving towards harder, negative conclusions that things were regressing or stalled and we framed up this around that question around which direction are things going and we put a focus around governance issues, constitution reform, around the peace negotiations with the ethnic states and government agenda with a special focus on health. Congress is moving to be more aggressive and the opinion climate has hardened and thats something that the president has to deal with as he moves forward here. I in terms of our impressions, the electoral season is fully upon folks in myanmar. You will see this has become an overriding prism, that theres a lot of excitement. Theres a lot of interest. Theres a lot in play. We dont know whats going to happen in terms of these constitutional provisions that ernie pointed to and what will ultimately be the cal class of aung san suu kyi. This is an ongoing negotiations and back and forth right now. Cease fire negotiations in august, federalalism toward a goal and toward longterm negotiatings on the political agenda. Theres been further bad news around that, which we detail in our report. So its back and forth. And still hard to draw conclusions. On the health agenda, whats remark wrabl is that you have major interests. The global fund, the world bank, the usg using its role, the uk. On a longterm basis to facilitate the reform of that sector and major advances and as we detail in this report they are beginning to show substantial gains. But theyre making those calculations on a three to fiveyear timeframe. Its not keyed to whether the electoral cycle is successful at the end of 2015. Its keyed on the notion that theres a government to work with, partners to work with, the environment is favorable and ngos and others can move ahead. Related to that on health we put a big focus in resistant malaria. That may sound like a purely technical issue. In fact, its a threat to disable the therapies that exist globally right now in control of malaria. The resistance is centered within myanmar and the greater rakhine subregion and beginning to combat that. The militaries have to be brought into the equation. They are being brought into the equation. The global fund has done a remarkable job. The Gates Foundation is involved and the like. Ernie mentioned rakhine. We were, i think, during our visit where we spent a lot of time talking to the parties to this, both government, msf, u. N. And others, it was a fairly brutal, brutal assault back in march upon the msf and the u. N. The state, federal Union Authorities pretty much abdicated responsibilities and stood back while that happened and now theres been a process of trying to repair the damage. The president has put special emphasis on this. Congress has put special emphasis on this. This is a problem that is terribly complicated and difficult to reconcile and move forward. And its not going to be fixed tomorrow. But its something we cant turn away from, nor have we. And i think the u. S. Embassy and ambassador mitchell has done a good job putting the stake in the ground, standing up to this abuse and insisting on holding the government to account for it. And i think it deserves enormous amount of credit on that. I wont go into detail about the buddhist and muslim violence, land grabs, crackdowns on journalists, but its in the report. On the big issues around the constitutional matters and the electoral preparations and the like, its just stay tuned here. Our view is that the u. S. Has struck a middle path of being engaged but being cautious and continuing to call out those areas that are most problematic. The u. S. Engagement there draws broad and wide support across the political spectrum. It continues we have been able to navigate as a country a very difficult and politicized environment. I mentioned about rakhine needing to push that. On the electoral piece, the central prism leading into 2015 for making judgments, ndi, iri, ifis are on the ground, operation operational, doing a terrific job. We put a spotlight on that and call for stepping up that effort in specific ways. On the health, we applaud what has happened and call for a doubling of the u. S. Bilateral engagement and continued very strong support around the global fund. And the world bank. Just in closing, we need to be realistic around u. S. Leverage. We need to be realistic around this complex transition. We should not rush to judgment around making headline conclusions, categoric conclusions about where things are and where theyre going to be in another year. Im not sure thats a particularly prudent way to judge something as complicated as this. Thank you very much. Thank you, steve. Well open it up to questions. First, im going to go to george. Thanks. Two questions. One, you talked about some specific things on u. S. China relations. How would you characterize the overallstate of the relationship . Secondly, what role does this election play . You mentioned the Little Things but how much has the region and the regional leaders paid attention to the u. S. Election and the guy that they once saw as a rock star, do they see him as a weak, lame duck . Does he have to prove to them that hes still a leader on this trip . I think the chinawatching community in general in washington has been a bit surprised that xi jinping as leader has been less accommodating and tougher than expected. The saying in beijing one hears now is he talks like mao excuse me, talks like dung, acts like mao. The expectation was that simultaneous pressure against india, japan, the asean countries, Cyber Attacks on the u. S. , that this would lead to a natural pushback. Indeed, as ernie said for asean, which tends not to like tension, there has been an unprecedented amount of pushback. Whats been surprising, it hasnt appeared to lead to any cal abrasion in chinese Foreign Policy. So i would characterize u. S. China relationship as one that is not in a downward spiral but one where a heightened level of tension is the new normal. The challenge for the president is to continue framing the relationship in a win win way because, as matt and others have said, on broad economic issues, management of north korea and region regional integration, were generally still on side. Apec is a transpacific grouping. Putting enormous effort into it. It is not an apec summit in beijing thats designed to push the u. S. Out. Quite the contrary. China wants to accelerate movement on the free trade area of the asiapacific, including us, mexico, chile, canada and so forth. The reason that the administration and others are saying no is because its too fast. We have to get tpp done is and through congress. Two reasons, one to set the rules before we get into deep negotiations with china. The second is congress cant digest a trade agreement right now that includes china. Were slowing china down a little bit but in some ways chinas major theme for this apec is more integration. So the context is not one of downward spiraling hostility, but the level of tension is higher. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs released its biannual views of the world. 47 of americans say u. S. China relations are controversial. 3 of americans didnt have an opinion. I would say what do the asian leaders think, is he a rock star, is he a lame duck . I think the jury is out. The hope is that the narrative among a lot of the elites, including leaders, is that president obama has the asia engagement dna in his blood. Its what he wants to do. But he has been sort of hijacked by domestic politics and the elections in the United States and now he may be able to turn to asia for legacy issues. Look, the guy wants he said himself. His self approve essie is i will be the First Pacific president of the United States. He speaks indonesia. He was born in hawaii, grew up in indonesia. For the Southeast Asians, they do hope that this is a guy who can help talk to americans and set a foundational understanding among not just politicians, but among americans that asia is vital to the future of ourselves, our kids and future not only our jobs but our security. And i think thats the hope. So, theres still that hope there that because he lost the election that thats what he will have to accommodate. Work with the republicans. Do trade and then start to talk to americans about asia. Just want to make sure i got one fact right. Trying to remember what i said. 49 said cooperative. 48 said adversarial. I think i said it the other way around. Gilliam . Between the u. S. And china over sort of gaining friends in asia. You mentioned that asean was kind of welcoming american engagement and american pushback against china in the South China Sea. Are there other divisions within asean . Which countries in that grouping are leading more toward china . I would guess cambodia was one that was always identified but thailand, perhaps . I think its a fair question. From aseans point of view, we have to remember balance over everything. Balance in everything. So if it was the americans that were playing, you know, complete offense and we had all the ideas and china was on its back foot there would be a demand pull for more chinese engagement from the aseans. We have to be careful about understanding that. We have an historic window in the United States. Its the three as. Abbott in australia pulling for him, pulling for more u. S. Engagement, abe in japan and asean. Everybody is lined up. They want to see the americans playing offense in asia because of the proximity, geographical proximity of china. Because of chinas this disconnect between chinas rhetoric, what it says it wants to do and what its actually doing on and under the seas. That worries asean. And, quite frankly, they want it all. They want china to feel safe, secure and be economically successful so that they can share in that success. But they want the americans also to be economically engaged, successful and deeply engaged on a security basis so china doesnt use its newfound economic might to impose its own definitions of sovereignty on smaller neighbors. [ inaudible ] i talked to the cambodians a year and a half ago and they said you misunderstand where we are on china. We want the americans to be engaged. He sounded like every other asean leader to me. He wants balance. Now in practice, his foreign minister has been off the reservation on that front. And thats being very kind because the cameras were rolling. But i actually dont think its particularly useful to do sort of a spectrum of the asean countries on this issue. Kristin . Thank you very much. Thank you. What should president obamas message be on hong kong . Obviously a lot of americans watch the prodemocracy protesters. Theyre going to have a lot of interest in that. How fine of a line does he need to walk . And also in terms of the constitution in myanmar is it realistic to think it can change before the elections and what specifically would have to happen . What does that process look like . Thank you. On hong kong, theres concern in the administration because within Chinese Media and government circles there are accusations that the United States is the evil hand. Right. Behind the protests. My recommendation would be dont worry about that, that the president should speak out clearly for in support of what these people in hong kong are asking for. I think there are ways to wrap it in language that suggests its good for chinas development, its good for chinas relations with other parts of asia, across the straights of taiwan and so forth. But as Margaret Thatcher might say, this is no time to go waddling. I think thats where theyre coming down. Its always harder to do this when youre in beijing and you dont control the media environment. It may be that secretary kerry was saying this so the president didnt have to say it as loudly. I remember traveling with president bush and trying to think about how to talk about these issues in beijing. But he did. And he found ways to talk about reli