Transcripts For CSPAN3 East Asia Summit Preview Security Pan

The carbon green coal technologies. My question is on the shortterm energies and Contingency Planning for an Oil Supply Disruption. The questions are the region prepared in terms of Strategic Oil stocks or oil sharing plans for an Oil Supply Disruption. Is the institutional architecture of the region the various International Forum such as the iea, asean, asean plus 3, as well as the east asia summit. Are they up to the task in terms of the regions institutional framework in dealing with shortterm Energy Crisis such as an Oil Supply Disruption using tools such as oil stocks or oil sharing plants . If not, what can be done . That is a great question and it kind of brings out the reality that simultaneously we all together have to do two things. One is manage the situation in which one exists now and the other is put in place the tools and the institutional and tec technological that can help us to move forward. I would say from the u. S. Perspective, we think that this issue that you raised is a very important one. And one where there has been very, very promising collaborations that have gone on, but i would not for a moment say that it is sufficient. In some regards to highlight a couple of examples of collaboration that has already been underway you can look at the work that the International Energy agency has done with a number of east asian partners looking at preparedness, responses, what Strategic Reserves are in place, what one would do, how industry could meet its requirements and continue to provide for the population. Thailand has been a very active participant with iea and has done a couple of Emergency Response exercises and has hosted a region wide engagement. China, of course, is another important east asia partner in this regard as the Worlds Largest importer. There to be candid we hope to find deeper collaboration Going Forward with china. China is building its own Strategic Reserves which is an important step to happen. We think that there is a great deal of scope for technical and policy and other interactions so that china, which has this enormous stake in the functioning of todays Global Oil Markets can provide the kind of transparency that is the necessity for all global participants including china to make informed decisions. And we welcome the steps that the Chinese National Energy Agency administration has taken together with the department of energy to deepen collaboration in this area. We think it is a really, really important thing. Institutional framework, good start, much more needed. Thanks for the question. Actually, you are the one who really understands more on this issue. Actually, asean talk, we try to come up with similar kinds of requirements of 90day strategy that i think in terms of stock pilings and gas could be included in some of the country. This is just for oil. As you know not many countries meet the 90day requirement because most of the stock hold inventories so all countries like thailand and others step up and commit to 90 days to 60 days except japan is having almost 200 days, i guess. I think in that regard we understand that building this kind of facility would cost investment. One time i have provided comment during this [ inaudible ] that with support from iea it is important that when you build this it has to be closely in terms of economy. It doesnt mean for asean country to hold stock for 90 days. There are many practices in the region you can exchange a swap kind of thing. It is important to look closely in terms of structure or economy. The reserve itself just to prevail if there is disruption within seven days or two weeks. It could hit the economy of that particular country. So some countries are small in terms of structure or economy it does not have to step up into building that reserve. Regional it becomes more significant or important. Asean will look at the requirement but also will pursue in the way how it will cost effectively implement this reserve. Thank you. In the case of japan we see the importance of the corroboration of Asian Countries to respond to such crisis. So thats why recent years we have talked under the framework of japan to how we can tackle this issue. The discussion is still in a very early stage. It will take time until more concrete solution will be decided or agreed. Im mark wall, former u. S. State department, more recently university of wyoming. My question concerns Nuclear Power. We had some comments on that, but would the panelists care to dment further on the future of Nuclear Power in the energy mix, particularly in japan and elsewhere in asia. At this moment as you know there is no Nuclear Power plants in operation. And in the past three years ago the portion of the Nuclear Power plants in total power supply were 32 . But at this moment there is 0. Now restarts of Nuclear Power plants is ongoing and as to the initial two Nuclear Power plants the Nuclear Regulatory authority approved the safetiness to those two Nuclear Power plants. Now we are in the process of persuading the local people. We are hoping early next year to have restart of those Nuclear Power plants. Earlier 20 Nuclear Power plants have already presented the plan to ask for the approval to the Nuclear Regulatory authority. One by one those applications will be examined. And during this time some more Nuclear Power plants will be restarted. At this moment it is very difficult to expect to what percentage we can lead up on Nuclear Power plants. The clear direction is that the japanese government needs to decrease the dependency on Nuclear Power plants for long time period. Thanks. I just want to say that for asean perspective so you can understand that we do not deny any Nuclear Power. It is always the option of the energy mix but that requires a lot of Human Capital and also capital costs itself. It is very expensive. Currently the construction of those Nuclear Power plants but thailand, malaysia also considering. I think there are public opponents to those kind in asia. It is very strong. Since the accident there is concern about Nuclear Power. More Emergency Response and preparedness in terms of the support in terms of accident, how operated in terms of data and information and so in that regard. The infrastructure needs to be added to the grid. You cant just put a nuclear plant. The system itself has to be wired in. It is not just the up front cost of the plant but the infrastructure that comes with it. Elsewhere in asia the chinese ambitions for nuclear are startling i think in the order of 50 giga watts over the next 10 or 12 years. In india we have been encouraged with recent news requirements signaling willingness to relook at the Nuclear Liability law which is a major obstacle to development of nuclear there. I just jump in to take advantage of this question and link back to the frame of the panel which is about Energy Security by its title. From our perspective in the u. S. We feel very, very strongly that Energy Security derives first and foremost from a high degree of diversification and good systems including institutional systems around the energy economy. We certainly will see nuclear being continuing to be a part of the fuel mix in the United States. Obviously other countries need to make their own choices but we do see a real value particularly in a world looking for low and no Carbon Energy solutions. We see a real value in the Civil Nuclear sector and see this as being an area that is full of potential for important collaborations also. To move the frontier, the Technology Frontier and when they are talking about small modular things over the horizon. We are almost out of time. We have two or three minutes standing between us and lunch. This question is addressed to can you identify yourself . Im nina and i work for the Childrens National medical health system. This question is suggested to the doctor. You mentioned population as one of the things that you would have to face eventually down the road. Has it partnered with Health Agencies either regional, local, or National Level to address this. With the hope it would reduce the number of consumers and the demand for energy consumption. Thank you very much. Its hard for me to address this. Besides china, they have clear policies on the population. Asean does not have any population policy in terms of the restrictions. I am aware of the issue and think there is a lot of Public Health programs in terms of providing more safe and in terms of maternal mortalities and children and adults. Its not really controlled population growth in itself. Asean, there is a sector in asia and not really a particular type of the issue. Im aware that there no policies that is controlled into the population for asean itself. Next a conference on asia featuring Business Leaders and policymakers from asia and the u. S. Former australian Prime Minister talks about u. S. Relations with china and what he sees as the false perceptions each country has towards the other. The conference previews issues on the agenda. And the Asia Pacific Economic cooperation meetings. The center for strategic and International Studies hosted this discussion in october. You know, in my professional live ive been around politicians for 40 years. Ive been around analysts for now 15 years in this sort of environment, but ive never been in this kind of a experience before. You know, for someone who can walk you into a new space intellectually and help you understand the significance of that space and also its political importance, this is this is rare. Ive been with politicians who when explained the significance of something will figure out the politics, you know, and ive been with analysts who understand the significance and dont have a clue how to think about it politically, you know . But very, very rarely the only other person frankly whose experience was like this was bill clinton. Bill clinton had that capacity to walk you into an intellectual place youve never been before and help you perceive its enormous significance and its political import. And kevin rudd can do that brilliantly. And so i when we asked him if he would come and join us today, it was an extra hope and were very grateful that he was willing to do it. Of course, the topic is something that he focuses on personally all the time. Prime minister rudd is currently hes affiliated with csis. Were very proud of that. Hes a distinguished statesman here at csis. Hes also at harvard where they get more of his time than i wish. Because im jealous. But he is willing to come here and has been very, very helpful and supportive of us in thinking through these complex issues. He is going to give all of you that opportunity today because youre going to have a rich opportunity for something thats unique. So would you with your applause please welcome kevin rudd. And thank you for being here. Well, thank you, john, for that great exercise in expectation management. I will not produce magic this morning and there will be no song and dance show. But i do appreciate the hospitality of csis and i acknowledge the work which it does, not just on behalf of the United States but by all individuals around the world who take the disciplines of Foreign Policy, International Relations and Strategic Policy seriously. It is a first Class Institute and it brings together first class minds which i presume is why all you folks are here this morning. Secondly, you made reference, john, to my time at the Harvard Kennedy school. After i came second in the National Elections in australia last september, which is a polite way of saying that i lost, the harvard guys kind of picked up the telephone and asked me to go to the Kennedy School to think. Having been in politics for are 15 years, thats not really been my business for the last 15 years. But to think. And to think about alternative futures for u. S. China relations. And in particular, whether in fact there is a way through some of what we who have professional followed this for many years regard as some of the intractables in that relationship. And Harvard Kennedy schools been very supportive of my work on that. I spent a lot of time talking to think tanks in washington, think tanks in beijing, think tanks in tokyo, and think tanks in delhi and singapore and moscow on these questions, as well as officials from those governments as well. Of course, given the topic that weve set this morning, which is about questions of future regional architecture, china does not constitute the totality of that picture, nor does the chinau. S. Relationship constitute the totality of that picture. So in my remarks here this morning, having been invited to do this only two days ago, let me seek to stand back and look at the trends at work as i see them across the asia pacific region. Secondly, whats going well. Thirdly, whats not going so well. Fourthly, where does the china u. S. Relationship fit within that for the future. And some final remarks on questions of architecture. If you stand back and try and look at the events in the asiapacific region, we tend to think that we are unique in terms of those factors, which are affecting the Global Business of International Relations. We are not unique. The factors at work in the international community, in my view, are largely comprised of two deep Underlying Forces which we in the policymaking business or the policy advising business need to be conscious of. One is this overwhelming dynamic of what we call globalization. We use the term a lot. We often use it glibly, but the sheer manifestation of it in what we say and do everything today and perceive one another is profound. Of course, the general turbo charging of globalization as we define it by the new technologies are simply compounding and quadrupling and mutating, whether it is in Financial Markets or economic exchanges, or, frankly, in the Resources Available to terrorist organizations. And so the varieties we started talking about a decade or so ago are now actually intensifying in their scope. And the overall dynamics of globalization at the economic level and at the social level, and to some extent at the cultural level, has been over the last 20 years or so since the end of the cold war in particular to draw peoples cultures, countries, nations, and even governments some are closer together simply as a product of the dynamic. This is a virtually unprecedented phenomenon in global history in terms of its intensity, its density, its complexity. But overall, a force for the good. Then pitched against it, of course, is a second set of forces which simultaneously acts in reaction to it and seeks to pull nations apart, either internally or between one another. These i could broadly describe as the forces of ethno nationalism or simply nationalism. Anyone who thinks that we have somehow mysteriously extinguished the forces of nationalism as a consequence of rational economic man ruling the world or rational economic woman ruling the world is simply deluding themselves. You have to understand politics in your own country to know thats not the case. But as you travel extensively across asia, the nationalist agenda in each country is palpable, real, visible and tangible, and it actually shapes deeply the thinking of most political elites. Of course, if you dig into that deeper, what is this ethno nationalist reaction, whether it is what we see in europe, whether it is what we see in various extreme forms in the new phenomenon we observe in the middle east or in some of the emerging and intensifying security challenges in east asia. Ethno nationalism often is a deep reaction to the phenomenon of globalization and the deep personalizing dimensions of globalization. What actually happens in response to that is those who dont win from the globalization project economically or lose who lose their identity as a consequence of the globalization project obviously feel threatened, alienated and threatened, and they therefore congregate around concepts and ideas and polit