To remain still . Its coming down, i mean, the cliche is you had to have your neck they didnt use a portrait studio. He would ask people to be still. Theyre coming down to 5 to 7 seconds. Its becoming faster. And i have again, because i enjoy the show i put on because of the photographs is beginning to make the camera. As it was has to manipulate is rather cumbersome. You couldnt handle the camera. It had to be in a tripod. My question would be gardners battle field photos, were they staged . Interesting question. The main drive gardner went out and got he along with everybody else was terrified by the carnage. It was a relatively small battle field. He moves his camera one or two spots. The shots find themselves. What you anticipate is what he did at gettysburg which is a light and this is an entirely different lecture. Ill make it quick. He manipulates a. The titles of his shots where he associates them erroneously and fraudulently with major figures who died on the spot where, in fact, if you will, the ordinary casualties of the ordinary soldier and associates them with generals like john reynolds. Then the Sharp Shooters were notorious for the sharp shooter series. He and his assistants pulled men out and moved them about 70 yards and manipulate the rifle and the aspect of the courts and create this visual tableau of the fate of this unfortunate soul. Its complete fraud. It wasnt discovered for some years after wards. Late in the 1960s s forensic photographer found by examining hundreds of gettysburg soldiers in a soldier that appears in the line of dead being ready to be buried. Gardner thats interesting at the very moment in which photography is claiming absolute truth. Lincoln is using it to deal with the emotional state and physiological state he was in, garner starts to create the uncertainty about the accuracy that we live with today. The ongoing debate. Is it real, photo bomb shopped, staged. There was a famous photograph from the spanish civil war a moment of the death where its laid out. It takes him. Its always its not just the luckiest, pardon the expression, shod in the world or was it staged . And gardner at the very moment so thats a great question. Thank you. To what extent you can watch the rest of the American History tv program any time on our website. Cspan. Org. Going live to cleveland this morning for a discussion of campaign 2016 focussing on polling demographics and issues. Live coverage here on cspan. They are the American Petroleum institutes vote for energy project, makers mark, and on to the substance of the day. Were calling this mornings session the road to the white house. Tonight donald trump accepts the republican nomination, and its on to the general election. Today were going talk about what the campaign will look like for here from here about the search for party unity, which as we know, took a hit last night on the floor. Well dive into what it means for trumps earth to rally the base and attract enough independent democrats to put him over the top. If you want to join the conversation on twitter, use the atlanticrnc. And cspan is here capturing the briefing. Lets get rolling and introduce our guests. We have john graybender a former aid on santorums two president ial campaigns. He has a Second Mission here in cleveland, which goes beyond politics. He hopes to get the band yes into the rock and roll hall of fame. Good luck. Sara fagan is now a partner with the Public Affairs firm ddc. Mike duehaim was director of the National Committee and held senior positions with george w. Bush, lead strategies for Chris Christies two gubernatorial campaigns and partner at mercury Public Affairs firm. Mike murphy the most recently ran the super pac for jeb bushs president ial campaign. Hes advised mitt romney, john mccain, and many others. Were going to be joined in progress by the former National Spokesperson for the ted cruz campaign. Hes a current msnbc analyst rick tyler. Hell come in in the middle. Here to lead the conversation is ron brownstein, and major garrett. Take it away. Good morning, everybody. Margaret, i mentioned that the official title is road to the white house but i call the event, which is my favorite, the Campaign Managers summit. We have some of the sharpest thinkers and strategists in the Republican Party, all though i would slightly amend john graybender. That the yes album cover deserves it no, its not marginal of the band. All right. Absolutely. Were in the mist of an extraordinary convention. Last night, sara, we saw something from ted cruz that we probably havent seen since Nelson Rockefeller in 1964 come on to the Convention Floor and very conspicuously anded ed not endorse the nominee. What are the implications for donald trump and ted cruz . The most significant moment of the convention so far and not mishandled. Not just by the Trump Campaign but also by ted cruzs handlers. Because the implications for trump, of course, that the Party Remains ununified. The one person perhaps most able to unify the party, the person becoming closest to being the nominee, besides donald trump, not only didnt endorse but said its okay not to vote for him. Thats a pretty bold move. It says to many conservatives, particularly christian conservatives, its okay for you to sit out and vote upanddown the ticket and leave the space blank. Whether he meant it or not, i think he probably did, that was the implications and thats how it was took. But in the president ial campaign, at this stage of a contest, there is no reason, in my view, they shouldnt have known exactly what ted cruz was going to say. And if cruz was going to say anything close to what he did say, he should have been speaking on monday night, not on wednesday night. He overshadowed mike pences speech because of this. He probably hurt himself, ted cruz, probably hurt himself at least in the short term and depending on the outcome of the election potentially fatally. You know, think about it. If donald trump end up losing this election by a few points, ted cruz is going to bear the brunt of that blame because of what happened last night. Mike murphy. I fundamentally agree with that. Think of it from the cruz point of view, though, to make the argument. I think theyre thinking were going to run in four years. Two, there are two possible donald trump outcomes. Trump wins and he governs either as a train wreck or a moderate. Neither of which we cruz people want to be linked to. We could wind up primary in four years. Second, he loses in a big pile of rubble. We dont want any connection to that. So i get the reasons for the cruz people, as the purity candidate. Thats his brand. Not to endorse trump. But actually going up there on wednesday night. How it got cleared, im with sara. There are procedures in a convention so it cant happen. And the Trump Campaign says early this morning they knew about it. They were being magnanimous. Whatever. It breaks the rules of trying to control anything at your convention, which conventions are about control. They go up there before pence on the second biggest night, unscrew your head, take out a lightbulb, and throw it between trumps eyes. Its unbelievable. It achetakes the strategy of be away from trump, and it creates a new debate of bad manners of selfishness, of show boating which even some pro cruz people are clearly repelled by. So i think he blew himself up. The only question if theres a complete trump disaster in november, will then in hindsight in the all new politics a year from now will the purity thing be able to a follow up. From the other side, though. What does it mean for trump . Well, its interesting. I was on the today show with manafort this morning and he was saying we knew but mr. Trump lets anybody speak. But it was unfortunate and kind of selfish. It was the only time ive seen the Trump Campaign work a sub text of being a victim. Because trump is so superman, bullet proof, never apologizes. So that was a bit of a switch up. I think there is a voter problem here. Trump need to get to 95 or 96 of the republicans, let alone everybody elsewhere he has trouble, to be competitive. Now hes in a bit of what ill call a dog whistle squeeze play. On one side you have the regular republicans. The jeb bushes, george w. Bushs, and the romneys. In a more polite way have taken a pass on trump. Now you have the christian conservatives who have the most ideological concern about trump. Because trump doesnt have a ideological history of any credibility in their party. Getting a dog whistle is okay not to be for trump. How he gets the republican number to 95 let alone the other numbers, i think it got harder. Short term, you know, maybe there is a sympathy bounce. Mike and jon, youve been in situations not like this, but youve had to negotiate something and build something good out of something that could be bad. I want to ask both of you. If you were in the middle of that, do you think there was a way to negotiate this to a better place . And strategically, how would you try to approach it . I wouldnt have let ted cruz speak. Especially even on monday night, maybe monday afternoon. Maybe not. I think not at all. If youre not going to endorse the nominee, this is the nominees convention. Thats how it works. You dont let him speak. Theres a couple of articles you didnt let ted cruz speak. Who cares. Were talking about ted cruz and not mike pence thats a huge thing. I think the way to negotiate is not negotiate it. If youre not going to endorse, youre not going to speak. Thats it. My big problem is its symptomatic its not under control. Even if they negotiated cruz was going to come out with a full endorsement. I wouldnt have done it before your Vice President pick who is an important speech for you that night. You know, on a regular world i would say, look, they should initiate the random drug testing because it happened. Its an absurdity that they allowed this to happen. My belief is in cruz world, theyve calculated they believe donald trump is probably not going to win. They believe its possible hes going to implode. I think they look at had this as the democrats did this going into iraq vote. Eventually were going to get to a point where its did you support donald trump and hold your nose as a conservative, or did you stand up for your principles . I think cruz is trying to look down the road and say i never did. I dont think its going to work. I think donald trump you could be a disaster. Trump could lose by 50 and the trump voters will blame ted cruz. It may have nothing to do with ted cruzs speech and theyll blame him forever. And ted cruz spent six months building donald trump up. I dont think i agree they thats what i think. I dont think. They have the tone of betrayal now which is unnecessary. It was a huge bet they made for kind of limited upside and huge potential downside. You know cruz, as his style, took it the most furthest to the mo confrontational. If you look at marco rubios speech, none said zero praising the character, fitness. John kasich isnt here. Jeb bush isnt here. Even scott walker was done with donald trump at the 53 mark of his speech last night. What is the impact of all of this . Were not hearing things we usually hear from party leaders. Chris christie was strong. Jeff sessions, newt gingrich, what impact does it have . I dont think it will have much impact on donald trump and his chances in november. Hes running uphill now even on his best day. Given the past gaffes and things hes said. I think the fact that the Republican Party apparatus doesnt embrace him has no bearing on the excitement around his candidacy and probably has some bearing on people showing up and knocking on doors and making phone calls. Hes not investing anyway. Hes clearly not building that infrastructure for his campaign. So i dont think, i mean, i was thinking about this earlier as we were, you know, weve spent a week talking about gaffe after gaffe after gaffe. This has been an embarrassing convention. Theres been a lot of problems with it. Im not sure at the end of the day when we leave this convention its going to have any impact on Donald Trumps numbers. If it does, itll be temporary at best. It will have an impact on cruzs numbers. I dont think it comes across looking principled. It would have been do what rubio and everybody else or dont come. He used the audience to his benefit. John kasich actually handled it the right way. I agree. And, you know, he didnt endorse him. Hes not coming to the convention to draw contrast to him. The Trump Campaign egged that on. Let me come at it at a different angle. Mike murphy, donald trump one of his biggest problems, if not the biggest, the consistent roughly 60 of the polls hes not qualified to be president. Abc asked it four times. The total variation between 58 and 60 saying no. You dont have this week and you dont have Going Forward these validating forces in the party saying yes, he is qualified. Is there a cost in simply, you know, the contrast between the way his family and friends have talked about him and the way the elected leaders have talked about him has been a cavernous in this week. Is there any implication for that . Yeah. I agree with sara that the idea of the establishment has not embraced him underwrites his normal appeal. It im the guy that is going to blow up the establishment, but all the political calculations being made by all these seasoned politicians have been around a lot of elections, this guy is a loser and this guy is anthrax. Thats a poll with consumers. Politicians act in their own interest. You can see how theyre reacting to trump. I believe the narrative of not ready for prime time is killing donald trump. What might be the biggest story isnt Ted Cruz Making the show boat move and employbut trump s taking the Nato Alliance as an suggestion. That could become an enormous issue. If they dont have a speech writer other than the team of xerox working on some strong nato language for the speech, even if he has to read it, theyre going to be in quick sand on that. That is enormous. That is bigger than jerry ford in poland. It is huge. Theyve got put it back in the bottle. I think the narrative that donald trump is playing with this whole thing rather than serious about it, and the lack of any policy depth in the campaign, i think its ultimately going to wipe him out. I think its a missed opportunity. You have a week of infomercials you could have. Its a missed opportunity to make his numbers better. His numbers, his favorable numbers are so bad, and granted, hers are awful, too. Its a race because both numbers are awful. It was an opportunity for his numbers to go up a little bit. I think its been missed. He can wipe it out if he kills it tonight. People have to realize tonight is what matters more than anything else. The first three nights are missed opportunity. But that could change it. Tonight, the speech, if youre a part of the team, what do you say to the candidate, the principles most important . Please read read the speech. Look, i think theres a lot of people out there that want to vote for donald trump but theyre scared to and they want reassurance. I think if he comes and thinks that this is about prosecuting Hillary Clinton tonight. Thats the wrong thing to do. I think christie did a good job. Rudy ghoiuliani did a good job. They heard the rhetoric from trump about the new america. People want to know what is that vision about . What is it going to look like and how were going to get there and get a Comfort Level that i like this guy, i respected this guy, and i can literally see him as president. Hes talking to a lot of moderate republican women. Hes talking to a lot of conservatives still. And hes talking to, you know, blue collar, middle income families who feel like theyve been left on the economic down field by both parties, and they want some hope there is going to be an american dream. Its inspirational i think its better. When is trump ever gotten in front of an adoring throng and not talked to the hall not to outside . Does anybody think hes going stay on the prompter for the whole speech the whole way . He should. Ill bet money he wont. I dont know if there will be a prompter. Thats another debate. Right. Mike, to your point, if you were this is a difficult question im antitrump. I know. What needs to be the take away as hes walking off stage tonight . The Trump Campaign said thats the thing we have to achieve and we nearly got there. In all literature, and politics is another form of story telling, theres a classic art, which as we meet the hero, the hero faces adversary, the hero overcomes it by changing it and growing. This is the first change and grow moment for donald trump. I think hes incapable. I think hes the atomic clock of one thing. Consent it to it. This is a speech he should stay on prompter, should be elegantly written, and doesnt need to be a grievance list. It needs to be what you get from trump and how trump has a vision to do the job not hes mad about mexican rapists and Hillary Clinton. He can solve the Hillary Clinton problems for free. Theyre built in. The question is, what is the trump . Most of all, what can he say to dramatically change the point of view minorities to an even more extent collegeeducated white women them of him. I think, also, one thing that, like, mike said he may be incapable of this, but there are a lot of people looking for a reason to vote for him. They do not like her. More importantly, they dont trust her. I think a little humility, a little i havent always lived my life like i was running for president , and i recognize that makes people uncomfortable. As your leader, you know, im going to be an ethical moral person. I wouldnt put it in those terms, exactly. But he should acknowledge that, you know, there are a lot of people who are uncomfortable with him. Theres increasing evidence that hes under performing in very red states. And thats not over policy. Thats over character and over a lot of christian conservatives, mormons in utah, and other Mountain West states who say i cant get over the braggadocios, i cant get over the multiple moral failures in his past life. I cant get past that. Hes also to give people a reason to say, okay, he recognizes that that is a problem for him and hes turning the corner and focussed on a they is going to honor and respect the oval office. What does trump have to achieve tonight . Well, i dont disagree with the premise. I think he needs to project himself in a contrasting way with her. I think he can talk about policy in a way he hasnt to this point. I agree, there are certain elements he has. I dont think he needs to talk about building a wall and everybody screaming who needs to pay for it. I think he needs to project an image of strength on places like Foreign Policy and show chomps on that that he hasnt to this point. And to be likable. I think we found it out in the primary, hes the most charismatic candidate out of the 17. There was a reason wwe hired him to be part of the show. He walks in the room and dominates the room. Hes very charismatic and likable and gregarious. If that can come across in a way that plays through the tv screen that will help. Right now the fundamental thing about winning election, somebody is to be likable and more likable than the other person. We havent had the lessers of the two likable people win since richard nixon. Let me follow up with that on ta taking on something each mike alluded to. What is the most meaningful measure of success for fthe wee. If the horse race tightens or the perceptions of trump change on favorability, on qualified to be president. 51 of College Whites in the abc Washington Post poll believe hes biesd against women and minorities. Is it more important for him to narrows the race by driving up Hillary Clintons negatives or is it going to be a lost opportunity if he cant change the perceptions about him . I think perceptions about him. I think the horse race numbers will change a little bit after the week and change again after the Democratic National convention and settle in as we get closer to labor day. If his numbers are in the 30s, hes not going to win. Right. You cant run he has to win florida, North Carolina, virginia, ohio and looking at a combination of other difficult states. I dont think it happens regardless of how bad her numbers are. Theyre better than his. I think those underlying numbers have to change a bit. Yeah, horse race numbers are misleading and premature. You only get a couple of big paint brush in a campaign to define who you have. He has to move his numbers. The voters that control the election, the 6 to 7 trump, for most of them, is not on their menu now to consider. Theyre mad at hillary. They go between undecided and hillary. They dont go to trump. Trump has to do something about his numbers. Ballot comes late when you need it. The numbers of what they perceive about you, they listen to you when you pitch later are everything. Thats what he could do at this speech, if he wasnt trump. I keep joking that its like being Charlie Mansons fox trot instructor. You think, hey, look at that. He can learn the fox trot and the next thing you know hes y trying to put a pen in your eye because hes charlie manson. Can trump do anything different in the most important speech hes given in his life. Sara, i want to ask you about how politicians and strategists deal with something theyre not expecting. I want to ask you what you think would be going on in Hillary Clintons campaign watching this convention, and do you think there will be any rearranging or adapting their convention to play off anything they saw or didnt see this week . Well, she has the same challenge that donald trump has. She has to improve her favorability numbers. I dont they will adapt. I think, you know, she has to put definition around who he is as a person. Remember, her numbers became were quite high when she was a senator. During most of her tenure as secretary of state. When shes a candidate they fall to the bottom. People remember the clinton scandals, the difficulty around all clinton politics. So shes been high before nationally. So it implies to me she can get some of this back move beyond the email scandal. I think youre going to see them really tell the story of Hillary Clinton humble beginnings, you know, shes a fighter, shes stuck in a very difficult situation personally, and triumphed but nothing in particular to take advantage of . I dont think they need to. I think trump is handing her her biggest political gift of her life this week. She should not win the election with her numbers. If any one of the individuals on the stage,less perhaps, ben carson, we would be having a different conversation about the race. Any one of them. Mike . I think hillary theres one nugget that is interesting. The evangelical world is changing and theres a growth and less politically evangelicals. Theres dog whistles they can blow. There are character concerns about trump. I think can help them. It will be interesting next week. Shell have bill clinton and barack obama speak for her. Theyll be phenomenal. Theyll be fantastic. Theyll tell her story better than shell be able to tell it herself. Theyll be well received and good speeches. Maybe better than anything weve seen here. Headline speeches. And shell go thursday night and theyll be like eh. Contrast between barack obama and bill clinton doing that, on the one hand, and him needing donald trump jr. To do it here. Other than Chris Christie there hasnt been its president bush xliii. He was not here. To mikes point, we could see her spend a little more time on her opponent than a typical nominee would spend on the acceptance speech. If he doesnt properly kick the nato issue down, not to mention other Foreign Policy gaffes hes made, you could see her spend a disproportional time on donald trump and his fitness for office. I think the speech she gave in california that defined him was the most effective speech she gave in the cycle. She started to bounce up again after the speech. So, you know, maybe to put a finer point on your question, garrett, she will spend more time on donald trump than perhaps she would. Their whole convention will be about making sure donald trump fails the Cocktail Party test. That is where collegeeducated, moderate, oftentimes republican women cannot go out with their friends and say, yes, im voting for donald trump. If you look they can win the counties of california, they can win in northern virginia. Thats thal have to do in some of the polices is to motivate some women that would have voted for romney to now vote for clinton and probably the ball game is over. Yeah. Hillary at her convention will make sure it doesnt happen. Shes got to make sure shes fine but shes going to make it that donald trump is toxic among that audience. Yeah. In fact, if you talk to priorities, usa and the segue to the second half our conversation, and thank you, if you talk to priorities usa they will acknowledge their principle goal at this point is exactly that. To have trump fail the Cocktail Party test with collegeeducated whites. They will say that by far the most effective ad has been the campaign has been the grace ad of the young parent, the parents of the young woman, the daughter with spine bifida and saying how shocked they were about trump mocking the disabled. When you look at the overall structure of the electorate, mike, what are the biggest hurdles trump has to get over . Let me quickly address the convention question. I think the clinton people thought it through but theyre looking after this nato thing, youre going to see a lot more National Security than you normally do in a democratic convention. Theres going to be a retired military flag officers. Think youll see skro kroft . In the campaign theres an opening on the other side you pore through it. You can see the choir yeah. I think well see more on the white wine attack. That will be a key part. The general election is simple. 30 of the vote will be votes that we republicans dont compete well with. Africanamericans, latinos, and mixed race. The young voters even larger in that percentage. Trumps theory im going max out the 70 caucasian vote up to the moon. But Bernie Sanders and others are not voting for trump. Particularly College Educated whooim white women, trump, by his natural style, repeatedly offends. Thats why i think you need to see the character of trump grow in this speech or hes going to get boxed in. Jon, you wrote yesterday trumps best path to victory. You didnt predict victory but this is the way he hed have to get it. First of all, we have to do a paradigm switch. This is donald trump. We have the fillers. Weve been trained to think this is how you win it. You build off what romney started and add places like colorado and virginia or other places where it was close and this stuff. I dont think trump can do well in some of those states. So the margin of error is so small for trump, first of all, you have to win pretty much every state romney won. You almost have to start there or youre already in trouble. Thats why we see the democrats play in places like North Carolina now. What trump is picking up is the sons and daughters of reagan democrats who are people who are yes, angry, feel mad at both parties, and like the fact that trump makes mistakes. It means hes authentic and going to change things. He has to give a Comfort Level to the romney voters. Thats where the real challenge of their Campaign Comes in. You have a lot of new jersey had a lot of white College Educated suburban voters. Is donald trump at risk of losing one of them for every son and daughter of a reagan democrat he wins . Yes. I mean, i think certainly the message hes put out thus far has made people uncomfortable. Its a great way to describe it. Its a discomfort with him in terms of his rhetoric and messaging. Theres a chance to pivot from that. I think some are lost forgood. I dont know forever. You look at the counties around philadelphia. If you lose the four counties and philadelphia by 400,000 votes. Its over. It doesnt matter what you do in the rest of the state. It doesnt matter. He needs to come back there. Im not sure how. He had the opportunity to be potentially the most centrist candidate weve had. A moderate republican from new york who said planned parenthood does some good things. Hes chosen not to do it. I think for him now i think the key for donald trump or what i would be looking at if i was on the inside of the trump operation is given where his numbers are, given where mrs. Clintons numbers are, given that neither are likely to change doctramatically in the n month, i might be trying to get gary johnson on the debate stage. I dont believe that donald trump can get to 50 of the vote in the country. He can get to 42 or 43 of the vote, and if there is a Movement Toward a third party candidate, albeit a former republican governor, one takes liberal positions on issues, that may be the best path for them to be successful. You think trump takes more time away from him on stage . Its a great question. If youre twrrying to win, you have to think outside the box. Bill clinton will tell you 43 works. Thats right. Let me talk to you about something i witnessed on the floor. I was in the ohio delegation and the pennsylvania delegation was right in front. These are two swing strait s s these are two swing straittates. We have an intimate story playing out about ohio. The pennsylvania delegations were going upanddown like piston rods. Applauding. Applauding. Everyone in the ohio delegation looked like their seats were equipped with seat belts. Dead flat when pence talked about his mom they applauded. His marine son, they applauded. Other than they were not there. I watched the dynamic between kasich and trump effect what were talking about in a swing state in the general election . I think it matters. It matters 0. On that front i would say all the pennsylvania delegates are trump people. I talked to pennsylvania people who have come to every convention for the last half dozen conventions. They dont know any of the delegates. Kasich won ohio. The kasich people and theyre playing it out. In a state like ohio where youre going to be its going to be close aand the appeals will be the same. Certainly having a back and forth in a negative way with a poplar incumbent governor of a state you need. The kasich team was not entirely help to feel romney. It didnt bubble over like this but they were not in sync with the romney organization. To have it bubble over is a mistake. Just like everything we talked about. The fact were talking about it problematic. Not being the sore winner is an important things. In politics its your job to unite the party. It wouldnt matter in another state. In ohio if youre going win its by one point. If he doesnt win ohio hes done. I agree but i think that narrative has more to do with the Cocktail Party, you know, hes being bad to kasich. A little dirty secret of the business is our entire republican primary election system is designed to make sure the delegates are not a very good microcausam of the voters in those states of the general election. So, you know, theres a little bit of a card trick with that. But the narrative media picks up the ohio delegates are offended does have resonance in kind of the Cocktail Party factor. Lets talk about the path. We talked about the electoral college. We try to put in a little mur structure terms. We have two groups of swing states, essentially. A rust belt swing states, ohio, iowa, michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, new hampshire. Theyre predominantly white and heavily blue collar. We have the sun belt for the swing states which yused to be more republican but become purple. Virginia, North Carolina, florida, and the southeast and colorado and the nevada in the southwest. Today trump is polling better, not surprisingly, in that rust belt set of swing states. When nbc did the swing states they had almost the same results. How would you assess his standings in each of those . Can he win the white house by running through the rust belt if he cant compete in the more diverse, younger, more College White sun belt . I dont believe he can. We havent won many of the states you mentioned, we havent won since 1988. I dont believe we have a candidate who is right now in the 30s and favorable ratings. As much as he does have an ability and there are issues around trade from the policy point of view, clearly some democrats are uncomfortable, as Bernie Sanders success in michigan showed. I dont believe we can lose states like florida and North Carolina and somehow turn around states we havent won since the 80s. Its been a long time. Weve come close. President bush xliii lost pennsylvania by two points. We have come close but we havent won. I dont think were going to shift them all at one time. Short of a third party candidacy. The thing the way your scenario plays out is you look at the millennials and theyre now larger than the baby boomers, and they are predominantly in those cities and on the coasts and not in the rust belt so, you know, theres most distrustful institutions. The least partisan, they dont like either party, and theyre more likely to go support a third party candidate. So that would be the only way, in any view, that could play it. The biggest potential national thing, i think, that could happen is a change in the turn out model. Weve had successive record turn outs since september 11th. First september 11th president bush was going on the air and president obama inspired people to vote. The numbers in both candidates, especially her numbers, could keep some democrat numbers down in a way that dont get picked up in the polling. For the first time this millennium, were going to see turn out go down from one president ial election to the next. That could have a way of changing things across the board. Theres a myth about mid western swing states. Wisconsin has been a republican dream for a long time. Occasionally we get lucky with a governor or senator. In president ial elections its been tough. In the home state of michigan its a long time. Part of the myth theres a big blue collar, white, archie bunker that trump is going to resonate with. You look at the Auto Industry now, its smaller, and the manufacturing is more hightech. So the kind of michigan stereo type of those reagan democrats those numbers have slunk. Even if you super perform there are more pharmaceutical Research Scientists in an arbor than machinists working for the tank plant, which actually closed. Yeah. I think we got to keep something in mind. Donald trump won the nomination. He kicked everybodys butts. These were very qualified, wellfunded people. To me that signals theres something going on out there. If he can turn it, actually, into a movement. He didnt win by hypnosis. People turned out and voted. As mike said he won all 67 counties in pennsylvania. So if he can catch some fire here where theres enough people who are frustrated, angered, we could see a turn out that is just completely different than weve seen before. There could be a closet vote for trump that is the going to show up on polls. The only way hes going to win is have a map that looks different. I personally believe without winning ohio, for sure, probably pennsylvania, and then probably florida. I think winning all of those western states is too big of a lift. And, frankly, if he is struggling with the red states like arizona and others, hes done anyhow, that means hes going to be struggling with the same type of voters in ohio and pennsylvania. I dont the problem with the primary now, i agree, he broke the mold with under 50 of the vote but in a multiwin election is every year the republican primary electorate becomes more different than the general election electorate. Its 28 million cranky old white guys like mike murphy. Not 128 people like millennials. So trump has to grow a little beyond his super power from the primary. President ial elections occurred an atmosphere, a collective mind set, sometimes. And outside events can shape what that collective mind set is and create a surprising result. Is there anything, lets say, on the issue of terrorism or security a great number of attacks or frequency. Its been a horrible month of june. Is there anything you think could affect the collective mind set of the country that is an external event e that could change the evaluations of the limitations that trump faces in this election . Ill take a quick crack. I was at a dinner i showed up late and i was next to this distinguished elder gentleman with a strange foreign accent saying what is a parisstyle attack eight days before the election in atlanta and chicago, illinois kills 100 americans. Couldnt that be the big maybe. You never know. You know, you cant predict that thing. Maybe they want steady. Maybe they want, you know, beat the hell out of them. Thats trump. But, you know, i think thats kind of a premature when i got done laughing. The guy was the head of the im not going to chicago or atlanta. You dont know. I think, you know, if you think about president ial campaigns here to now theyve been decided on attributes. Typically ultimately a person voters seem to care the most about them and people like them. But strong leader over the course of president ial Campaign History has also been a very strong its one that donald trump is winning now. You take that and you couple it with some interesting ways pollsters are now asking questions, which is, you know, in terms of these attributes, do you find in issues do you find this person, you know, acceptable, you know, is donald trump acceptable . Is Hillary Clinton acceptable . Is neither acceptable . Theres a large group of voters pushing 30 in most cases that say neither one of these candidates, you know, is qualified to serve as the president , is trust worthy on these issues. Pick it. Theres a huge block of them. A lot of them arent going to show up. But some of them are. They dont like either and think neither are qualified but theyre going to vote for somebody. The ones that show up, and in your scenario, i think they run to the strong leader. And, jon, to refine the question. You brought the Cocktail Party litmus test up. The security and concern crack through . I think it does. I think it probably favors trump in this way. I think that a lot of voters hes talking to feels like america is getting sand kicked in their face for the last eight years. I think theyre tired of it. I think they think weve lost respect. I want to go back to something mike murphy said. If there was one peter of advice or criticism i have with the Trump Campaign, im not sure they figured that out yet. Yeah, it feels like the primary is still going on in the convention now. Yeah. With all the messaging. Its worth noting in the primary trump won almost half of noncollege republicans. Even in the p lths bring in the audience for questions. Major and i will take it back for final thoughts. If you have a question, raise your hand. One in the back over here, if we can get to them. There we go. Identify yourself, please. Daniel freeman from the uk. Im from the uk. Obviously, the brexit vote threw the establishment quite dramatically. Is it a real protest that is happening in america that people are really looking at the establishment and saying they dont want the same old same old . I think were going to find that out. Certainly, the republican primary voters are spoken. Nothing that donald trump said that was offensive or outside the norm sub planted the major fact he was the only one that wasnt a politician. They wanted to throw him out. You know, interesting about brexit, i spoke to pollsters that worked on the race there who had said, you know, one of the things they found were people who hadnt voted in decades voted. So the vote wasnt part of the polling, but they looked at. Thats part of what was missed the influx of new voters. I dont know were going to see that this time. Its one thing that is out there as a factor. I have one point. One key difference is the electorate in britain was 90 white. If you look at the share of white voters in britain, that voted to leave, according to the lord ashcrofts polling. It was 53 . 53 responded to the message. If donald trump wins 53 of whites in the u. S. Hell lose by a landslide. If you look at the maps of who voted to remain from london going down, i guess, to the south. Kind of a white collar that is exactly thats northern virginia, the suburbs of denver, the suburbs of philadelphia. Thats the challenge. I think its the same challenge. Probably the same coalitions, just they exist in different proportions in the u. S. Than in the uk, which is, you know, a much more yeah. Were more structurally locked in vote. Theres the same hunger to punish the establishment. Its what we call a wrong track election. People want new. Thats why you hear the Trump Campaign finely and inappropriately talk about change. Its not as clean. We dont have to deal with the french on a daily basis. There you go. [ inaudible question ] weve heard it from a few strategists talking about the videos played. Some folks said there hasnt been the traditional bio videos that get the crowd pumped up and folks at home get to see. We saw a few of those last night. I was wondering for you can weigh in. Its supposed to be ma madefortelevision convention. Are you surprised there hasnt been better videos seen at the convention . I dont think the infrastructure exists dont thi infrastructure exists in this operation to think about those that takes a long time to put Something Like that together. And it requires usually a team of very talented people. Theyre theyre still theyre catching their breath every single day. Theyre still sprinting from the primary. I think that was not intentional, its just they never got around to it, i suspect. Youll see a lot of that at the democratic convention. Theyre going to have the most beautiful produced tenminute in infomercial on Hillary Clintons life. In a national, a general election campaign, it is an e mo enormous business. Your job is just run that phone bank. Dont worry about anything else. Right now, theyre spread too thin. Id even say this. Ive done a lot of those videos and i thought sometimes they were brilliant and they meant nothing. Theres only a few events thats a pretty big statement from an ad guy. I think your videos are great. Nobodys talking about those the next morning and thats what this all comes down to. Let me echo that as another ad guy, i agree. There was an opportunity to do more digital streaming. I would have had a gopro came backstage. What could go wrong . There could have been more were in a culturture now of unfiltered reality media. I think they could have fed that more. My guess is the dems will and be good at it. David paul, huffington post. I was curious watching the trump boys speeches. The second one was the speech that actually reflected what his father said. If given by his father as his acceptance speech i think would take him a long way towards changing the shift of people who might consider voting for him. Theres an odd aspect reflected in the notion that if theres a terrorist attack, people flock to strength. He has said so many things from paying down the National Debt in eight years to rebuilding the space program, to Everything Else thats come along the way, the best schools, the best infrastructure and all of this, yet there is never a question of how is this more than just words. Because Bernie Sanders proposes a 57 billion entitlement and everybody wants to know how hes going to pay for it. The total cost of what trump has proposed is probably in the range of 40 trillion. Are at least kind of questions he might face in the debate . I think so. People flock to strength, but they also run from fear as Barry Goldwater would tell you. The Clinton Campaign will spend lot of time turning trumps strength into risk. Whether they succeed or not will be a huge driver. Those questions are out there, theyre real. Voters sometimes we dont give voters enough credit. Voters are pretty smart and Pay Attention to this. Theres just so many other questions. One thing about trump, he throws a lot of chum in the water. Reporters probably writing his speechers, then it changes foyer or five times throughout. I think theres so much out there and i think thats intentional by them as well. Lets do one more and take it back for final question each. My names colin. Im a student at the university of akron. I want to hit the fast forward button real quick and move to 2020. Ted cruz. Why not . Say hillary wins with 95 of the africanamerican vote and over 75 of the hispanic vote, what does the gop do to kind of recognize these trends and adapt their platform and their kind of game plan moving forward . What can they do . In my opinion, its up to our elected leaders. You cant fix these during campaigns. You fix this when governors and senators and mayors go into africanamerican communities, go into hispanic communities and see if they can get 15 of the vote next time. People dont vote for the party, they vote for individuals. Until we have individuals that try to win in those areas, we will lose nationally. And the primary system, by the way, as mike said before, caters to a different group. We have to have people who can come through the primary system and have done it. But it has to be individuals. Our incentives in the party are to do the exact wrong thing in demography. Because its very hard to get a party to act in a longterm right interest when the shortterm incentives are to do the opposite. Im for super delegates. I want less primaries, more smart people picking the damn nominees so we win. And then for super delegates, i think we could very well had the ultimate Political Science experiment this year. Bernie sanders versus donald trump. And second, i fear that when it came down to just cruz, and im not a cruz fan. I was for cruz. I wanted to have the cruz science experiment as nominee rather than trump. Now what we could very well have is we can argue the trump case, if we lose, we might wind up, though im less certain of this arguing the cruz argument again. In closed primaries in 2020. Parties tend to close in which is exactly the opposite. You want to know about a party, look at the organic media that the primary voters gravitate to. With the democrats its inner web. With us, its am radio which isnt going to be around in five years. Weve got to break that cycle. That sets up the final question i wanted to ask which is, you know, you talked about the possibility that trump he could get a surge of new voters. He could max out on white voters. Given the underlying demography in the party, is his path a long term one and is it a greater risk if he loses or if he wins and tries to implement the agenda that he ran on. What would you worry about more for the long term and the future of the party . Its a great question. I think its one many republicans are struggling with. On the one hand, he is our nominee and we dont want Hillary Clinton. If you believe its a binary choice, that means you need to support donald trump. On the other hand, as you point out, whats worse . Do you go in for the minor medical procedure right now and suffer a week of discomfort or do you let the cancer grow for 25 years. I think that is the choice most republicans face. Unless he dramatically changes the trajectory of his commentary and the way hes run his campaign. My bigger fear is the brand of the Republican Party is that we follow the same model we used to. We assume 18 to 21yearolds pretty much arent going to show up and vote. All that is changed because of the way news is distributed. By the time theyre 16, theyre actually relatively political li lisavy. By the time theyre 18, their brand is set of who we are, who we arent. If were going to grow as a party, we better start thinking about how were going to talk to younger voters. We take terrible lessons from off year elections. Look at wisconsin, we got a senator, a governor, both houses of legislature, and then thats not going to happen in the general election in a president ial year. We take bad lessons from those and pat ourselves on the back too much for those. We have to change as a party longterm. The rnc chairman has said this party is well organized to win off year elections, poorly organized to win elections. Its up to Republican Leaders to deal with the smoldering ruins, how many will be left. I think were i think theres a really good chance of losing the senate no matter who the nominee was. We won this senate in 2010 essentially. Those are difficult at best no matter who the republican nominee is at president ial year. Well have a lot of governors left. It will be okay. We have to look forward to the next generation. Im for trump i think trumps going to lose and im okay with that. Smoldering ruins, then we build a new competitive republican modern party that weve needed for a decade. How many are left to do that . The best thing and the worst thing that happened to the toyota motor factories was world war ii. That may be where we are. To your down ballot question, i agree. One thing thats kind of interesting. We got vulnerable guys in democratic seats in the president ial year. That is as bad as it can get. But trump is such an outlier. Theyve got a little more moving room. Im involved in an ie in illinois where mark kirks got a very tough race. Hes doing okay right now. Portman here in ohio. Theyre all tough races. If you look at history, theyre supposed to lose, but theyre showing a little more life. The fact that theyre allowed to be distant from trump i said reasons take bad lessons from off year elections. Democrats take bad lessons f
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