Disunited and unsuccessful at home be any better abroad . Can an administration which is filled with quarrelling and backbiting where we can see it be any better abroad where we cannot see it . These things we pledge to you, an administration in which you will not have to support three men to do one mans job. [ cheers applause ] an administration which will route out waste and bring order out of present chaos. An administration which will give the people of this country value received for the taxes they all pay. And so dewy on the campaign trail in late 1944. Ultimately we know the outcome of this, and that is this is going to be another roosevelt victory. Let me say this before we head out. There are really three reasons for this change in tone. You can go back and look at it in more detail later. No real specific thing you need to be aware of as far as numbers here. You see a number of them on the screen. One of the things that made this so intense in the end is there was a perceived closeness in the race in national polls. You can see on the screen its very tight in these national polls, 51 to 49, in september dewy was two points ahead of roosevelt, 51 to 49. And fortune poll in july indicated that the war was over, dewy would win big. The second reason was the feisty temperaments of the Vice President ial candidates. They were picked, i think, to rally the respective bases and they did a good job of that. Truman was not a great orator but he would be quite fiery. Bricker was much more eloquent and more sensational than truman, traveling over 15,000 miles that fall and delivering over 200 speeches, most of them scathing indictments of the deal. And then finally roosevelt and dewey just didnt like each other. Sometimes you have campaigns where the candidates just dont like each other. And one friend of roosevelts later recalled, you know, roosevelt respected landon. He got along with wilkie and really liked him. But that tom dewy he really hates, it showed. Roosevelt will campaign late in the season making a Campaign Swing through a number of big cities, including chicago and boston. And on election day its a close race but ultimately another roosevelt victory. 53 to 46 . Now while this looks pretty overwhelming for roosevelt, actually in some of these states where roosevelt wins, the margin of victory for him is very small. This is actually the closest race since 1916 when Charles Evans hughes narrowly lost to Woodrow Wilson. Indeed 500,000 vote switch in the right states would have meant a dewy win in the Electoral College. Thats a relatively small window of victory for roosevelt. Still a pretty big win. Any questions or concerns . All right. When we come back on friday well continue our look at world war ii taking a look at combat pragss in the european theater. Have a good day. See you on friday. You are dismissed. Tomorrow night American History tv focuses on the president ial campaign of adlai stevenson. We begin with the contenders. Thats follows by stevensons acceptance speech and a discussion on the election of 1952. American history tv prime time starts at 8 00 eastern each night this week. Up next, davis pietrusza discusses his book. The author describes Harry Trumans career, the 1948 president ial election and main players in the campaign. This was recorded at the live ton park halfmoon public library. It is about an hour, ten minutes. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the clifton parkhalfmoon public library. We are very pleased to have David Pietrusza with us this morning to talk about his latest book, 1948 Harry Trumans improbable victory and the year that transformed america. David is the author of a number of books. Hes been here to talk in the past about his book about arnold rothstein, about the book of 1920, the year of six president s, 1960, lbj versus jfk versus nixon, silent pals almanac, the homespun wit of virginias Calvin Coolidge and ted williams my life in pictures. Hes also written and produced a documentary local heroes baseball in Capital District diamonds. Reviews for his harry truman book talk about how lively it is, illuminating portraits of four candidates and the evenhanded appraisal of truman is especially compelling. The journey that he takes to get us to election day is one that he has definitively become the best at leading. In the past, his work has been compared to theodore whites classic the making of the president s series. After three straight home runs, i think pietrusza is the undisputed champion of chronicling americans president ial campaigns. He holds a degree from the university of albany and has served on city council in amsterdam, new york, and is the recipient of the 2011 excellence in letters and arts award of the Alumni Association at the university at albany. In addition to doing president ial biographies and elections, he is also a member of sabra, the baseball historian organization. He is a caseywinning judge and jury and an edgar Award Finalist for his book on arnold rothstein. Ladies and gentlemen, David Pietrusza. [ applause ] thank you, natalie, and its great to be back here again. And the question that people always ask me about my books is, why did you write this book . And americans claim to hate politics, but we love elections, we love sports. My sports background, your sports background, the whole countrys crazy about it. We love the competition. We love the 162game series and things going down to the seventh game of the world series. We love mazeroski hitting the home run and we love bill buckner and mookie wilson. And 1948 is one of those mazeroski, mookie, bill buckner elections. This is when the underdog comes back and pulls it out when everyone has written them off. Thats Harry Trumans improbable victory. Thats the year that was. Thats the election that was the great, iconic comeback, the great surprise, the great surprise when the pundits are proven so spectacularly wrong. Thats another thing we love. We love to be smarter than all the guys on tv and writing the newspaper columns. And harry truman, who was just an ordinary harry, the only president of the 20th century who doesnt go on to college. Hes a High School Graduate not the only once since. Not the last one. The only one of the 20th century. You have to go back to andrew johnson, to Abraham Lincoln to find such a common man. And not just a common man, but a fellow whos been a failure at business. His famous shop in Downtown Kansas City that goes bust and hes left to pay off those debts for 20 years, and he pays them all off. He wont declare bankruptcy. He has a standard of honor. And he will pay all his debts. He also has a standard of honor which marks him in his earlier political career where he is the product and he is known for really most of his active political career as being the product of one of americas most spectacularly corrupt political machines. This is something that, like al smith in 1928 is never really able to transcend. Hes a product of tamny, and he gets whooped by Herbert Hoover for that and a number of other reasons. Harry truman is the product of this prendergast machine in kansas city. Hes the head of the county government for them. They steal millions and millions of dollars. Harry truman never takes a dime. He has to kind of wink at what goes on in some cases. He those get things done. He would sit down. He would sit down and pour out his soul to private letters, which he never sent to anyone. Hed hole up in this hotel and write these letters, which were found decades after his death, as he would wrestle with these questions am i a Public Servant or am i a crook . Am i doing the right thing . Hes conflicted by this, but he stays in this machine and he eventually determines to get out of local government. He wants to be a congressman. But hes such a puppet, such a nobody, even at that time, that its like, no, harry, you cant be a congressman. Can i be a governor . No, you cant be governor. When the machine cant find anybody to run for United States senate in 1934 okay. We now return to our regularly scheduled programming. So, the machine cant find anyone to run for senate, United States senate in 1934. Youd think they could. Its going to be a big democratic year. Harry pulls it off, but he goes into the senate, again, hes like a nobody. A nobody. And then disaster strikes. 1939, boss pendergast on good friday goes to the federal pen for corruption, and people say, well, thats the end of harry truman now. Whos going to want him . Whos going to want this pendergast puppet still to remain in the United States senate . His mentor is finished and so is he. He faces a threeway primary and wins. He goes to all the small towns and courthouses and masonic temples and every other place he knows in missouri and wows them, pulls it off. And thats a valuable lesson when it comes to 1948 and the Democratic Party is split once again. But hes still, hes back in the senate, but who is he . Hes given an assignment. Look into all these military bases, defense contracting things were doing to win the war against hitler and tojo. Are we getting the bang for the buck . Are we spending our money wisely . Harry truman goes around, gets in his car, had really no staff, no expense, delivers a remarkable report that, no, were not. Were wasting a hell of a lot of money while our boys are fighting and dying in europe, in north africa and in the south pacific. And we have got to stop it, and heres how. And people say, gee whiz, he did that intelligently, honestly in a nonpartisan manner. Maybe theres something to this harry truman guy. Which takes us to 1944. Franklin roosevelt is looking for a fourth term. The wars still on. And in 1940, he had dumped his Vice President , john nance garner, who had grown a bit too conservative for the new deal. And he puts in henry a. Wallace, his secretary of the agriculture, who is a very leftwing, kind of newage kind of guy for back then. And he forces wallace on the ticket in 1940. The Democratic Party does not really want him. And in 1944, roosevelt is getting the word back you keep this guy on the ticket, he could cost you a million votes. Roosevelts a great politician. He knows what this means. And he says, ive forced Henry Wallace on the party once. I cant do it twice. I cant do it twice. Hes got to go. Not in so many words, not so many words, but he eventually slits wallaces throat. So, who did he replace him with . The guy you replace him with is a guy whos not too southern, not too northern, not too conservative, not too liberal. Respected by the unions but not really in the pocket of the unions. And thats harry truman. He fits in all the slots. They put him on the ticket in 1944, and by april 1945 Franklin Roosevelt is dead. And harry truman goes to the white house and says to eleanor roosevelt, can i pray for you . And she says, no, we need to pray for you because you are the fellow who is in trouble now. He starts off very popular. The war is won. The atomic bombs are dropped on japan. There is vj day. Americas at peace, finally. And harry truman reaches a popularity level of 87 . Sic transit gloria mundi, that goes downhill real fast. And people, some of that is beyond his control, but there are reasons why his popularity drops. He is not Franklin Roosevelt. Right now, all the republicans are saying, who is the next reagan . Boy, we miss reagan a lot. And back then, it was, by god, by god how we miss fdr among the democrats. And harry truman was no fdr. So, there is a longing for the lost leader there. And also, hes prone to certain gaffes. His appointments are not always the strongest. There was a talk of the gang, as there was an ohio gang, as people who are hangerson, smalltimers who are put into positions way above their abilities. You see the old new dealers being shoved out of the cabinet, not just Henry Wallace, who is fired by harry truman for being a prostalinist, really, giving speeches against the truman foreign policy, but you also have where with harry truman, the country turns against the party and the leader, which brings us into war. If you dont believe me, ask either bush, ask lyndon johnson, Woodrow Wilson after world war i, what happens to the Democratic Party. What happens to Winston Churchill . A pretty good war leader in 1945. Hes out the door. So, this is a normal thing. The readjustment means a lot of things get thrown out, including parties in power. Republicans take the house and the senate in 1946. Theyre on a roll. Harry truman keeps going up and down in the popularity. By the spring of 1948, hes down in the low 30s in terms of popularity. And its not only a republicandemocrat thing going on here. The Democratic Party is splitting three ways, not just two ways, not just youve got some sort of, oh, carter Teddy Kennedy thing going on, not a George Bush Pat Buchanan thing going on, but its being split, the left, the center and the right. On the right, you have the southern segregationist democrats. Franklin roosevelt had talked a good game with black civil rights, but he really hadnt done anything. Remember that the army, the navy in world war ii are still segregated. Theres no move to desegregate anything in the country. Harry truman proposes a big Civil Rights Program at the beginning of 1948. The southern democrats are simply aghast by this. And beyond that, they feel personally betrayed, because they had thought of harry truman as one of their own. His mother had been in an internment camp run by the union during the civil war. Confederate sympathizers. And if you look at harrys statements and you look at his private correspondence, he is not exactly a bleeding heart liberal on the topic. But he puts this forward, and the southerners are aghast. They Start Talking about a strategy in which they will punish harry truman, they will punish the Democratic Party. They will make the Democratic Party come to its senses on civil rights and states rights and all of these things, and they will do this by putting the election into the Electoral College and brokering a deal. And one of the people involved in that is a young man, a young governor of South Carolina named Jay Strom Thurmond, a decorated war veteran, former judge, and considered at the time to be kind of a progressive liberal new deal kind of democrat, the new face of the south. Except that once he gets caught up in this, when the South Carolina legislators and such Start Talking against the truman Civil Rights Program, he joins with the dixiecrats largely centered in mississippi and alabama in going to these regional meetings to say what can we do about harry truman. Now, the irony of this, and the irony of this when thurmond starts being carried away by this, talking about how the federal governments bayonets will not force black people into our swimming pools, into our homes, into our schools, is the irony is that Jay Strom Thurmond has a black, illegitimate daughter. Thats one wing of the Democratic Party in 1948. The other wing, which seems actually to be more troublesome to harry truman, is the Henry Wallace wing. And that is the extreme left wing of the Democratic Party, beyond the new dealers, beyond the eleanor roosevelts, beyond the Hubert Humphreys, which is in many cases communist dominated, communist party United States of america. Not just left wing, not just radical, whatever, but actual party members. And as Wallace Wallace has a problem in that hes been cast aside not once, but twice, and both times involving harry truman. You would not be human unless you were bitter about this. And you had this bitter former Vice President of the United States with leftwing proclivities anyway, and now hes got two reasons, two reasons to be against harry truman personally, and he is talked into not a primary challenge against truman but a thirdparty challenge. Whats their strategy . Again, whats their strategy . Since the strategy is being dictated from the extreme left wingers, from the people being controlled by really moscow when you get down to it, its got to be that theyre, again, trying to not win an election but to send the message to truman and say, look, you change your foreign policy, Democratic Party, you change your foreign policy, harry truman, because we will punish you and we will give the election to the republicans. And then we will go back to the way it was under Franklin Roosevelt, with a guy we can deal with. In 1944, the communist party of the United States had actually endorsed Franklin Roosevelt, did not run a candidate. It was kind of one, big, happy family at one point. So, truman is being squeezed on the left and on the right. Hes in trouble. And how can he hold together a coalition which will have enough electoral votes to win if the south is going to be stolen away from him by the dixiecrats, and where does Henry Wallace hold his strength . Not all over the country, but in big states like new york, in new york city, in southern california, in illinois, where he can be the balance of power in those states and tip states which a democrat should win into the republican column. So, the republican column. Whos the republican going to be . Same answer at some point as we have now, looking forward to 2012, a very crowded, confused field. Typical. Typical when you have a president who an incumbent who is vulnerable. When the opportunity is there, then a lot of opposition candidates come out. And the four frontrunners that year, governor thomas e. Dewey of New York New York is the big kahuna 45 electoral votes. You take that, youve got a big leg up on the presidency. Harold e. Stassen, former governor of minnesota, now a punch line in american political history because he ran and lost so many times and ran and lost so many times with absolutely no chance of success. Robert a. Taft, senator from ohio, leader of the Congressional Republicans de facto. Mr. Republican, mr. Conservative, but as they say, dull as paint, not charismatic. And the fourth is not even in the country. General of the army, douglas macarthur, in tokyo running the former or i guess still present empire of japan and a popular guy. But can he pull it off from far away . He doesnt. Hes entered in the wisconsin primary. He should win that. He doesnt. He stumbled. Hes out pretty quickly. There arent a lot of primaries that year. Theres a New Hampshire primary. Theres always the New Hampshire primary. There is the wisconsin primary which macarthur should win and doesnt. He loses it to harold stacin, which elevates stacin. He is an outsider, hes a boy wonder. In 1938, he had been elected governor of minnesota. He was the youngest governor of any state ever. Then he quits, hes reelected saying, if you reelect me, im going to quit and go into the navy. And hes so popular, he still gets elected. Imagine being elected with a platform like that. He comes out, hes an internationalist. Youve got the debates still going on of internationalism versus isolationist. Stassen is on the extreme end of the republican internationally brigade at that point and is an outsider. He wins in wisconsin, he wins in nebraska, and hes poised to take the frontrunner status away from thomas e. Dewey as the campaign heads into oregon. Now again, notice ive only named four states. These are about the only four important primaries there are. Most of these things are still being done in party conventions, which means in the back room, either in places like albany or columbus or wherever, or when you get to the convention. Now, oregon is where we see something happening which is being repeated again this year debates. Were debating, were debating, were debating. And you see Newt Gingrich at every stop saying i want a lincoln douglasstyle debate on one topic, just me and this other guy in the room, and it doesnt matter who the guy is or who the gal is or what the topic is. Hes calling for that sort of debate. Well, he should be calling on historically, because hes a great historian, is a Stassen Dewey model debate. Because the Stassen Dewey debate is the first broadcast debate in president ial history. Its held in a Radio Station in portland, oregon, and it is held on one topic. Two guys in the room in the iron cage on the topic, should the communist party of the United States of america be outlawed . Harold stassen, the great liberal, in the affirmative in the affirmative. Tom dewey tom dewey in the negative. Now, we havent talked much about thomas dewey. Dewey was the governor of new york, pretty popular guy. He had been the nominee of the Republican Party in 1944. He had led on the first three ballots in 1940 before losing to wendell willkie. Quite remarkable, because this year, 1948, hes only 46 years old. Now, thats about the age that obama was. Thats only three years older than jack kennedy was. Hes a young man. And hes been on the verge of power and National Notoriety even before that 1940. What is he in 1940 . Hes an exDistrict Attorney. Hes not even governor. He was the District Attorney of manhattan. He was mr. District attorney, crimebuster, the guy who went after the mob, put them in jail, went after the wall street guys, put them in jail. He did it all. He was spectacular as a District Attorney. But as governor, he begins to trim his sails. Hes looking at the polls, and as a candidate, its the same way. So, people, even though hes the purported frontrunner and hes the frontrunner in terms of delegates at this point, hes not particularly loved in the party or among the population. But in this debate, he is the former District Attorney. Hes a great prosecutor. Hes great with a jury. Stassen was a prosecutor, too. But evidently, the prosecutors in manhattan have to be tougher than the prosecutors in minnesota. And dewey cleans his clock. Stassen is essentially left bleeding on the floor after that primary. Dewey wins it, but he still could be stopped. He could still be stopped at the convention because, because he doesnt have the votes, he doesnt have the love, but he knows how to make deals. And he makes a deal with the governor of pennsylvania to push him over the top, and he wins the nomination. At that point, hes faced with a choice who do i make my Vice President ial candidate . Its a guy he wanted to put on the ticket four years before and one of these guys youve heard of, earl warren, governor of california. And this is another one of these cases where we look at theres this big, liberal wing of the Republican Party then. Dewey, stassen, warren. Warren may be the most liberal of all of them. Warren didnt want to do it in 1944, didnt want to do it in 48, but hes thinking if i keep turning these people down, theyre not going to ask me to the dance. If i want anything ever again, um, this could be it. So, id better take it. So, with great reluctance, it becomes the dewey warren ticket, which people think is just great its great its a fairly young ticket. Its progressive, its forward thinking, its got geographic balance, its got new york, its got california. Wow what a great ticket. And the democrats have got harry truman. Maybe not. Earlier in the year, the republicans were looking at a guy named dwight david eisenhower, the grassroots wanted ike. They liked ike. Everybody likes ike. They dont know what he is. Is he a republican . Is he a democrat . Hes a general. Thats good enough. Sort of like some big political version of white christmas, okay . Everyone loves a general. And they love him. He turns the republicans down. Democrats, things aint Getting Better for harry truman. The convention is going into philadelphia. Just about everyone has their convention in philadelphia that year, the republicans, the democrats, the progressives. Lets go with ike. Lets go with ike. And this amazing, incoherent coalition of democrats forms, united by one thing, staying in power. Southern segregationists like Richard Russell and strom thurmond, northern liberals like Hubert Humphrey, big city bosses of chicago, jersey city, members of franklin d. Roosevelts family, all of them come together and they want ike. They want to stampede the convention for ike. Ike finally draws back and says no at the last minute. Otherwise, it could have been eisenhower as the nominee and even as the president beating dewey, but he says no. Its not his year yet. He does become president that year, of columbia university. Four years more for the presidency. So, truman, truman its so bad. Its so bad at that convention. He gets on the phone and hes calling william o. Douglas, the Supreme Court justice will you be my Vice President . Why him . Because william o. Douglas is a guy whos respected by the old new dealers. He has to get back in good graces with that wing of the party. Hes got to cement that tie to the new deal. And william o. Douglas supposedly says, i will not be a number two man to a number two man and turns him down. So, he takes Alben Barkley, this democratic leader of the senate, and youve got a ticket which is bartleys a pretty good speaker and hes kind of well liked. Hes older than harry truman and harry truman is not a young man. They both come from border states. It doesnt look like much of a ticket, doesnt look like much of a ticket. But harry truman goes to the convention, he waits for hours to give his speech. He doesnt give it until like 1 00 in the morning. And the convention has just been all roiled up with everything. Hubert humphrey had gone to the floor and forced a floor fight on the civil rights plank. The southern democrats were mad enough going into this convention. Then Hubert Humphrey says, our plank on civil rights is not as strong as the republicans its the same mush that we were pedalling in 1944. No, we need to move out of the shadow of states rights into the Bright Sunlight of civil rights. And he forces a floor fight onto the floor of the convention, first one since prohibition, and he wins. He wins and the southern democrats, some of them, anyway, walk out. They walk out. The convention is just dragging into chaos. Then when they announce harry truman is coming to the hall at 1 00 a. M. , past any media notice that you could get, they unleash this, they open up this big floral display of the liberty bell because theyre in philadelphia, and they fly out the doves of peace, which are all pigeons, actually, and theyve been couped up for hours now and they see all the lights and the noise and the bands, and they just go crazy and theyre attacking things and flying into electric fans and landing on sam rayburns head, and theyre doing things pigeons do. And harry truman has worn a white suit. Well, thats probably the low point. Harry truman starts off kind of slow, and he kind of has to point to Alben Barkley to get some applause lines and then he gets into what hes going to do. And im going to challenge the Republican Party and the donothing congress to come back in a special session and turn a day and pass a program for the american people, and the crowd goes wild and people say, wow, this could be a horse race. Maybe theres something going on here. But when harry truman goes to detroit to start his campaign on labor day, as democrats traditionally do, he hasnt got enough money to get the train out of the station, and they have to make some frantic calls to do that. Its still very dicey for him. The progressives under Henry Wallace come into philadelphia next. They have their convention. Its very interesting. You see the people who show up and we hear these names later on. Pete seeger is providing the music. Paul robeson is providing the music. Youve got a couple of delegates there who become United States senators, one of which is george mcgovern. And they kind of go off on to their own, but their campaign is downward, downward, downward with the progressives. The dixiecrats meet again. They nominate strom thurmond. All the while, things are going on in the world and in the country. As the conventions are meeting, country joe stalin decides to block berlin. So, what do you do . Start a world war . Do you send the convoys in or do you do an airlift . Do you figure out how to do an airlift to supply the people of west berlin before they riot and demand communism . And america figures out how to do that. And thats one of the things going on. Youve got the return of the peacetime draft. Now, world war ii, there was a segregated army. The blacks are saying, okay, we put up with that during the war. Were not putting up with that again. And a. Philip randolph says to harry truman, you do this again, im going to have a march on washington before Martin Luther king, march on washington. And you know, weve taken polls, 30 of our youth will not register for the draft if you have a segregated army and navy. This is when truman with his back to the wall in the middle of the election, knowing that the dixiecrats have already gone about as far as they can and not sure where the black vote in the north will go, this is when he makes his decision to desegregate the armed services. This happens right in the middle of this. In the spring actually, in february, in february theres a special election in new york. Theres always a special election in new york for congress. I mean, it just every week we have a special election. And this one was in the bronx. Pretty safe democratic seat. And what happens is the republicans dont win, but a Henry Wallace supporter wins and sends shock waves through Democratic Party. Its like, whoa, this movement may have legs. And this is in a fairly heavily jewish area, okay . Wallace had been taunting truman as being insufficiently pro israel. All the candidates are pretty much pro israel. Dewey, taft, all of these guys, truman. But truman has been having problems with the jewish community. They dont think he is sufficiently pro israel. And what he does is 13 minutes after the state of israels independence or statehood is proclaimed, he is the first chief of state, we are the first country to recognize israel. And this helps solve some of his problems on the left with the wallace vote, but its very chilling to see, chilling to read, i think in the New York Times that day or the next day, that out of egypt, out of cairo, Muslim Leaders are talking about a jihad against the United States of america. Many things are part of that year which continue for a long time afterwards and into today. As the election goes on, we also see, now, harry truman has this turnofday special session of the legislature, and the law of unintended consequences. He brings congress back in. Congress doesnt want to come back in the middle of an election, but they come in and they hold some hearings on communists, communists in government. They take some testimony. And what this leads to is a guy named whitaker chambers going before the House American Activities Committee and saying that alger hiss is a member of the communist party, former secretary of state, undersecretary of state. And this is the beginning of the mccarthy era, communist in government issue. Its also the beginning of Richard Nixons political career, because hes one of the few people who when this starts to happen says i smell a rat. I smell a rat. I do not believe hiss. They go after hiss and finally get him. But this is, again, one of the things which differentiates 1948 as starting so many Different Things. The campaigns start. In the spring, harry truman had made an interesting discovery. Well, he kind of knew. Part of it was something he knew. He knew he was really bad giving a speech off a script. I mean, really bad. He wasnt just Franklin Roosevelt. He was bad. When he was in the senate, he probably only gave like three speeches or something his whole career. Could not he had very bad eyesight. And he had trouble reading from a piece of paper and just giving a speech like this. But he talks to a bunch of newspaper editors in the white house and he just speaks off first he gives his speech and people go, is the bar still open . You know. And then he speaks off the cuff, and even people who dont like him go, hey, that was pretty good. I kind of like that guy. Hes got something. And everybody notices this. This is one of these great moments where the light bulb goes on, and then he does it again. He does it again, actually, when he speaks right after recognizing israel. He goes to a jewish group in washington and he does the same thing and he wows them. He says, boy, ive got to keep doing this. Ive got to keep doing this because i stink doing it otherwise. And he does. And he goes across the country in the spring on his first whistlestop campaign. At first theres a lot of gaffes. Theres a lot of mistakes, theres a lot of errors. And then he kind of gets his stride by the time he gets to california, and then he does it again after labor day. Now, dewey does the same thing. He has one of these whistlestop tours as well, but dewey is not as lively, not as spontaneous. Tom dewey had originally not wanted to be president or governor or an attorney. He wanted to be a singer he wanted to be a performer. Harry truman we remember as the piano player. Tom dewey was trained to be a concert vocalist. His wife had appeared on broadway, okay . These were showbiz people, so he knew how to present himself. He was really good, but he was too slick and it didnt come across well and his content was too much of mush. Harry truman is rocking and socking, and as he leaves washington on his fall whistlestop tour, somebody says, give em hell, harry and he says, yeah, i will. And he does. And he used to say, well, i just tell them the truth and they think its hell. But he in many cases, hes very rough. Hes very rough. And his speech in chicago, for example, he pretty much accuses tom dewey and the people behind him of being fascists, okay . Its really over the top. And even his advisers are, like, cringing from it, but its like, attack, attack, attack. Dewey is not attacking. And people should notice things. People often see what they want to see. Theyve made up their mind. They dont need any more data or the data is irrelevant, so they know that Harry Trumans a loser. They know tom deweys the next president of the United States. So when they see these crowds getting bigger and bigger and bigger and more boisterous for harry truman, its like, eh, theyre just curious. They just want to see the president. They dont care. And when they see the crowds not so big and not so enthusiastic for tom dewey, they should say, shouldnt people want to see the next president of the United States . And they dont. They dont make the connection. The roper polling organization stops polling in midoctober. They think its in the bag. Why waste money on this . Also people see that, like, well, looks like humphreys going to win in minnesota, and it looks like they might win in West Virginia against webber, and its like, we might be in trouble with we should we might, were going to lose seats in the and they dont connect the fact that the wheels are falling off the Republican Campaign all over the place because theyve made up their mind that this is safe. A week before the election, i think its gallop has it down to five points. Thats nearly within the margin of error. And then when you add in the fact that thirdparty candidates tend to just collapse as election day comes in, Henry Wallace collapses. And those votes go to harry truman. So, election day 1948, its all festivities in new york at the hotel roosevelt. There republicans have their headquarters there, theyre ready to win. The democrats dont even put up a tote board in their headquarters in new york and washington. Its like, we dont want to know what these numbers are . Just let us die in peace. But the returns start to come in, and theyre not too bad for dewey at first. In fact, what happens is, he wins the northeast. He wins the northeast, in part thanks to Henry Wallace. He carries new york and he carries maryland over harry truman, thanks to Henry Wallace. And he does well through the northeast. Pennsylvanias a very republican state. Dewey had carried the midwest in 1944 against Franklin Roosevelt. He had not carried the northeast. He concentrates on the northeast. And in doing that, he starts to ignore the midwest. Early on in the truman reelection effort, there was a Campaign Document developed, and it said, you can safely ignore the south, which was not exactly right. Although heres a fun thought. Franklin roosevelt had won the presidency four times without needing one electoral vote from the south, without needing one of those votes. Harry trumans advisers say, you know, the farmers, the midwest, the far west, the far west is looking for irrigation projects, infrastructure. The farmer in the midwest is looking for government help. And harry truman was a missouri dirt farmer. He understood these people, okay . He goes and hes walloping the republicans on these issues and also inflation. Inflation. Hes got 7 inflation in the country, and he is walloping the congress about doing nothing about it. Now, he also has prosperity. Hes got prosperity, and theres a cold war, but its not a hot war. Nobodys dying, so hes got peace and prosperity. And what do i mean by prosperity . No 8 , 9 , 10 unemployment, no Great Depression. 3. 8 unemployment in 1948. James carville said it, its the economy, stupid. And the people who had gone through a Great Depression and a world war, this is the song really is not im just wild about harry, its happy days are here again. This is really the beginning of the 50s. This is the peace and prosperity of the 50s beginning already then. I mean, you get that bump of korea, but otherwise, very similar. So, the returns start coming in, and its starting to look like a horse race. Wheres harry . Harry goes to a luncheon in independence, missouri, his hometown. Sneaks out the back door into a waiting limousine and drives off to a pretty much vacant resort favored by politicians and gangsters outside of town, checks into a room. Nobody knows hes there. Hes hidden from the press. Hes hidden from the nation, really. Checks into a room and is determined that hes not going to follow this on a minutebyminute basis. Theres a bottle of whiskey on the night stand and a ham and cheese sandwich. And thats his Election Night celebration. He turns out the lights probably about 9 00. Every so often, his secret Service People wake him up to tell him hes won this state or hes doing well in that state. Each time they wake him up, they just annoy him. They just annoy him more and more. But finally, they give him the news which causes him to say, i think ive won. I think ive won. Lets go down to kansas city. Lets go down to headquarters. And harry truman has amazingly pulled it off. The ballroom in new york for tom dewey is an empty forlorn place. For Henry Wallace, for strom thurmond, all these things have fallen apart. But harry truman has proven one thing. As the great political philosopher Lawrence Peter barra, a fellow missourian stated, it aint over until its over. And harry truman proved that so right in 1948. And as for this talk, its now officially over. [ applause ] thank you. Weve got time for some questions, and the deal is you go to that microphone so that the people in our cspan audience can hear you and i will attempt to evade your questions. Any takers . Its most unusual. Oh, we have one. Go right up there. Speak into this . Yes. Your book contains a lot of quotes from harry truman that are blatantly antisemitic and antiblack. Absolutely. So, how do you square that harry truman im sorry. Talk into the mike. Talk into the mike . Okay. Yeah, thats actually just going to cspan, so speak up. Okay. Pretend youre me. Start all over . Go ahead, yeah. Your book has a lot of antisemitic quotes from harry, antiblack quotes. How do you square that harry truman with the harry truman that recognizes israel, that pushes for a progressive civil rights plank . Yeah, people are complex. People are complex and they have really different parts of them and they see Different Things differently at different times. Harry trumans partner in the haberdashery was a guy named jacobson. So he has a very Good Relationship with jacobson. His motherinlaw, trumans motherinlaw, who he did not have a great relationship with, was so antisemitic, she wouldnt allow jacobson into the house, okay . Truman is has sympathy for the jewish people. He has sympathy for black people when they are being lynched, when they are being treated patently unfairly, but i mean, he does not, even after the presidency, hes writing in his memoirs in like 1955 this is not some private letter that he doesnt want social equality with black people. And you get into the 1960s and hes the Kennedy Campaign kind of has to hide him because hes declaring the sitin demonstrators as communists, okay . But people compartmentalize things. And i think he does that. And people are contradictory. And truman is just a spectacular example of that. And i think we cannot exclude a certain amount of political calculation in this, that Truman Truman and that document i was talking about, his blueprint for reelection says youve got to hold on to the black vote up north and particularly if dewey is the nominee youve got trouble. You will lose new york, you will lose ohio you will lose period. So there is that political calculation, just as i eluded to, where hes given a lot of credit for integrating the armed services, but its usually not mentioned that a. Philip randolph has the gun to his head in the middle of this election. The southerners have gone off, theyve done all the damage when i say theyve done all the damage they can, the southern strategy, the dixiecrat strategy, is to dump the democrats off the ballots and once truman knows that hes still on the ballot in these states he knows he can pull it off in large parts of the south. Like texas and georgia but up to that point its dicey for him. So, again, people have different parts churchill, for example, churchill has some remarkably antisemitic statements and franklin d. Roosevelt who, of course, very friendly to jewish people not as its very interesting to see what he would have done with the state of israel because he was talking with the arabs just before he dies, with the saudis about well, well consult you on everything. Ive read that he was part of the board of directors which instituted the numerous classes at harvard which put in a quota system against jews. And whos really his best friend among cabinet members is morgan morgenthau. People are contradictory and harry truman is just an amazing example of it. Anyone else . Is it true that truman well, truman didnt run in 52, stevenson ran against ike that he simply he and bess simply jumped in their car without benefit of any secret Service Protection or anything and drove back to independence, missouri . Well, theres a new book on that not as new as my book but it came out about a year ago which, yes, indicates that years before i was going to do a book on this election i visited independence, missouri,